牛市新敘事：Zcash、AI 幣崛起與資產分化

0:25回顧一年前的市場高點

0:25很開心可以跟大家現場見面。我們每次不用窩在自己小辦公室、對著電視螢幕時，都特別興奮。今天想先來回顧一下去年的這個時候，因為那時正好是 10 月初，市場還在高點，氣氛超級熱烈。Good to be with you guys live. We always get excited when we're not in front of our TV screens in our little offices. I think we wanted to start with a reminisce of a year ago because it was just before 10-10. We were literally near the highs and the excitement of what was happening 10-1, not 10-10.

0:49所以我們想快速回顧一下當時的價格，真的很美好。你看那些走勢圖，全部都是綠的。Bitcoin 11.8 萬，XRP 3 美元。Solana 幾乎是現在的兩倍。最讓我印象深刻的是 Ethereum，當時快要 4,400 美元，現在看起來根本遙不可及。So we wanted to just do a quick look back at what prices were back then, and man, that looks good. Look at those charts. Everything's green. Bitcoin, 118, all the way like XRP, $3. What stands out? I mean, Solana was basically double. I think it's got to be Ethereum at 40, almost 4,400. That seems almost unreachable now.

1:11其實也沒有差太遠啦，現在還有 2,700、2,600，連 Dogecoin 也大概跌了三分之二。這一年變化真的很大，裡面有很多值得學習的地方。Well, I mean. We're not too far away, 27, 26, and even Dogecoin, I think down by probably two-thirds. We want to look at how things have changed because there's quite some lessons in just a year and what has happened.

1:28市場排名大洗牌：Zcash 與 Hyperliquid 竄升

1:28現在的價格變化很大，前幾名的幣種也有不少變動。最明顯的就是 Zcash 和 Hyperliquid 擠進前十名。Solana、BNB 也還在榜上。Taiki，你怎麼看 Zcash 和 Hype？你一直是很厲害的交易員。Yeah, so these are the prices now. Quite a few changes there in the top. I think the most striking, of course, is like Zcash, Hyperliquid entering the top 10. I guess Solana, BNB, everything else in line. I guess, Taiki, what do you think about Zcash and Hype? You've been one of the GOAT traders.

1:53我這一路都有分批加碼，經典的 Texas hedge 操作——用更多多單來避險多單。我覺得 Zcash 是這一輪的主角。你還在繼續這樣操作嗎？還有繼續做稅損嗎？當然啊，沒問題。前兩天我還掛了限價單，早上起來就成交了。Yeah, I've been averaging on the way up, you know, good old Texas hedge, you know. Hedge my longs with more longs. I think Zcash is the coin of the cycle. Are you still doing it, by the way? Still tax lossing both of them? Yeah, of course. No question. Just checking. Yeah, I set some limit orders two nights ago. I woke up, they were filled. I'm like, all right.

2:17我覺得有個很好的問題可以討論，剛剛前一場還有量子電腦的討論。假如 Bitcoin 的量子風險被解決，價格會變多少？我問過一些人，他們覺得 Bitcoin 會到 15 萬、12 萬，絕對破 10 萬。所以量子威脅對 Bitcoin 是很大的壓力。Zcash 正在解決這個問題，像 Project Tachyon 幾個月內就會上線。當然，隱私敘事也是一部分。But I do think Bitcoin—I think a good question is, I mean, we just had like a quantum panel before us, but... How much more would Bitcoin be worth if quantum was addressed, right? And I talked to a few people, and they think that maybe Bitcoin would be 150, 120, definitely above 100. So I do think quantum is a huge overhang in Bitcoin, and I think, you know, Zcash is one of the things addressing that with Project Tachyon that should come in the next few months. And privacy narrative is part of it too.

2:42每一輪牛市都會有新幣挑戰老幣。上一輪是 Solana 挑戰 Ethereum，再前一輪是 ETH 挑戰 Bitcoin。這一輪我覺得 Zcash 最有機會跟 Bitcoin 爭資金流。But I do think that every cycle. Every bull market, there's one new coin that challenges an old coin. You know, last year was Solana, or last cycle was Solana over Ethereum, previous cycle ETH over Bitcoin, and I think Zcash has the biggest chance of competing for flows against Bitcoin.

3:01迷因幣與資金流向的變化

3:01我們再來聊聊其他幣種。我發現 Dogecoin 幾乎完全沒反彈，這其實蠻合理的。有些幣當初只是大家想找個標的下注，現在看起來 Zcash 和 Hype 已經取代那個角色。Let's do a little more switch back and forth. I mean, I see Dogecoin literally has not recovered at all, and I think it kind of makes sense. There are some tokens that just had value because you know, people wanted some alt to bet on at that level, and it looks like Zcash and Hype have taken over that.

3:20再看 Tether 和 USDC 的 FDV，現在分別是 190 和 74，去年是 175 和 74。其實變化不大，穩定幣真的很穩。Tron 也是，去年 34 分，現在 33 分。穩定幣反而是這一波表現最穩的資產，幾乎沒什麼變動，好像真的有人在控盤一樣。When you look at Tether and USDC FDVs, now at 190 and 74, it was 175 and 74. Okay, so, like, not too different. It feels like stablecoins have been rather stable. Yeah, and if you look at Tron, you know, has excellency. It's 34 cents a year ago, and now it's 33. So stablecoin, yeah, it's actually been the most performing out of those top assets. It's almost stayed. It's almost like someone has control of it or something.

3:49ETH 操作心得與市場共識風險

3:49Justin，去年你不是喊 ETH 會到 7,000、1 萬嗎？我那時還一直勸你賣，你卻說 7,000 保證到。你這一年對 Ethereum 和其他幣的看法有沒有變？Yeah, I want to ask you, Justin, because I think last year, right, you were saying ETH to 7K, 10K. Is that true? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I was begging you to sell, but you're like, No, man, 7K guaranteed. You know, how have your views around Ethereum and other coins changed over the past?

4:06去年我在 4,850 賣掉 5-10% 的 ETH，10 月 10 日之後又把剩下 90% 在 3,850 全部清掉。當時還覺得自己賣太晚，但事後證明這是我做過最正確的事。先全部出清，等週期重置再決定買什麼。最近我有持有 Lighter，但也在 421 左右出場，雖然不是最高點，但還不錯，也有持有 Zcash。Okay, so last year I sold 5 to 10% of my Ethereum at about 48.50. And then I, you know, we were talking continuously through the rest of the market. After 10.10, I sold 100% of the rest of my ETH, about 90% at 38.50, which at the time I felt like I was late to sell. But after seeing what happened, it was really the best thing I could have ever done, is get out of ETH once and for all, let the cycle reset, and then figure out what to buy next. Since then, I was recently holding lighter. I just exited the position at about 421, so not quite the top, but still pretty solid, and also holding Zcash.

4:41你說你最近跟很多交易員聊天，大家都只在講那幾個幣。你覺得這樣大家都抱同一包，是好事還是壞事？You were saying you've been talking around to the traders, and it feels to you that everyone is just saying the same few tickers. What are those tickers and—Is that bullish or bearish that they're all holding the same tokens?

4:54我最近參加很多交易聚餐，亞洲、美國的基金經理人我都問他們持有什麼，答案都是 Hyperliquid、Zcash、Lighter、Near。每個人都一樣的包。我想問 Dim 或 Jordi，你們覺得這樣是不是太一致了？還是說牛市初期本來就該抱最主流的幣？Yeah, I've been going to all these trade, you know, trading dinners, and, you know, I see fund managers from Asia, U.S., and I ask them, like, what do you own? It's like, oh yeah, I own Hyperliquid, Zcash, Lighter, Near. I go to the next guy, same bags. I feel like everyone owns the same bags. So I kind of wanted to ask you this question where, you know, maybe, you know, Dim or Jordi, where is that? Problematic, you know, is it too consensus to own the same coins, or is it so early in the bull market that you just want to hold the most consensus bags, right? Do you have any thoughts on that?

5:24共識交易的風險與牛市週期

5:24其實加密圈本來就很容易大家抱同一包，像之前的 Sol、Luna、AVAX，大家都愛湊一個主流組合。這有好有壞。壞處是本益比會被炒到很誇張，因為大家都在搶未來的成長。像 Hype、Lighter 表現都超好，但他們的回購對價格影響已經很小，因為市場已經把 100 年的營收都算進去了。這讓人擔心是不是快到局部高點，萬一盤整會怎樣？I mean, we are memetic herd animals in crypto, and it always happens that people have the same bags. It was like the Sol Lunavax, and, you know, people like to just have a basket that everybody gravitates towards. It's good and bad. The bad part is the P ratios start to get ridiculous because everyone's just bidding up the future so hard. And, you know, hype has done tremendously well, lighter has done tremendously well. Their buybacks have started to become such a tiny, tiny impact on the price because we're kind of pricing in 100 years of, like, revenue at this point. It does start to worry around, like, are we getting near, like, local highs and what happens when things go sideways?

6:09Zcash 這一週表現最差，這種資產很反映市場情緒。之前我一路看好 Zcash，但一旦價格穩住，大家就會慢慢失去興趣，像飛蛾撲火一樣，一個個掉下來。你打算怎麼操作？會不會又 round trip？I do feel like Zcash is one that, even if you look at here, like the last seven days, it is the worst performing asset. Generally, assets like this are so reflective. I've talked about Zcash on the way up, but once it starts to stabilize and people—Slowly fall off. It's like flies just dropping because they slowly, one by one, just don't get the dopamine they need to keep alive, you know, attaching to the light bulb. And I don't know what your plan is. I don't—I don't want you to, like, round trip time.

6:38這很正常啦。我才會問你還在不在 Texas hedge，就是一直買。你什麼時候會賣？如果漲到 800 美元還會繼續加碼嗎？有設停損嗎？It's inevitable. It's okay. But that's why I asked if you're still kind of Texas hedging, as in, like, keep buying. When do you think? You're selling this back. Like, if this thing goes to like 800 bucks, are you gonna keep buying more? Is there a stop loss to this trade? How are you kind of thinking about it?

6:54我覺得 1,000 美元是很重要的關卡。如果跌破 1,000，很多人會想進場，但我覺得那就偏空了。所以我心理停損就是跌到三位數的 Zcash。不過我只是心理設想，沒有真的設停損，所以有可能哪天醒來看到 300 美元的 Zcash，只能脫衣服認賠了。Yeah, the way I view it is, I think getting past the 1,000 level is very important. So I think if we lose 1,000, I think a lot of people are looking to buy 1,000. It's a perfect retest, but I think that would be bearish. So mentally, my stop loss is three-digit Zcash. But you said mentally, so there's no stop-loss set. It's just you're contemplating it. So there's a chance I wake up to $300 e-cash and, you know, I'll take my shirt off again. I lose my—

7:17那你目標價是多少？我知道你剛結婚，什麼時候才是「換老婆的錢」？我也不知道啦，永遠要跟自己的包結婚。我說 2 萬、3 萬、甚至 4 萬的 Zcash，大家都覺得我瘋了，但我真的覺得未來幾年 Zcash 會在敘事和資金流上跟 Bitcoin 競爭。我會一路賣上去，2,000 以上就會開始分批賣。And, like, where are you trying to get out? Like, what is the—I know you just got married, but, like, where is the wife-changing money at for you? I don't know. Always marry your bags. But I think, you know, I think people... Look at me crazy when I say 20K, 30K Zcash, but I do think that over the next couple of years, Zcash will actually compete with Bitcoin in terms of narrative and flows. So, I mean, I'll definitely sell on the way up, right? I've mentioned before, like 3K, 4K. I mean, above 2K, I'll probably start selling and stuff, but—

7:49這讓我想到 Fartcoin 當初喊 10 美元的目標價，現在有點 PTSD。你應該把合約平掉，現貨抱著才對啦。但我還是要農Variational 積分啊。現場有沒有人還在抱 Fartcoin？喔，有一位，終於有人懂我的痛苦，希望這次不會重演。I do think this is a little reminiscent of Fartcoin target being $10. I'm getting flashbacks. Yeah. I think you got to close the perps and hold the spot. I think that's the move. Yeah, but I need to farm variational points, you know? Who here has held or is still holding Fartcoin? Are there any Fartcoin holders? Oh, that guy. Okay. There is, like, someone who understands. What you've gone through on that one, so hopefully it's going to be different.

8:16新幣發行困境與 TGE 熱潮

8:16我們剛剛還在聊，今年其實沒有什麼新幣發行，連一個十億美元的 TGE 都沒有，更別說能進前十的。Justin，你有想改變這現狀嗎？我們有啊，我現在在 Variational 當產品負責人，我們已經宣布 Q4 要 TGE，超級興奮，因為今年只有我們算是有份量的 TGE。我們會有這個頭銜，也會留下這個傳奇。We were talking about how there's no, like, new tokens this year. We really haven't had any, even like a billion-dollar, like one billion-dollar TG, let alone anything that's going to make it into this, you know, top 10 chart. Justin, are you hoping to change that? We are. So I'm head of product at Variational. We have announced that we're TGing in Q4, and it's very exciting because I do think we are the only substantial TG of this year. We're going to have that crown on our heads, and we'll have that legacy to live by.

8:46這一路準備 TGE 的過程其實已經好幾個月、甚至幾年了。成長很穩定，每天成交量都有 40 億美元以上，大部分來自傳統金融的永續合約。我們對 TGE 很有信心，也很期待發幣。我們會做史上最大空投，比 Hyperliquid 的 31% 還多 1%，我們做 32%，這就是我們的招牌。每年 Q4 都是 DEX 發幣的旺季，像 Hyperliquid、Lighter，現在輪到 Variational。以前 dYdX 發幣時也是大事，當時市值 150 億。這套路已經寫好，祝你們好運。But it's super exciting. I mean, the process leading up to TGE, we've been building towards it for months, actually years now. Growth has been pretty steady at about $4 billion plus of daily volume, most of that from TradFi perps. So I think we're really well positioned for TG. We're super excited to get the token out there, and we're doing the largest airdrop that we know of in crypto history, 1% more than Hyperliquid's 31%. We're doing 32, so that's our claim to fame. And it feels like every year around this Q4 period is when we get the new DEX token launching. It's been several years now where the biggest launch, you know, Hyperliquid, Lighter, now Variational. Of course, in the past it was like dYdX. That was a huge one at the time, launched around 15 billion. So, you know, the playbook is written, so good luck on that.

9:33但也有點感傷，今年真的沒什麼大案子出來。我們想討論一下，為什麼大公司都不發幣？像 Base 有說過可能會發幣，但還沒發。Kraken 準備發 Ink，我覺得這個應該會成真，但可能還要三到六個月。Polymarket 的 Shane 也有上台，但沒有宣布 Poli token，雖然有暗示。也許這些公司最後都直接 IPO，不發幣。And it does feel a bit sad that there's been nothing huge coming out. So one of the other topics we want to talk about is why are the huge companies not doing tokens? I mean, we've had things like Base talk about potentially doing a token. That hasn't happened yet. Kraken is planning to do Ink. I think that one will happen for sure, although maybe, you know, in three to six months, there's still some time left on that one. And then Polymarket, I think Shane was on stage. But there was no announcement, even though he was hinting that there was going to be some kind of Poli token. So maybe these guys just IPO and don't do a token.

10:10大公司發幣的兩難與策略

10:10Dim，你有跟這些大公司聊過嗎？他們是不是很猶豫？我覺得他們真的很難做決定。像 Coinbase 這種已經上市的公司，發幣對股價不一定有幫助，甚至可能傷害股票表現。最好的策略可能就是一直畫餅，說未來可能會發幣，吸引流量到 Base。因為一旦真的發幣，農夫就會跑去別的鏈，這劇本我們都看過了。Dim, have you been talking to these big companies? Are they scared? I think it's a very, very tricky spot they're in. So the ones that are already public companies, let's say Coinbase. You know, it's not clear that actually launching a coin is conducive for the equity at all in any meaningful way. It might actually hurt the stock. So I think the optimal strategy for them is just to keep promising a coin that potentially may come to drive flow to base, because as soon as they get a token out, we've seen this story before. As soon as the token, you know, farmers just go to another chain, I think.

10:43如果是還沒上市的公司，他們需要募資，可以先發幣，當成類股權的玩法，選擇比較多。但像 Coinbase、Ark 這種上市公司，真的很難抉擇。我很期待看 ARC 發幣會怎樣，因為 Mainnet 已經上線，下一步就是看發幣後會發生什麼。每次有人計畫發幣，市場都很樂觀，連 Hunter Biden 發幣前大家都很嗨，但最後總是出問題，反而傷到品牌。這些公司市值都上百億美元，他們真的願意冒這個險嗎？In the case of a public market, the options are a little bit broader. You know, they're not a public company, they need to raise capital. They can deploy the coin first and kind of have this sense that it's a bit of a pseudo-equity play. I think they have more options there, but, you know, for something like Coinbase and Ark, I think they're in a very tricky spot. And I'm really looking forward to see how ARC performs into their launch, because we've seen Mainnet. The next big step is actually seeing what happens around the token launch. It's always—There's a lot of optimism when someone plans a token. You know, even Hunter Biden had a lot of optimism about his token before the launch. And inevitably, it feels like that optimism, like something goes wrong and just hurts the brand. And these companies that are already in the deca-billions in terms of their traditional equity valuations, do they really want to take the risk?

11:41我們剛剛有聊到 Kraken，我覺得他們真的會發幣，想複製 BNB 的模式，讓代幣有足夠的用途。但如果同時有股東，現金流到底要流向哪一邊就會有衝突，這個開關很容易切換。你怎麼看？I do think, you know, we've talked. Briefly about Kraken and, like, what they're doing, I do think, like, they're gonna actually go through with it and try to pull, like, another BNB, where they create enough utility for the token. But generally, if you're also having equity holders, there is an inherent battle between is more cash flowing to one or the other, and you can easily just switch the dial. How are you doing it?

12:06我很愛代幣，也覺得它們會再度崛起，但我能理解這些公司猶豫的原因。我其實想問一個問題，因為我過去一年一直在農 Ink，現在已經完全不期待了，甚至覺得這幣上市後表現應該不會太好。你覺得 Ink TGE 會成功嗎？I love tokens, and I feel like they will make a comeback, but I can understand the hesitation that these companies are having. I actually wanted to ask a question because, I mean, I've been forming Inc. over the past year, and at this point I have zero expectation, and I kind of expect the token to not trade that well, to put it nicely. Do you think Ink can actually succeed if they TG?

12:27我覺得還是要看他們怎麼做。我們之前有被 pitch 過願景，他們想把資產管理、交易等全部整合，做成一個新型態的財富平台，這個藍圖蠻大的。我對這個案子比其他新幣還有信心，可能會像 BNB 一樣，整個生態系都能用到。但就算是 BNB，大家用 BNB 支付手續費，現金流還是會被分走。I mean, I guess it kind of depends what they do, but we were pitched the vision. What's the vision? Look, I don't speak too much, but they have a really kind of big vision of how they kind of incorporate everything kind of together from asset management to trading to making this kind of like a new wealth platform. It's very interesting. And yeah, I think it's going to be an interesting one. Yeah, I feel better about this than other upcoming ones. It will be similar to BNB potentially, where it's being used across different parts of the ecosystem. But even with BNB, the fact that you can use BNB for fees and people are paying with a token instead of dollars, that does take away actual cash from

13:09AI 幣熱潮與 Pearl 的崛起

13:09你知道，現在很多交易所的股權價值都仰賴交易手續費收入。對於像 Kraken 這樣的公司來說，如果他們在資產負債表上有一個高市值的代幣，這對他們有幫助嗎？他們願意犧牲 20% 的現金流去換這個嗎？我覺得這可能會成真，蠻值得期待的。You know, the equity side of the business that is just depending on those trading fees. So you are making a sacrifice. Now, for a company like Kraken, will it be useful for them to have, you know, a big valuation token associated with them on their balance sheet? Is it worth it for them to sacrifice, you know, 20%, whatever, of their cash flow? So I think it might work out, and it'll be exciting to see.

13:32另外，最近大家都在討論 AI 幣。Pearl 這個項目最近很常被提到。之前幾集我一直在推各種 AI 幣，Grass 最近表現也不錯，從我們上次錄音以來已經翻倍了。Near、MultiX 也都很強，甚至連 Worldcoin 都開始補漲。我覺得隨著 OpenAI IPO 的熱度，這些幣還會繼續漲。And then the other thing, of course, that people have been talking about is, like, AI coins. Pearl is one that is coming up in a lot of conversations. On the previous episodes, I've kind of been shilling all the AI coins, and Grass has done well now, doubled since our last episode. Near, obviously, MultiX. Even Worldcoin starting to—Pick up the slack, and I think as we get into more OpenAI IPO time, it'll continue to do well.

14:01你們最近有聽過 Pearl 嗎？現場只有我有持有 Pearl 嗎？還是大家不想說？我來分享一下我的故事。我剛從韓國回來，問了每個遇到的人最近有什麼新項目最熱門，幾乎每個人都說 Pearl。我之前完全沒聽過，查了一下，號稱是『AI 比特幣』。重點不是它是什麼、做什麼，而是我開始研究怎麼買這個幣，結果發現只能在一些超級 sketchy、不用 KYC 的中心化交易所（好像叫 Safe Exchange）買，還只能小額進出，整個購買流程超麻煩。Have you guys been hearing about Pearl? It seems like—am I the only holder on stage of Pearl currently, or maybe we don't want to say? Well, I'll tell my story. So I just came from Korea. And I was asking, I ask everyone I meet, you know, what projects are you excited about? What's hot? What's new? And the most common response I got was Pearl. I'd never heard of it. I looked it up. It's quote-unquote AI Bitcoin. Not necessarily important what it is, what it does, etc. But I started to research, how do you actually buy this thing? It's only listed on the sketchiest—KYC-free centralized exchange, I think it's called Safe Exchange, something like that. You can only put small clips in, take them out. But it's a real big process to buy it.

14:42所以我覺得，只要 Pearl 一上主流交易所，應該會有不錯的表現，因為現在購買門檻太高了。每次參加交易員聚餐，大家都在推 Pearl。我也搞不清楚我是被當成接盤俠，還是真的還很早期。我們其實做了不少功課，也跟團隊聊過，這團隊真的很強。但他們也遇到所有 proof-of-chain 類型網路都會遇到的問題，比如每天有一百萬美金的通膨，這麼多新幣根本沒辦法直接在交易所賣掉，可能只能 OTC。等到真的上交易所時，你就是在賭需求能不能長期大於供給，這樣才有機會漲一波。供給明年會翻倍，超級通膨、風險很高。So my thinking is the second it gets a listing, it could do quite well, just because there's so much friction to purchase it right now. Yeah, every trader dinner I go to, everyone's shilling me Pearl. Like, I don't know if I'm exit liquidity or they're still early. It's definitely very early in this network. We've done a decent amount of work. We've talked to the team a lot. Obviously, they are an exceptional team. But, you know, they're facing the class of kind of issues that any proof-of-chain network can face, right? They have a—About a billion, a million dollars of inflation a day, right? So that amount of money cannot be sold kind of into safe trade. Maybe it can be sold on OTC. So when the exchange kind of happens, you know, you kind of are betting that demand will exceed supply, and it has to do so over a prolonged kind of period of time to—To give you a good kind of, kind of move, right? I think supply is doubling over the next year, so very inflationary, very risky.

15:41Zcash、Pearl 與純貨幣資產的敘事

15:41我覺得這類純貨幣資產開始流行起來。像 Zcash 就是純貨幣資產，完全沒有現金流。現在市場又回到一種槓鈴型結構：一邊是有現金流的 hype 資產表現很好，另一邊則是 L1 代幣（中間曲線），我們都已經脫手了，終於離開中間曲線。另一端則是純粹靠迷因分配、貨幣溢價帶動網路效應的資產。Zcash FDV 現在已經衝到 220 億美金，算是有往上突破。Pearl 也是類似的東西，有點像在挖礦。I think this category of monetary asset is coming in vogue. Obviously, Zcash literally is just a monetary asset. There is no cash flows associated with it. So we've had, in essence, a barbell once again. Where the pure cash flow assets are doing very well, you know, your hype type of assets. And then on the other extent, it's like, you know, the mid curve is the L1 tokens, which thankfully, like none of us are still holding. Finally, hopefully exited the mid curve. But on, like, on the other side of it is like you have these pure memetic assets that are—Trying to just create a distribution where the monetary premium itself is a large network effect. And Zcash, you know, now getting up to $22 billion of FDV, at least has taken a step up. I think Pearl is another one that's similar. You're sort of like mining it.

16:33如果你沒在追 Pearl，這個幣的概念是用『有用工作量證明』來挖礦，不是傳統的 proof of work，而是用 AI 推論運算來挖礦。未來如果所有晶片都能順便挖 Pearl，因為反正本來就在跑 AI 工作，這樣 Pearl 就會變成最安全的網路，這種安全性本身也會帶來迷因力量。我覺得這很有趣，大家現在真的很渴望 AI 經濟資產，Pearl 值得關注，希望之後買起來比現在這種黑市 OTC 容易多了。現在這種難買反而是機會，這也是我會買的唯一理由，因為真的很難找到。And for those who haven't been following it, the idea is instead of Proof of work, it's proof of useful work. So they're using actual, like, AI inference compute to mine it on the side. And hopefully, eventually, once all the chips are using it and mining it on the side as, like, a freebie, because why not? You're anyways doing the other work, it will become the most secure network, and that in itself, you know, will be able to create enough memetic force. So it's an interesting one. I do think that people are starved for AI economy assets, and this is one that is to keep an eye on, and hopefully it'll become easier than buying it off some sketchy OTC. That's the edge right now, though. You know, that's the only reason why I bought it. It's very hard to find.

17:18左曲線、右曲線與牛市敘事

17:18我有聽過一個說法，Zcash 是左曲線（left curve）玩法，但又帶點右曲線（right curve）元素。Pearl 也是，什麼『AI 比特幣』，這種敘事很適合牛市。這種左曲線加一點右曲線的組合，可能就是牛市幣的完美配方。Jordi 你怎麼看？我們是不是還要加點沙拉、再丟個漢堡進去，才夠有趣？Yeah, no, I heard this argument that maybe Zcash is a left curve play with sprinkles of right curve. Yeah, and like, Pearl is also, oh, Bitcoin AI, wow, the great narrative, maybe a great bull market narrative. It's also like a left curve play with the spring roll of right curve, and maybe that is like the perfect spot for the bull market. It's a good recipe for bull market coins. What did you say, Jordi? We got to give you a salad and toss a little burger in as well. You got to make it entertaining. You got to make it entertaining.

17:46我覺得這些資產未來一定要比現在的 proof-of-work 有所突破。現在的礦工大多在中國，用超低電價的礦機挖當紅幣，然後一有機會就把幣砸給像 Justin 這樣的人。這種經濟模式其實也能運作，但我們在看 Pearl 的機會是，能不能把挖礦權限民主化，讓全世界所有想參與 DeFi、on-chain 的人都能一起挖，而不是只給那群礦工。這樣才是更好的版本。希望未來真的能做到，大家可以一起挖礦，敬請期待。I mean, I think. What's going to happen with these assets is, you know, there needs to be some improvement over the current proof-of-work type of things where you have a bunch of miners, usually in China, that are just, you know, throwing their super low electricity miners at the coin of the day, and they just, like, rotate to whatever coin is hot. They take those tokens and dump it on Justin on, like, you know, wherever they can find him. Like all the Justins of the world get dumped on. And that's an economy that, you know, kind of works. That's cool. I think the opportunity with something like Pearl that we're looking at is, how about instead of just those guys mining and dumping, why don't we democratize the access to the mining to everyone in DeFi, everyone on chain that wants to participate around the world? That feels like a much Better version of this. So hopefully that'll come together and we'll create a way to mine it. So, yeah, watch this space. Watch this space. Yeah.

18:47螃蟹化現象與短影音賭博化

18:47我們來聊聊另一個話題，就是你說的『螃蟹化』（crabification）。我們的老朋友 Thicky Thoughts 發了一篇文，讓大家開始思考這個現象。自然界裡，很多生物最後都會演化成螃蟹，雖然螃蟹看起來很不合理，但歷史上就是這樣，什麼都會變螃蟹。可能跟橫著走有關。Thicky Thoughts 說，這種螃蟹化現在也發生在短影音和賭博型產品上。無論大家想做什麼，尤其在加密圈，最後都變成短影音或賭博變體。Do you want to go to one of the other topics we had? Yeah, we can move on to the crabification that you wanted to talk about. So our old steady lads. Friend, Mr. Thicky Thoughts, posted this and got us all thinking. Apparently, throughout nature, everything becomes crab. And even though crabs look like these animals that don't make sense, like how can this be the apex, you know, evolutionary animal? Somehow, throughout history, just everything seems to become a crab. And, you know, something about the lateral movement, whatever it is. So he's saying the same thing with this carcinization is potentially happening with short-form video and, you know, monetary variants of bets.

19:37我發現現在很多創業者本來想做很酷的產品，比如避險 ETH gas、避險什麼什麼，結果最後發現唯一真的有用的東西，就是快速多巴胺分配、短影音、縮短注意力的內容。Justin，我們可能會有點不同意見，但這是不是不可避免？我們是不是最後都會變成短影音創作者，像 Rasmer 那種交易員網紅？現在最大的問題就是：交易員會不會變成新一代名人？Coinbase 有交易比賽，Taiki 也在辦。我們也辦過Variational 交易比賽。但老實說，除了 FOMO 贊助的，沒有人真的說過交易員會變成新名人，這還沒發生。我反而有點唱反調。We are starting to see that no matter what people try to build, especially in crypto, and I'm seeing all these founders that have been Trying to do, you know, let's hedge ETH gas, or let's hedge this thing, these interesting products. And then they realize that actually the only fucking thing that works is just, you know, quick dopamine variance distributions and—The only thing that works from a social media standpoint, or like any kind of media, is like clips that just shorten your attention span. And I think Justin, you and I might be wanting to debate a little bit, but is this sort of inevitable? And are we just ending up with a bunch of like short-form video content creators, like the Rasmers of the world? Getting power and just being like the trader celebrities. There's this new question, I think it's like the biggest question that's going around these conferences: are traders the new celebrities? We've got the Coinbase trading competition that Taiki's hosting. We hosted a variational trading competition. But I just want to point out, I don't think anyone that's not sponsored by FOMO has ever said that traders are going to be the new celebrities. It just hasn't happened yet. So, I don't know. I'm kind of taking the other side on this one.

20:57賭場心態與交易員名人化

20:57但你看像 Ansem 這種人，已經有超過百萬粉絲，已經超越了 CT（Crypto Twitter）。我朋友 Jez 有個理論叫『長期墮落』（long degeneracy），意思是當真實報酬率壓縮時，大家就會去找投機賭博，唯一能翻身的方式就是賭博。這其實我們常常聊，在加密圈你要嘛當莊家（像 BNB、Hyper 這種），要嘛就拿最熱門的籌碼。我自己以前也掉進過以太坊 DeFi 的中間曲線陷阱。不過賭場這個比喻真的很適合加密圈，因為我腦袋裡總有個賭場模型，看到圈內各種瘋狂現象都能對應到賭場裡的各種玩家：有玩輪盤的、有玩骰子的、有玩 21 點的，還有愛摺牌的華人，各種螃蟹。大家都在玩自己喜歡的遊戲，有些人就只想玩 meme 幣那一套，不想碰其他遊戲。我不是那種螃蟹，我不碰 meme 幣，我買 Pearl，完全不同。你是 21 點型的玩家，沒關係。But I guess, you know, like people like Ansem, right? He has like over a million followers. He's kind of transcended CT. And my friend Jez has this theory around like long degeneracy, where, you know, as real returns compress, people look for financial speculation to truly make it. And the only way to do so is via gambling. I mean, I feel like we always talk about this, right? Like in crypto, you either want to own the casino, which is like BNB, Hyper, et cetera, or the best casino chips. And, you know, I fell into the midcurve trap of, like, you know, deep Ethereum-based DeFi, you know. But I think, like, that casino analogy has served me so well in my career in crypto, and the reason that—I always have a mental construct for what crazy shit is going on in the space, is I just go back to my days in the casino, and I'm walking around, and there's the roulette guys over there. They like to just bet the numbers. You got the guys like the dice, and the guys who like the blackjack, a bit more studious. They want to study the numbers. You know, you got your Chinese with the—They want to fold the fucking cards and get the nines, huh? The different kinds of crabs. They're different kind of crabs, and they're all crabs. And I think, like, what I've realized is that in crypto, you have a similar thing where people just gravitate to certain games, and that's the games they like to play. Some people like to be in the trenches where new coins are just being made up, and it's just a picture. With a fucking catchphrase, and it's just attached to an influencer or not attached to an influencer. That's one game that they don't want to play the other games. They just want that game. I'm not one of those crabs. I'm not logging meme coins. I'm buying things like Pearl. It's very different. You're, you know, you're the blackjack guy, okay? That's fine. You can be the blackjack guy.

22:46我一直覺得 TGE（代幣發行）也是一種遊戲，有些人就愛賭 TGE 前幾天的波動，不管什麼垃圾幣，只要新上市就有人想玩。meme 幣也是一個分支，有些人就愛這種遊戲。至於交易員名人化，確實有很多人喜歡跟著真人操作，追漲殺跌。我們在傳統金融也看過這種現象，大家都想讀懂名人的動向，最後難免迎來崩盤，這其實很像加密圈。Dim 你怎麼看？But I think, like—You know, one of the games that I've always realized is the TGE game. Some people just love betting on that first few days of a TGE, and no matter what junk is TGEing, there will always be a market for a new listing. Like, inevitably, that will get some people attracted. I think the meme coin game is another one where it's like a segment there, and—Insofar as we're talking about, like, trader celebrities, there are a lot of people who like the game where there's real human personalities involved, and they want to ride them up and ride them down. And we saw this with Leopold in TradFi as well, where just the amount of, you know, attention and people trying to follow and read the tea leaves, and of course the inevitable downfall, which—was very kind of crypto-like in nature, came as well. What do you think, Tim?

23:37名人進化與螃蟹哲學

23:37我越想越覺得，真正的名人其實已經超越了螃蟹遊戲，還在裡面的才是螃蟹。大家都想進化離開這個生態，但唯一的辦法就是變成更強的螃蟹。你是龍蝦，我也是龍蝦，George 是龍蝦，我是想當龍蝦的螃蟹。大家其實都在追這些故事，不只是代幣本身，還有背後的人格、臉孔、推手。像 Ben Pasternak 就是結合加密創辦人和網紅女友的極致案例，每次幣價跌就拍私人飛機、Birkin 包，這已經變成大家腦中的迷因。Dim，這是你的 pasta 嗎？我們等等會聊到。Yeah, I think the more I'm thinking about this, celebrities have actually are the ones that are transcending this crab game, and the ones that are still in this game are the crabs. Everyone wants to evolve away from it. But the only way to vote from it is to become a better crab. So that's kind of how it works. Yeah, you're the lobster. I'm the lobster. George is a lobster. I'm the wannabe lobster. So, like, you know, in terms of, like, people liking to follow these stories of... Not just the tokens, but the personalities of the people, you know, making them and shilling them and, like, kind of more the personality, the face, the face behind the token. Obviously, we had, you know, Ben Pasternak as one example where it was this ridiculous combination of the crypto founder and the influencer girlfriend. Filming every fucking private jet and every Birkin bag that he was buying her every time, like the price was falling. And it feels like, you know, that's become a meme in people's head now. And, Dim, is this your pasta or am I already— We'll get to it. We'll get to the pasta.

24:47你看螃蟹的進化，純 ETH maxi 也會變。像 Bankless 的 David Hoffman，現在也變成很強的交易員，連死忠 ETH 派 Eric Conner 都說『算了，我要買 Boner coin』。大家最後都變螃蟹。Tom Lee 呢？他說等他達到 5% 之後會怎樣？可能會去冒更高風險。現在有些傳聞，他已經有四億美金現金在資產負債表上，隨時可以部署。他腦袋裡想的就是怎麼讓每股 ETH 價值最大化，讓自己手上的包最值錢。And I feel like the evolution of crabs, you can kind of see this with, like, the pure ETH maxis. I think David Hoffman of Bankless, he's a sold ETH and now he's—Actually, like a fantastic trader, right? Even Eric Conner, diehard ETH maxi, said, You know what? Screw this. I'm buying Boner coin, you know? And I feel like, you know, everyone just becomes a crab. What about Tom Lee? Tom Lee, well, he did mention that after he gets to 5%, you know, like, what is he going to do, you know? He might...Go out the risk curve, right? Well, there are some rumors about this, and yeah. So, I mean, look, he's reaching 5%. He just needs a couple hundred million, I think, to get there. I think he has $400 million in cash already in the balance sheet that he can deploy somewhere else. I think what he has in his head is how to increase ETH per share and how to make this bag that he has accumulated worth the most he can.

25:42ETH生態的王者遊戲

25:42現在坊間的傳聞是，大家都在想，既然已經有這樣的影響力，要怎麼用這個力量來當 ETH 生態的造王者，順便撐自己的包包。這感覺有點像 Paradigm 當年的左彎版本。如果你們還記得上一輪牛市，Paradigm 是最大的 ETH 持有者之一，可能有 5% 吧，雖然我不確定數字。他們的做法就是先把包包顧好，像 Tom Lee 現在顧 ETH 一樣，然後想辦法怎麼讓這包包更有價值。And the rumor in the street is that, you know, the idea now is like, how do I use this power that I've kind of created for myself to kingmaker projects in the ETH ecosystem and support my kind of original bag? So let's see where this kind of goes. I feel like this is like the left curve version of what Paradigm had. If you guys remember last cycle, Paradigm was the big ETH holder. They had—Probably a similar amount of ETH, maybe 5%, I don't know how much they had. But in essence, what they were doing was they secured the bag, same as Tom Lee has secured the ETH bag, and then they're just working to see, like, how can they support this bag.

26:19Paradigm 是右彎玩法，他們會參與 Reth、重寫 Ethereum 程式碼、投資 Uniswap v4，還會灌很多 LP 流動性進去，想辦法讓 Ethereum 看起來更強。而 Tom Lee 就比較直接，可能就是狂轟 Aave 或其他幣，也許這種方式更有效，因為 Paradigm 好像後來就放棄了。他也是 Worldcoin 的支持者吧？我記得他有買 ORB，或是有贊助。也許他對其他幣也會做類似的事，誰知道呢？So. You know, Paradigm was the right curve version where they were getting into Reth and rewriting the Ethereum code and, you know, going into Uniswap and making the V4, make sure it's good and put a bunch of LP liquidity into it. How else can we make Ethereum look good? And then you got Tom Lee, who's literally just like trying to maybe just blast a bunch of Aave and other coins and—Maybe that's going to work better because Paradigm seems to have given up at some point. He's a supporter of Worldcoin, right? I think he bought the ORBs, yeah, or was a co-sponsor of that. So maybe he does similar stuff for other coins, I don't know.

26:54有趣的是，現在 ETH 失去了 BMNR 的買盤，而 Tom Lee 開始專注在 BMNR 本身。也許這會出現一種有趣的避險策略，比如做多 BMNR、放空 ETH，或是放空 ETH、做多生態裡有趣的資產，等著他去合作、拉盤。我現在就在觀察這些動向，大家都在讀茶葉渣，想看這些免費資金會流去哪裡。But something interesting that's coming out of this is, okay, ETH is losing that bid that it had from BMNR, and as Tom Lee is starting to focus on BMNR itself. Maybe there's like an interesting kind of pair trade of long BMNR, short ETH, or something interesting like that, where—or you short ETH, you long ecosystem assets that are interesting in anticipation of him doing partnerships and stuff. I don't know, but that's something that I'm kind of looking into right now. We're going to be reading the tea leaves and trying to figure out where all this free money is coming, all the ATM money is going to go.

27:24聽起來 Tom Lee 也快變成螃蟹了。他現在真的很螃蟹，還有那個小頭髮，超有螃蟹 vibe。It sounds like Tom Lee is also becoming a crab. He's definitely crab with, like, the little hair on top. Yeah, he's crabbing it up, yeah.

27:32Pasta時間：幣圈冷笑話

27:32我們還有時間來點 pasta 嗎？來吧，pasta 時間。我忘了誰先來了，喔對，這是我的。你有沒有想過，一個小小的精子，最後竟然會變成一個虧損的加密貨幣交易員？謝謝你們笑了，至少有一個人懂這梗。Do we have time for pastas? Let's do pastas. Yeah, so I forgot who's first. Oh yeah, this is mine. It's crazy how a tiny sperm can turn into an unprofitable crypto trader. Thank you for laughing, by the way. I think one guy got it. Yeah, I got one guy.

27:51這梗有點弱啦，但我自己覺得蠻好笑的。其實想想也蠻神奇的，這麼小的東西最後會變成我們這些人。你說什麼虧損？你最近不是表現超好嗎？我看到 Evan 發推說，誰能想到這一輪最強交易員竟然是 Dave Hoffman 跟日本 GCR，真的很扯。It's weak. Dude, I don't know. I thought it was hilarious. It is pretty crazy how that one tiny thing can become us, you know? I mean, why are you talking about unprofitable? Like, you're the outperformer lately. I mean, I saw this tweet from Evan saying, Who would have thought that Dave Hoffman and Japanese GCR would be the two top traders of this cycle? I mean, kind of incredible.

28:12Kalshi 事件與預測市場

28:12我同事 Han Soler 發了一則推文，說他從咖啡店聽到 Kalshi 今天賣了 5 億美金的咖啡，超扯。這其實是在影射 Kalshi 的永續合約醜聞。後來好像證實，或是從資料看出來，Kalshi 的交易量其實大部分都不是自然產生的，只有幾百萬美金的未平倉，剩下都是刷量。我們原本還打算跟 Kalshi 合辦一場永續合約競賽，結果他們因為這些風波，最後一刻在新加坡臨時退出了。Ah yes, my colleague Han Soler posted, I heard from the barista that Calshi did $500 million of coffee sales today. Incredible stuff. So this is kind of alluding to Kalshi's perp scandal. I guess it turns out, I don't know if they admitted it or it just became clear through some of the data that a lot of the volume was, let's say, not organic in Kalshi. I think there was like just a few million dollars of OI and a ton of wash trading. Fun fact, we were actually going to host. A perpetuals competition with Kalshi, but they unfortunately pulled out last minute here in Singapore just because of everything that's going on with their perps platform.

28:46不過預測市場大家還是很愛投錢進去，感覺每一輪都越來越大。我記得 Polymarket 最近也在募資。預測市場平台本身很棒，但永續合約這塊好像還沒真的起來。你有沒有感覺到競爭壓力，Justin？我們其實不太覺得有競爭，現在已經是不同層級了。So, I mean, prediction markets are still something that people seem to want to keep putting money in. It seems like the rounds are getting ever bigger. I think Polymarket was closing. Prediction market platform is great, but the perps I don't think has really—Caught on just yet, so. Yeah. I'm actually, are you feeling a little competition, Justin? You want to make sure? We don't, I don't really think we don't feel competitive. We're just kind of in a different league at this point, so we don't. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

29:18預測市場、Hyperliquid 與選擇權新戰場

29:18其實我想問的是，現在預測市場都想切入永續合約，然後 Hyperliquid 推出了 HIP-4。我最近也遇到一些 builder 在做 HIP-4，你覺得這會成功嗎？會不會帶動 HYPE 下一波行情？我們都聊過估值問題，也許這想法太中庸了。我這週跟一些 Hyperliquid 生態的 builder 聊過，HIP-3 明顯就是壟斷結構，HIP-4 也沒好到哪裡去。Actually, one thing I wanted to ask is, obviously we have prediction markets trying to enter perps, and now Hyperliquid has HIP-4. And I've met some builders trying to build, you know, for HIP-4. Do you think that will be a success and that could drive, you know, the next leg higher in HYPE? Because, you know, I think we all talked about the valuation, right? Maybe that's too midcurve, but— I mean, I've talked to some of the builders this week that are deep into the Hyperliquid ecosystem, and obviously HIP-3... You know, I can even talk from personal experience. It is clearly just monopoly structurally. So HIP4 is not much better.

29:54HIP-4 現在還沒什麼 traction，因為介面不是預測市場 degens 想要的，跟永續合約的 fit 差很多。HIP-5 可能會是選擇權，這應該是下一步。Hyperliquid 做得最好的還是核心的永續產品，其他像 EVM、穩定幣那些都還沒做起來。我覺得 Q1 會看到很多永續平台開始探索選擇權，但如果要把 order book 搬上鏈會很難。我們也在考慮把 RFQ 模型帶進選擇權，把傳統金融的流動性搬上鏈。接下來大家要搶的市場應該就是選擇權了。It feels like it hasn't gotten much traction yet because the user interface is not really what the prediction market degens are wanting. So as a fit, it's nowhere near what the Perpetual fit has been. And then I guess HIP 5 is going to be the options is maybe what's coming. But it seems like Hyperliquid is, on one thing, exceptionally well, which is this, like, core per product. And then these other things like the EVM and all those other pieces haven't really materialized, even the stablecoin side, so. I think definitely the trend we're going to see in Q1 is a lot of these perp platforms exploring options. I do think it's going to be very challenging for them if they're trying to recreate the order book on-chain, but it's something we're looking at bringing our RFQ model to for options and just porting that TradFi liquidity on-chain. But I think the next market that we're all going to be competing over is really going to be options. So we'll see.

30:50幣圈八卦：Orbio、創辦人與 DAO 治理

30:50好，下一個 pasta，這個是來自幣圈戰壕的笑話。Orbio 是一個發在 Robinhood Chain 上的幣，表現超好，是個 AI 幣，市值衝到一億美金。大家都很開心，結果創辦人突然去追蹤一個叫 Prosperity Time 的奢華手錶禮賓服務，然後幣價在幾小時內就跌了 50%。這種情況在幣圈超常見，創辦人一賺到錢就開始亂花，這次可能只是追蹤個帳號，但大家都很敏感，看到就反射性賣出。All right, next pasta with them. Okay, this was a funny one from the trenches. So, for the ones that don't know, Orbio was a coin that was deployed on Robinhood Chain. It actually did super well. It was a crypto AI coin, and it got to 100 million. It was trading pretty well. Everyone was really happy about it, you know, kumbaya, and then—The founder goes and follows Prosperity Time, which I guess is a luxury watch concierge. And the token—this is actually kind of in the middle of the move. I think the token dropped like 50% in like a couple hours. Actually, wow. I mean, if you're—Believing in the founder, and then you see that he's suddenly following a luxury watch company, you kind of... We've seen this before many times in crypto, where founders just make a little bit of money. I don't know if this guy clearly just followed an account, this poor guy, but we've seen so many founders go and splash money as soon as their token kind of goes up that, you know, I think it was like... Instant reflex.

31:47這就像 DAO 治理一樣，最後都在投票創辦人要紅色還是黃色 Lambo。這是幣圈的進化史，從 Birkin 包到 Patek 手錶。大家都懂這種梗。I mean, it's going to go from another Birkin for Evelyn, it's going to go to another Patek for Yash. Right. That's the next evolution. It reminds me of the DAO governance is really just, do you want—should the founder get a red Lambo or a yellow Lambo?

32:04幣圈自嘲：Cardano、AI與慢速進步

32:04我最近看到一個超好笑的。大家都知道我們很愛開 Ada 跟 Charles Hoskinson 的玩笑，他本人也上過我們節目，大家都玩得很開心。最近 OpenAI 跟 Anthropic 都在討論 AI 要不要放慢腳步，結果 Toly 發推說：我呼籲所有區塊鏈都慢下來。Charles 馬上回：你覺得我過去五年在幹嘛？他真的很有運動家精神，能自嘲很棒。All right. So I saw this one and, like, you know, those of us who have been watching the show for a long time know that we like to sometimes play with Ada and Charles Hoskinson. He's even come on the show gracefully, and we've had fun with him as well. But I couldn't believe this one. So I saw this very recently. You know, OpenAI and Anthropic are infamously in this discussion of, should we slow down the progress of AI? And Toly just, you know, tweets, I'm calling on all blockchains to slow down. And Charles says, What do you think I've been doing for the last five years? He's a good sport. Yeah.

32:45Charles 能靠 ADA 社群變成億萬富翁，還能自嘲，真的很厲害。把魔法網路錢變成現實世界資產，這才是真正的 RWA meta。大家都在把資產上鏈，總要有人把錢帶回現實世界吧。Yeah, I mean, I love the, at least we can laugh at ourselves sometimes. And I think Charles has managed to, you know, become a multi-billionaire through just—The ADA and community there, so the fact that he can, you know, laugh about this is great. Yeah. Yeah, turn magic internet money into real-world assets, right? Real-world assets, for sure. That's the real RWA meta. Someone has to do the other side, right? We're bringing assets on-chain. Someone has to bring them off-chain after. Yeah, yeah, you're right, you're right.

33:14展望明年：牛市還在嗎？

33:14剩下五分鐘，大家要不要輪流講一下對明年加密市場的看法？牛市是不是又啟動了？我覺得未來會看到資產分化，少數優質資產表現突出，其他就一般般。這是市場成熟的自然過程。我覺得 Bitcoin 會有表現，去年我們還在討論為什麼 Bitcoin 跑輸黃金，結果 10-10 事件後一切都變了。要讓 Bitcoin 持續上漲，還是得靠黃金敘事發酵，這是我觀察的重點。In the last five or so minutes, do you guys want to just go down the line and share if we're optimistic for next year for crypto? Do we think the bull market's kicked off again? Are we good to go? Maybe we can start there. Yeah, sure. I think we're going to keep having this kind of, like, dispersion of incredible assets and just the rest of the market. I think it's a natural kind of maturity process of any market. I think Bitcoin will have its day. I mean, last year we were kind of talking about why Bitcoin is, and this was before 10-10, why Bitcoin was underperforming gold so hard. Then 10-10 happened and obviously this kind of unraveled. I think as soon as we start seeing, we need the gold narrative to be picking up for Bitcoin to have a sustainable move up. So that's what I'm kind of looking for to identify kind of the next leg of all of this, but—

34:03總體來說我偏多，覺得 60K 就是底部，現在只是在等好的進場點。現在資產沒有特別便宜，所以我會比較謹慎挑選。很多資產其實已經很合理甚至偏貴，估值很高。Bitcoin 這輪跌幅只有 50%，不像上次有 75%，所以我有點擔心這次牛市會不會沒那麼猛。不過我還是看好 Bitcoin，也很期待像 Zcash 這種資產。Hyperliquid 雖然貴但產品很強。我覺得 AI+Crypto 今年可能真的會有新東西出現，大家都在等下一個爆點。I'm broadly bullish. I think we've put in the bottom at 60K, and I'm just looking for interesting points to re-enter. I don't see assets being, like, super cheap right now for me to do that, but yeah, I'm looking for spots to be strategic and enter. Yeah, I'm pretty selective. I think a lot of assets, to your point, are just very fairly valued or even overpriced or trading at very high multiples. Bitcoin, I'm a little concerned it didn't go down enough to really experience a really energetic bull run like we had last cycle. We only went down about 50%, so I wouldn't be surprised. Only down 50%, guys. Well, before that was 75, so it's another 50% decline. It felt like a pretty big decline when it was going from 110 to 60 in like a month to me, but yeah. Fair enough. But yeah, I think Bitcoin will do okay, but nothing too incredible. And I'm, you know, excited about assets like Zcash. I think Hyperliquid's expensive, but obviously a very good product there. But I think there's going to be something new in the AI crypto realm. I mean, we've all been kind of saying that for a few years now, and I think this could be the year where something kicks off there. So I'm looking for the next thing.

35:11我覺得市場越來越聰明，會漲的資產都是有道理的。以前大家都靠不信任、每次漲就賣，搞金融虛無主義，但這一輪也許你要相信對的資產才會賺。如果你拿錯幣就會被割。其實我對 perpdexes 很樂觀。當然，事後看都會說對的資產會漲，這是廢話。重點是要想哪些資產會像螃蟹一樣自然演化，如果能預測到就贏了。Yeah, I guess my view is I think the markets are getting smarter over time, and the things that are going up are going up for the right reasons. And perhaps in previous cycles, people got rewarded for not believing in things, to like sell every pump and, you know, the whole financial nihilism thing. But maybe this cycle, you will get rewarded for believing in the right assets. If you hold the wrong coins, you'll probably get wrecked. But, you know, I'm pretty optimistic. Like, perpdexes. I mean, you can always say that, you know, the right assets will do well because in retrospect, those are the right assets. Yeah, I think the coins that will go up will go up. Exactly, that's my thesis. I guess, like, the way to make it more useful is just think about what are the crabs. What is the crab shape in which things will just keep naturally evolving to? And if we can predict that. Mr. Thicky will have blessed us with quite a good thought.

36:04我自己感覺底部已經過了，投機又回來了。我很喜歡 Robinhood 最近買了 2500 萬美金的 BTC，雖然不多，但至少他們開始加倉，這種新聞很久沒見了。現在市場氣氛明顯熱起來，恐懼貪婪指數已經到 70，幾個月前還只有 9、10。這輪牛市比大家預期的快，很多人還以為會完美複製四年週期，結果底部早就過了。市場本來就該進化，不然太容易被預測。我會繼續做多。謝謝大家來現場，很多人跟我們說很愛這個 podcast，這也是我們繼續做下去的動力，下次見！Yeah, I mean, my own feeling is certainly like the bottom is in. I do feel like speculation is back on the menu. I like that Robinhood bought 25 million of BTC. It's not a lot, it's not a lot, but just the fact that they're adding to their balance sheet, we haven't had those headlines in a while. So it does feel like things are frothing up. I saw the fear greed index is kind of 70 now, which a few months ago was like 9, 10 out of 100. So I think we're in a better part of the cycle. There are some people who got sidelined thinking that we were going to perfectly match this four-year cycle that was going to, you know, hit the bottom. Was it supposed to be like—Yesterday, I think, was the one-year bottom. Supposed to be the bottom, yeah. So obviously we've kind of accelerated that, which I think is very expected. Things should evolve a little bit, otherwise it becomes, like, you know, way too predictable. And yeah, staying long. So hope you guys enjoyed. Thanks for coming up to us. We get so many of you telling us you love the podcast, keeps us going, you know, we—We try to do it as often as we can, so we'll keep it going for you guys, and see you at the next one.

37:18結語與感謝

37:18謝謝大家！Thank you, guys.