Parag Khanna：如何從人口流動找出有潛力的地點？
Where to Find Alpha on the Map
- Parag Khanna AlphaGeo
影片
影片與逐字稿來源：Network State Podcast （CC BY）
場次摘要
AlphaGeo 的 Parag Khanna 介紹團隊如何把國家治理、基礎建設與人口移動等資料，整理成選址參考。他認為，年輕人才自願流入是一個值得留意的訊號，並說團隊分析了約 2.1 萬組跨境流向，再依人群類型與政策變化細分。他所說的「alpha 地點」是尋找潛在機會的分析概念，不是保證投資報酬。
值得記下的 5 件事
- 比較國家需要整合不同面向的資料，單一排名不足以交代選址條件。
- Global Dynamism Signals 整合逾百組資料，讓選址條件依需求調整。
- 年輕人才自願流入，可以作為觀察社會吸引力的一項指標。
- 約 2.1 萬組人口流向，進一步區分投資人、專業人才、學生與觀光客。
- 都市化仍會吸收人口增長，選址需要看清新增人口實際流向。
逐字稿
開場
謝謝。午安。我十幾歲時，每個像我這樣的 geek 會轉向哪個來源，把從沒去過的各國資訊盡量讀完？Thank you. Good afternoon. So when I was a teenager, what one source did every geek like me turn to to devour all of the information we could consume about all of the countries in the world that we had never been to?
CIA World Factbook。夠資深還記得嗎？好。你可能知道今年稍早停更了。但過去十年網站流量大概降很多，因為大致已被幾百種排名與資料集取代，號稱能解釋The CIA World Factbook. Who remembers that, if you're old enough? Okay, good. So you may or may not know that it was actually discontinued earlier this year. But over the last decade or so, I'm sure its web traffic declined pretty significantly because it's more or less been replaced by a vast plethora of hundreds of different rankings and data sets purporting to
各國政治穩定、經濟成長、吸引力、空氣品質。結果是認識地方像盲人摸象，每個人似乎以為懂整體，其實沒有完整圖像。explain the political stability, the economic growth, attractiveness, air quality of every country in the world. But the result of that is that learning about places becomes like the blind men feeling the elephant, right? Everyone, each person, seems to pretend or think that they understand the whole, but they really don't get the full picture.
我們試著用多種努力彌補對地點全面認識的不足。其中一項就是去年發布的 Periodic Table of States。So we've tried to overcome this deficit in knowledge, comprehensive knowledge about places, through a number of efforts. One of them you're seeing here was called the Periodic Table of States that we released last year.
國家週期表與小國
我們精選約 30 組非常具體的資料集，回答國家品質、實力、國家能力、穩定度等根本問題，這些才是你在找的。What we did there was to curate about 30 very specific data sets that really help answer fundamental questions about the quality of a state, its strength, its state capacity, its stability, the things that really do matter, the things you're looking for.
拿掉「大國特權」後，我們得到新結論。例如東亞 Japan、Korea 的表現與美國、加拿大、德國等西方社會一樣好或更好。And when you strip away the privilege of size, we came to some novel conclusions. For example, countries in the East, like Japan or Korea, fare every bit as well or better than a number of Western . .
Singapore、Switzerland、Sweden 等小國也符合所有關鍵條件。要回答的是：決定去哪、在 network state 設節點時，什麼能幫你更認識一個地方。societies like the U.S. or Canada or Germany. And small countries like Singapore, Switzerland, Sweden tick all of the right boxes as well. So trying to answer the questions, you know, what really helps you get to know a place better as you're deciding where you want to go and set up a node in your network state.
現在我們做了不只分析更豐富、更全面，而且可互動的工具，可依你在地點要找什麼調整查詢。這叫 Global Dynamism Signals，一百多組資料集，約 20 類，覆蓋全球各國。Now we've created a tool that's not just analytically richer and more comprehensive, but also interactive, so you can tailor your queries accordingly depending on what you are looking for in a place. This is called the Global Dynamism Signals. It's more than a hundred data sets that really speak to, that cover about 20 different categories and cover every country in the world.
我們特別聚焦前瞻指標：基礎建設品質、投資水準、創新、電網可靠度、可負擔性、氣候韌性、移民趨勢。現在可以依對你最重要的事排名、篩選、比較。And we've specifically focused on really forward-looking indicators like infrastructure quality, investment levels, innovation, the reliability of the electricity grid, affordability, climate resilience, migration trends. So now you can rank, screen, filter, compare places according to what really matters to you most of all.
移民數據與 AI 追蹤
我提到移民。上一本書 Move 裡我說這是終極社會生物標記：量移民。若國家吸引年輕人才，一定做對了什麼。Now, I mentioned migration, and in the last book I wrote, called Move, I said this is really the ultimate societal biomarker: measuring migration. If your country is attracting young talent, then it must be doing something right.
年輕有才的人自願來你的社會。若國家在流失人才，一定做錯了不少事。但移民資料 notoriously 滯後，卻能指向哪些國家社會健康。Young, talented people are voluntarily coming to your society. If, however, your country is losing talent, then you must be doing any number of things wrong. But migration data, which helps us point the way to figure out which countries are really healthy societally, is notoriously laggy.
聯合國還在更新 2023、2024 資料。所以我們用 brute force 與 AI 捕捉截至 2025 年底全球 200 國跨境人流。The United Nations is still updating data from 2023 and 2024. So what we did is to apply some real brute force and AI to capture all international flows of people through the end of the year 2025, among all 200 countries in the world.
共 21000 對流向，再按 wealthy investor、skilled professional、student、tourist 細分。有趣的部分：我們還加 AI 層，即時追蹤各國政策變動以吸引這些族群入境。So that's 21,000 pairs of flows, and it's further broken down by wealthy investors, by skilled professionals, students, and tourists. So now comes the fun part. We also add an AI layer that tracks all policy changes that all countries are undertaking in real time to attract those specific segments into their borders.
again，沒有比追蹤年輕人用腳和錢包投票更能判斷國家會贏還是輸。結論提醒：終極 megatrend 其實是城市化，是哪些地點會贏得未來的最好預測指標。So again, there's no better way to know if a country is going to win or lose than by tracking those flows of young people as they vote with their feet and their wallets. So let me conclude with a reminder that the ultimate megatrend is actually urbanization. It's the best predictor of which places are going to win the future.
城市化與地圖 alpha
很多人 envision 在全球推出新 special jurisdiction、經濟特區。我描繪過會因氣候變遷被改造的 exotic 地理。但現實是幾乎所有人口成長發生在城市、流向城市。我們同時接近人類峰值 95 億，世界 12000 座城市，11995 座已存在。A lot of people have visions of launching new special jurisdictions and special economic zones around the world. I've portrayed exotic geographies that I feel are going to be terraformed through climate change. But in reality, almost all population growth occurs in cities and to cities. We're simultaneously reaching peak humanity, nine and a half billion people, and there's 12,000 cities in the world, and 11,995 of them already exist.
理解額外人口流向哪裡，會幫你決定未來想投資、押注的地點。我今天要回答的是地圖上哪裡找 alpha。答案在這類 data science 工具，但最重要的是你們自己。So understanding where that additional population is flowing is going to help you decide what are the places you want to invest in and bet on in the future. The question I set out to answer today is where to find alpha on the map. And the answer lies in data science tools like this, but most importantly, with yourselves.
確保你在 alpha 地點，並用你的決策與投資讓它成為 alpha。想了解更多請看 AlphaGeo。謝謝。Make sure that you are in an alpha location and contribute to making it so through your own decisions and investments. So to learn more, check us out at AlphaGeo. Thank you.
