Tom Lee：機構資金與財富轉移推動加密牛市

0:00牛市開端與機構進場

0:00大家好。我有二十分鐘要跟大家談一個我認為非常重要的主題，就是祝賀大家。我們正處於加密貨幣牛市的開端，如果要我選一個時間點，我會說是在八月。你可能會懷疑這是不是牛市，因為有些人覺得市場還很脆弱，但這正是牛市初期會發生的情況。讓我帶大家快速瀏覽一下我的簡報。首先，我們正經歷一個全面的加密貨幣牛市。有很多指標已經出現，這些指標只會在牛市時才會看到。好，讓我開始說明。Hello. I have twenty minutes to talk to you about something I think is very important, which is congratulations. We are at the beginning of a crypto bull market, and if I had to pick a date, I would say it was in August. You might doubt it's a bull market because some see it as fragile, but that's exactly what happens at the start of a bull market. So let me take you through my presentation. First, we are going through a full-blown crypto bull market. There are a lot of indicators that have happened and only show up in bull markets. Okay, let me start.

0:49首先，我們獲得了機構資金的支持。我不是只說 Franklin 認為牛市開始了，還有 Fidelity、BlackRock 以及所有主要玩家。我在過去三次加密寒冬從沒看過機構這樣公開表態。我們還有技術面的理由：比特幣站上 200 日均線。這發生在 8 月 19 日，同一天以太幣也出現黃金交叉。你看，上一次比特幣突破 200 日均線是在去年八月和四月。但自 2010 年以來，比特幣在突破後的六個月平均有 80% 的正報酬，甚至有 100% 的漲幅，以太幣則有 90% 的平均表現。你可以在圖表上看到這些數據。First, we have institutional support. I mean, it's not just Franklin saying the bull market has started, but also Fidelity, BlackRock, and all the major players. I haven't seen this in the last three crypto winters—I've never seen institutions announce it like this. We also have a technical argument: Bitcoin is above its 200-day moving average. That happened on August 19, and on the same day, Ethereum had a golden cross. Look, the last time Bitcoin crossed the 200-day average was in August and April of last year. But since 2010, Bitcoin averages an 80% positive return in the six months after, with gains of 100%, and Ethereum averages 90%. You can see that on the chart.

1:46我簡單說明，這些就是其他突破 200 日均線的時點。在最近九次突破中，有八次都是牛市的起點。我們還看到 ETF 有正向資金流入。熊市時不會有資金流入加密貨幣，只有牛市才會有。股票也是一樣，只有牛市才有資金流入。我們有明確證據，因為今年第三季（六月到九月），加密貨幣是所有資產中表現最好的，遠遠領先其他資產。AI 股票在那一季反而下跌。I'll make it simple. These are the other crossovers above the 200-day level. Out of the last nine crossovers, eight were the start of bull markets. We also have positive inflows into ETFs. There are no positive inflows into crypto during a bear market, only in bull markets. Same for stocks—positive inflows only happen in bull markets. We have solid evidence because in Q3 of this year, from June to September, crypto was by far the best-performing asset class. AI stocks were actually down that quarter.

2:24我們經歷了非常嚴峻的金融環境。聯準會態度鷹派、油價上漲、全球債券殖利率攀升、金融條件緊縮，但加密貨幣依然表現突出。這就是牛市會發生的事。加密貨幣無視於聯準會基本上是敵對的事實。最後，這是 Tom DeMark 的觀點。他是我們專屬的時機顧問，今年幫 BitMine 至少省下了一億美元。他的價值堪比黃金。他說我們很有信心以太幣會繼續在更高價位交易，認為以太幣在接下來幾週內輕鬆突破三千美元。We went through extremely tough financial conditions. The Fed was hawkish, oil prices were up, global bond yields were rising, and financial conditions were tight, yet crypto outperformed. That's what happens in a bull market. Crypto ignores the fact that the Fed was basically hostile. Finally, this comes from Tom DeMark. He's one of our exclusive timing advisors, and he saved BitMine at least a hundred million dollars this year. He's worth his weight in gold. He says we're confident Ethereum will continue to trade at higher levels and believes Ethereum should easily break three thousand in the next few weeks.

3:08最後，我知道這是牛市，因為四年週期已經觸底。如果你調整時鐘，底部是在十月五日。也就是說，加密貨幣的底部就在兩天前。簡單來說，一切都靠數學。我們正處於牛市。但我要說，這可能是我們見過最大的牛市。And finally, I know it's a bull market because the four-year cycle has bottomed. If you set your clock, the bottom was on October 5th. So, it's been two days since the crypto bottom. In short, it's all about the math. We are in a bull market. But here's the thing—this could be the biggest bull market we've ever seen.

3:34這波牛市有何不同？

3:34我給你四個理由，說明這次牛市和以往不同。正如 Goldbein 所說，你還不夠樂觀。第一個理由是有一個龐大的機構級 tokenization 故事。在 2016 到 2017 年的牛市，主題是 ICO，主要是散戶參與。2019 到 2021 年則是 NFT 熱潮，也是以散戶為主。當然，這帶來了一些很棒的新技術。去年我們看到穩定幣熱潮，但因為 10 月 10 日的自動去槓桿事件，很多人被清算，導致加密貨幣進入長期寒冬。但現在我們迎來機構浪潮。I'll give you four reasons why this bull market is different from the others. As Goldbein says, you're not optimistic enough. The first is there's a huge institutional story around tokenization. In the 2016 to 2017 bull market, it was about ICOs, which was a retail story. Between 2019 and 2021, there was an NFT boom, also a retail boom. Of course, that resulted in some great new tech. Last year, we saw a stablecoin boom, but that was cut short by the automatic deleveraging event on October 10th, which liquidated many and started a long crypto winter. But now, we have an institutional wave coming.

4:27BlackRock 和其他資產管理公司都想把一切資產 tokenization 上鏈。Robinhood 的 Vlad Tenev 說，他們未來十年會成為全球十大金融機構之一。我們正處於超級循環的開端，所有傳統金融資產都將被 tokenization。這是一波巨大的浪潮。這波浪潮有多大？目前加密貨幣市值約兩兆美元，但鏈外流通的流動性資產有兩百兆美元，每年還以七兆美元速度成長。如果你想知道有沒有錢蓋資料中心，每年就有七兆新資金。前三大市場就有一百六十兆美元可能流入加密貨幣。只要有一兆美元進來，加密貨幣市值就會變成三十七兆美元。BlackRock and other asset managers want to tokenize everything on blockchains. Vlad Tenev from Robinhood, who I think will end up as one of the top ten financial institutions in a decade, says so. We're at the start of a supercycle. Everything that runs on traditional financial rails will be tokenized. This is a massive wave. How big? Crypto is a $2 trillion market, but there are $200 trillion in liquid assets outside crypto today, growing by $7 trillion a year. If you ever wonder if there's money to build data centers, there's $7 trillion in new money every year. The top three markets alone represent $160 trillion that could flow into crypto. Remember, just $1 trillion flowing into crypto would make it a $37 trillion market.

5:25當然，這一切大多都發生在以太坊上。BlackRock、J.P. Morgan、Robinhood 都在以太坊上建設。以太坊有龐大的開發者社群，開發者數量等於其他所有社群總和。所以這是一波巨大的浪潮。第二個不同點是現在正發生一場巨大的財富轉移。我覺得大家討論得還不夠，但 Vlad 說未來十年會有一百兆美元轉移。我們可以從美國國稅局的數據看到，上一次牛市有四千億美元的遺產轉移，下一個循環可能會接近一兆五千億到兩兆美元。這是嬰兒潮世代或更年長者過世，財富轉移到千禧世代，資產配置從債券轉向股票和加密貨幣，資金流非常龐大。Of course, a lot of this is happening on Ethereum. BlackRock, J.P. Morgan, Robinhood—they're all building on Ethereum. Ethereum has a huge community. The number of developers today equals the rest of the community combined. So it's a massive wave. The second difference in this bull market is there's a huge wealth transfer happening right now. I don't think people talk about this enough, but Vlad says it's $100 trillion over the next ten years. We can see this from the IRS. In the last crypto bull market, there was $400 billion in inherited wealth. In the next cycle, it's likely to be $1.5 to $2 trillion. This is about the death of baby boomers or older, and inheritance moving to millennials. Those allocations move from bonds to stocks and crypto. Huge financial flows.

6:27其中很大一部分會來自私募股權和私人債務，至少有 12 兆美元。這是一個巨大的買盤缺口，也解釋了為什麼我們能有這麼強勁的表現。第三個新現象是數位資產金庫（digital asset vaults）。你可能會問，這些金庫能扮演什麼角色？首先，數位資產金庫在牛市時是加密貨幣的好朋友。在熊市時，大家會懷疑金庫有沒有用。順帶一提，BitMine 就是數位資產金庫。這次熊市只有四個金庫的市價高於淨資產價值，包括 BitMine。但我認為下一波牛市，所有金庫都會復甦，開始買進加密貨幣，支持底層區塊鏈。A lot of that will come from private equity and private debt, at least $12 trillion. So, consider that. It's a huge buying gap, and I think that's why we've had such strong outperformance. The third thing happening in this cycle that didn't happen before is digital asset vaults. You might wonder what role they can play. First, digital asset vaults are crypto's friend in a bull market. In the bear market, people wondered if vaults had any use. By the way, BitMine is a digital asset vault. Only four digital asset vaults traded above their net asset value in this bear market, including BitMine. But in the coming bull market, I think all these vaults will recover and start buying crypto, supporting the underlying blockchains.

7:34為什麼？因為金庫會把市場上的供給抽走。以太坊金庫目前持有 7% 的加密貨幣流通量，比特幣金庫持有 6.5%，Solana 金庫持有 3%。但你看 Hyperliquid，這個鏈和專案非常成功，部分原因是 Hyperliquid 金庫持有 14% 的流通量，當金庫把供給抽離市場，牛市來臨時，價格就會漲得更兇。以太坊金庫在三大主流幣中持有比例最高，7%。這在上一輪牛市是沒有的。所以如果你在想以太坊的潛在漲幅，我認為你低估了它的爆發力。Why is this? Because vaults pull supply out of the market. Ethereum vaults today hold 7% of crypto supply, Bitcoin vaults hold 6.5%, and Solana vaults 3%. But look at Hyperliquid—it's been a very successful chain and project, and part of that is the Hyperliquid vault holds 14% of the supply. When vaults pull supply out of the market, and then a bull market comes, guess what? The price goes up much more. Ethereum vaults have the largest share among the big three, 7% of the supply. This wasn't present in the last bull market. That's why if you're thinking about Ethereum's upside, I think you're underestimating how high it can go.

8:29AI 與加密貨幣的交會

8:29最後，這次你可以在本次大會的展區看到一個新故事：加密貨幣和 AI 的結合。AI 當然是個巨大趨勢，但大家都以為只跟半導體、記憶體、瓶頸有關，其實不然。雖然半導體和記憶體股價已經反映，但相關股票表現更好，包括 MAG 7、軟體和加密貨幣。A16Z 和 Marc Andreessen（你們下一場會有 A16Z 的講者）認為，代理人支付（agent payments）是 AI 與加密貨幣的最大融合，因為 AI agent 會持有資金。And finally, there's a new story you can see among the exhibitors at this conference: crypto's important connection to AI. AI is, of course, a huge trend, but everyone thinks it's just about semiconductors, memory, and bottlenecks, but that's not true. While semiconductor and memory stocks have already moved, the related stocks have outperformed even more—MAG 7, software, and crypto. A16Z and Marc Andreessen—and I know your next session has someone from A16Z—think agent payments are the big unification of AI and crypto, because AI agents will hold money.

9:15AI agent 可能會在錢包裡放 Visa 卡，但更可能會持有加密貨幣錢包。我們知道現在非人類已經成為網路流量的主力，事實上，他們也是 AI 計算資源的最大消費者。這些就是 agent，我們要小心，因為 agent 現在已經能通過 CAPTCHA 測試。我們甚至無法分辨誰是誰，所以我們必須讓人類保持在決策圈裡。這就是加密貨幣、最終性和智慧合約執行的用武之地。AI agents might carry a Visa card in their wallet, but more likely they'll have a crypto wallet. We know that non-humans have become the dominant source of internet traffic—in fact, they're also the biggest consumers of compute tokens in AI. These are agents, and we have to be careful because agents can now pass CAPTCHA tests. We can't even tell who's who anymore, so we need to keep humans in the loop. That's where crypto, finality, and smart contract execution come in.

9:51你們還不夠樂觀：牛市規模與L1機會

9:51所以我再強調一次，我認為你們還不夠樂觀。這將會是有史以來最大的加密貨幣牛市，我只是想再次強調這一點。不管你原本預期的報酬率是多少，或者你是否因為過去這十二個月太難熬而懷疑我們真的進入牛市，你都可以從這裡看到端倪。So I repeat, I don't think you are optimistic enough. This is the biggest crypto cycle coming, and I just want to emphasize that. So whatever level of return you expected, or if you doubt we're in a bull cycle because you lived through the last twelve months that were really tough, you can see it here.

10:13這場大會充滿了加密貨幣的能量。上週在韓國區塊鏈週（KBW）也是一樣，這跟我們之前經歷的狀況有很大不同。最後我想提出一個重點，假設你對以太坊很樂觀，我認為你應該要這樣。你也應該對L1公鏈很樂觀。This conference has huge energy in crypto. That was true at Korea Blockchain Week, KBW, last week as well, which is a big change from what we were experiencing. The last point I want to make is, let's say you're bullish on Ethereum, and I think you should be. You should be bullish on L1s.

10:34我最近在台灣跟一些十年前剛開始研究比特幣時認識的人一起吃飯。想像一下，十年前比特幣還不到一千美元，而今天比特幣已經來到八萬美元。那些大膽的投資人，當我跟他們吃飯時，我本來以為他們現在應該都在搭私人飛機，畢竟如果比特幣漲了八十倍，他們的投資可能已經是一百倍甚至一千倍。I had dinner recently in Taiwan with some people I met ten years ago when I first started in Bitcoin research. Imagine, ten years ago Bitcoin was less than a thousand dollars. And today, Bitcoin is at eighty thousand. Those bold investors, when I had dinner with them, I expected they were living on private jets, because at least if Bitcoin returned eighty times, their investments might be a hundred or a thousand times.

11:08但他們這樣說，他們說投資報酬還可以，但他們其實希望當初只買比特幣就好。這也是我現在要告訴你們的。你們這一輪要盡量多配置比特幣、以太坊，甚至Solana。我認為L1公鏈會吸收大量價值，但還有一種方式可以超越L1，就是買進數位資產金庫，而BitMine在這一輪有機會表現得更好。But this is what they said. They said their investment returns were acceptable, but they wished they had just bought Bitcoin. Well, that's what I'm telling you now. You want to get maximum exposure to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even Solana in this cycle. I think L1s will capture a lot of value, but there's a way to outperform L1s, which is to buy digital asset vaults, and BitMine is positioned to outperform in this cycle.

11:42BitMine策略：以太坊曝險與5%上限

11:42我想把這點講清楚。好，這裡有三個我們做到的方法。第一，BitMine在這一波牛市中維持對以太坊的最大曝險。大家明白嗎？這是以太坊的價格。它已經盤整了五年，你們知道，盤整越久，突破就越大。上一次以太坊盤整後，漲了227倍，再上一次是54倍。I want to make this point very clear. Okay, here are three ways we do this. The first is that BitMine maintains maximum exposure to Ethereum in this bull market cycle. Is that clear? This is the price of Ethereum. It's been consolidating for five years, you know, the longer the base, the bigger the breakout. Last time Ethereum consolidated, it returned 227 times, and the time before that, 54 times.

12:17我認為考慮到AI、數位技術進步和財富轉移，這一輪至少有25倍的潛力。那這對BitMine股價意味著什麼？目前股價26美元，BitMine跟以太坊的相關性高達90%。如果以太坊漲到2萬2千美元，這是我認為的最低目標，BitMine股價會從26漲到300到500之間。如果以太坊到2萬6千，BitMine股價會在1200到1500之間。我們真的很專注讓BitMine股價最大化以太坊的曝險。I think, considering AI, digital technology advances, and wealth transfer, it's at least 25 times. So what does that mean for BitMine's stock price? The stock is currently at 26, and BitMine is 90% correlated with Ethereum. If Ethereum hits 22,000, which I think is the minimum target, BitMine's stock will go from 26 to between 300 and 500. If Ethereum hits 26,000, BitMine's stock will be between 1,200 and 1,500. You can see we're really focused on ensuring BitMine's stock gets maximum exposure to Ethereum.

13:08第二點是我們想要持有以太坊總供給的5%。這是嚴格的上限，超過5%我們就不再累積，因為大家不希望我們稀釋股東權益，而我們也沒有這麼做。BitMine才成立15個月，這一年我們已經做了很多事，讓我列舉幾個。第一，我們已經累積到600萬顆以太坊，佔總供給4.9%。BitMine也被納入Russell 1000指數，這是美國大型企業指數，只有六檔加密貨幣股票入選，我們是唯一的以太坊選擇。The second thing is we wanted to reach 5% of the supply. That's a strict cap, we won't accumulate past 5%, because people don't want to think we're diluting shareholders, which we haven't done. In our first year, look at all we've accomplished. BitMine has only existed for 15 months. Already, we've paved our way and achieved a lot of firsts, but let me list a few. First, we've reached six million Ethereum, that's 4.9% of the supply. BitMine was also added to the Russell 1000 index. That's the large-cap US companies index, and there are only six crypto stocks in the Russell 1000. We're the only Ethereum option.

14:04這代表當大型機構和對沖基金想要加密貨幣曝險時，只有一檔股票會被買，就是BitMine。但我們說過有嚴格的5%上限，不會持有超過5%的以太坊。這其實是Vitalik有點要求我們這麼做，Justine Derick和基金會也都同意，所以我們會停在5%。目前我們已經累積到600萬顆以太坊，這花了一年多，本來以為要五年才做得到，而且這一切都是在熊市中完成的。我們在沒人想買以太坊時買進，樂於低價買進，大部分都是在1500美元時買的，現在我們只差10萬顆就到5%。That means when big institutions and hedge funds want crypto exposure, there's only one stock they'll buy, and that's BitMine. But we've said we have a strict 5% cap. We won't own more than 5% of Ethereum. That's something Vitalik kind of asked us to do, Justine Derick and the foundation, so we'll stop at 5%. So where do we stand on that 5%? Well, we've accumulated six million Ethereum over the past fifteen months. It took us just over a year, we thought it would take five years, and most importantly, we did all this in the middle of a bear market. We bought Ethereum when nobody wanted it, happy to buy it cheap, a lot at $1,500, and now we just need another 100,000 to reach 5%.

15:15熊市買進、牛市領先：BitMine績效與策略

15:15但我們會在這裡停手，原因就在這張圖。我們所有的買進都是在熊市，你們懂嗎？其實我認為我們幫以太坊建立了底部。我們的買盤讓以太坊不會再跌，但現在我們在25倍漲幅來臨前就已經完成累積。如果我們有5%上限，代表牛市時我們會跑贏以太坊。你們不用擔心我們還會繼續集資，因為我們已經結束累積，現在的目標就是超越以太坊，這也是我們創立公司的初衷，我可以證明我們做到了。But we'll stop here. The reason is this chart. We did all these purchases in a bear market, do you understand? So, in fact, I think we helped set a floor for Ethereum. We protected Ethereum from dropping because we were buying, but now we've finished stacking before a 25x move up. So, if we have a 5% cap, that means we'll outperform Ethereum on the way up, right? You don't have to worry about us trying to raise more capital, we're done. We're now designed to outperform Ethereum. That's our goal in founding the company, and I can prove we've done it.

16:02去年我們從6月30日開始，到12月以太坊漲了22%，BitMine漲了500%，今年又多了48個基點的超額報酬。在熊市中，BitMine漲了3%，以太坊反而跌了9%。我們在熊市中超越以太坊1200個基點，總計我們為股東帶來53,500個基點的超額報酬。現在牛市已經開始，可能會像2025年那樣。Last year, we started BitMine on June 30, and from June 30 to December, Ethereum rose 22%. BitMine gained 500%, 48 basis points of outperformance this year, and in a crypto bear market, BitMine rose 3% while Ethereum dropped 9%. We've outperformed by 1,200 basis points in a bear market, and in total, we've delivered 53,500 basis points of outperformance to shareholders. Now, keep in mind, a bull market has started, likely to look more like 2025.

16:45回購、優先股與多元布局：BitMine的護城河

16:45我們還做了其他事。為了保護股東，我們進行了股票回購。事實上，我們做了史上最大規模的加密貨幣股票回購。這是今年BitMine股價的走勢。我們聘請了Tom DeMark，決定我們的股價在這裡太便宜了。7月14日開始回購，持續大約一個月，花了3.5億美元。你們可以看到我們幫助股價止跌，順帶一提，一旦我們停止回購，股價反而漲更多。這就是回購的目的：保護股東。There are other things we've done. We've done stock buybacks to protect shareholders. In fact, we did the largest crypto stock buyback in history. This is BitMine's stock price this year. We hired Tom DeMark, decided our stock was too cheap here. On July 14, we started buybacks, did it for about a month, spent $350 million. You can see we helped protect the stock from dropping. By the way, once we stopped, the stock went up even more. That's the purpose of buybacks: to protect shareholders.

17:27我們也為以太坊設立了參考價格。我們發行了BMNP永久優先股，發行價80美元，當時直接跌到9.99美元，現在已經漲到100美元。這是優先股，類似債券。自從我們發行MNP以來，長天期美債跌了8%，投資級債跌6%，高收益債跌3%，但我們的優先股漲了24%，是全球表現最好的債券。這說明債券持有人很愛BMNP，BMNR股東也應該很高興。我們的融資成本最低，BMNP殖利率9.5%，我覺得這很高，但比特幣優先股大約12%，Solana優先股約15%。順帶一提，我兩個都很欣賞，我是比特幣和Solana的粉絲。加密市場不是贏家通吃的遊戲。We've also set a reference price for Ethereum. We issued BMNP perpetual preferred shares at $80. It went straight to $9.99, and now it's at $100. These are preferred shares, like bonds. Since we issued MNP, long-term Treasuries dropped 8%, investment grade bonds dropped 6%, high-yield bonds dropped 3%, but our preferred shares rose 24%. We're even the best-performing bond in the world. If that doesn't tell you bondholders love BMNP, BMNR shareholders should be happy to own it. We have the lowest financing cost, BMNP yields 9.5%. I think that's high, but Bitcoin preferred shares are about 12%, Solana preferred shares about 15%. By the way, I like both. I'm a fan of Bitcoin and Solana. The crypto market is not a winner-take-all system.

18:43最後，我們會善用業務規模。我們有Maven，這是我們的質押業務，每天產生100萬美元質押獎勵。我們有Itco，持有OpenAI大量股份，這部分價值已經大幅上升，還有Global Token，這部分明顯被低估。當然，我們也持有Best Finally的大量股份，我認為那是下一家金融服務公司。最後我要強調，真正的財富不是靠買賣，而是靠等待，就像偉大的Charlie Munger說的，他是持有信仰的原型。Finally, we'll benefit from our business scale. We have Maven, our staking operation, which generates a million dollars a day in staking rewards. We have Itco, which owns a big stake in OpenAI. That stake has already jumped in value, and it owns Global Token, which is undervalued. Of course, we have a huge stake in Best Finally, which I think is the next financial services company. But what I want to end with is that real money isn't made in buying and selling, but in waiting, as the great Charlie Munger said. He's the original hold guy.

19:22總結一下，這是有史以來最大的加密貨幣牛市，而你們還不夠樂觀。謝謝大家。So, in short, this is the biggest crypto bull market ever, and you are not optimistic enough. Thank you.