Alliance 合夥人 Will Robinson：我們支持創業者，不是敘事

0:00開場與自我介紹

0:00謝謝大家邀請我來，感謝 MEXC 的贊助以及這場活動。我平常不會在室內戴墨鏡，不過今天是為了不讓大家看到我眼睛受傷的樣子，所以不用擔心。有一天你們會看到我真正的臉。今天我不是要特別介紹 Alliance 或我自己，不過我還是會簡單提一下。希望今天能讓你們帶走一些我們這段時間累積下來的祕訣。我想這也是為什麼我能跟這麼多厲害的人一起站在這裡。Thanks for having me. Thanks to MEXC for sponsoring and to this event. I don't normally wear sunglasses indoors, but I'm sparing you the vision of an eye injury, so don't worry about that. One day you'll see my real face. I'm here today to talk to you not about really Alliance itself or what I do, but I'll just briefly mention it. The hope is to let you walk away with some secrets that we've been building for some time. And I think that's why they even let me here alongside such incredible names who've accomplished much more than I have.

0:44Alliance 問題與創業者趨勢

0:44那我就直接切入正題。過去五年半，Alliance 一直在問創業者：「你們在做什麼？」我們是在一個不斷成長的社群裡問這個問題，現在已經有 700 位校友了。這些創業者有時只用幾句話，有時會寫一整段來回答這個問題。今天我想跟大家揭露一些 Claude 不知道、Codex 也懶得回答的事，就是：自從上一波大牛市以來，大家到底都在做什麼？你可能會聯想到各種加密敘事。So yeah, without further ado, let me walk you through this. For about five and a half years, Alliance has been asking founders what they are building. We've been asking them that in the context of a community we've been growing to now 700 alumni, and they've been answering this question as best they can with either a few sentences or even full paragraphs. What I wanted to reveal to you today is something that Claude doesn't know and Codex can't be bothered to answer with, which is what have people been building since the last big cycle, and what you might think of regarding crypto narratives.

1:30敘事的興衰與數據觀察

1:30我們來看看數據。在我們第七屆、即將進入第八屆的申請中，數據已經夠多可以跟大家分享。幾乎有 40% 的申請者想做跟 NFT 有關的東西。那時候大家都很瘋，這個敘事超級熱門，交易量和價格都很高。但你也知道，現在我們已經很少在討論 NFT，這個敘事其實已經大幅衰退了。其他敘事也有類似的情況，等下我會帶大家回顧一下。So here we go. Out of the applications we received, in what is our seventh cohort here, going to our eighth cohort, and where our data starts to get reliable enough that I can show you what we're doing, almost 40% of applicants building in crypto wanted to build with NFTs in mind. This was euphoria, a massive narrative that everybody wanted to be a part of, where volumes were high. Prices were high. And then, as you can imagine, knowing today how often we talk about NFTs, this narrative has declined somewhat dramatically. And the same happened to a few other things that I want to walk down memory lane with you with.

2:15為了讓大家更直觀，我把所有敘事都用高峰期來重新編排。最上面就是某個詞在申請中出現最多的時候，最下面則是出現最少的時候。像 DAOs，大家應該都還記得這個概念吧？對我們 Alliance 來說，這其實有點痛，因為我們以前就叫 Alliance DAO。經營一個大型去中心化自治組織真的很複雜，加上安全風險很大，這個敘事很快就從高峰掉下來了。But to make it visual, I've actually just re-indexed everything to peak, so. The top is basically when there was the most of a certain word showing up in applications, and going to the bottom of when there was the least. So, DAOs. You might remember this idea in crypto some time ago. This is a pretty painful one for us at Alliance, as we were once known as Alliance DAO. Basically, the complexity of running a giant decentralized autonomous organization. Combined with the giant security risks involved in doing one of these things, has led to a pretty steep decline, a very sharp peak on this narrative and idea.

2:56Metaverse 也是一樣。我們其實是在統計申請裡這些詞出現的頻率。也許 Metaverse 現在還活得好好的，比如 Roblox、Minecraft、Fortnite，但沒有人想再用這個詞，也沒有人會跟我們說他們在做下一個 Metaverse。Play-to-earn 這個敘事更是高峰後直接消失。Alliance 曾經跟 StepN 團隊合作過，他們做的是 move-to-earn，但最早是 Axie 帶起這波熱潮，讓大家邊玩遊戲邊賺錢。結果這個敘事現在也沒了。雖然遊戲裡還是有人賺錢、有經濟體，但 play-to-earn 這個想法已經退場了。You can see the same thing with the word metaverse. Now, remember, we're measuring the preponderance of words and applications. It's possible the metaverse is alive and well today as Roblox, Minecraft, and Fortnite. But no one wants to call it that, and certainly no one wants to tell us they're building the next metaverse or in the metaverse anymore. An even perhaps sharper and more remarkable peak was the play-to-earn moment in the history of crypto. Alliance was fortunate enough to work with the StepN team, which did a move to earn version of play to earn. But off the backs of Axie, a very exciting project that inspired the world to play video games and incorporate earnings potential, this entire narrative went very quickly to nowhere today. Now, people still are earning in games, and there's still economies in games, but play to earn as an idea has gone away.

3:57敘事的生命週期與常青主題

3:57你可以看到我們所謂的「死亡敘事」這種整體趨勢。我會猶豫要不要說這些是壞的敘事，或者說那些在這些領域裡建設的團隊不好，因為我們會發現事實其實並非如此。但其他敘事則呈現出非常不同的形態。有些敘事我會說是常青的。支付和隱私一直都是加密新創生活的一部分。人們一直想要在這個領域裡創業，並且對這些主題感到興奮。現在，隱私比較不像止痛藥，更像是維他命，而在新創圈，這其實很難賣。你需要解決那些「頭髮著火」的問題，而不是去解決那些還沒有人真的在受苦的問題。And you can see the sort of general trend of what we call, like, dead narratives. And I'll hesitate to say they were bad narratives or that the teams building in there were bad, because we'll see that that actually wasn't the case. But other narratives have had very different shapes. These are some narratives I would say are perennial. Payments and privacy have always been a part of crypto startup life. People have always wanted to build in this space and have been excited about them. Now, privacy has been less of a painkiller and more of a vitamin, and in startup land, that's a really tough sell. You need to put hair on fire problems out, not solve problems no one's really suffering from yet.

4:40所以，雖然它從來沒有真正起飛，因為我們從來沒有出現過非常大的突破性成功，你知道，也許最近 Zcash 的爆紅，未來我們會看到更多隱私相關的發展。但在支付這一塊，我們從來沒有出現過一屆完全沒有至少幾家支付公司的情況。這一直是加密貨幣非常明確的應用場景。And so while it never really took off, because we never had very big breakout successes, you know, maybe the recent Zcash explosion, we'll see more privacy happening. But payments, we've never had a cohort without at least a couple payments companies. This is a very clear use case that crypto's always had.

4:59還有一些是週期性的想法，例如預測市場。早期有 Augur，這個主題其實很久了。最近 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 這些新創又讓預測市場重新受關注。穩定幣也是，不過這個敘事有點不同。當時 Terra 和 Luna 崩盤後，「穩定幣」這個詞變成禁忌，寫在申請裡就像自曝其短，因為那時候整個產業都很尷尬。但現在穩定幣又復活了，像 Circle 準備 IPO、USDC 進入主流，這個敘事又回來了。We've had also cyclical ideas, prediction markets. For those who remember Augur in the early days, prediction markets have actually been around for a long time. But with breakouts like Kalshi and Polymarket, we've seen them come back. And stablecoins. Now, this is the opposite of the approach that Kalshi and Polymarket bringing back excitement. Here it was a tampering. So at around this point in time, Terra and Luna collapsed, and using the word stablecoin was like a shibboleth. It was like a bad word to include in your application, as you'd be lumped in with something that was sort of like the greatest embarrassment of our industry for some time. But today, stablecoins are alive and well, resurging, of course, from Circle's IPO and USDC's incredible success in the mainstream.

5:51最後一個例子是 launchpads。我們以前有 NFT launchpad，後來有 meme coin launchpad，這些都曾經紅過又消失。我相信未來還會有新敘事帶動這類產品，只是需要一個很強的催化劑。2024 年的催化劑就是 Pump.fun，現在還做得很好，也讓這個敘事復活了一下。And I think this is the last one I have: launchpads. We were launching NFTs before, we were launching meme coins there. Both sort of peaked and went away. And I'm sure they'll come back for some other narrative, but they require a sort of exciting catalyst to bring everyone into them. This 2024 catalyst was, of course, Pump.fun, right? Pump.fun is still today doing very well, and resurge that one there.

6:20案例分享：MetaStreet、Tensor、Pump.fun

6:20我想回頭再談談 NFT，除了帶大家回顧這些敘事，也想分享我們實際參與過的案例。第一個是 MetaStreet，這是我們 Alliance 很早期投資的團隊。我不是要說我們很會投資，雖然我覺得我們真的蠻會的，只是這些案例我最熟。MetaStreet 一開始做 NFT 質押借貸，成績還不錯，但 NFT 市場冷掉後，他們就轉型做 AI 硬體融資，推出 USDAI 和 CHIP token，現在發展得很好。我們很慶幸當初支持了他們，雖然他們後來完全換了賽道。But I wanted to go back to NFTs. I wanted to sort of, in addition to walking down memory lane with you and, you know, reminiscing on all these great narratives we've once had and still have today, what we sort of interacted with on this timeline. And, well, I want to talk about first MetaStreet, an early company we backed at Alliance. And look, I'm not here to say we're great at backing companies, though I think we are. I'm just—these are the ones I know about because they're the ones I got to work with. And so MetaStreet was helping people lend with NFTs. And it was a modest success, growing until it couldn't because the NFT market sort of fell away. And they pivoted to financing AI hardware with USDAI and the CHIP token, and they're doing really well today. And we're really glad we backed them, regardless of having started in a different vertical.

7:21另一個案例是 Tensor，他們在 NFT 熱潮最高點加入。當時他們做的是 NFT 價格預言機，後來發現可以做 NFT 市場，最後變成 Solana 上最大的 NFT 市場。等 NFT 敘事退燒後，他們又轉型做 Vector 和 meme coin 交易，最後還被 Coinbase 收購。這就是好創業者能在不同敘事中切換，最後都能做出成績的例子。We did again something with a company at the top of the NFT hype cycle, a team called Tensor. At the time, they were building an oracle to help people price NFTs, and then realized they could build a marketplace, and then realized they could build the biggest marketplace on Solana. And then again, narrative went away, and they pivoted once again and found Vector and meme coin trading, and then got a Coinbase acquisition. Another really nice opportunity for great founders to come into a narrative at a new point and leave at a different one and do fine.

7:48然後你可能會覺得，在這個敘事已經明顯結束之後才進場，這實在是太瘋狂了。像是，為什麼、為什麼、為什麼要在這個循環這麼晚的時候還支持一個團隊？但我們從 Tensor 和 Metastreet 學到的是，優秀的創辦人如果能夠快速推出產品並且努力工作，而且願意聆聽使用者的意見，永遠都值得我們帶進來。上一屆的 caviar 在 Demo Day 上表現並不好，他們甚至沒有募到資金。所以我們協助他們轉型，去探索 SocialFi——當時正在興起的一個新敘事，但那個方向也沒有做得很好。不過他們持續學習，把所學累積起來，並且不斷推出新產品。因為他們有技術背景，而且非常努力工作，最終他們找到了很棒的點子。And then you'd think this would be crazy to come in once the narrative is already clearly dead. Like, why, why, why back a team so late into the cycle? But what we had learned from Tensor and Metastreet is that great founders who ship fast and work hard. And who listen to their customers are always worth bringing on. And the last caviar didn't do very well on demo day. They didn't even raise. And so we helped them pivot and explore SocialFi, a new narrative that was growing at the time, and that didn't do so well either. But they kept learning and compounding what they learned and kept shipping. And because they were technically minded and working tirelessly, they eventually found a great idea.

8:41他們打造了 Pump.fun，今天已經創造了八億美元的成績，這非常厲害，也是我們在加密貨幣領域見過最大、最令人印象深刻的公司之一。所以，根本沒有什麼固定模式可以告訴你，什麼時候該根據某個敘事去支持一位創辦人。我也不認為你應該太在意投資於某個敘事，或是在特定敘事下支持創辦人。我認為我們看到的是，想法會來來去去，但創辦人會留下來。而你要做的，就是找到那些能夠留下來的人。They built Pump.fun, and they've made $800 million today, which is great, and are one of the largest, most impressive companies we've seen in crypto. So there is no real pattern to when you should back a founder given a narrative. And I don't think you should really care about investing in narratives or supporting founders in a given narrative. I think what we've seen is that ideas come and go, but founders stay. And you want to find the ones that can.

9:11什麼是值得支持的創業者？

9:11所以這代表創辦人要能夠自在地轉型。這也代表你要能夠接受創辦人轉型，甚至對於他們的轉型感到興奮。而這真正的意義是，什麼樣的創辦人有能力轉型？當我們在尋找那些能夠不斷進出偉大點子、探索新奇機會的人時，我們到底在找什麼？這就是我們一直以來努力建立的社群，也是我們正在學習如何打造的社群。And so that means founders that are comfortable pivoting. That means you being comfortable with founders pivoting and being excited by pivots. And what that really then means is, what is the kind of founder that can pivot? What are we looking for when we look for someone who's going to come into and out of great ideas and explore new and interesting opportunities? And this is the community we've been trying to build for some time and learning how to build it.

9:43所以，第一點，這對於任何有待過新創圈的人來說應該都不會感到意外，就是你必須和你的使用者對話。你必須和人交流。人們有各種各樣的祕密可以透露給你，而要打造一個成功的新創公司，就是要累積這些祕密，培養領域專業，知道一些連 Claude 都不知道的事情，就像我們剛剛說的那樣。對於年輕人在創業時，實際走出舒適圈、去探索現實世界中的問題、甚至讓自己出糗、感到尷尬地詢問並發現問題所在，這其實是很彆扭的。但我認為，這是一件非常值得嘗試的好事。So. The first, and this should be no surprise to anyone who's been in the startup life, is you have to talk to your customers. You have to talk to people. People have all kinds of secrets to reveal to you, and to build a successful startup is to accumulate secrets, to grow domain expertise, to know things Claude doesn't know, like we were saying before. And it's actually really awkward for young people who are building companies to go out from their armchairs and explore the world of real-life problems and to embarrass themselves and be cringed asking and finding out what's wrong. But I think that's a really great thing to try and do.

10:23但是，當你發現問題出在哪裡之後，你就必須非常快速地推出解決方案。幸運的是，我們現在正處於一個擁有優秀 AI 程式設計工具的時代。這些工具在過去許多創辦人創業時是無法取得的。但理論上，你現在應該能夠以過去十倍的速度推出產品，以更快的步伐解決問題。最後，也是我認為最重要的一點，就是當你的產品不再成長、你的指標不再指引你持續向上時，要傾聽你的使用者、你的朋友、家人以及投資人的意見。這時候，你就必須去尋找一個新的想法。But then once you do find what's wrong, you have to ship really fast. And thankfully, we live in an excellent age of AI coding tools. Which many of these founders didn't have access to when they did. But theoretically, you should be able to ship 10 times faster than we used to to solve problems at a greater breakneck pace. And then the last and most, I think, important part is to listen to your customers and to your friends and family and investors when things aren't growing anymore, when your north star isn't guiding you towards up and to the right. And that's then to find a new idea.

10:59所以要跟使用者對話，快速推出產品，並且要知道什麼時候必須尋找新的想法，因為你的數據已經不再合理。我認為這就是我們學到的，也是我們從這些在各種敘事階段進來的新創公司創辦人身上學到的。So talk to users, ship fast, and know when you have to find the new idea because your numbers don't make sense anymore. And I think that's what we've learned, and that's what we've learned from these founders coming in at all points of narrative.

11:15結語：支持創業者，不是敘事

11:15最後，我想留給大家的一點，就是——因為我答應過要讓他們趕上時間——不要只跟著潮流走。去找那些會跟使用者對話、而且像明天不存在一樣不斷推出產品的創辦人。謝謝大家。And yeah. So last thing I want to leave you on, and because I promised I'd let them catch up on their timing, is don't index on trends. Find founders who talk to users and ship like there's no tomorrow. Thank you.