Raoul Pal：從流動性到智慧時代的超級循環
The Exponential Age
- Raoul Pal Real Vision 共同創辦人暨執行長
場次摘要
Raoul Pal 剖析加密市場流動性困境，強調 AI、生產力革命與區塊鏈如何推動產業飛輪。預測加密市值將於 2035 年達百兆美元，金融體系正全面上鏈重構。
值得記下的 5 件事
逐字稿
市場現狀與流動性困境
我們現在身處什麼位置？未來會走向哪裡？這些對我們意味著什麼？機會又在哪裡？我知道這正是大家關心的重點。簡單來說，我認為這是我們在加密貨幣領域中，近年來遇到過最平衡的風險與報酬機會之一。我非常興奮，雖然這不是一個立即可把握的機會，但它正在逐步成形。讓我們看看這是否會實現。好，這就是「Everything Code」——記住這個名字，因為這是我書的標題，稍後我還會再提到。這一切都圍繞著一個神奇的方程式展開。Where are we today, where are we heading, and what does all this mean for us, and where are the opportunities? Because I know that's what you're looking for. In summary at the start, I think this is one of the most balanced risk-reward opportunities we've had in crypto for a while. So I'm really excited. It's not a direct opportunity, but it's coming. Let's see if this works. Okay, so, Everything Code. Remember that name because it's the title of my book and I'll refer to it at the end. It's all about this magic equation.
這個神奇的方程式是：GDP成長＝人口成長＋生產力成長＋債務成長。隨著人口老化，生產力也會下降，剩下的缺口我們就用債務來補足。那我們需要理解的是，這一切對我們有什麼意義？大家都說上一個循環已經結束，現在進入新一輪循環。其實這沒那麼重要，大家都經歷過熊市，也都得適應，但牛市通常伴隨著大量流動性。The magic equation is that GDP growth equals population growth, productivity growth, and debt growth. And as we know, populations are aging, productivity drops as populations age, and we've made up the rest with debt. And what we need to understand is, okay, what does all this mean for us? The key thing is everyone says we're done with the last cycle and we're in a new cycle. It doesn't really matter that much, you know, we've all been through a bear market, we've had to live with that, but bull markets usually have massive liquidity.
但這一輪我們的流動性其實非常有限。這是美國按年計算的流動性指標，這個指標比較窄，包括銀行持有的國債、財政部一般帳戶和聯準會資產負債表。你可以看到，我們其實沒有經歷過真正的流動性大幅上升。加密貨幣價格從谷底反彈，是因為流動性從低點開始擴張，但整體還是負值。之後我們經歷了一段流動性橫盤的階段，但你可以看到，過去的牛市我們都會有完整的流動性循環，而流動性正是還債的關鍵。And we've had very little liquidity. So this is the year-on-year measure of liquidity in the US. It's the narrow measure, so it includes treasuries held by banks, the general treasury account, and the Fed's balance sheet. And you can see we haven't really had a big rise in liquidity. Crypto prices bounced off the lows when liquidity started to expand from the bottom, but it's still negative. Then we went through this sideways struggle with liquidity, but you can see in previous bull markets we get a full liquidity cycle, and liquidity is the key to how you pay back debt.
如果我們再放大來看，其實我們從來沒有經歷過那種流動性大幅下滑的循環。這也是為什麼納斯達克指數沒有修正，但加密貨幣卻修正了，因為流動性不夠。你可以看到兩者之間的關聯。這些關係會隨時間變化。這裡的流動性指標大約領先比特幣90天，雖然不是完全吻合，但能讓你大致掌握趨勢。它大致捕捉到比特幣從低點反彈的走勢，但還是落後於流動性，兩者之間還有些落差。展望未來，流動性還是不太理想，所以我暫時不預期會有太多驚喜，但比特幣有時也會脫離這個軌跡，過去我們也見過，所以只能繼續觀察。So if we zoom in again, you can see we've never really had that downward liquidity cycle. That's why the Nasdaq didn't correct, but crypto did, because there wasn't enough liquidity. And you can see the relationship here. Now, these things change over time. But here, the liquidity measure leads Bitcoin by about ninety days, and while it's not a perfect match, it gives you a good sense of direction. It kind of caught the rise in Bitcoin from the lows, but it's still lagging liquidity. There's still a bit of a gap that doesn't quite match. And as you can see going forward, liquidity still isn't great. So I'm not expecting a lot of fireworks just yet, but also Bitcoin can break away from this path, so we've seen that in the past too, so we kind of have to wait and watch.
流動性與資產輪動
我們現在正處於一種觀望狀態，這種流動性短缺和市場波動，正是導致我們進入這波熊市的原因。我現在開始關注的一個指標是「超額流動性」。這可以解釋為什麼科技股大漲，但加密貨幣卻沒跟上。超額流動性指的是超過GDP成長的那部分流動性。如果你想推動像AI這樣的發展，就需要大量超額流動性，讓其他資產、投機性資產或高風險資產也能受惠。但我們現在沒有這樣的超額流動性。We're in a kind of wait-and-see mode, and this lack of liquidity with market volatility is what brought us into this bear market. One of the measures I've started watching now is excess liquidity. This explains why tech stocks have gone up and crypto hasn't. Excess liquidity is the liquidity above GDP growth. If you want to fund something like AI development, you need a lot of excess liquidity for other assets, speculative assets, or riskier things, and we haven't had that.
這裡是超額流動性與比特幣的對比，這個指標其實很好地解釋了比特幣目前的狀況。我的超額流動性指標（你可能看不太清楚），還是低於零，代表沒有足夠的流動性超過GDP成長，無法推動所有資產一起上漲。這也是為什麼當AI交易降溫時，比特幣才會上漲。因為資金在不同資產間輪動，現在沒有足夠流動性同時推動兩個市場。AI這波擴張非常巨大。我們甚至看到所有資產都出現了兩個標準差的拋售，包括加密貨幣對納斯達克也出現了兩個標準差的下跌。我會特別關注這些，因為這些就是機會。流動性在這種市場裡是橫向移動的。Here is excess liquidity versus Bitcoin, and this measure actually explains well what's happening with Bitcoin now. My excess liquidity measure (you might not see the scale clearly) is still below zero, meaning there's not enough liquidity above GDP growth to push all assets higher. That's one reason why Bitcoin rose when AI trading slowed down. Because they're rotating liquidity between assets, and we don't have enough liquidity to push two things together. This AI expansion is massive, as we know. But we've seen a two-standard-deviation sell-off in everything, even crypto versus Nasdaq saw a two-standard-deviation sell-off. Those are the things I look for because they represent opportunities, and liquidity moves sideways in that kind of market.
所以這就是目前發生的事：這是一個循環中的修正。流動性整年都在震盪。去年十月政府關門，十月十日又像核彈一樣衝擊市場，導致加密貨幣市場一度癱瘓。之後一月又有一次關門，接著與伊朗的緊張局勢升溫，美元上漲、利率上升、油價也漲。這不是一個容易的流動性環境，這也是為什麼我們很難真正賺到錢。大家的焦點都放在AI建設上，而不是區塊鏈。So that's the explanation of what's happening. It's a mid-cycle correction. Liquidity has been choppy all year. The government shut down last October, then October 10th was like a nuclear bomb, which disrupted crypto markets for a while. Then we had another shutdown in January, then tensions with Iran, then the dollar went up, rates went up, oil went up. This is not an easy liquidity environment, and that's why it's been hard for all of us to make real profits here. All the focus has been on building AI instead of connecting to blockchain.
債務、利率與美元壓力
那接下來會發生什麼？我們知道一件事，就是債務的利息一定要還。美國的債務成長其實沒有增加，但利息支出卻不斷累積。他們不一定借更多錢，但必須借錢來還利息。這就像你用一張信用卡去還另一張卡的利息，基本上現在就是這種狀況。這裡可以看到流動性與利息支出的對比，這才是主導局勢的關鍵。你可以看到我們必須做什麼——我們只能繼續印鈔。So, what happens next? We know one fact, which is that interest on debt has to be paid. Debt growth isn't rising in the US, but interest payments keep piling up. So they're not necessarily borrowing more money, they're having to borrow money to pay the interest. It's like paying your credit card interest with another credit card, and that's basically what's happening. Here we see liquidity versus interest payments. That's what drives the situation, so you can see what we have to do—we have to keep printing money.
這是廣義流動性指標，涵蓋整個銀行體系。你只能在兩個地方創造貨幣，一個是央行，另一個是銀行體系。Scott Bessent 和 Warsh 等人都說，下一階段必須是銀行體系擴大放貸。因為我們有史上最大規模的私部門債券發行潮要來臨，政府也在全力融資，資本競爭激烈，銀行必須加大放貸，這樣才能帶來更多流動性。對我們加密貨幣圈來說，最重要的是要看到超額流動性增加，所以我們在等這個條件出現，而這一切都跟美元有關。So, this is now the broad measure of liquidity, which includes the whole banking system. You can only create money in two places, one is the central bank, the other is the banking system. Scott Bessent and Warsh and everyone say the next phase of all this has to be the banking system increasing lending, because don't forget, we have record private sector debt issuance coming while we're funding this whole expansion, plus we have the government, so there's that competition for capital, and banks need to lend, so that has to happen, we need to get more liquidity, and for us in crypto, what matters is we really want to see that excess liquidity increase, so we're waiting for the conditions where that happens, and the conditions are really about the dollar.
我們需要一個更弱勢的美元。現在美元雖然不是特別強，但已經強到讓金融環境收緊，這直接影響流動性，進而壓抑市場。現在美元、利率、油價都在上升，這就是金融環境收緊的表現，我們需要這些壓力消退。現在正值美國期中選舉年，我認為伊朗危機會有某種解決，因為川普真的很想壓低油價。他們想降息、想讓美元貶值，這些都是我們需要看到的，這樣才能點燃風險偏好，吸引更多資金進入市場。We need a weaker dollar. Now, the dollar isn't super strong right now, but it's strong enough to tighten financial conditions, which affects liquidity and undermines markets. So, the dollar is up, rates are up, oil is up. That's tightening financial conditions, and we need those pressures to fade. We're now coming up to the midterm elections, I think there will be some kind of solution to the Iran crisis because Trump really wants to lower the oil price. They want to lower rates, they want to lower the dollar, and those are the things we need to see that will in turn ignite more risk-taking and bring more capital into markets generally.
超級循環與智慧時代
但我認為這一輪其實是超級循環，和以往完全不同。如果你還記得，「Everything Code」循環完全是債務再融資循環，過去是四年一輪，現在已經被拉長到5.7年，但這次還有更大的力量在推動。我們有大量利息要還，超級循環其實是關於智慧與智慧成長。這張圖很驚人，是對數圖表，顯示摩爾定律——每單位晶片的運算能力。2020、2021年AI爆發後，這個趨勢變得幾乎垂直。But I actually think the likelihood is that this is a supercycle. And that this is a totally different cycle than we've seen before. And if you remember, the Everything Code cycle was entirely about the debt refinancing cycle. It used to be four years, it's been pushed to 5.7 years now, but we have something else happening in the middle of that. There are much bigger forces at play, and we have all these interest payments that have to be made. So the supercycle is actually about intelligence and the growth of intelligence. This chart is amazing, it's a logarithmic chart, this is Moore's Law—how much computing power you get per chip. Then what happened in 2020 and 2021 with the start of AI, the path went vertical.
我現在用兩個指標來衡量：一個是摩爾定律，另一個是每單位能量產生的智慧產出。我認為這是理解一切運作的最重要法則之一，不只影響市場或科技，甚至影響宇宙本身（這是另一個主題，以後再談）。現在我們第一次看到「Reed's Law」的例子，這是平方級成長，以前自然界從沒出現過，但現在智慧每單位能量的成長速度，每五個月就翻倍一次，這太驚人了，難怪我們都無法理解發生什麼事。And how do I measure this now? There are two different measures, one is Moore's Law, the other is intelligence output per unit of energy, which I think is one of the most important laws, if not the most important, for understanding how everything works—not just markets or technology, but how the universe itself works (that's another topic for another day). But what we have now is the first ever example of Reed's Law, which is a Metcalfe's square law, never seen in nature before, never seen in anything before, but we're seeing it happen now in intelligence. The pace of intelligence per unit of energy is doubling every five months. It's simply astonishing, and that's why none of us can understand what's going on.
我們其實已經改變了智慧的載體。過去所有智慧都是碳基的——人類、動物、大自然，全都靠碳。現在我們轉向了另一種載體：我們把電流通過沙子（矽），速度快了一百萬倍，這就是為什麼一切發展得這麼快，智慧開始自我增長。當你理解這一點，這就是遊戲的本質——這是人類史上最大的遊戲，也是人類經歷過變化速度最快的時代，這是史上最重要的科技發現，一切都圍繞這個展開。We've actually changed the substrate of intelligence. All the intelligence we've ever known was carbon-based—humans, animals, nature, all of it was carbon. Now we've moved to a different substrate: we're passing electricity through sand, and it's a million times faster. That's why this is happening, and intelligence is building its own intelligence. So once you understand that, this is the game. This is the biggest game in history. It's the fastest rate of change humanity will ever go through. It's the most important technology ever discovered. It's all about this.
新經濟指標與生產力革命
我現在開始建立一套全新的經濟指標，專門針對這個指數時代。這些科技都在朝垂直成長發展，我認為這能幫助我們理解未來的走向以及各種關聯。圖表上可能有點難看清楚，因為顏色太淡。帶動這一切的是我剛剛提到的智慧曲線，接著是資本支出（CapEx）曲線。其實推動智慧成長的就是半導體。你下單買半導體，就能產生更多智慧，開始賺錢、再投資、建資料中心、增加資本支出等等。我們正處於這個循環的中段，圖表應該能顯示資本支出總額會持續上升，左側還隱藏著生產力曲線。What I've started building is new economic indicators based on this exponential age. All these technologies are heading toward vertical growth, and I think this will help us understand where all this is going and how it all connects. Maybe it's a little hard to see on the chart because the colors are light. But what's driving this is the intelligence curve I showed you before, then comes the capital expenditure (CapEx) curve. What actually drives intelligence is semiconductors. You order semiconductors, you get more intelligence, you start making profits, you reinvest, you start building data centers and CapEx and all that. We're in the middle of this cycle, and that chart should show us the path of CapEx, which is that it will keep going up, and then productivity is hidden on the left side of this.
生產力才是我們真正要玩的遊戲。我們的目標是改變GDP成長的趨勢線，這樣債務成長率就會低於GDP成長率，債務佔GDP的比重就會下降。我們已經看到生產力開始進入經濟體系的初步跡象，到處都能看到這些現象。最明顯的例子是企業每位員工的獲利。這個數字長期停滯，十年都沒動，突然之間大幅飆升。大公司、超級規模企業都停止增聘員工，甚至裁員，但每位員工的獲利卻爆發性成長。這就是生產力，雖然還沒全面反映到整個經濟，但已經開始了。Productivity is the game we're playing here. We're trying to change the trend rate of GDP growth, because then debt will grow at a lower rate than GDP, and the debt-to-GDP ratio will fade. We're seeing the first signs of productivity entering the economy, and I see pictures of it everywhere. The clearest is corporate profits per employee. That level was flat for a long time, for a decade, and then suddenly it exploded. Companies, basically the big ones, the hyperscalers, stopped hiring new people. In fact, many laid off staff, but their profits per employee exploded. That's productivity, and it hasn't happened across the whole economy yet.
這一切從最早採用AI的人開始，像Amazon就是最好的例子。他們2017、2018年就開始全面自動化，現在有無人機、自駕車、機器人、AI等各種新科技。Amazon六年前就停止增聘員工，預計明年機器人數量會超過人力。這些變化正在底層快速發生，雖然大家還不太相信，但這就是未來的趨勢。這些大公司賺更多錢後，會再投入史上最大規模的資本支出擴張，現金流爆棚。他們是史上現金流最強的企業，這一切因生產力提升而加速，因為他們用的是自己開發的科技。It started with the people who use AI first, and we start with companies like Amazon that started using robots before everyone else. Amazon is a practical example of an economy adopting all this new technology. They started automating everything around 2017 to 2018, and now they're into drones, self-driving cars, robots, AI, everything. What I saw with Amazon is they stopped hiring people six years ago, and by next year, robots are expected to outnumber employees in the workforce. I know nobody believes it yet, but that's what's coming. And as these big companies make more money, they reinvest it in the biggest CapEx expansion the world has ever seen, so these are generating massive cash flows. They're the biggest cash generators the world has ever seen, and this is accelerating because of the productivity they're seeing, because they're using the technology they're building themselves.
你可以看到這種自我強化的循環正在發生。他們還會借錢來擴張，把所有現金流和更多資金都投入成長。現在大家擔心企業借錢，但這些公司債務只佔市值3.5%，幾乎沒什麼負債，可以持續很久，甚至必須持續下去。這已經是史上第二大的資本支出事件，唯一更大的就是鐵路建設，那時資本支出持續了35年。You can see this self-reinforcing loop happening. Then they borrow to fund their expansion, so they're using all their corporate cash flows and more by borrowing money. Now, people worry about borrowing money, but these guys only have 3.5% of their market cap in debt. They're barely indebted. This can go on for a very long time, and it will have to. This is already the second biggest CapEx event in history. The only thing bigger was the railroads, which was CapEx that lasted thirty-five years.
能源、運算與智慧的無限循環
這場現象會持續多久？我告訴你，只要智慧持續提升，資本支出也會跟著上升，這個循環會一直延續下去。對能源的需求永遠沒有終點。數據中心的運算推動著一切：能源、運算、智慧。這三者互相強化，創造出更便宜、更高效的能源，進而帶來更多運算與更高智慧，這個飛輪會越轉越快。How long will this phenomenon last? Well, I'll tell you: as long as intelligence keeps rising, capital expenditure will keep rising with it, and this cycle just keeps going and going. There's no end to the need for energy. Computing in data centers drives everything: energy, computing, intelligence. They reinforce each other, creating cheaper and better energy, more computing, more intelligence, and the flywheel spins faster and faster.
以通膨調整後的美元來看，這其實是我們見過最大的繁榮期之一，甚至可能僅次於高速公路時代，但這已經非常巨大，而且我們才剛開始。我認為今年原本預計要建的資料中心，大約有三成因為瓶頸問題才真正建成。這個趨勢會持續到 2030 年代，甚至 2040 年代。In inflation-adjusted dollars, this is actually the biggest boom we've ever seen, or maybe the second biggest compared to the highways, but it's huge, and we've only just begun. I think about 30% of the data centers that were supposed to be built this year were actually built because of bottlenecks. So, this is something that's going to continue into the 2030s, maybe even the 2040s.
未來我們會仰賴來自太空的運算與能源，會在各種地方尋找資源。世界運作的每個面向都會為了餵養這個智慧怪獸而改變。因為這是史上最大的事件，我們創造了超越人類的智慧。現在最聰明的已經不是人類，而是 AI。In the future, we'll rely on computing and energy coming from space. We'll look for it everywhere we can. Every part of how we understand the world will change to feed this intelligence beast. Because this is the biggest event ever—we've given birth to a superior intelligence. Humans are no longer the smartest; it's AI now.
科技採用的指數級成長
這些技術的採用速度遵循 Reed's Law，成長曲線極為陡峭。上方那條深色線代表網路的採用速度，已經非常快，比電視、收音機還快。接著是區塊鏈，區塊鏈的採用速度當時比網路快兩倍，然後是 AI，這是我們前所未見的規模。The adoption of these technologies follows Reed's Law, and the growth is extremely steep. The dark line at the top represents internet adoption, which was already very fast—faster than TVs, faster than radio. Then comes blockchain, which was twice as fast as the internet at that time, and then AI, which is something we've never seen before.
我們從未見過這麼大規模的採用。別忘了，ChatGPT 在一個半月內就達到一億用戶，現在已經有十一億用戶。這真的很驚人，也證明了對智慧的需求是無止盡的。We've never seen adoption at this scale before. Don't forget, ChatGPT reached 100 million users in a month and a half, and now it's at 1.1 billion users. That's simply astonishing, and it shows you that the demand for intelligence is infinite.
區塊鏈在數位時代的定位
那區塊鏈在這一切中扮演什麼角色？大家都聽膩了 AI 搶走了我們的注意力和利潤，整個加密圈也因為 AI 而感到沮喪。但事實是，區塊鏈是這個數位時代的經濟協調層。未來這一切都離不開它，區塊鏈彷彿就是為這個目的而設計的。它是你存放一切的地方：金錢、資產所有權、身份認證。So, where does blockchain fit into all this? Because everyone is tired of hearing about AI stealing our attention and profits, and everyone in crypto is frustrated because of AI. The truth is, blockchain is the economic coordination layer for this entire digital age. It seems like nothing in the future can work without it. Blockchain seems purpose-built for this. It's where you store everything: money, ownership, identity.
未來我們會看到更多這些應用，像是合約，還有代理人（agents）之間互相支付。這一切都是我們在區塊鏈領域所打造的。我們曾經犯過一個錯誤，或者說這就是發展的過程——就像 90 年代的光纖網路先驅一樣，他們在需求和營收出現前就先建好光纖網路，而我們則是先建好區塊鏈基礎設施，很多都還沒被用上。但現在需求即將爆發，而且規模驚人。We'll have a lot more of that in the near future—contracts, and then agents paying other agents. All of this is what we've built. In blockchain, we made a mistake, or let's say that's just how it happened. It's like the fiber optic pioneers in the 1990s—they built fiber networks before there was demand and before there was revenue, and we built out blockchain space, a lot of it. But now the demand is about to show up, and it's going to be astonishing.
穩定幣與資產上鏈的爆發
首先，穩定幣。我們都很熟悉穩定幣，這是一張漂亮的對數成長圖。照目前的趨勢推估，2030 年穩定幣規模將達到一兆美元，也就是四年內。這很棒，因為它也幫助美國財政部賣出國債。穩定幣已經成為整個數位時代的結算層。First, stablecoins. We all know stablecoins. This is a beautiful logarithmic chart of stablecoin growth. If you extrapolate the current trend, we'll reach about a trillion dollars by 2030, in four years. That's great because it also helps buy the Treasury bonds that Scott Besant needs to sell. Stablecoins have become the settlement layer for the entire digital age.
實體資產（RWA）也是另一個很棒的趨勢，會持續成長。我早在 2013、2014 年就寫過這個主題，當時連智能合約都還沒出現，我就說過整個金融體系會搬到區塊鏈上。等了很久，現在這個趨勢已經無所不在。我們看到幾乎整個金融業都在嘗試資產上鏈，因為這樣更便宜、更快、更有效率。Real-world assets are another great trend, and it's going to keep rising. I wrote about this as early as 2013 and 2014, before smart contracts even existed, saying that the entire financial system would move to the blockchain. We waited and waited, and now this trend is everywhere. We're seeing almost the entire finance sector trying to tokenize because it's cheaper, faster, and more efficient.
最終他們都會用 Layer-1，不管用什麼方式，這代表網路需求會隨時間上升，網路價值也會提升。另一個重點是新用戶——這些新用戶就是代理人（agents）。我們還在早期階段，別忘了 OpenAI 也才去年 11 月才出現。現在據說代理人的數量已經超過人類經濟參與者，雖然他們還不是經濟參與者，但代理人數量已經比人類多了。現在網路上大部分流量都是代理人產生的，這在極短時間內發生，真的很瘋狂。They'll all end up using Layer-1 in some way, and that means the numbers will go up over time because you're increasing demand on the network, which increases its value. Then we have the other thing: new users. The new users are agents. We're still in the early days—don't forget, OpenAI only came out last November, right? And now they think there are more agents than human economic actors—not as economic actors, but there are more agents than humans. Most internet traffic now comes from agents. This happened in a very short period of time. It's crazy.
代理人經濟與市場規模無限化
現在代理人用代幣的頻率已經超過人類。隨著代理人數量擴大，大家都在建構這個生態，這兩天你一定會聽到很多相關討論。這將徹底改變一切。原因是我們過去總是用 TAM（總可尋址市場）來看市場規模。歷史上我們認為 TAM 就是地球人口，約 85 億人。網路時代我們能觸及 50 到 60 億人，成長曲線呈 S 型，然後趨緩。但這一切都變了，未來會有無限多的經濟行為者出現，TAM 變成無限大。Now, tokens are being used by agents more than by humans. As agents expand, and everyone is building this as we know, you'll definitely hear about this over the next two days. This is going to change everything. The reason it changes everything is that we've always looked at markets in terms of total addressable market, TAM. In all of history, TAM was one number: the population of Earth, about 8.5 billion. With the internet, you could reach five or six billion, and that's an S-curve that then slows down. But that's changed. There are now limitless economic actors coming. TAM is now infinite.
這真的很特別。發展速度這麼快，我們根本不知道代理人數量會有多少。現在可能有十億個代理人，大家都熟悉 Metcalfe's Law，也大致理解指數級增長的概念，所以我們會預期明年可能會有五十億個代理人。但現在已經進入 Metcalfe's Law 的平方級增長，這樣明年可能會有兩百五十億個代理人。如果其中只有 1% 用錢包，那就是兩億五千萬個新加密用戶，這會讓錢包總數增加 25%。That's extraordinary. With the speed this is happening, we don't know how many agents there will be. Maybe there's a billion now. We're all used to Metcalfe's Law, and we kind of understand these exponential sequences, so we might expect five billion next year. But now we're at squared Metcalfe's Law, so maybe there will be 25 billion agents next year. If only 1% of them use wallets, that's 250 million new crypto users. That's a 25% increase in total wallets.
我甚至不知道確切數字，也無法猜測，因為我也不懂 Reed's Law。沒有人真的懂。所以，這真的很關鍵。這張我用很久的圖表一直在問：這一切的市值會走向哪裡？I don't even know the numbers, and I can't guess, because I don't understand Reed's Law either. None of us do. So, listen, it's critical. This chart I've used for a long time now keeps asking: where is the market value of all this going?
加密市值的未來與超級循環
目前整體加密市值大約是 2.5 兆美元，只要沿著對數回歸通道和 Metcalfe's Law 的採用曲線走，未來兩年就有機會達到 10 兆美元。假設我們終於迎來大家期待已久的牛市，這代表價格會從現在翻四到五倍。更長遠來看，到 2035 年左右，市值可能會達到 100 兆美元。這意味著我們將從這個領域創造出 97.5 兆美元的財富，這是驚人的金額。Right now, the total crypto market cap is about $2.5 trillion. If you just follow the logarithmic regression channel and the Metcalfe's Law adoption curve, you could get to $10 trillion in the next two years, assuming we finally get the bull market we've all been clamoring for. That means a four or five times price increase from here. But it tells us we'll reach $100 trillion by around 2035 or so. That means we'll create $97.5 trillion of wealth from this space, which is an astonishing amount of money.
這就是我們正在玩的遊戲——買進並持有。我們正進入指數時代，一切都會變得極度瘋狂。現在你把 AI 和機器人加進來，再加上能源生產和電腦效率，這個引擎會越轉越快。我們參與其中，因為所有東西都會用到這個底層架構，也就是協調層和 Layer-1。對我來說，這讓一切變得非常簡單。That's the game we're playing—buy and hold. We're entering the exponential age, where things start to get really wild. Now you add AI and robots to the mix, and use energy production and computer efficiency to power this engine. We're part of this because everything uses this substrate—the coordination layer and Layer-1s. For me, that makes it all very simple.
能源、智慧成本與金融新時代
我們也看到智慧成本和太陽能成本大幅下滑的巨大力量。你在中國看到這現象，現在美國也一樣，價格就是在崩跌。現在 Wright's Law 幾乎適用於所有這些領域。這裡又回到指數時代指標：每焦耳能源所產生的智慧量，還有底下的電價。雖然目前電價其實很高，因為有瓶頸，但這只會讓大家投入更多資金在太陽能、天然氣和核能上，為了解決瓶頸，因為智慧競賽太重要了。這會帶來能源便宜化和智慧產出倍增的雙重效果，我認為這會讓一切加速，真的有點瘋狂。We're also seeing these huge forces of collapsing intelligence costs and solar energy costs. You saw it in China, and now you're seeing it in the US. Prices are just collapsing. So now you have Wright's Law applying everywhere with these. There's the exponential age indicator again: intelligence per joule of energy, and cheap electricity at the bottom. Now, electricity is actually expensive right now because we have these bottlenecks, but that just means everyone will spend more on solar, gas, and nuclear to solve the bottlenecks, because the race for intelligence is so important. So what you'll get is a double effect of cheap energy and then intelligence output, so I think it's going to accelerate from here, which is kind of crazy.
未來會有巨大的採用趨勢。債務必須再融資，我們剛經歷了一次兩個標準差的拋售。我們大致知道接下來會發生什麼，知道新時代即將來臨，金融體系也會轉型，這些都正在發生。大家必須面對貨幣問題，我們已經看到大規模拋售，對我來說這就是風險與報酬的機會。There are going to be massive adoption trends in the future. Debt needs to be refinanced, and we've just gone through a two-standard-deviation sell-off. So we kind of know what's coming. We know the new ages are coming, the financial system is coming. All these things are happening now. They have to face the currency. We've already seen big sell-offs. So, to me, this looks like a risk-reward opportunity.
比特幣週期與金融體系重構
我的操作方式是這樣：比特幣從未出現過兩個標準差的拋售，但這次大約有 1.5 倍的極端拋售。我就是在這些拋售期間加碼，六月、七月，還有一月、二月我都買進並持有，因為我認為這個週期會拉長，甚至會變成超級週期。這次只是週期中的修正，我認為我們還有很長的路要走。How I deal with this is: we've never reached two standard deviations in Bitcoin, but this time we got to about one and a half times the extreme sell-off. So, I just bought during these sell-offs in June and July, and also in January and February, and just added and held because I think the cycle will be longer. I think it's going to be a supercycle. I think it was a mid-cycle correction, and I think we've got a long way to go.
原因很簡單，一旦你把這些數據攤開來看，答案就非常明顯。現在整個金融體系都在加密基礎上重建，這不只是今年的事，未來每一年都會持續。股票市場、債券市場、衍生品市場，全部都會搬到鏈上。我們也在加密世界自己打造新的金融體系，這就是 DeFi 和其他組件。The reason is simple. Once you lay it out on paper, it's crystal clear. Now the entire financial system is being built on crypto foundations. This isn't just about this year—it's something that's going to continue every year for the rest of time. The entire stock market, bond market, derivatives market, all of it will move on-chain. We're also building a new financial system ourselves in crypto. That's DeFi and all the other components.
無限增長與政策推動的超級浪潮
突然之間，彷彿外星人降臨，人口增長變成無限，這是大繁榮時代。我們有新的人口進來，而且各國政府還是得繼續讓貨幣貶值，因為生產力成長需要時間，才能讓債務佔 GDP 比例下降，還是得付利息，所以這個趨勢也會持續下去。這又是一波超級浪潮。Suddenly, it's as if aliens landed and we have infinite population growth. These are boom times. We have new people coming in, and governments still have to keep devaluing the currency because it takes time for productivity to grow enough for the debt-to-GDP ratio to fall. They still have to pay interest, so this will keep going. So this is another superwave.
我們經歷的浪潮是貨幣貶值，現在又有來自各方的採用浪潮。這一切發生在史上最大規模的資本支出繁榮期。未來經濟投入的資金會比以往任何時候都多，中美兩國都不可能讓對方贏，也輸不起這場競賽，所以我們會有兩套系統，沒有人想讓單一體系主宰世界。The wave we've been riding is currency devaluation, and now we have an adoption wave coming from every angle. All this is happening in the midst of the biggest capital expenditure boom in history. More money will be spent in the economy than ever before. The race is so big that neither China nor the US can let the other win, and neither can afford to lose the race, so it's important for everyone that we have two systems here. Nobody wants a single system dominating the world.
所以有無限資本需要投入這場賽局，無論是印鈔還是改變銀行體系規則，這都是他們會玩的遊戲，日本也是這樣做。這就是為什麼日本要拉高殖利率曲線斜率、讓日圓貶值，目的就是要重啟銀行體系、刺激放款。過去二十年，私部門都在去槓桿，現在即將完全反轉，這代表大量資金即將湧入。So there's infinite capital that needs to be spent on this, whether that means printing money or changing banking system rules in any way. That's the game they're going to play. It's the game Japan is playing too. That's why they're steepening the yield curve and weakening their currency. It's all about reigniting the banking system, steepening the yield curve, and stimulating lending. The private sector has been deleveraging for two decades, and now it's about to do the exact opposite. That means a lot of money is coming our way.
進入指數時代與未來展望
所以，我的想法是：你們還沒領悟嗎？這個指數時代，就是我這幾年一直在講的東西。我大概在 2020 或 2021 年提出這個詞，描述我們正前往的未來。現在我們正處於這個時代的核心階段，一切都在加速，所有東西都在垂直上升。我知道加密圈的人都覺得我們還沒享受到這波上升，但事實已經非常明顯。So, my idea is: haven't you figured it out yet? This exponential age—it's the thing I've been talking about for years. I think I coined the term in 2020 or 2021 about where we're heading. We're now at the heart of it. We're now in the acceleration phase for all this. Everything is going vertical. I know everyone in crypto feels like it hasn't gone up for us yet, but it's crystal clear.
希望你們都覺得這場分享有收穫。如果你對這些內容有興趣，我要推薦一下我的新書。我的書現在已經開放預購，11 月 3 日正式上市，內容主要談萬物程式碼、指數時代、經濟奇點，以及我們如何在這個時代修正自己的未來，因為這真的很複雜。如果你喜歡這些內容，歡迎支持我的書。非常感謝大家！Anyway, I hope you enjoyed that. If you're interested in any of this, I'll plug my book. My book is out now, it's available for pre-order now, and it'll be available on November 3rd. It's basically about the code of everything, the exponential age, the economic singularity, where we're all heading, and how to fix your future in the midst of all this, because it's really complicated. So if you liked any of this, I'd love for you to get a copy of the book. Anyway, thank you all very much.
