Paxos：法幣的下一站，會是穩定幣？

0:00Paxos 的起點：金融海嘯之後

0:00Chad，Balaji。好笑的是，你本身就是個 Chad，還真的叫 Chad。Chad 在「Chad」這個詞流行之前就已經是 Chad 了。我當 Chad 的時候還沒有這個詞。沒錯，他有一副 Chad 下巴。Chad，你是 Paxos 的執行長。要不要跟大家說說你怎麼接觸到比特幣、我們怎麼在紐約認識，也就是金融海嘯那段起源故事？好啊，我們的起源故事其實沒什麼人知道。我當時是投資人，我們對金融海嘯看得很透。海嘯來臨前我們就在放空次貸，因為我們把全美國每一筆房貸都建了模型，細到郵遞區號。Chad. Balaji. So, you know what's funny is, you're a Chad, and you have the Chad. Chad was a Chad before the term Chad was a thing. There was no Chad when I was a Chad. Yes, exactly. He has a Chad jaw. Chad, you're CEO of Paxos. You also... Do you want to tell them about how you got into Bitcoin and how we met, like, you know, in New York and so on and so forth, like the early, like the financial crisis origin story? Yeah, these aren't, like, our origin story isn't well known. Yeah, I was an investor, and we did a good job at understanding the financial crisis. We were short subprime going into the financial crisis because we modeled every mortgage in the United States down to the zip code.

0:49所以我們很清楚發生了什麼事，只是一直想不出要怎麼下注。後來發現 CDS（信用違約交換）可以用很低的成本做到。走出金融海嘯之後，我大概就意識到他們會一直印鈔，事實也是如此。我真的認為，長期來看這對社會穩定會造成極大的反效果。後來我接觸到比特幣，當時一顆才 3 美分，我開始買、也開始挖。我記得跟你聯繫上，我們都覺得這東西需要一些治理，幫它凝聚共識，後來就成立了 Coin Center。對。我記得我們在辦公室開會，坐在那邊討論要怎麼把它架起來，然後找到了 Jerry Brito。And so we knew exactly what was happening, and we just couldn't figure out how to express it. And we realized CDS was the way you could do it very cheaply. And coming out of the financial crisis, I kind of realized they were just going to keep printing money, which is what they've done. And I really thought that was, you know, ultimately going to be enormously counterproductive to, like, the stability of society. And I came across Bitcoin. It was at three cents, and I started buying it and mining it. And I remember connecting with you, and we were like, well, you know what? This thing needs some governance to be able to help it form, like, a cohesiveness, which led to Coin Center. Yep. And I remember having, like, meetings in our office, sitting here talking about, how can we, like, set this up and found Jerry Brito?

1:39那大概是 13 年前的事。比所有監管討論都早得多，算是先遣部隊裡的先遣部隊。那時還沒有 Ethereum。對，還沒有 Ethereum。這就知道我們有多早。什麼都還不存在，只有比特幣，沒有人在聊別的東西。沒錯。還有另一個人，Alex Morcos，也是華爾街出身，你認識他嗎？他也在 Coin Center。對，他是好朋友。有趣的是，最懂華爾街的那群人，往往也最懂比特幣、懂為什麼需要比特幣。很奇怪，一個領域裡最頂尖的人反而對顛覆最開放。比如 Goldman 其實比其他大銀行更願意接受比特幣，對吧？And that was, like, 13 years ago. I mean, that was way before all the regulatory — like, that was the advance scouts of the advance scouts. Pre-Ethereum. Pre-Ethereum, yes. Yeah, I mean, that tells you how early we were. Yeah. It's like nothing else existed. It was just Bitcoin, and nobody else talked about anything else. That's right. And so, you know, another person, Alex Morcos, was also, you know, Wall Street — you know him? He's also in Coin Center. Yeah, he's a good friend. Yeah. And so it's funny, the guys who understood Wall Street the best often understood Bitcoin, the need for Bitcoin, when guys who were only — it's weird, the very best within a space are open to disruption, like... Goldman was actually more open to Bitcoin than other of the major banks and so on and so forth, right?

2:25對。你對這點可能有些想法。2008 年之後，很多華爾街的人看到紓困之類的事，變得很憤世嫉俗。雖然《大賣空》把下注的過程浪漫化了，但其實就算早知道房貸危機會來，很多人也很難真的拿到錢，對吧？沒錯，我記得有些日子我會轉頭跟合夥人說：「我不知道我們今天到底有沒有賺錢，因為根本沒人會付擔保品給我們。」那是非常驚險的時期。當時做的一些決策我大概能理解，換作是我會用不同方式處理，不過那是另一回事。後來我們接觸到比特幣，我看到兩件事：第一，區塊鏈是重建金融體系的機制；第二，它是一種價值儲存。Yeah. Maybe you have a thought on that. Like, a lot of Wall Street guys got very cynical after 2008 and saw the bailouts and so on, because even though The Big Short romanticizes the process of making those wagers, it was very hard for a lot of people to get paid out, even if they knew the mortgage crisis was going to come, right? Well, and — I mean, I remember there would be days where I would turn to my partner and I'd be like, I don't know if we made any money today because no one's going to pay us the collateral, right? You know what I mean? It was like, you know, very harrowing times. And, you know, I kind of understand some of the decisions that were made. I think that I would have done it differently, but that's neither here nor there. Now, when we came across Bitcoin, what I saw was one, the blockchain as a mechanism to replatform the financial system, and two, a store of value.

3:11這基本上就是押注問題的解方。問題在於經濟過度金融化，導致印鈔，而過度金融化又透過龐大的債務製造不穩定。順帶一提，現在債務佔 GDP 的比例跟金融海嘯時一樣高，差別只在於大家都知道可以靠印鈔脫困。2008 年的時候，沒人知道我們會不會靠印鈔脫困。說起來很有趣，現在利率簡直要飛上天了，10 年期、20 年期、30 年期都是，殖利率的波動非常非常誇張。另一方面，唯一能抵銷的力量是穩定幣，Paxos、Tether、USDC 都在創造美元需求。And that was essentially a way to be long the solution to the problem. And the problem was the over-financialization of the economy that was leading to money printing, and it was the over-financialization that was creating instability through enormous amounts of debt. Which, by the way, we still have the same amount of debt as a percentage of GDP that we did during the financial crisis. It's just that everybody knows you're going to print your way out of it. Nobody knew if we would print our way out of it in 2008. Well, so, you know, it's funny. Now I think, you know, rates are just going to the moon. You know, 10-year, 20-year, 30-year. You're seeing this stuff — crazy, crazy movements in yields. How long — I mean, on the other hand, the one counterbalance to that is stablecoins, with Paxos and, you know, Tether and USDC all providing demand for dollars.

4:01債務泡沫與印鈔

4:01你覺得美國公債和其他西方國家的債券接下來會怎麼走？會不會出現災難性的，或者說不上災難，我甚至不該說前所未見，就說是非常、非常快速的升息。你覺得會發生什麼事？要聊利率可以講很久，我不想讓大家無聊。當然。不過一般來說，10 年期或 30 年期的利率大概會貼近名目 GDP 成長率。名目 GDP 現在成長 7.5%，所以我不覺得利率有那麼高。喔，有意思，你覺得沒問題？我是不覺得經濟承受得了更高的利率。但以一個高速成長的經濟體來說，這樣的利率不算高。我記得是 Paul Kedrosky 寫過，泡沫有四種。Where do you think things are going to go in terms of, you know, treasuries and other Western bonds, you know, having these catastrophic — or maybe it's not catastrophic. Let's call it, you know — I shouldn't even say unprecedented. Let's call it a very, very rapid rise in rates. What do you think is going to happen? Yeah, I mean, there's a — you could spend a lot of time talking about rates, and I don't want to bore anybody. Sure. But normally, you have, like, a 10-year or 30-year trade at what nominal GDP is. Nominal GDP is growing 7.5%. I don't really think rates are that high. Oh, interesting. You think it'll be okay? Well, I don't think that the economy can handle higher rates. But for a fast-growing economy, these aren't high rates. And I think it was Paul Kedrosky who wrote about this and said there's four types of bubbles.

4:49政府泡沫、債務泡沫、科技泡沫和房地產泡沫。現在四種全都有。上一次四種同時出現，大概是鐵路熱潮，或許還有南海泡沫，對吧？所以這會是史上最大的泡沫，因為大家都知道政府會印鈔。這個泡沫能長到非常巨大，唯一能讓它停下來的，是大量資金被吸進去，導致 10 年期和 30 年期公債重新定價。這時經濟就會開始亮起警示燈，因為資金就那麼多，而現在投入 AI 的資金佔 GDP 的比例前所未見。這不代表 AI 是假的。泡沫都是建立在真實之上的。There's government bubbles, there's debt bubbles, there's technology bubbles, and there's real estate bubbles. We have all four right now. And the last time you probably had all four was like the railroad boom and maybe like the South Sea Bubble, right? So, like, this is going to be the mother of all bubbles because everybody knows the government's going to print money. So the size that this bubble can get is so huge, and the only thing that will stop it is so much capital getting sucked in that the 10-year and the 30-year reprice. And so that's where you start to get into, like, blinking warning signs around what's going on in the economy, because there's only so much capital, and the amount that's being poured in is unprecedented as a percentage of GDP into AI. It doesn't mean it's not true. Bubbles are based on truth.

5:36人不笨。房市泡沫也是如此。南海泡沫是關於新大陸，那可是史上最大的機會，是真的。但正因為是真的，才能吹出史上最大的泡沫。這很有意思，我來說說我怎麼看。我也想聊聊 Paxos。一方面是西方法幣，就算你不覺得利率水準太高，你大概也同意利率的變動非常不尋常吧？對，變得很快，經濟其實消化不了這種變動。一般來說，10 年期利率動得這麼快，一定有東西會壞掉。就是這樣，好。我還滿驚訝的。Like, people aren't stupid, you know what I mean? Like, housing bubble. The South Sea Bubble was about the New World. I mean, that's the greatest opportunity ever. I mean, it's true, right? But that's what allows you to have the biggest bubble of all time. So it's interesting because, you know, here's how I'm seeing things. I want to talk about Paxos also. But on the one hand, you have Western fiat, where even if — Even if you don't think the rates are — you have to, maybe you'd agree, the movement in the rates is very unusual. Yeah, I mean, it's pretty fast. The economy can't really digest these kind of moves. Normally, when you have a 10-year move this fast, something breaks. That's exactly — okay, fine. So that's — I was surprised to — okay.

6:25所以我確實認為有東西正在壞掉。問題不在水準，在於變動。沒錯，變動非常快。現在 Trump 又在說今年秋天要發給每個美國人 5,000 美元之類的，那就是好幾兆美元。另一方面，剛剛發生了一場數學上的奇點，我們剛才也聊到，加密演算法受到質疑，應該說是被打上問號，有些演算法可能會出問題。所以在西方法幣和加密貨幣之間，你面臨的是進退兩難，兩邊都有不確定性，對吧？然後黃金漲了又跌。So I do think something is breaking. The level's not a problem. The movement is — exactly. So the movement is very fast. And this, this is, you know, Trump is now talking about every American gets 5,000 bucks in the fall or something like that, right? Which is like whatever trillion dollars. And so on the other hand, you have this math singularity that's just happened, which we were just talking about, where encryption is being called — or, I should say, it's being called into question, but some, you know, algorithms could have issues. So crypto, you've got a devil and deep blue sea issue between Western fiat and possibly crypto, where there's uncertainties on both sides, right? And so then, and then gold is, you know, has risen and then fell, and so.

7:13怎麼保存價值：分散、黃金與比特幣

7:13所以有一種看法是乾脆分散配置，每樣都持有一點，雖然不一定拿到最大漲幅，但下檔有限。我很想聽你的看法，因為我自己有些想法。這很難說。錢其實代表的是能量，或者說購買勞動的能力，而做到這件事有不同方式。我把法幣看成未來工作的證明，把黃金看成地質上的工作量證明，把比特幣看成數學上的工作量證明。證明工作的方式不同，每多一度電完成這些工作的成本也不同。我覺得數學上的工作量證明非常有意思。And so one view is you just diversify and you have a piece of everything so that you may not have the most upside, but you are bounded on your downside. I'd love to know your view on this because I have some thoughts. Well, it's tricky. You know, money is really a representation of energy or the ability to buy work, and there's different ways to do that. I think of fiat money as proof of future work. I think of gold as geological proof of work, and I think of Bitcoin as mathematical proof of work. And so there's different ways to prove work, and the cost of doing that work on an incremental kilowatt-hour, basically. I think mathematical proof of work is very interesting.

8:02我真的相信它，但它還沒經過好幾個週期的考驗。數學會變，你得升級數學。黃金則會隨著從地底或小行星挖到多少，出現繁榮與崩盤。法幣的工作量證明也很合理，問題在於你就是忍不住。它是用債務押注未來，然後債務就越堆越多。我還有另一個角度，大致上是西方法幣對東方法幣。這只是很粗略的判斷方式。有些國家讓我很困惑，你也許有想法，比如土耳其，貨幣已經崩了，但你如果去過當地，其實還好。I really believe in it, but it's not proven over cycles. Math changes. You have to upgrade math. Gold, you know, you're going to have booms and busts by how much you can find in the ground or asteroids, whatever it is. And then fiat proof of work makes a lot of sense. The problem is you just can't help yourself. It's a bet on the future with debt, and then you just have more and more debt. So then, you know, another lens I have on this is sort of very roughly Western fiat versus Eastern fiat. And insofar, like, this is a very rough diagnostic. And there's countries that are confusing to me, and maybe you have some thoughts on them, like Turkey, for example, right, where the currency has been destroyed, but if you've been in the country, it's actually fine.

8:49至少不能說全部，但它出乎意料地運作正常，甚至還不錯，儘管貨幣已經失控。所以如果人與人之間有合作，你可以安心走在街上，那就還好，也許貨幣沒那麼重要。但如果沒有，貨幣又出問題，那就是在壞事上再疊一層壞事。不知道你對這個有沒有想法？你說。嗯，我覺得人在垂死的時候還是可能覺得自己沒事，然後就死了，對吧？抱歉。所以我不太確定這是建立社會的好方法，也就是「把貨幣毀了，感覺還不錯」，對吧？You know, or at least I shouldn't say all of it, but like it's surprisingly functional and even nice, It's surprisingly functional and even nice, despite the fact that the currency, you know, went crazy. And so, you know, if there's sort of cooperation between people, and you can kind of walk down the street and so on, that's fine. Maybe the currency doesn't matter. But if there isn't, and then the currency has issues, then you're layering a bad thing on top of an existing bad thing. I don't know if you have any thoughts on that. Like, or go ahead. Yeah. Well, I think, you know, when you're dying, you can still feel okay, right? And so, like, and then you're dead, right? Sorry. So I don't really know if that's like a great way to go about building a society, which is, let's destroy our currency and it'll feel good, right?

9:39印鈔與債券虧損

9:39這種事的問題在於，你剛才說了一件有意思的事：他們會印鈔，我們也知道他們會印。有趣的是，我想很多人，從 Dalio 到你到我，都認為那一定是最終結局，但走到那一步的過程比預期多了很多轉折。對。比如 2021 年底到 2022 年初的升息，那時他們才說通膨是暫時的、不存在之類的。那次升幅高得離譜，2021 年買進美國公債的人全都被重創。他們大概是在 1% 左右的利率買的。所有銀行都在狂買債券。It's, I mean, it's one of these things where, you know, the problem is you said something interesting earlier, which is they're going to print, and we know they're going to print. And the interesting thing about this is I think many people, you know, from Dalio to you to me, all think that's got to be the endgame, but there's been more twists and turns en route to that than were expected. Yeah. For example, like the rate hikes of, you know, late 2021, right, and early 2022, after they said inflation is transitory, doesn't exist, and so on and so forth. That was, like, this ridiculously high — you know, everybody who bought Treasuries in 2021 was just totally destroyed. They bought them at, like, 1% rates or something like that. They were being told — all these banks were binging on bonds.

10:27他們被告知利率會長期維持在低檔，而且剛經歷了大概 10 年的零利率政策和 COVID 時期的政策。所以他們在低利率時買進債券，利率一升，全都被重創。美國公債本來應該是流動性資產，對吧？大家都說：「持有到期、不要賣，就沒事。」這等於是說它們沒有流動性，你不能賣。所以全世界最有流動性的資產，不吞下巨大虧損就沒辦法交易。這套東西能撐這麼久真的很詭異，一場障眼法接著一場障眼法。我想這就是為什麼這個泡沫會成形。對，那可能是史上最大的泡沫，非常巨大。They were being told that rates are going to stay low for a long time, and they'd just been through, whatever, 10 years of ZIRP and, you know, COVID policies. So they bought these bonds at low rates, and then they all got destroyed as those, you know, rates rose. And then Treasuries, which were supposed to be the liquid asset, right? Everybody's like, oh, hold them to maturity and don't sell them and you'll be okay, which meant that they're illiquid and you couldn't sell them. So the most liquid asset in the world isn't, you know, tradable without, you know, taking some huge hit on them. So, like, lots of — it's really bizarre that the thing has gone on as long as it has with, like, shell game after shell game after shell game. And I think that's why you have this bubble that's going to form. Yeah. That can be the mother of all bubbles. I mean, just huge.

11:15房地產與實體資產的風險

11:15等著看吧，顯然還有更多。舊金山的房地產泡沫，當這些人拿著 Anthropic 或 OpenAI 的股票去買房，背了很多債，用股份做抵押借錢。還有人提出另一個觀點：這些高利率某種意義上也是通膨性的，因為有票息。它們也把大量資金注入體系，你可以說這同樣在推高物價。那在這種情況下，你覺得什麼是穩定的？當然，Paxos 是很穩定的穩定幣。但舉例來說，有一種保守派心態我並不認同，認為你需要的是槍、黃金和土地。問題是土地在哪裡非常重要。如果它在 Pacific Palisades、在藍州，或在治理很差的州，那你的房地產就只跟你所在的州一樣好。I mean, you know, just wait for, like, the — so, I mean, obviously there's more. I mean, the property bubble in San Francisco when all these guys go and buy with this Anthropic or, you know, OpenAI. A lot of debt. They're borrowing against the shares. And, you know, somebody made another point, which is that these high rates are also, in a sense, inflationary because you've got these coupons. They're injecting huge amounts of money into the system as well, and you can argue that that's also bidding up prices because ultimately, you know. But so, okay, in this, what do you think of as stable? You know, so for example, I mean, obviously, well, Paxos, very stablecoin. But for example, there's a kind of conservative mentality, which I disagree with, that says, oh, what you want is guns, gold, and land, right? And the thing is that where the land is really matters, because if it's in the Pacific Palisades, if it's in a blue state, or if it's in a badly managed state, then your real estate is only as good as your state.

12:11如果那個州很糟，你其實並不真正擁有那塊房地產。它可能被扣押、被課稅、被怎樣都有可能，你也帶不走。地點、地點、地點。地點、地點、地點，其實就是法域、法域、法域。第二，黃金沒辦法通過金屬探測器之類的。其實黃金不會觸發金屬探測器。不會嗎？不會。好，那講精確一點，就說你沒辦法帶它通過機場的各種安檢。對。人們最想要黃金的時候，其實正是運送黃金風險最高的時候，因為如果某個法域的金價飆漲，基本上代表其他東西正在崩壞，運送也就更不安全。And if the state is bad, you don't actually own the real estate. It can be seized, it can be taxed, it can be all this stuff. You can't take it with you. Location, location, location. Location, location, location. And then, you know, that's jurisdiction, jurisdiction, jurisdiction. And then number two, gold, you can't take it through a metal detector and so on and so forth. So, you know, at the time that — Actually, it won't set a metal detector off. It won't? No. Okay. Well, let's say, I mean, more precise. Let's say you can't take it through whatever airport screening stuff there is. Yeah, right. So. At the moment that people want gold is actually when gold is the most risky to transport, you know, because if the gold price has skyrocketed in a jurisdiction, then basically other things are breaking and it's less safe to transport.

13:00所以價格最高的時候，正是安全性最低的時候，對吧？至於槍，很多人以為美國會出現藍波式的情境，但我隨口說個想法：根本沒有所謂的私人保全。如果你只是請一個人站在旁邊，也許能擋住有人衝向你，但他沒辦法真正守住周界、確保所有人都卸除武裝。只有公共安全，對吧？所以對我來說，真正安全的是移動能力，第二本護照比第一間房子重要得多。還有靈活度，也就是能遠端做事、遠端工作之類的，再加上加密貨幣，這才是真正的安全組合。And so the time that the price is up is the time the security is way down, right? And then guns, I mean. Many people think there's going to be some Rambo kind of thing in America, but, you know, actually, what I mean, the thing about this is, here's just a riff. There's no such thing as private security, because, you know, if you just have like a guy standing around, maybe they can stop somebody from rushing you, but they can't actually enforce a perimeter and make sure everybody's disarmed there and so on and so forth. There's only public security, right? So for me, what I think is safe is mobility, like second passport is much more important than the first home. I think agility in the sense of, like, being able to do things, you know, remote and remote work and so on, and then cryptocurrency or something like that, like that's actually the safety package.

13:57流動性、價值儲存與可攜性

13:57想聽聽你的想法。你需要流動性。對。還有價值儲存。可攜性。可攜性，很接近，對。對我來說，比特幣提供了這些。美元提供的是不同的東西，美元給你流動性和可花用性，它也有可攜性，但它不會相對任何東西升值，頂多相對其他法幣。所以你需要一個大家願意收的東西。隨著時間過去，所有東西都會變得可互換，因為全都會上鏈，所以沒差。但我們現在處於一個過渡期，穩定幣極其重要，而且它以美元支撐有充分理由。不過我不認為這是永久的。I'd like to know your thoughts. Yeah, you need liquidity. Yep. And store of value. Portability. Portability, very similar, yes. Yeah, and I mean, to me, Bitcoin provides that. A dollar provides something different. Dollar is giving you liquidity and spendability. It's portable too. But it's not going to appreciate in value versus anything, except for maybe other fiat currencies. So, you know, you need to have something that people will accept. As time goes by, everything is going to be fungible because it'll all be onchain, so it doesn't matter. But you're in an interregnum right now where stablecoins have an enormous importance, and it's backed by dollars for good reasons. But I don't think that's permanent.

14:43黃金穩定幣與美元的價值

14:43我不認為美元能維持它的價值儲存地位。這正是我想跟你聊的。你知道 Tether 有一個黃金支撐的穩定幣吧？對，我們也有。對，你們也有，太好了。我認為最終會出現一種東西，也許你們該做，我很想看到。說出來有點好笑，就是比特幣支撐的穩定幣，對吧？一種可稽核的數位貨幣作為支撐。某種意義上那有點像鏈下的，是吧？DAI 做過這件事，對吧？DAI 做過。但我覺得會是類似這樣的東西。我稍早說過的一點是，我認為比特幣會因為它的透明度，成為西方機構的儲備貨幣。I don't think the dollar is going to maintain its store of value. So this I want to talk to you about. So, you know, Tether has a gold-backed stable, if you're familiar with that, right? Yeah, so do we. Yeah, you guys do too. Okay, great. So one thing I think is going to eventually come, maybe you guys should do it. I'd love to see it. And it sounds funny to say this, but Bitcoin-backed stables, right? Where you have a digital currency that is auditable, that is backing — I mean, in a sense, that's kind of like off-chain, huh? DAI did this, right? DAI did this, right? But I feel something like this. So one of the things I was saying earlier is — I think Bitcoin becomes a reserve currency of Western institutions because of its transparency.

15:34比特幣集中託管的扣押風險

15:34絕對會，它會成為儲備資產。好，我還有另一個論點，還沒寫出來，但我有個想法，想聽聽你的看法。今天比特幣贏到一個程度，因為 ETF 的關係，它在託管機構這一層高度集中。正因如此，在西方政府真的印鈔的情境下，比特幣的名目價格會飆漲到一個程度，讓類似 6102，也就是第 6102 號行政命令那樣的比特幣扣押，我認為可能、而且大概會發生。但那些把比特幣提出去的人，你看，6102 並沒有終結黃金，它只是終結了美國的私人黃金持有。Definitely. It'll be a reserve asset. Okay, so I've got another — here's another thesis. I haven't written this up, but I've got a thought. I want your thoughts. Today, Bitcoin has won to such an extent that it is highly centralized in terms of custodians, you know, due to ETFs, right? And so because of that, in the scenario where Western governments do print, the price of BTC in nominal terms skyrockets to a point that Bitcoin seizures like 6102, Executive Order 6102, I think can and probably will happen. But everybody who's got Bitcoin out, you know, 6102 didn't end gold. It just ended private gold possession in America.

16:19然後 FDR 就能用更高的價格賣黃金，大概 35 美元，相對於 24 美元。他可以在國際市場用 35 美元賣出，對吧？所以從這些託管機構扣押比特幣是有可能的，我甚至會說，如果真的印鈔，這很可能發生。但這不一定會殺死比特幣，價格不一定會崩。價格反而可能上漲，因為世界其他地方會明白：「喔，那些國家在扣押比特幣，代表那個國家沒有比特幣就無法償債。」所以有一種很奇怪的情況：在比特幣被扣押的法域裡，持有者的部位可能歸零，但在那些法域之外持有的世界其他地方會看到它上漲，跟 6102 當年的情況類似。And then FDR could sell the gold at a higher price, 35 bucks or something like that, versus $24. He could sell it at 35 bucks on international markets, right? So the seizure of Bitcoin from these custodians is possible, I would argue even probable if the money is printed. And yet it wouldn't necessarily kill Bitcoin. It wouldn't be like the price would necessarily crash. The price might go up because the rest of the world would understand, oh, those countries are seizing it. That means it's actually like the country isn't solvent without the Bitcoin, right? So there's a weird sense where a Bitcoin, you know, a holder in a jurisdiction where Bitcoin is seized might go to zero, but the rest of the world who held it outside those jurisdictions would see it go up, similar to what happened with 6102.

17:11美國的黃金持有者被 FDR 扣押了黃金，但世界其他地方看到金價被推高。對。這還有第三個面向：像 Texas 這樣的州已經通過反扣押法，大意是持有比特幣的權利不容侵犯。所以有些州，比如紅州，比較不會扣押；其他州，也許是藍州，比較可能扣押。於是可能有人跨越州界，跑到比特幣不會被扣押的紅州。我也認為這接著會讓 Zcash 或類似 Zcash 的東西，大概就是 Zcash，成為個人的貨幣，因為它沒辦法像比特幣那樣被追蹤。對，就像白銀，大家會轉向白銀。對。所以你怎麼看這個情境？比特幣的集中化，代表它抗扣押的特性已經被侵蝕了？The gold holder in America got his gold seized by FDR, but the rest of the world saw it bid up. Yeah. And there's a third dimension to this, which is states like Texas have passed, you know, anti-seizure laws, right, where, you know, like the right to hold Bitcoin shall not be infringed. So some states, let's say red states, will be less likely to seize, and other states, maybe blue states, will be more likely to seize. So people running across borders potentially into red states where the Bitcoin can't be seized, you know. And then I think this also in turn leads to Zcash or something like Zcash, probably Zcash, becoming the currency of individuals because it can't be tracked in the same way that Bitcoin — Yeah, like silver. People go to silver. Yeah. So, okay. What do you think about that scenario, the fact that the centralization of Bitcoin means its seizure resistance property has been eroded?

18:02對，某種程度上你的成功會毀了你。沒錯。不管下一個價值儲存是什麼，政府都會想要，就像當年對黃金一樣。沒錯。所以我認為從很多方面來看，這對比特幣是好跡象。很奇怪，這是一個有趣的情境：在全球層面上數字往上走，即使個人看到的數字往下掉。說起來有趣，我是這樣想的：你記得 2010 年上映的電影《社群網戰》吧？如果你回頭重看，會發現有一樣東西明顯缺席，就是政治。政治完全不存在，片中沒有任何關於政治的東西。如果你在 2010 年說，10 年後世界上最重要的議題之一，會是美國總統能不能發推文，在 2010 年聽起來會非常超現實，對吧？Yeah, I mean, your success ruins you in a way. Yes. And so whatever the next store of value is, the government wants, just like it did with gold. That's right. Right. And so I think that's a good sign for Bitcoin in many ways. It's weird because it's an interesting scenario where number go up at a global level, even if individuals see number go down. And it's funny, you know, the way I think about it is, you remember the movie The Social Network that came out in 2010, right? So in that movie, if you go back and watch it, there's something that's remarkable by its absence, which is politics. Politics is totally absent. There's nothing about politics in there. And if you had said in 2010 that the most important issue in the world, you know, in 10 years from then would at one point be whether the president of the United States could tweet, right, that would seem surreal in 2010, right?

18:58國家與比特幣儲備

18:58還有政治人物必須靠社群媒體才能掌權。我記得 2021 年 Bukele 把比特幣定為當地的國家法定貨幣時，我寫過大概這樣的話：「10 年後，到了 2030、2035 年，會有國家需要數位貨幣，否則就會破產。就像沒有社群媒體就當不了總統一樣，到了 2030、2035 年，沒有加密貨幣你就無法償債。」我覺得這大概是真的。你怎麼看？我認為美元只是一個包裝。今天它包裝的其實是黃金、美國公債，還有一些像房貸之類的東西。你只要在包裝裡再加一種資產就好，加入比特幣。And that you needed social media to be in power as a politician. And I think that, you know, in 2021, when Bukele made Bitcoin the national reserve currency there, I remember writing something like, “Look, 10 years later, in 2030, 2035, there'll be a country which needs digital currency or else it's bankrupt. Just like you weren't the president if you didn't have social media, you're not solvent if you don't have cryptocurrency by 2030, 2035.” I think that's probably true. What are your thoughts on that? Well, I mean, I think, you know, a dollar is just a wrapper. Today it's a wrapper of actually gold, treasuries, and, you know, some other, like, mortgages. You just add another asset to the wrapper. You add Bitcoin.

19:47穩定幣會變成法幣

19:47所以穩定幣其實是更安全的美元，因為裡面只有短期美國公債。央行的美元其實包含很多其他東西。要加一些比特幣來支撐它也很容易。現在如果按市價計算，美元有三分之一是由黃金支撐的。真的嗎？對。你有 200，如果把整個 Fort Knox 拿來算的話。對，大概是 2.67 億盎司左右。拿它按市價對比聯準會的負債規模。有意思，我沒想到，喔，你是說所有黃金。全部，對，美國全部的黃金。喔，有意思。好，最後一句話交給你。有什麼大家應該去看看的？Paxos 之類的？PAX Gold。太好了，PAX Gold。我學到東西了，我會去看看。好。So, you know, stablecoins are actually a safer dollar because it's just T-bills. A central bank dollar is actually a lot of other things. And it's easy to just add in some Bitcoin backing it. Right now, the dollar is one-third backed by gold, if you mark it to market. Is that right? Yeah. You have 200 — if you took all the Fort Knox — Yeah, it's like 267 million ounces or something. So you mark it to market against how much the Federal Reserve liabilities are. Interesting. I didn't realize it was — oh, you mean all gold. All the — yeah, all the U.S. gold. Oh, interesting. Okay, good. Okay, well, I'm going to give you the last word. Anything people should check out, Paxos, anything like that? PAX Gold. Great. PAX Gold. I mean, I learned something. I'm going to check that out. Yeah.

20:36我真的認為穩定幣的故事才剛開始，因為那會成為法幣的樣子，對吧？法幣會變成穩定幣。其實它已經在變成那樣了。對，我想我同意。這就是網路接管國家的功能，對吧？非這樣不可。對，國家已經無法提供你需要的保障。對，但我們或許可以做到。好，謝謝你，Chad。I do think the stablecoin story is just starting in the sense that that's going to be what fiat is, right? Fiat becomes stablecoins. I mean, it kind of already is becoming that. Yes. Yeah, yeah, I think I agree. Which is the network taking over state functions, right? You have to. Yeah. The state's not able to provide the guarantees you need. Yeah, but we can maybe do that. Okay. Thank you, Chad.