BlackRock 全球市場發展主管 Samara Cohen：資產代幣化的未來與挑戰

0:00市場結構大變革

0:00大家今天過得如何？謝謝，謝謝。只有一個人回應，好啦，感謝。大家應該要更興奮一點才對。今天我們邀請到 Samara Cohen，她不只是 BlackRock 全球市場發展主管，也是我最喜歡聊市場的人之一。Samara，歡迎你。謝謝 Jason，我很高興來到這裡。How's everyone doing today? Thank you, thank you. One person. All right, good. Thank you. Yes, need more of that. Well, you guys should be excited. We have Samara Cohen, who is both the global head of market development at BlackRock and also just one of my favorite people in this world to talk to. So, yeah, really excited about this. So welcome, Samara. Thank you, Jason. I'm excited to be here. Yeah.

0:23我很想聽聽你對現在市場結構的看法。你對全球市場結構、預測市場、加密貨幣、股票等各種資產的整合有很深的見解。你怎麼看現在市場結構的變化？I'd love to get your take on, you have one of the most interesting minds when it comes to just global market structure and how all these things, prediction markets, crypto, equities, everything is coming together. I'd love to get your, like, macro view on just what is happening with market structure today.

0:41我今天非常興奮，因為我剛從歐洲回來，去了巴黎和布魯塞爾。我認為接下來六到十二個月，市場結構和設計的決策，會影響未來十年甚至更久的全球資本市場格局。而且我不只是說數位資產或加密貨幣，而是整個資本市場，包括誰能參與、怎麼參與，以及可投資的範圍有多大。So I'm incredibly excited to be here today because I just got back from a week in Europe. I spent time in Paris and in Brussels, and I really think that the next six to 12 months in decisions that are being made around market structure and market design are going to inform the shape of global capital markets for the next decade or more. And I'm not just talking about digital assets and crypto. I'm really talking about the capital markets, what they are, who accesses them, and how, you know, broad the investable universe is.

1:27因為像區塊鏈和 AI 這些新科技，讓市場結構的決策變得很重要。歐洲現在積極整合市場，希望提升全球競爭力、創造更多資本形成。你們昨天也聽到很多重要的政策和監管意見。美國這邊，我從沒看過監管機構這麼一致地推動資本市場發展，不只是針對數位資產，而是整個公開和私有市場結構。Because as a function of new technologies like blockchain and also AI, there are a lot of really big market structure decisions being made around the integration of European markets as Europe seeks to increase its competitiveness globally and create more capital formation. And of course, like you guys heard from several really critical policy and regulatory minds yesterday, and the U.S., I've never seen kind of such alignment across regulators in terms of moving forward U.S. capital markets, again, not just specific to digital assets, but broad public and private market structure, and so.

2:13監管與市場的挑戰

2:13這一切同時發生，這很令人興奮，但同時也極其複雜。我想對在座各位說，我事先有問過Jason，像是：「這裡的觀眾是誰？我是在跟誰說話？」我認為你們所擁有的凝聚力量，以及Blockworks所具備的凝聚力量，有一件非常有幫助、也非常重要的事，就是你們其實是市場生態系中不同部分的混合體。而你們在這個時刻能夠一起合作的能力，我認為真的會影響到我們是否能夠打造出可以擴展的東西。All of this is happening at the same time, which is exciting, but it's also extremely complex. And I think for all of you, and I asked Jason beforehand, like, who's in the audience here? Who am I talking to? I think one of the things that's really helpful and really important about the convening power that you have and that, you know, Blockworks has is that you guys really are a mix of different parts of the market's ecosystem, and your ability to kind of, you know, work together in this moment, I think is really going to inform whether, like, we build something that scales.

2:52好，那我們來說說，你昨天提到監管機構和政策制定者，所以……看起來政策制定者和監管機構是站在我們這邊的。我們有很多動能。我們有順風。我們現在擁有的這項技術可能比以往任何時候都更好。那為什麼現在感覺好像其實沒有發揮作用？為什麼代幣價格下跌？還有，對，現在到底卡在哪裡？目前發生的事情有哪些障礙？Okay, so let's say, so you mentioned the regulators yesterday and the policymakers, so... It seems like the policymakers and the regulators are on our side. We've got a lot of momentum. We've got tailwinds. We've got this tech that's probably better than ever. Why does it kind of feel like it actually isn't working right now? Like, why are the tokens down? And why, yeah, maybe what are the hangups to what's happening right now?

3:17我會說，最大問題是我們要換個角度思考：我們應該站在哪一邊？要讓這項技術兌現承諾，我們必須站在打造強健、有韌性的市場和投資人體驗這一邊。去年 10 月 10 日那個週末，我們學到一個很重要的教訓，就是市場設計還有很多細節要補強，尤其是加密基礎設施上，因為代幣化發展速度太快了。So I guess I would say the biggest one is I would kind of reframe, like, there is a problem already. If we are talking about what side we're on, right, like, I think to make this technology deliver into its promise, we need to be on the side of building strong, resilient markets and the investor experience. And specifically, like, we had a really important learning for investor experience the weekend of October 10th, which is that, like, there are a lot of market design considerations that really need to be developed, and developed pretty quickly on crypto rails, given the pace at which tokenization is going.

3:56因為現在，你知道，有時候人們會感到驚訝。你們大概不會，但很多人常常會很驚訝，因為我們談論代幣化金融資產的頻率這麼高，實際上如果從數量級來看，加密貨幣現在大概是2.5到3兆美元左右。代幣化資產大約只有260億美元。在加密貨幣的整體規模下，這個數字非常小。但如果10月10日發生的那些事件，是在大規模金融市場代幣化的情況下發生的，那對投資人信任以及對這個領域的承諾，影響會大得多。Because right now, you know, sometimes people are surprised. You guys, you know, probably aren't, but people are often surprised, given how much we talk about tokenized financial assets, that on an order of magnitude. Like crypto is what, like 2.5, 3 trillion now. Tokenized assets are about 26 billion. Like they are tiny in the context of crypto. But if the events of October 10th had happened with tokenization of financial markets at large scale, it would have had a much broader impact on investor trust and commitment to the space.

4:31所以我認為，目前最重要的是以投資人和投資人使用體驗為核心來設計，特別是當我們開始把像股票和債券這類資產上鏈時，這正是現在還沒有真正到位的關鍵部分。And so I think right now, designing with the investor and investor experience at the center, particularly as we start to bring things like equities and bonds on chain, like that's the critical piece that isn't really in place right now.

4:45代幣化設計的關鍵學習

4:45我昨天和Robbie聊過，他是BlackRock的數位資產負責人，你們兩位都提到了10月10日。也許我們可以再深入一點，大家都知道，這個房間裡的每個人其實都在打造這些系統。所以，如果未來又出現類似的時刻，但這次是代幣化、代幣化資產已經成長了一百倍，那麼我們實際上必須確保哪些事情是做對的？我們在這裡最需要確保什麼？I spoke with Robbie yesterday, who's the head of digital assets at BlackRock, and you both brought up October 10th. Maybe taking that a step further, what do we—I mean, everyone in this room is kind of building these systems. So what do we actually have to get right so that if, you know, we have another moment like that, but, you know, tokenization, tokenized assets have grown 100x, what is the thing that we need to make sure that we get right here?

5:08所以我認為，首先，單就10月10日來看，並且把市場上發生的每一個時刻都當作學習機會，這點非常重要，而且未來還會有更多這樣的時刻。我們必須從中學習。從我的角度來看，10月10日最大的學習重點之一，就是我所謂的「預言機問題」，也就是我們要如何確保市場參與者能在正確的時間取得正確的價格資訊，讓他們能夠採取行動。在價格來源和數據方面，當天出現了多個失誤點，這導致了10月10日一連串的連鎖事件。因此，確保估值透明的機制，是最重要的首要任務。So I think that first of all, just looking at October 10th and taking every moment that happens in markets, and there will be more, and learning from it is critically important. And one of the key learnings, probably from my perspective, the biggest learning from October 10th is what I think of as the oracle problem, is the mechanism by which we ensure market participants have the right price information at the right time so they can act. And there were multiple points of failures in terms of pricing sources and data. That led to kind of the cascading events that happened on October 10th. So that, you know, mechanisms for valuation clarity is, like, first and foremost.

5:51另一個重點是參與者的廣度。特別是當我們把更多傳統金融（TradFi）帶上鏈時，10 月 10 日事件也暴露出很多加密原生投資人應該多元化，不要只壓在加密，應該也要有債券、股票等資產。確保有足夠的流動性提供者能同時參與兩個生態系，維持價格一致，這也是關鍵。And another big one is really the breadth of participation. So one of the things I'm really hopeful for is, especially as we bring more of TradFi on-chain, because I think right now the other thing that's, I think, been exposed by the October 10th events is that there are actually a lot of crypto-native investors that should be more diversified out of crypto into things like, you know, bonds and equities. And so, in terms of ensuring that you have enough liquidity providers who can participate in both ecosystems so that they can maintain price alignment. That is the other critical piece.

6:32代幣化股票與產業語言

6:32你怎麼看代幣化股票？所謂代幣化股票是什麼？像我在 Coinbase 或 Robinhood、Kraken 上看到 Apple 股票，Kraken 會顯示 K Apple 之類的代號。這些其實是什麼？What do you think about tokenized stocks? Define tokenized stocks. I go on Coinbase or Robinhood or Kraken and I see Apple stock and it says, I'm on Kraken, it says K Apple or something, you know, however they do it.

6:50目前在美國以外交易的股票和 ETF，大多是所謂的代幣化價格表徵（tokenized price representations）。像 Ondo、Kraken 這些公司會這樣稱呼。這些是代幣化證券，參考的是某個標的資產（ETF 或股票），但投資人要清楚，這跟直接持有股票或 ETF 的權利不一樣。對非美國投資人來說，這種方式比開國際券商帳戶容易，但權利不同。So I think what's trading right now outside of the United States with respect to equities and ETFs are what I would consider, and most of the firms who have them, like Ondo and Kraken, would call tokenized price representations. So they're tokenized securities. But they aren't the, but they reference an underlying asset, whether that's an ETF or whether that's a stock. And we're at a moment that it's really important that investors understand the difference. Now, with respect to the non-U.S. investor who, you know, wants access to a U.S. stock or ETF, that might be much easier than trying to open an international brokerage account. But it's not the same ownership rights as in the stock or in the ETF.

7:36所以我認為，作為這個產業目前的一項重要任務，就是我們必須建立一套共同語言，這樣所有這些創新才不會變成一座巴別塔，導致投資人混淆並破壞信任。你在RWA這個詞彙上輸了這場戰爭。在術語上，我確實在RWA這個詞上輸了，像這裡有更多銀行業的人，他們都知道在審慎監理的語境下，RWA代表的是完全不同的意思。但我們確實輸掉了那場戰役。So I think one of the kind of imperatives as an industry right now is we do create a common language so that all of this innovation doesn't become a Tower of Babel that creates investor confusion and undermines trust. You lost the fight on RWAs. On the terminology, I did lose the fight on RWAs, like, and there's more, like, banking people in the audience here who understand that RWA means something very different in the context of prudential regulation. But we did lose that battle.

8:09但現在還處於代幣化證券的早期階段，所以我認為這種代幣化價格表示的概念，以及你知道，了解你擁有什麼樣的所有權利、你對於你所購買的東西擁有什麼樣的贖回權利，這些都將對於擴大規模非常重要。But it's early in the days of tokenized securities, and so I think this concept of tokenized price representations and, you know, understanding what ownership rights you have, what redemption rights you have with respect to what you're buying is going to be very important to scale.

8:26ETF、代幣化與投資人需求

8:26BlackRock 的 ETF 表現最好。你們的數位資產策略是全部都放在 ETF 嗎？還是有更多？你們會花很多時間思考 ETF 以外的代幣化嗎？是鏈上還是鏈下？你們怎麼看這件事？What do you guys, when you— so obviously BlackRock, you guys have the best performing ETFs in the market right now. What do you, when you think about your digital asset strategy, is it all—Is it all ETFs? Is it all, are there more? Do you spend more time thinking about tokenization outside of the ETFs? Is it on-chain, off-chain? How do you think about this?

8:49所以我們思考如何為最廣泛的投資人群創造最佳的投資成果。而且，基本上——其實不只是基本上——我認為ETF……在過去25年來，ETF是市場上最重大的技術顛覆，正是實現了這一點。ETF讓更多投資人能夠更廣泛地進入市場，這些投資人以前可能無法接觸到多元化策略或債券市場的某些部分，而這些事情現在我們在ETF裡都已經習以為常。我認為，資產代幣化就是這個故事的下一章，而ETF的經驗對於資產代幣化來說極具啟發性。So we think about how to create the best investment outcomes for the broadest set of investors. And, like, generally—not generally speaking—like, I think ETFs... Over the past 25 years have been the most significant technology disruption in markets that has done exactly that. ETFs have brought broader access to markets to more investors who, you know, couldn't access diversified strategies or parts of the bond market and all of these things we kind of take for granted we can do right now in ETFs. I think tokenization is the next chapter in the same story, and the ETF experience is extremely instructive with respect to tokenization.

9:34所以我們持續在思考，而數據也證明了這一點，特別是當你和Robbie討論時，我們持續看到對於Bitcoin和Ethereum透過ETP包裝的承諾。但我們同時也看到來自加密原生使用者對於更廣泛投資標的的需求日益增加，像是代幣化貨幣市場基金、債券、股票和ETF，這些都能直接在他們的加密錢包中存取。因此，ETF、ETP和代幣化都是建構完整藍圖中非常重要的部分，而這個藍圖的核心，就是為更多人創造更好的成果。So we continue to think, and the numbers bear it out, especially as you talk to Robbie about, we continue to see commitment, especially to, you know, Bitcoin and Ethereum through the ETP wrapper. But we also see increasing demand from crypto natives to access a broader set of investments like tokenized money market funds, like bonds, equities, and ETFs, where they are in their crypto wallets. So ETFs, ETPs, tokenization are both really important parts of building that full picture, which is centered on just creating. Better outcomes for more people.

10:15未來：ETF 全上鏈？

10:15如果快轉幾年後，我們會不會能在 Ethereum、Solana 或其他鏈上買到所有 BlackRock 的 ETF？你覺得未來會有這樣的需求嗎？If you fast forward a couple of years, will we be able to buy all of the BlackRock ETFs on-chain, on Ethereum, on Solana, on whatever chain it is? Do you think there will be demand to buy all of the BlackRock ETFs on-chain in a couple of years?

10:30我的意思是，如果你認為每年有越來越多的資本流入鏈上。我的看法是，所有這些東西——代幣和股票——最終都會融合成一體。在五年內，我們不會再說有代幣和有股票，這些東西都會變成同一個東西。我也認為，每一年都會有越來越多的資本流入公有區塊鏈。我不知道那些區塊鏈會是哪一些，但如果你看看剛剛發表的 Visa，或者 Stripe 正在做的事情，會有更多的 GDP 進入公有區塊鏈。I mean, if you think that every year more and more capital flows on-chain. And I mean, like my thesis on all this stuff is tokens and equity, it's all just converging into one. And in five years, we won't say there's tokens and then there's equity. It's all just one thing. And I think the thesis is also that more and more capital every single year will just flow onto public blockchains. And I don't know what those blockchains will be, but I think if you look at what Visa is doing, who just presented, or And, you know, what Stripe is doing, more GDP will come onto public blockchains.

11:06是的，我認為這是正確的。我認為會有更多的GDP進入公共區塊鏈，所以問題在於這個過程發生的速度，以及需求會來自哪裡。我認為在美國和歐洲，投資人已經被現有的ETP生態系統很好地服務了。所以問題在於，究竟是什麼會真正驅使他們轉換？我認為，這可能有幾個原因。第一，鏈上存取的能力可以為他們提供ETF現有可投資範圍之外的東西。也有可能是更好的實用性，他們可以用這些投資做更多現在用券商帳戶做不到的事情。Yeah, I think that's right. I think more GDP will come onto public blockchains, and so the question is the pace at which that happens and where the demand comes from. I think in the U.S. and Europe, investors are pretty well served by the existing ETP ecosystems. So the question is, what would actually compel them to switch? And I think, you know, so it could be, number one, the ability for on-chain access to provide them something outside the existing investable universe that's available in ETFs. It could be better utility, that they could just do more stuff with those investments that they can't with a brokerage account right now.

11:48或者，也有可能是他們已經將太多的金融生活搬到鏈上，以至於他們不想再生活在兩個不同的生態系統中，而這就成為一個臨界點，讓更多活動轉移到鏈上。我不確定這個時機點會如何發展，但目前前面提到的那兩個條件還沒有達成，考量到ETP所涵蓋的可投資標的範圍。因此，我的核心論點是，我們會有一段時間觀察這些市場結構如何融合，讓投資人能夠管理更廣泛的投資組合，也讓更多投資人能夠參與其中。Or it could be that they're conducting just so much of their financial lives on-chain that they don't want to live in two different ecosystems, and that's a tipping point where more goes on-chain. I'm not sure how that timing plays out, but those first two conditions aren't there yet, given the breadth of the investable universe that ETPs cover. So my core thesis would be that we have a period of time where we see how these market structures converge so that investors can manage broader portfolios and that more investors can participate in them.

12:24Robbie 常提醒我們，像我們這些坐在 Javits Center 的人，可能最難體會代幣化對組合管理的幫助，因為美國投資人有太多進入投資市場的管道，政府和金融體系都很健全。這也是為什麼在美國解釋 Bitcoin 會比較難。Because something Robbie often reminds us of is that, like sitting here in the Javits Center, we may be the least appreciative of how tokenization can help somebody create a portfolio because, you know, in the United States, we have, like, so many on-ramps into a broad investment universe. Government works and the money works, yeah. But kind of tough to explain Bitcoin in America.

12:49美歐穩定幣與 CBDC 路線分歧

12:49當你——所以你剛剛才去了一趟歐洲。美國對於穩定幣的處理方式跟歐洲非常不一樣，對吧？歐洲現在非常專注於央行數位貨幣（CBDC）。他們有很多不同的措施，想要統一貨幣體系。美國則比較專注於像是私人穩定幣。然後還有這些代幣化存款。你怎麼看這些東西最後會怎麼結合在一起？When you— so you were just, you just had this Europe trip. So it's, it's the U.S. is approaching stablecoins very differently than Europe, right? Europe is very focused on this CBDC. They've got a bunch of different, you know, things that they're trying to unify the monetary system. U.S. is very focused on more like private stablecoins. Then there's these tokenized deposits. Like, how do you see all of this stuff coming together?

13:10當然，我承認，我自己就是個市場結構的狂熱分子，所以我對這個議題非常感興趣。但這其實有非常實際的影響，因為美國和歐洲現在正朝著非常不同的方向前進，接下來六到十二個月我們將會看到這個發展的結果。所以，美國已經發出了非常明確的聲明。在穩定幣方面，GENIUS Act 的通過是一個具有歷史意義的時刻，因為它將這個領域的規範正式寫入法條。不過，你知道，從七月開始，我們將會有符合 GENIUS 標準的穩定幣，這些穩定幣基本上會成為美國數位資產支付系統的基石。So granted, like my, like I am a market structure nerd, and so I get very interested about this. But it has very practical implications that the U.S. and Europe are going in very different directions right now, and we are going to see how this unfolds over the next six to 12 months. So the U.S. has made a very strong statement. In terms of stablecoins and the passage of the Genius Act was a historic moment in terms of codifying what this can actually look like. But, you know, starting in July, we will have Genius-compliant stablecoins that will largely be kind of the bedrock of the U.S. digital assets payment system.

13:49相反地，歐洲現在非常著重於歐元CBDC，這項計畫預計在九月上線。而且他們也在研究這個CBDC如何與代幣化銀行存款結合運作。我認為這非常有趣，因為這兩條路徑其實非常不同，而我們將會看到它們同時並行發展。Conversely, Europe is really anchoring on a euro CBDC that should be live in September. And how that works with tokenized bank deposits. And I think it's incredibly interesting that, you know, these are two very distinct paths, and we will see them play out in parallel.

14:05未來六到十二個月的觀察重點

14:05你怎麼看未來六到十二個月？雖然有 GENIUS Act，也有 CLARITY Act 和全球市場結構的討論，你能預測未來半年到一年會怎樣嗎？還是現在一切都很不確定？When you look out at the next several months, do things feel—so we had Genius, but even like clarity and just global market structure—do things, are you able to predict what the next... Six to 12 months looks like, or do you feel like now is this moment in time where everything's up in the air?

14:23我無法預測接下來六到十二個月之後會發生什麼事，但我認為很明顯的是，在接下來的六到十二個月內，你們也已經在過去二十四小時內看到相關的討論證據，我們將會看到許多新的代幣化證券和支付模式在美國上線。所以，當這些東西上線時，最重要的問題就是：它們要怎麼彼此協作？特別是，如果我們遇到像是市場壓力事件時，會不會出現市場錯位的情況？I can't predict what's going to happen after the next six to 12 months, but I think it's pretty clear that over the next six to 12 months, and you guys have seen evidence of this discussed over the last 24 hours, we are going to see a number of new models of tokenized securities and of payments coming online in the United States. So the big question that will be answered as they come online is how do they work together? Particularly, should we have like a stressed market event? Are there dislocations?

14:55有沒有什麼事情是真的會在廣泛層面上削弱市場參與，或者說，投資人實際上覺得最有用的是哪些東西？我認為，像剛才Austin那場關於公有區塊鏈實用性的重要性的討論就很有意思。我覺得接下來六到十二個月，真正重要的一件事會是那些採用開放標準的模型，如何自我改進，來實現互通性、強化價格一致性，以及聚合流動性。而這些事情的發展，會決定十二個月之後市場的樣貌。但我認為，隨著這些東西在市場上線，接下來會是一段非常積極且重要的學習期。Are there things that really, like, undermine on a broad basis participation in the markets, or What are the things that investors actually find the most useful? And I thought the, you know, there was a session earlier with Austin around the importance of, you know, the utility of public blockchains. And I think something that will be really important over the next six to 12 months is how the models that have open standards. self-improve, to create interoperability, to enforce price alignment, and to aggregate liquidity. And how that plays out will define what things look like after that 12-month period. But I think it's going to be a pretty period of aggressive and important learning as these things come online in markets.

15:52市場指標與預測市場角色

15:52你有沒有特別關注哪些重要指標？我認為現在最有產品市場契合度的是代幣化國庫基金，資產累積情況很值得觀察。還有從試點到正式上線的進展，像 DTC、Nasdaq、Coinbase 都有重要宣布。最後是市場健全度指標，例如斷裂發生在哪、為什麼發生，以及有多少流動性提供者被激勵投入，讓市場更健康。Are there any important signposts that you're looking out for? I think that the how assets accumulate, particularly where we see the biggest product-market fit right now, are in kind of tokenized treasury funds. So asset accumulation there. Actual movement from pilot to production. There have been a number of really important announcements across the DTC, Nasdaq, Coinbase, and how asset gathering works across these different models. Again, all of this is going to unfold in the next six to 12 months. And then lastly, like these measures of market integrity, like where are the dislocations, why are they occurring, and how many liquidity providers are incentivized by the ecosystem to invest more to make better, healthier markets?

16:42我認為其中一個最大的——我們已經談了很多關於代幣化，因為這就是這場討論的主題，但我們還沒有談到預測市場。我不知道你是否想談這個，但我確實認為這是市場結構中最大的一個領域之一，這裡有很多，我認為，是有意義且良性的辯論，比如說，預測市場到底好不好，也許他們不應該在體育賭博領域做這麼多？他們做這些事情，並且可能會蠶食FanDuel和DraftKings的市場，這真的完全是好事嗎？他們需要——是Kalshi嗎？還是Polymarket？I think one of the biggest—we talked a lot about tokenization because that's what this is about, but we haven't talked about prediction markets. I don't know if you want to go there at all, but I do think that's one of the biggest areas of market structure where there's a lot of, I think, debate and good debate about, you know, should they be—are prediction markets good, but maybe they shouldn't be doing so much in sports gambling? Is it all good that they're doing all this stuff and they're going to eat away at FanDuel and DraftKings' lunch? Do they need to be—is it Kalshi? Is it Polymarket?

17:14有點像是，你怎麼看待預測市場的角色？所以我認為事實是——預測市場正在吸引資產。它們越來越被視為一種信訊來源。我的意思是，現在有90%的預測市場都跟體育有關，但如果我們看看大約10%跟金融市場相關的部分，那也是很有影響力的。Kalshi 和 Polymarket 的數據已經可以在 Bloomberg 終端機上取得。像 ICE 也做了大筆投資。Tradeweb 也有發佈相關消息。所以我認為，預測市場整合進金融生態系，這件事是大家要注意並且需要回應的。Kind of like, what's the—where do you see the role of prediction markets? So I think the facts are—Prediction markets are asset gathering. They're increasingly being looked at, you know, as an information source. I mean, 90% of them right now are like sports related, but if we look at the 10-ish percent that is financial markets related, it's significant. Kalshi and Polymarket feeds are available on the Bloomberg terminal. Like, ICE made a big investment. You know, Tradeweb made an announcement. So I think the fact is the integration of prediction markets in the financial ecosystem is something to be aware of and to respond on.

17:57當然，還有監管方面的議題，像是CFTC在預測市場上的廣泛參與。投資人如何在建立他們的多元投資組合時考慮預測市場，因為這些預測市場和其他資產是在同一個市場中運作。因此，作為一種設計機制，以及作為基礎設施層，我認為預測市場正越來越成為金融樣貌的一部分。And of course, there's the regulatory side as well with the, you know, CFTC's kind of breadth of engagement with prediction markets. So how investors consider Prediction markets, in building their broad portfolios, they are living in the same markets as these other assets. So as a design mechanism, they are going to be, and as an infrastructure layer, I think they're increasingly part of what finance looks like.

18:31給金融機構的建議與未來贏家

18:31我知道我們時間快到了。現場有很多人，我看著大家，看到很多我認識的人，像是不同的創辦人，可能曾經試著向BlackRock這種公司或其他金融機構推銷產品，還有一些金融機構的高層，他們正試圖推動自己的數位資產策略。你有沒有什麼建議或指引，針對你剛才提到的未來12個月可能的情況，給大家一些建議或指引，讓大家知道在接下來的12個月應該怎麼布局？I know we're coming up on time here. There's a lot of folks in the room who I'm just looking at, I see a lot of people I know, like different, yeah, different founders who maybe try to sell to the BlackRocks of the world or other financial institutions, execs at financial institutions who are trying to move their digital asset strategy forward. Do you have any maybe advice or guidance for, you know, taking what you said about what the next 12 months could look like, just advice or guidance for how people should kind of play the next 12 months?

18:56是的，我認為在接下來的12個月內，贏家會具備三個重要特質。第一，他們會積極採用開放式架構，而且他們不會把建立一個只能在單一孤島中運作的基礎設施當作是一個產品。能夠在整個生態系中運作的基礎設施才是一個市場。因此，能夠跨生態系運作的基礎設施提供者將會勝出。將韌性、波動性機制以及像是防護措施這些東西放在策略的最前線，這樣的做法會贏。任何沒有這些機制的人，在這些不可避免會發生的壓力事件中都會被淘汰。最後，我認為真正以投資人使用體驗為核心來設計產品也很重要。這也是為什麼ETF能夠擴展到大約14兆美元的原因。Yeah, I think the winners in the next 12 months will have three big characteristics. One is that they lean into open architecture and that they don't view, like, creating a, you know, infrastructure that works in a silo is a product. Infrastructure that works across an ecosystem is a market. So infrastructure providers that can work across an ecosystem will win. Putting resilience, volatility mechanisms, and safeguards like front and center of a strategy will win. Anybody who doesn't have that will get wiped out in these stress events, which will inevitably occur. And then I think lastly, it is really designing around the investor experience. That's why ETFs scaled to, you know, $14 trillion.

19:56他們，你知道，把投資人放在核心位置，雖然ETF套利是由一個交易生態系統所推動的投資，但最終收益還是回到投資人身上，這也是為什麼ETF是一種技術規模化的工具。在代幣化方面，情況也將會是一樣的。They, you know, put investors at the center, and while ETF arbitrage encouraged investment by a trading ecosystem, ultimately the gains accrue to investors, and that's why ETFs is a technology scale. The same is going to be true in tokenization.

20:09謝謝 Samara，感謝你今天的分享。謝謝大家！Yeah. Samara, thank you so much. Thanks for having me. Yeah. Thanks, everybody.