投機時代：一切皆可交易（Robinhood、Dragonfly、Post Fiat、Selini）

0:00亞洲與美國投資者行為差異

0:00好，那我們現在明顯少了一位主持人，我相信 Jordi 正在路上。所以我就先開始這個討論。我是 Dragonfly 的 Rob Hadick，今天我們要聊的是「投機時代」。現在很明顯我們正處於一個特殊的時刻。剛才我和 Alex 在後台聊到，現在美國以外，特別是亞洲，很多交易其實是由年紀較大的人主導的。在韓國、日本，還有亞洲很多地方，這其實不是 Gen Z 或 Z 世代在主導的現象。但在美國，現在市場很明顯是由 Z 世代和千禧世代推動的。基於這個現象，我想聊聊未來當一切都能被交易時會發生什麼事。Johann，你可以先談談什麼叫做「一切都能被交易」嗎？你覺得接下來會有哪些市場變得可交易？All right, so we are conspicuously missing a moderator, which I believe Jordy is on his way. So I'm going to kick off the conversation. So Rob Haddick at Dragonfly here, and we're talking about, like, the speculation age, which I think it's very clear right now that we're in sort of a moment in time. Alex and I were talking backstage about how a lot of the trading outside of the U.S., especially in Asia, is actually driven by people who are older. So in Korea, Japan, a lot of parts of Asia, it's actually not necessarily a Gen Z or a Zoomer thing that's happening at the moment, where in the U.S., it's very much a kind of Zoomer and millennial-driven market right now. So with that, I want to talk a little bit about what happens in the future as everything becomes tradable. Johann, maybe you can kick us off and talk a little bit about what is, or what does it mean for everything to become tradable. What do you think are the next markets that will be tradable?

1:09這是個大哉問。我們上週才在韓國，真的看到你剛剛描述的現象。很多現場觀眾都在做筆記，努力吸收我們分享的資訊，確保自己能掌握所有 alpha 來交易。這和我們去其他市場的感受很不一樣。總體來說，我們很興奮看到這些人對於代幣化資產很有興趣，因為對他們來說，這樣更容易取得、更容易轉移，他們可以很簡單地為任何資產創建錢包，還能分開管理資產，或把資產拿來當抵押品、交叉保證金做現貨交易。這些代幣化的討論真的在改變人們的交易方式。Yeah, that's a big question. I think, you know, we were in Korea last week, and I saw exactly what you were describing. A lot of the audience was actually taking notes, trying to really get all the information that we are talking about and making sure that they can get all the alpha to be able to trade. And so that's really interesting. It's a bit different from some of the other markets that we are going to. But overall, what we've been excited about is that a lot of these people are excited about tokenized assets because for them it's easier to access, it's easier to move, they can create wallets very simply for any type of assets and segregate the asset or use them as collateral or cross margin for spot. So all of these tokenized discussions are really changing the way that people are trading.

1:55現在的問題是，為什麼我們的股票代幣只針對美國股票和 ETF？我認為代幣化其實可以應用在任何東西。最早的例子是穩定幣，現在，喔，主持人來了！我們現在也認為可以擴展到不同的交易所，讓全球更多人都能參與更多交易所。如果我問你，明天怎麼在新加坡交易所買股票？大多數人根本不知道怎麼做，或是要付很多手續費。我們認為代幣化可以改變這一切。那為什麼只停在股票？私募股權、不動產，這些都會變得更容易交易，而且不只是人類，連你的 AI 代理人也能參與。The question now is like, why are all our stock tokens available just for U.S. stocks and ETF? I think that tokenization can work for anything. It used to work for stablecoin, and that was really the first example. And now, oh, we have a moderator. Let's go. And now we think we can expand to different exchanges so that we can give access to everyone to more exchanges across the world. If I ask you tomorrow, how do you buy a stock on the Singaporean exchange? You know, most people don't know how to do that, or they have to pay a lot of fees. So we think we can change that with tokenization. And then why stop just at stocks? You know, private equity, real estate, all of this become a lot more easy to trade. And not just for the human, but also for your AI agent.

2:42一切可交易化與市場新樣貌

2:42大家好，很抱歉我遲到了，很高興你們已經開始討論。我很期待聽到三位不同的觀點。我們有專業投資人、有經營重要企業的營運者，還有我很欣賞的創辦人兼思想家 Alex。我不知道你們剛剛有沒有自我介紹？我們剛剛已經介紹過彼此，也聊到哪些市場最有流動性、接下來什麼會變得可交易。我覺得現在其實已經什麼都能交易了。我們真的需要更多可交易的東西嗎？我覺得我們會看到一個「過剩」的狀態。像我之前去巴哈馬參加 CBDC 會議，現場的氛圍跟你想像的很不一樣。歐洲市場現在把穩定幣視為威脅，也覺得 Visa 和 Mastercard 可能會侵蝕歐洲的金融主權。所以我認為加密世界裡還有很多我們沒看到規模化的外匯交換或固定收益商品的代幣化。如果你看歐洲和其他地區，債券市場其實更有流動性。事實上，代幣化如果你去算每筆交易的成本節省，股票市場其實已經非常有效率，從 90 年代末開始，買賣價差就很小。但像證券化的信用卡債、企業應收帳款這種比較冷門的資產，我覺得很快也會上鏈，這很可能會因為未來兩年 CBDC 推出而加速。這是大家現在比較少討論的。Hi, everybody. Sorry I'm a little bit late. I'm glad you guys started without me. So I'm excited to get all three perspectives. We have a professional investor, we have a, you know, operator of one of the most important businesses, and a founder and thinker that I love a lot, Alex. So I don't know if you guys have talked a little bit about... Any introductions yet? Where are we? We did introductions, and we were talking about what happens, or what are the most liquid markets, what's becoming tradable next. I mean, everything's already tradable. I feel like, do we have enough things tradable, or do we need more? I think we're going to get a preponderance, like, you know, I went down to the Bahamas to one of these CBDC conferences, and it's very, very different than what you might think. You know, European markets are viewing stablecoins as a threat. They view Visa and Mastercard as potentially encroaching on European financial sovereignty. And so I think there's a really surprising world in crypto where we haven't really seen scaled FX swaps or large-scale tokenization of fixed income instruments. And if you look at Europe and you look at the rest of the world, the debt markets are much more liquid there. And actually, tokenization, if you, like, do the math on the cost savings per trade, equities are a very, very efficient market, right? Like, ever since the late '90s, you've had just very, very tight bid-offer spreads, whereas some of the more esoteric assets, like, you know, securitized credit card debt or even corporate financial receivables, I think, are going to come on chain, and probably due to the launch of CBDCs in the next two years. I think that's probably something people are thinking less about.

4:22另一個重點是，現在預測市場正在興起。預測市場的故事就是你可以為任何東西創造市場，不只是股票，還有像 H100 交付這種實體事件，甚至可以直接避險天氣風險等等。這方面我們還在早期階段。以 Robinhood 的角度來看，預測市場上季的營收甚至比加密貨幣還多。但目前主要還是運動和政治這些核心應用。不過我在和別人討論時，已經看到這種長尾型的保險和避險應用開始出現。所以你問現在是不是什麼都能交易？我覺得還沒，還有很長的長尾風險部位大家還沒辦法參與。Yeah, I think it's honestly, because the other point too is, so we have this rise of prediction markets, right? And, like, part of the story around prediction markets has been that you're able to create a market for everything. You're able to get much more exposure, much more direct exposure to whether it's not just in equity, but, you know, actual H100 deliveries, right? Or you're able to get much more direct exposure to hedging out certain types of weather risk, et cetera. And we're a little bit in the early stages of that. I mean, obviously, you know, from a Robinhood perspective, now prediction markets last quarter were a bigger market than crypto in terms of revenue. And, but it is still very much sort of, you know, kind of these core use cases of sports and then, you know, politics. But we're starting to see, at least in the conversations I'm having, the early days of that longer-tail type of insurance market and hedge and use cases, et cetera, come as well. And so when you say, like, okay, well, is everything tradable today? I actually don't think that's yet true. There's a long, long tail of exposure that people don't yet have.

5:22投資與投機的界線與市場存活

5:22我們要區分兩件事。Robinhood 當然會服務使用者，無論他們想要什麼產品，你們都會設計出最好的版本給他們。但其實「投資」和「投機」是不同的。投資的資產通常是有所有權、有股權的，不是零和遊戲；但像預測市場這種衍生性商品，就是二選一的結果，有人贏就有人輸，中間還有人收手續費，這種就是 PVP（玩家對玩家），和大家一起投資的感覺很不一樣。不過也不完全是這樣，因為有時候會有自然的多方和空方。如果你看期貨合約，現在大概只有 25% 到 33% 的期貨合約能存活下來，大多數期貨產品推出後很快就死掉，沒有成交量、沒人有興趣，雖然大家花很多力氣推廣。能存活下來的，幾乎都是因為有自然的避險需求，有人天生需要放空。And let's differentiate between two things. So you have, I mean, Robinhood will obviously serve their customer and whatever, you know, thing they want, you'll just design a great version of that and try to give it to them. But you have, you know, investing, and investing is sometimes different than speculation. And specifically, the type of assets that you invest in are going to be things where you have ownership, equity. They're not zero-sum games, while derivatives, like a prediction market. It's a yes, no, you know, binary outcome. Someone's going to win, the other side's money, and someone's going to charge a fee in the middle, which is a very different sort of, like, PVP than, you know, are we all investing in? Not necessarily. There's a natural long and a natural short, right? Like, it's PVP if it's, you know, whatever, like it's a sports game, right? It's not PVP if there's, like, a natural hedger, right? So if you look at— Futures contracts today, something like 25 to 33% of futures contracts actually survive. The vast majority of futures get launched and die very, very quickly. They never have any, any, you know, volume, no interest whatsoever, even though people put a lot of work into trying to go and market them. And when they do survive, it's almost always because there's a natural Hedger. There's someone who's naturally short.

6:34你剛剛提到運動博彩，這其實已經很長久、很穩定了。我覺得這裡面不一定有自然避險方，但娛樂價值本身就是一種自然避險。人們去拉斯維加斯、參與運動博彩，很多時候是為了娛樂和社交，和朋友一起看 NFL Sunday、一起下注，這種社交娛樂價值很高。但其實也有真的需要避險運動結果的情境。像之前有個電商公司在世界盃期間，為了預先採購可能奪冠國家的商品，他們就需要避險風險。雖然這類需求在運動博彩總量裡可能只佔很小一部分，但我們還是會把它當成一個市場來經營。我們提供數千種不同合約，讓大家可以用各種方式避險自己的部位。像兩週前有一次利率變動，你可以選擇精準挑股票或選擇權，也可以直接用這些合約避險整個投資組合。我們就是希望讓大家能有這種選擇，這也是為什麼我們覺得這些合約很重要。You're saying, like, the non-natural trade markets die out, but you mentioned sports betting. Obviously, that's been, like, you know, very sustainable for a very long time, and I don't really think there's necessarily—well, I guess you could say that. The entertainment value of having a bet on during the sports is a natural hedge. But there's also, and I don't want to, I'm sure these guys have points too, but there are, there's an entertainment value. Like, there's a reason that people go to, you know, Vegas still or whatever, and there's a lot of entertainment value on the social aspect of how you engage with sports markets and, you know, with your friends and, you know, when you're watching NFL Sunday, et cetera. But there also are actual, like— reasons for hedging sports outcomes, right? So there was a trade in a highly publicized, but where an e-commerce company during the World Cup wanted to pre-buy a bunch of inventory for a potential winner of that World Cup, and they needed to essentially hedge. I understand, but it sounds, I mean, I don't know if you guys think, I mean, it sounds like such a small percentage of the sports betting volumes may be natural. Do you guys think about Is this something we're offering that is like a natural market, or is this just like a game that people can sort of bet on and it's more like they're just gambling? Do you differentiate? No, for us, we see it as a market. I think there is a sports part, but there is also thousands of different contracts that we are offering. We see people being able to hedge their position. In way different ways. So, for example, you know, two weeks ago there was a rate change for credit. You can be a really good trader and pick the exact right stocks or the exact right options to know what's going to happen after the rate change, or you can use one of these contracts and hedge your entire portfolio. So I think that's what we want to give access to, and I think that's why we think it's really important to have that on your account.

8:42投機時代的社會與教育影響

8:42Robinhood 在加密貨幣領域的執行力真的很強。不過你們畢竟是上市公司，要對股東負責，要最大化營收、產品和手續費。我想請 Alex 來談談，因為你一直是很棒的社會評論者，特別是 AI 和資產型態的變化。我們也聊過短影音內容，這幾乎成了所有人的必備鉤子。我很佩服現場還有人沒在滑手機，專心聽討論，這在現在很少見。你怎麼看這個投機時代？我們是不是已經走太遠？像 Kylie Jenner 在 IG 上推廣運動博彩，這會不會太誇張？I mean, Robinhood has done an incredible job, by the way, even in crypto, great execution. But I know you guys are a public company. You have your shareholders. You have to maximize revenue. You have to get, you know, the best product, the best fees that you can maximize. I want to bring in Alex a little bit because, you know, you've been a great social commentator about how AI and how, like, all these sort of assets are changing. Short-form content is something we've spoken about as, you know, just this inevitable hook that everyone is—I mean, I'm, like, impressed that— Not everyone is looking at their phone. Like some people have the attention span to actually, like, listen to a panel, but that's quite rare, right? Like, so if you're looking at this, like, speculation age and you're thinking about, are we going too far as a society where people are, you know, you got Kylie Jenner on Instagram advertising sports betting, and is this going too far?

9:31我認為 Robinhood 其實是把投資變成電商的先驅。它把投資流程變得像在 Amazon 購物一樣簡單。如果你這樣想，我們其實還很早期。你看中國的社群媒體，很多人拍短影音賣牙刷、賣各種衣服。如果你把這個模式套用到資產上，想像未來有網紅同時賣 15 種永續合約或預測市場產品，這種使用者流程我們根本還沒開始。只有 Robinhood 真正做到這一點。所以我覺得現在還不算晚。我一直強調，我們需要大量流動性的穩定幣永續合約和投機市場，因為這樣才能讓高負債社會有流動的資本市場。政府也開始意識到這點，目標是讓穩定幣供給達到 4 兆美元。要達到這個目標，勢必要有大量投機需求湧現。所以我認為現在還只是剛開始。I think we're— I think Robinhood is actually the company that pioneered turning investing into e-commerce. You know, it turned it into a checkout similar to an Amazon product. And if you think about it that way, we're very early in terms of, if you look at e-commerce and just, you know, look at Chinese social media, for example, there are People who are making short-term videos selling toothbrushes and all kinds of, you know, different outfits. I think if you imagine that with assets, you know, influencer selling 15 different perpetual swap products or prediction market products, we haven't even scratched the surface in terms of the user flow. of e-commerce going into trading. Only Robinhood is really, like, touching that. And so, do I think it's late? No, I don't think so. I think I've spoken extensively about how we want a lot of liquidity in Stablecoin-backed perpetual swap and speculative markets as a function of wanting liquid capital markets in a heavily indebted society. And so the government's got the scent and saying, we want to get to four trillion dollars of stablecoin supply. It's like, how do you get to four trillion dollars of stable supply without a massive surge in speculative interests? From here. So I think the answer is we're pretty early innings.

10:56全民投資與全球金融教育

10:56還有一點，如果你看美國人持有股票的比例，Robinhood 剛推出時（2013、2015 年），只有約 13% 的美國人持有股票，比例非常低。到了 2026 年，這個數字已經來到 60%。現在美國還有「Invest in America」帳戶，也就是所謂的 Trump 帳戶，每個新生兒政府都會給 1,000 美元投資到市場裡。這些人一出生就會變成投資人，這真的很令人興奮。也許有些使用者一開始是從迷因幣或預測市場開始，但最後這會變成他們對財務結果的保險意識，開始學習相關知識，慢慢開設退休帳戶，持續投資。我認為這應該推廣到全球。美國其實是市場參與度最高的國家。如果你看拉美或歐洲很多國家，投資市場的人很少，這對經濟很傷，也讓大家沒辦法思考退休和財務規劃。I think there is another point. Sorry if I cut you, but if you think about the evolution of people owning equity, I'm going to talk about the U.S. because that's where I have numbers. But back when Robinhood just got launched in 2013, 2015, the amount of Americans that owned equity was in the 13%. Very small number, right? Now we are back in 2026. The number is about 60%. We also now have the Invest in America account, or Trump account, for every new child. We are going to give $1,000 from the government that is going to be invested in the market. Now these people are going to be turned into investors right away when they are born. And that, I think, the part is really exciting. Maybe you have some customers that are starting their financial journey by trading a meme coin or trading a market on predictions. But at the end of the day, it turns into their brain like the insurance for financial outcomes, and they start learning about it. They start following education content, and then slowly they start opening a retirement account and continue to invest in their journey. And I think that's something that we should do at a global level. The U.S. is actually the population with the most activity on the market. If you think about LATAM or countries in Europe, like a very small number are investing in the market, and that's hurting their economy. And it's also preventing the people to think about their retirement and their financial journey.

12:26當然，美國很特殊，因為有美元這個全球儲備貨幣，美國金融市場也等於是出口產品，這就變成一種「龐氏」結構，股市表現和總統大選都綁在一起，大家都要支持這個體系。你們讓更多人能參與，確實是讓這個「美國股市龐氏」的好處更民主化。這是不是美國獨有的現象？我不同意。如果你看歐盟，我是法國人，聽口音就知道。退休是很大的問題，市場設計讓你很難投資 CAC 40（法國股市指數）。大家都覺得反正 64 歲就有退休金，但因為我們年輕時沒接受財務教育，等到 64 歲才發現根本不夠。這個思維要改變，應該成年就開始投資、累積財富。I mean, of course, the U.S. is a very unique country in the fact that they have the U.S. dollar, and insofar as that is the reserve currency and the financial market of the U.S. is really kind of what's being exported, it just becomes a natural Ponzi where the stock market is equated with winning presidencies, and you have to— Just, you know, always support that. So the fact that you guys have allowed broader access obviously is, you know, just democratizing the benefit of this, like, natural Ponzi of the stock market in the U.S., right? Is it kind of unique for the U.S. that they have this ability? Well, I don't agree. You know, if you think about the EU, I'm French. You can hear with the accent, so. Retirement is a huge issue, right? And the market is made in a way that it's very difficult for you to invest in the CAC 40, right? And the issue is that the population just think like, it's fine, I have retirement coming as soon as I get 64 or whatever the age is. But because we don't have financial education, because we don't have all this when we are young, We just wait and we think that everything is going to be okay, and you turn out at 64 and you realize you don't have enough. What we need is to change the paradigm. You need to start thinking, as soon as you get to adult age, to start investing and to start building your wealth.

13:44從迷因幣到加密投資循環

13:44我同意你的看法，像迷因幣這種「狗狗幣」常常是很多人進入加密世界的起點。我不知道現場有多少人是因為這些有趣的東西才開始接觸加密，然後才發現還有更進階的資產，慢慢學會怎麼投資。我們來聊點更加密原生的話題，想請問 Rob，現在投機規模持續擴大，不管我們喜不喜歡，越來越多人開始下注、思考各種投機。從投資人的角度，你覺得這些趨勢會在哪些領域被捕捉？哪些類型的公司會受惠？預測市場表現很好，那你們在看哪些新投資或既有投資？No, I agree with you, and I do see how, like, even the silly meme coins, like, you know, you're buying a dog coin. It is often the introduction to a lot of people in crypto. I don't know how many people here first, you know, maybe came in through something silly and then eventually realized like, oh, there's this more sophisticated stuff, and you start taking steps in, and then you kind of understand that, you know, there's better assets and you get into those. So I agree with that. Let's take a bit of a more crypto-specific turn. I want to ask Rob. You know, when you look at the inevitability of the amount of speculation, you know, whether we like it or not, it's continuing to grow. More and more people are being brought into betting on different things and thinking about it more than, you know, ever before. From an investor standpoint, where do you see that kind of being captured the most, and what kind of businesses? Obviously, prediction markets are— You know, have done extremely well. What are you looking at for new investments and for existing investments?

14:44我們看到迷因幣有一波又一波的循環。幾年前那一波迷因幣熱潮，大家都很興奮，Phantom 還因為 swap 交易量大，估值衝到 30 億美元。很多人賠錢，市場經歷一波洗牌，迷因幣交易量一度歸零，然後又開始新一輪循環。這種迷因幣循環常常會領先其他山寨幣甚至比特幣的行情，雖然比特幣現在相關性越來越低。但每一輪高點都比前一輪低，因為大多數人都在賠錢。所以我在思考要投資什麼、什麼是能長久的生意時，重點是要能把這些注意力和投機熱潮轉化成長期有生產力的資金。怎麼讓這些資金變得有生產力？怎麼讓使用者在應用上的體驗變得有價值？這是 Robinhood 做得很好的地方，因為 Robinhood 剛起步時……I think for us, there's what we've seen. So you talked about meme coins, right? And there's been these, like, sort of meme coin cycles, right? And you looked at the meme coin cycle that happened, you know, call it, you know, whatever, a couple of years ago, and that was sort of the top. There was a lot of excitement about meme coins. Phantom raised a $3 billion valuation round, like literally on the fact that they were doing so much revenue based on swaps, right? A lot of people lost money. There was kind of a flush out in the market. You know, we didn't have meme coins that kind of very little trading for a little bit. And then we've kind of seen that same cycle happen over and over again. And often the meme coin cycle sort of Predates or precedes, like what is actual, like a cycle in like other alts and even Bitcoin, although Bitcoin is getting a little less correlated. But it continues to be kind of a little bit of a lower, you know, sort of a lower top. Like it never quite hits the euphoria it has a couple years ago, and that's because the vast majority of people are losing money, right? And so. When I think about, okay, well, what do I want to invest in? Why, like, what is the durable business that exists? It needs to be able to bring that attention and that speculation to also have money that is productive over time. And how do we get that money to be productive? How do we get the experience with our application to be productive? This is something that Robinhood has done very well because, you know, the early days of Robinhood, I mean, we all know this.

16:07交易遊戲化與預測市場的爭議

16:07美國監管機構對於交易遊戲化有很多擔憂。那麼，交易遊戲化真的不好嗎？大家是不是因此賠了太多錢？我們是不是已經走得太遠了？現在大家開始思考，還有什麼其他產品可以幫助使用者的財務生活？這也是我們在投資公司時會思考的問題。There was so much concern with the regulators in the U.S. around gamification of trading. And is gamification of trading bad? Are people losing too much money? And, you know, have we gone too far, as you asked earlier, right? And now they've turned into like, okay, well, what are these other products we can provide to help people's financial lives? And so that's also what we think through when we are, you know, investing in companies.

16:30舉例來說，我們是 Polymarket 的大投資人，最近大家對 Polymarket 的擔憂主要是這些預測市場幾乎都在做體育相關的題目。但如果你看實際使用者，98% 的網站流量其實不是交易者，而是從不同市場的價格發現中獲取真實資訊的人。你會看到其他類型的市場也開始興起。我們在評估時，就是在思考如何讓投機成為一個長期耐用的產品。You know, for instance, you know, we're a very large investor in Polymarket, and a lot of the concern around Polymarket recently has been that these prediction markets are all sports, right? But if you look at the users who are using it, 98% of site visits are not traders. It's people who are actually taking real information from price discovery of a bunch of different markets, right? You're starting to, and you're starting to see this kind of swell up of other types of Markets start to pick up as well. And I think that sort of value that is being provided is what we look for when we think about, okay, well, how can you use speculation for a durable long-term product?

17:08內容創作與投資啟發

17:08Alex，你最近推出了一些卡通影片，裡面有你自己的卡通分身。我看過其中一集，劇情是你扮演超級交易員，去教一個年輕人怎麼賺大錢。你想傳達的核心理念是什麼？Alex, you recently put out some cartoon videos where you're playing yourself. There's a cartoon version of you, and in this video that I watched, Correct me if I'm wrong, but the storyline is that you're this, like, super trader, and you go teach some young kid how to make a bunch of money. What exactly is the ethos of what you're trying to put together there?

17:32線上內容的問題一直是什麼會驅動市場的交易和興趣。我以前在電商公司工作，學到最重要的一課就是，永遠不要自以為能判斷什麼會讓人行動。有個交易員 TJR，他在波多黎各，經常在 TikTok 上爆紅，拍影片教年輕交易員怎麼做。我就想用電商的思維，直接照抄他的影片，結果真的很有效，因為這就是世界的運作方式。The question with online content is always what drives transaction and interest in markets, and I used to work at an e-commerce company and— One of the number one lessons was you never should be arrogant enough to judge what is going to activate people. And so there's a particular trader, TJR. He's a guy in Puerto Rico who just goes constantly mega viral on TikTok that just posts videos of him teaching young traders what to do. So I thought, okay, I'm going to apply this e-commerce mindset and just literally carbon copy his video, and obviously it did well. Because that's how the world works.

18:08但我覺得更有趣、更哲學的層面是，現在有很多資產，比如 Muse 這個產品，它在 Shopify 上販售，因為 Amazon 把它封鎖了。但 AI 代理人其實不在乎買什麼。如果你去 Muse 上逛逛，它會幫你買一些你從沒想過會買的東西。如果把電商的邏輯套用到投資，重點在於創辦人或協議經營者要怎麼創造能激發人們參與各種資產的內容，並把它產品化，就像我們做電商頁面一樣。But I think the interesting, maybe more philosophical thing is that there are a lot of assets. For example, you know, with Muse, it shops on Shopify, right? Because Amazon blocked it, but also agents don't really care what they're buying. And so if you go on Muse and go shopping, it will buy you things that you would have never thought to buy before. And so I think if we apply the e-commerce to investing analog, one of the core competencies of crypto founders or people running protocols is like, how do I create content that activates people into a wide array of different assets and productize that the same way that we would approach. Making good e-commerce pages, I think that will be.

18:54而且還要確保這些頁面不只跟使用者互動，也要跟使用者身邊的 agent 互動。舉例來說，有人用 Muse 發現一個資產，我做過分析，像 Cathie Wood 對很多 AI 代理人來說非常有吸引力，遠超過 Brad Garlinghouse。不是說 Brad Garlinghouse 的 pitch 不好，只是 agent 比較不買單。所以我覺得我們需要研究怎麼在新市場裡激發投資人行動。And also, how do we make sure that those pages interact not only with users, but the agents that users are shopping with, right? Because, like, if someone is discovering an asset on Muse, you know, I did an analysis, for example, Cathie Wood is very, very appealing to a lot of AI agents, far more so than Brad Garlinghouse. And it's not to say that Brad Garlinghouse's pitch is bad. It's just that agents don't like his pitch as much as they like Cathie Wood's pitch. So there's sort of like a study that needs to happen, I think, of how to activate investors in this new market.

19:29AI 代理人與交易的未來

19:29我們來聊聊 agent，AI 正在改變每個產業，包括投機和加密貨幣。Robinhood 其實很早就開始做這一塊。我知道你們幾個月前在倫敦的活動上宣布要推出 agent，現在已經有很多 agent 在交易了。使用者怎麼用這些 agent？你們從第一波內部資料學到什麼？Yeah, I guess let's go a little bit into agents, and obviously AI is transforming every economy, including speculation and crypto, and— Robinhood has been quite early. I know that you guys, at your event in London some months ago, were announcing that you're going to have agents, and now you already have a ton of them already trading. How are users using it? Like, what are you learning from this, like, first data that you're seeing internally?

19:53我們有兩個平台，一個是 MCP，你可以把自己的 agent 連上去，自己架設雲端或用 OpenCloud，可以交易加密貨幣、股票、選擇權。我們看到很多人用 agent 做有趣的策略，比如 long-short、走廊策略，讓資本利得鎖到長期。上週我們也在 app 裡推出 agentic trading，全部跑在我們的基礎設施上，使用者不用自己架設 Mac Studio 或 OpenCloud，只要選模型、選要看的 app 資訊（例如 crypto 就選 token terminal），就能跑自己想要的策略。Yeah, I think it's a combination. We have two platforms. We have one MCP that you can connect your agent to. You know, you set up your own cloud or your OpenCloud and— You can trade crypto equities options. We see a lot of people actually doing interesting strategies. Long short, for example, is one that we're seeing a bit everywhere. People doing corridors to be able to lock their capital gain until it hits, like, the long term. And then we just launched last week also our agentic trading within the app, so. Everything is running on our infrastructure. You don't have to set up your Mac Studio with OpenCloud on it, like we do that for you. You select your model, you select the apps information that you want to have. So for crypto, it would be token terminal, and you can run whatever strategy you want.

20:38我們觀察到，有些人會自己想策略，有些人則是想要 agent 給建議。大家其實是把 agent 當成一個超能力助手，幫助自己做出正確決策。比如很多人賣持股時，不是照 FIFO 順序賣，而是用特定稅務批次來改善稅負。買選擇權時，選擇權價格階梯很複雜，agent 可以幫你處理。這是我們現在看到的主要應用。上週剛上線的新功能還沒太多資料，但我相信未來使用者會越來越精進，散戶也能用這種超能力追上過去只有避險基金才有的優勢。I think what we're seeing, are people coming up with their own strategies, or are they looking for recommendations from the agent? What are they doing? I think it's more about having this, like, superpower that is next to you and helping you make the right decision. So, you know, for example, a thing that we see a ton is people saying, trying to sell one of their holdings, and instead of just selling... Whatever in a FIFO order, they will use a specific tax lot to optimize, again, their taxes. Or if you want to buy options, you know, sometimes the option ladder is pretty complicated and jarring sometimes because there is so many strike price and it's changing completely all the time. And so the agents can help you there. So right now we're seeing a lot of that. What we launched last week is just brand new, so we don't have data there. But I think we will start to see more and more sophistication in what the customers are doing, and basically it's going to level the playing field between the hedge fund that used to have a room full of analysts that were looking at all the news and knowing exactly what to do because they've studied this. And the more basic retail investor, now you're going to have the basic retail investor with, like, this superpower to really be at the same level.

21:53AI 代理人的普及與差異化

21:53隨著技術進步，越來越多人會依賴 agent 來協助管理財務部位。Dragonfly 有開始投資這一塊嗎？還是你們預期現有公司會自己做？I mean, it seems like as the technology gets better, more and more people will be relying on an agent to help them navigate their, you know, their financial positions. Have you guys started to invest in this, a Dragonfly, or are you kind of expecting that the existing companies will be the ones to build it within?

22:09這確實是我們討論的主題。我其實覺得，像 Johann 說的「民主化避險基金和個人交易者」這個說法不太對。實際上，這會變成資本支出（capex）的差異。機構交易現在就是資金和算力的競賽，錢多、算力多、資料多、分析師多（其實是電腦在跑資料），你在市場就越強。這在造市商領域很明顯，未來其他市場也會這樣。預測市場的交易量大多是 agent（機器人）在做，這趨勢會越來越明顯。Yes, it's a topic of conversation and something I'm interested in. I'm actually, to Johann's point, like, oh, this was like democratizing, like, you know, hedge funds versus personal traders. I think that's probably wrong, to be honest, because what's actually happening there is then there's a differentiation around capex, essentially, right? What has happened in institutional trading is it's just become a money and capex game, right? Like the more money you have, the more compute you have, the more data you have, the more just analysts that you have, but not analysts, but actual, like, computers crunching numbers, the better you are in markets, right? Like, you know this as running a market maker. And the same thing is going to be true when markets are ready. The majority of prediction market volume is actually done by, like, agents, essentially bots. It's not, and this is coming true more and more in other markets.

23:03我對於大家問 ChatGPT、Claude、Muse 或 Instinct 該投什麼這種通用 LLM agent 能做出什麼特別的事，其實很悲觀。大家喜歡覺得 agent 能幫自己多想一步、有更多洞見，但我更看好 agent 能根據個人資料、稅務、風險偏好等，進入你財務活動的封閉花園裡，這樣才有真正的差異化。如果 alpha 大家都能用同一個 ChatGPT 拿到，那很快就沒 alpha 了。真正有價值的是針對個人化的客製化服務。I think I'm pretty bearish on the idea that, like, people, like, people are already asking ChatGPT or Claude or Muse or Instinct, like, what should I be investing in? And they're, you know, potentially bringing their own Hermes or whatever to the MCP connectors. And I'm pretty bearish on these, like, general-purpose, like, LLM agents being able to go and do anything particularly interesting. People like that. They like the thought process of, like, thinking that it is, you know, better for them and that they have more insight. I'm a lot more bullish on the idea of having an agent having context about me and about data and about my tax lots and about the, you know, my risk profile and everything that I do in my life, and being inside of a walled garden of my financial activity. I mean, I think that makes a lot of sense because if alpha is alpha and you can just— I'll get it on the same ChatGPT model, then obviously it's going to disappear immediately. It's not going to exist. So what you're making the very good point is, you know, the customization on your own situation, risk preferences, and, you know, financial conditions is really where you're getting a lot of value add.

24:12那這種金融助理會是 frontier labs、Robinhood 還是新創公司做出來？我認為會是垂直整合、能掌握你整個財務生活的公司，像新型態的 neobank，既是銀行又是投資帳戶、儲蓄帳戶、退休帳戶，能根據你的需求和互動訓練 agent。如果能導入新的資料會更好。Robinhood 也宣布可以付費取得不同類型的資料，放進 agentic trading 體驗。這種在特定應用、封閉花園裡的差異化，比通用型 agent 更有趣。And that kind of product, though, like, do you see that financial assistant being built by the frontier labs, by, like, the Robinhoods, maybe, like, some independent... You know, new startups, like who do you think ultimately is going to go for that? I think it is going to be like a vertically stacked, like, you know, company that has understanding of your entire financial life. So I think like maybe potentially a net new neobank that is both the bank and the invest account and, you know, maybe my savings account, my IRA, whatever, that understands my entire life. They're going to be able to train that, and I'm with my, you know, back and forth with that agent, going to be able to train on the things that I need and the way that I want to invest better. And then if I can bring in net new data into that, that'll be better, right? And so, I mean, you saw in Robinhood's announcement, one of the things, and of course everybody can pay for it, but one of the things that they announced was you can pay for different types of data to put into your Agentic trading experience. And I think that sort of differentiation within a specific application, a specific walled garden, is going to be much more interesting than anything that's general purpose.

25:16金融超級 App 與未來展望

25:16現在大家都想做金融超級 App，像 Twitter 和 Elon 也開始嘗試，Robinhood 則有現成的使用者基礎可以堆疊新功能。未來三年會怎樣？我們很快就會看到誰是贏家。還有五分鐘，我想聊聊投機過度帶來的問題。I mean, I guess, like, everyone's trying to build this financial super app, and I know Twitter and Elon's got his attempts to start building, and Robinhood has their existing distribution that they can keep stacking on top of, and I guess. Ultimately, we'll see the frontier labs already trying to, you know, see how far they can get into that. So curious to see what it looks like in three years. We'll start to have more winners cleared up by then. We have five more minutes. I want to talk about some of the maybe, like, issues with speculating to the extent that it's happening, and even more.

25:51預測市場、內線交易與監管挑戰

25:51美國已經出現很多軍方人員利用預測市場下注，利用他們的內線資訊。內線交易在傳統金融很常見，像 SAC Capital 做內線就會被關。但預測市場很奇怪，像 Shane 會說這就是產品特色，我們就是要讓內線把資訊揭露給 98% 的一般使用者。但如果真的有內線操作，還是會有很多問題。你怎麼看？我們會不會創造出太多財務誘因，讓人最後進監獄？I think we've already had a lot of U.S. Government issues with military people betting on prediction markets on, you know, insider information that they have. And of course, insider information is something that we're accustomed to in traditional finance. You go to jail if, you know, you're SAC Capital and doing some insider stuff. But prediction markets are this weird thing where Shane will just say, like, yeah, that's the product. Like, we want insiders to reveal. Information to all the 98% of users that are coming on board, but there seems to be, you know, a lot of issues sometimes when an actual insider does do something. I mean, you think about this stuff broadly, what do you think is really, like, gonna end up being the case? Are we gonna just end up creating so many financial incentives that people are gonna end up in jail?

26:40我覺得不太可能。其實 Hyperliquid 上鏈股票的興起，大家最大疑問就是，如果有匿名帳號在做股票永續合約，這會是監管最關注的市場。我認為 Donald Trump 政府在這方面其實很友善。至於內線資訊流入預測市場，這幾乎一定會發生。問題是，零和合約裡誰是受害對手方？這確實值得討論。Probably less likely, I think. Actually, the rise of Hyperliquid on-chain stocks, that was always the big question. It's like, if we have pseudonymous accounts trading perps on stocks, that's the absolute most extreme market for regulatory focus. And I think the Trump administration has been very friendly in that regard. In terms of— Inside information leaking into prediction markets, yeah, I think that's almost certainly true. The question is, who's the counterparty who gets hurt in a zero-sum contract? It is a good question.

27:25有件事我覺得很奇怪，就是 Coinbase 執行長 Brian Armstrong 在財報電話會議上，有個預測市場賭他會說哪些詞。他本來沒說那些詞，最後像開玩笑一樣，把那些亂七八糟的詞全部唸一遍，直接讓預測市場照那個方向走。這是零和，有人很開心，有人很不爽。這種現象正常嗎？我們是不是進入一個現實影響賭注、然後大家都在 meta 裡的世界？But the one thing that kind of looked really odd to me was when— I think it was Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong went on their earnings call, and there was a market on which words he would say. So he didn't say the words. He did the normal earnings call, and at the end he just decided to, I don't know if it was sort of like a joke, he just read all the words one by one. They were just gibberish words. He just read them all just to make the prediction market go in that favor, and obviously. It is zero sum, so some guy was very happy and some guy was probably very upset at that time. But is that, like, is that normal? Like, are we just going into this world where reality is affecting the bet and then we're just sort of in this meta?

28:09其實 CFTC 和 SEC 對內線交易有明確規範，哪些資訊可以交易、哪些市場容易被操縱、哪些資訊可以持有還算合規。內線交易通常都是事後才被抓，股票市場也一樣，只是大家習以為常，抓到就罰錢、坐牢。預測市場反而常被媒體大肆報導，好像這是其他市場沒有的現象，但其實每個市場都有，只是被抓到而已，這是好事。I mean, very clearly, like, the CFTC and the SEC have very clear rules around insider trading, right? What type of information you can trade on, what type of markets are manipulable, how that you should think about, and what type of information is okay for a counterparty to possess and still be inside that market, right? Insider trading is always caught after the fact, right? So there's like these headlines which are like, oh, okay, so somebody insider traded this market. If that happens in equities, you don't get the headlines because it does happen all the time. And then people get caught, and then they go to jail, and they get fined, et cetera. It's become sort of this weird thing with prediction markets where people keep writing these headlines as if this is like a thing that doesn't exist in every single market because people are getting caught, right? And that's a good thing.

28:57那麼，市場裡有資訊不對稱的人，誰該參與？他們比別人更懂，這有價值嗎？答案很明顯，每個市場都有資訊不對稱，有人能買到衛星影像、信用卡資料。Rob，你說的沒錯，有些人甚至能創造結果，這又是另一層次。預測市場像 Polymarket 或 Kalshi 都不是誰都能開市場，有專門團隊審核合約，只有他們決定要不要上線。所以你不能隨便開一個「我在 Token2049 台上會說什麼」的市場。Now, the question around, okay, well, is there people with asymmetric information? Who should be in these markets, and are they more informed than somebody else? And does that have value? Very clearly, yes. And in every market, there's asymmetric information, because there are people who are able to buy satellite imagery of what's going on in certain places. There are people who are able to buy credit card data. But Rob, there's asymmetric information, like, you know, you just get like a god mode to see, but then there's also like— You're creating the outcome. Like, that's another level above where, forget the information that exists in the world and having, like, view of it, you're the one making that outcome happen. I mean, there's not, on prediction markets, neither of them—I don't know about all prediction markets—but neither Polymarket or Kalshi allow for any person to create a market. Like, there are markets teams that review these contracts, and they're the ones that you can propose, but then they're the ones that decide to put them. So it's not as if, like, you could go and say, Hey, I'm going to make a mention market about what I'm going to say on stage at, you know, at Token 2049.

29:56我認為市場會自我調節。如果你在一個平台上每次都因為內線資訊輸錢，你就不會再來。我們 Robinhood 也不允許預測市場，因為太容易被操縱。註冊時我們會問你職業，如果你是政府或監管相關，可能不能參與相關預測市場。平台像 Polymarket、Kalshi、Robinhood 都會自律，這對他們很重要。And I think, to Rob's point, I think the market will do its thing and it will regulate itself. If you go on a platform and every time you lose all your money because there is insider information against you, you will stop going on the platform. So on our side, for example, we make sure that prediction markets are not allowed on Robinhood. It's something that we think is too easy to manipulate. When you sign up for the platform, we ask you a bunch of questions to know what is your field of employment, and if your field is the government and regulation, maybe you cannot, you know, place a trade on a prediction market around this. So, okay, so you're saying, like, people will lose their money too many times that this kind of situation will stop. Exactly. And the platform like Poly and Karshi and Robinhood and others are going to regulate this type of contracts because it's going to be vital for them.

30:43金融 KOL 與未來趨勢

30:43最後一分鐘，快問快答。你們覺得金融交易名人會變成主流嗎？像 CNBC 那些人，或有些人爆紅又爆掉。金融 KOL 會變主流、帶動大家交易嗎？這是必然還是大家還是自己決定？Yeah, that's fair. Okay, last minute, I want to get a quick yes, no, maybe one sentence. One of the things that, you know, I've heard debated is, are we going to have Financial trading celebrities, like, obviously, you know, we've had, we have them. Is this going to be, like, a big thing? Like, are we going to have— obviously, we've had the CNBC guys, and we've had, you know, some people blow up in spectacular ways. But do you think the financial celebrity, like this KOL concept becoming mainstream and bigger and directing people's trades is— Is this inevitable, or is this sort of not how people are going to make decisions?

31:22我覺得會介於兩者之間，會有一些金融名人，這對金融透明度是好事，但不代表大家都會照他們交易。我認為 AI 會是更好的願景。Rob，你覺得這已經是必然了？其實已經在發生，只是不是每個人都會追星，但很明顯有些人就是會被追隨，大家想看他們的交易。Alex，你的看法？很明顯是肯定的。如果 Kylie Jenner 能賣十億美元的唇膏，股票市場也會有類似現象。I think it's in between. I think you will have some of them, and also I think it's a good thing that you have more and more visibility into finance. I'm not sure that it's how people will do all their trades. I think AI is probably going to be the better vision there. I hope so. But Rob, you think it's already inevitable? Like, it's already happening. It's not going to be for everybody. It's not going to be mass market, but it's, like, very clear that there are specific people. I mean, just look at the rise of FOMO. Very specifically, people want to be able to look at somebody and say, That person is somebody I want to follow, and I want to look at their trades. I guess, Alex, you... Clearly yes, right? If you have Kylie Jenner selling a billion dollars of lip gloss, you're going to have the equivalent in stock.

32:04謝謝大家，今天很棒。Okay, well, thanks everybody. It was great.