Murad Mahmudov：迷因幣超級循環兩年後的預言

0:00現實經濟的K型分化與財富轉移

0:00大家好，今天我要來談談迷因幣超級循環、加密貨幣，以及我認為這些世界將會走向哪裡。首先，讓我們看看現在的現況。我認為，現今社會對一般人來說，生存越來越困難。平均收入成長速度、房價、GDP、貨幣供給、企業獲利、股市，以及股市（含股息再投資）都在不同速度成長。你可以把這些看作是不同的社會階級。在我看來，印鈔以及其他因素，正逐漸、持續且有系統地把財富從窮人轉移到富人身上。以買房來說，你現在的生活比你爸那一代難上兩倍半，而且不只房子，連食物也是一樣。Hey guys, today I'm going to be talking about the meme coin supercycle, crypto, and where I believe these worlds are going. So first things first, where are we now? I believe that it is becoming increasingly difficult to survive in this world as a normal human being. This is the rate of growth of average incomes, the rate of growth of housing prices, GDP, the money supply, corporate profits, the stock market, and the stock market with dividends reinvested. You can think of each of these as a distinct social class. And in my opinion, money printing, as well as other things, are gradually, consistently, and systematically shifting the wealth from the poor to the rich. As far as buying a house, your life is two and a half times harder than your dad's. And it's not just about houses. The same goes for food as well.

1:00自從我兩年前在 TOKEN2049 演講後，這些趨勢只會加速。K型經濟不等人，現在公司待在私有市場的時間更長，IPO 數量減少，估值卻更高。我認為整個金融體系正從機會的載體，慢慢轉變成財富榨取的工具。與此同時，巨型企業的利潤率創下新高。這些我兩年前講過的趨勢，如今都在加速發生。東西變得更貴，財富不均比以往更嚴重，大家都怕被永遠困在底層。全球貨幣供給每年成長將近 10%，貧富差距擴大速度創歷史新高。Since my speech in TOKEN2049 two years ago, all of these same exact trends have only accelerated. The K-shaped economy waits for no man. Companies are now staying private for longer. There are fewer IPOs happening per year, and they're happening at significantly higher valuations. I believe that the entire financial system is slowly transforming from vehicle of opportunity to a vehicle of wealth extraction. And at the same time, the mega corporate profit margins are at all-time highs. Now, all of these trends that I've discussed two years ago, they've only continued to accelerate. Things are now more expensive, wealth inequality is higher than ever before, and everybody is afraid of being left behind in the permanent underclass. The global money supply is growing at almost 10% per year, and the gap between the richest and the poorest people in society is growing at the fastest rate ever in history.

1:58現在職缺減少，股市卻創新高。你放眼望去，經濟裡到處都是這種 K 型分化的圖表。我相信這些趨勢未來五年只會更加劇烈。以前 29 歲能做的事，像是買房，現在要等到 41、42 歲才辦得到。這些傳統中產階級的里程碑，對年輕人來說越來越遙不可及，而消費主力變成了年長且有錢的人。基本上，現在享受人生的主要是老一輩和有錢人，年輕人則被邊緣化。Now, job openings are down while the stock market is up. And there are hundreds, if not thousands, of such K-shaped charts everywhere in the economy, no matter where you look. And I believe that these trends are only going to intensify and accelerate even more in the next five years. Things that you used to do at 29 years old, such as buying a house, now people are doing them at 41, 42 years old. And these traditional middle-class milestones are increasingly out of reach, obviously for the young people, while the old and the wealthy are now most of the consumer spending. Essentially, it's the old and the wealthy that are predominantly enjoying their lives right now and not the younger people.

2:38全民賭博時代與財富焦慮

2:38你可以看到，上面是 X 世代和更老世代的家庭總財富，下面則是千禧世代和更年輕世代的財富。現在每個人都在賭博，不管是運動博彩、迷因幣交易、預測市場，還是零日選擇權。散戶的賭博和交易損失每年都在默默攀升，現在已經累積到數千億美元。現在大家都對錢著迷，不管喜不喜歡，大多數致富的路徑都被封死。我認為，人類正被系統性地淘汰、貶值、取代。Above you see the total household wealth of Gen X and older, and below you see the wealth of millennials and younger. And everybody's a gambler right now, whether it's sports betting, meme coin trading, prediction markets or zero-day options. But retail gambling and trading losses quietly continue to climb every single year and are now in the hundreds of billions. Money is now everybody's obsession, whether they like it or not, and most paths to wealth have been walled off. I believe that humans are now being systematically disrupted, devalued, and replaced.

3:12那加密貨幣呢？我認為這是目前加密產業的市場地圖。未來會有三大類：樂透型（Lottery tickets）、價值儲存/超級信仰型（Store of value/mega cults）、以及商業型（Businesses）。現在幾乎每個評論家、部落客、VC 分析師都說，只有價值儲存和有收入的幣才有價值。但這不是什麼新觀點，2018 年以來加密 Twitter 上就一直有人這樣講。雖然市場花了八年才調整，但現在這已經是共識。更大的問題是，接下來會發生什麼？Now, where are we in crypto? I believe that this is the current market map of the crypto industry. In the future, you're going to have three categories. You're going to have lottery tickets, you're going to have stores of value slash mega cults, and you're going to have businesses. Now, literally every pundit, ex-blogger, Substack blogger, VC analyst is saying stores of value and revenue coins are the only valuable things in crypto. But it is not a new take. It's something that has been parroted over and over on crypto Twitter since 2018. Yes, it took eight years for the market to adjust, but now this opinion is consensus. The bigger question is, what is next?

3:51加密金融化與迷因幣的現況

3:51現在加密貨幣越來越像傳統金融。你看到一堆老一輩、ETF、穿西裝的傳統金融人、指數、金屬都上 DEX 和 CEX，甚至這場會議有一半的討論都在講機構化和把傳統資產搬上鏈。很明顯，密碼龐克和自由意志主義的熱情已經被大幅削弱。股票持有時間每十年都在縮短，加密貨幣、尤其是迷因幣，這個趨勢更是加速百倍。Now, crypto is just increasingly simply finance, right? With all the boomers, with all the ETFs, with all the suits, with all the TradFi people, with the indices and metals on DEXs and CEXs, and even on this conference. Fifty percent of the panels and speakers are about institutionalization and putting the traditional assets on chain. Suffice to say that the cypherpunk and libertarian fervors have been significantly diminished. The holding times of stocks have been going down every decade, and crypto, and specifically meme coins, are speedrunning this trend at a hundred times the speed.

4:24我認為大致上有五種出路：一是專注本業、繼續省錢、投資傳統金融體系，但本質上你只是在撐起 1% 的頂層；二是放棄、躺平，但你只是在養娛樂公司；三是用選票表達意見，這效率如何就讓大家自己判斷；四是極端賭博、當日沖銷，等等我們會再談；五是用你的錢投票，經濟上團結起來，打造社群。事實上，選擇權交易、運動博彩、剛發行的迷因幣交易，絕大多數人都在賠錢。93% 玩選擇權的人賠錢，95% 運動賭博者賠錢，97% pump fund 交易者賠錢或打平，Polymarket 也一樣，只有 3% 賺錢。Now, I believe that there are five ways out, generally speaking, right? You can focus on your job, continue cutting costs, save and reinvest into the traditional financial system. But fundamentally, you're simply propping up the top 1%. You can kind of give up, escape, lay down and rot, but really you're just propping up the entertainment companies. You can vote with your vote. I'll let you decide whether that's an efficient way or not. You can kind of hyper gamble and day trade. We'll talk about that in a bit. Or you can vote with your money. You can unite economically into a single community-building effort. Trading options, betting on sports, and trading newly launched meme coins is overwhelmingly losing money. 93% of people lose money trading options. 95% of bettors lose money on sports betting. 97% of pump fund traders lose money or break even. Or 97% of Polymarket traders fund the gains of the top 3%.

5:20現在，這些平台所做的事情，就是把前0.1%參與者的獲利當作成功案例來宣傳，同時很巧妙地忽略了那50萬、60萬、70萬個賠錢的人，而這些人其實才是資助那前0.1%獲利來源的群體。而名人更可以說是最糟糕的例子。事實上，長期下來，賺到比最低工資還多的交易者不到1%。那些在所謂「戰壕」裡能夠持續獲利的人，他們會用專業的硬體、大規模系統化的錢包追蹤、大規模系統化的關係圖譜建立、積極的多錢包操作、毫不留情的打包、毫不留情的狙擊。最重要的是，他們會系統性地大量發行迷因幣。Now, what all of these platforms are doing, they're using the gains of the top 0.1% of participants as success stories, while conveniently leaving out the 500, 600, 700,000 people who lost money and who fund the gains of the top 0.1%. And celebrities are arguably the worst example. Now, fewer than 1% of traders earn above minimum wage over the long term. And the people that actually make consistent profits in the so-called trenches, they use specialized hardware, they use systematic wallet tracking at scale, systematic relationship graph building at scale, aggressive multi-walleting, ruthless bundling, ruthless sniping. And most importantly, systematic mass meme coin launching.

6:06如果你沒有在做這些事情，或者你沒有在做大家所說的社交操弄，比如把單一代幣綁定70%的供應量、內部群組聊天、內線消息，就像過去兩年許多代幣發生的那樣，協同拉抬和拋售、未公開的付費合作。如果你沒有同時做這兩件事，而且你們大多數人都沒有，那你就處於極大的劣勢。If you're not doing these things, or if you're not doing what people call social trickery, where you bundle a single coin with 70% of the supply, insider group chats, you know, insider info, like happened with a bunch of coins over the past two years, coordinated pump and dumping, undisclosed paid partnerships. If you aren't doing both of these things simultaneously, and most of you are not, you're at a huge disadvantage.

6:30而這一切還要再加上每一層『迷因金融』堆疊的手續費，本質上就是賭博基礎建設。不管是這些基礎設施還是參與者，他們都需要你繼續賭下去，才能繼續從這些資金流中抽成。兩年前我們談過財富榨取金字塔，現在這已經變成全球超過百萬賭博成癮者在資助 Web 終端、社交交易錢包、發幣平台和各種量化團隊的利潤。And all of this is on top of all of the kind of fees at each layer of the so-called meme-fi stack, or really essentially gambling infrastructure, in my opinion. Now, whether it's the infrastructure itself or the participants in it, they need you to continue gambling in order to continue extracting from these flows. Now, two years ago, we talked about the pyramid of sophisticated wealth extraction. Now, this has shifted to what I believe is simply over a million gambling addicts all over the world that are financing the profits of web terminals, social trading wallets, launchpads, and various quants.

7:08行為轉變與未來估值新趨勢

7:08剛剛講的是資產觀點，現在來看行為觀點：左邊是極度激烈、幾秒決勝負的 PvP 遊戲，右邊則是持有多年、社群經營、甚至運動式的 PvE 遊戲。那未來會怎樣？未來的估值會怎麼變？這些都是現狀，真正有趣的是未來。你越能準確預測未來，就越能正確佈局、受益最大。現在整個加密圈都在談 RWA、資產代幣化、收入、極端賭博、社交交易，說明年每個人都會變成交易員。但接下來呢？首先，我們要正確理解估值。Now, that was the asset view. This is what I believe is the behavior view: ruthless, very aggressive, multi-second. Very hyper-competitive PvP games on the left, and PvE games on the right, which are multi-year holds, community building, even movement building, if you will. Now, where are we going? What are the future shifts in valuations? Everything we discussed so far is just the present. But I think what's interesting is the future. The more accurate you are at predicting the future, the more you stand to benefit by positioning properly. Everybody in crypto right now is talking about RWA, tokenization, revenue, or hyper gambling and social trading, and how literally everybody is about to become a trader next year. But what comes next? First, we need to understand valuations properly.

7:49這些年來，加密圈有過 fat protocol、fat middleware、fat app、fat wallet、fat distribution 等各種估值理論。我認為這張圖是加密史上最重要的圖表，由我朋友 Eon Reborn 製作。X 軸是社群裡的千人 DAO 數量，Y 軸是市值。這清楚顯示，社群才是所有幣價值的核心驅動力。Over the years in crypto, we've had the fat protocol thesis, the fat middleware thesis, the fat app thesis, the fat wallet thesis, the fat distribution thesis, and many others. Now, I believe that this is the single most important chart in crypto history. It was done by my friend Eon Reborn. And essentially, on the x-axis, you have the number of thousand DAOs in the community, and on the y-axis, you have the market cap, the result. And I believe it clearly shows that community is the core and the main driver of value for all of these coins.

8:20現在，這是我對加密貨幣估值的公式。你會有我所謂的技術溢價。這些包括速度、成本、可編程性、隱私、稀缺性的可信度等等。你還會有金融溢價，例如手續費、收入、利潤等等。然後你還有社會溢價，像是社群、信仰、敘事、使命感，以及這個幣的運動性。當然，在某種程度上，代幣經濟學也很重要。我相信，這就是推動每一個加密貨幣中大型成功幣種估值的核心因素。這個框架，我認為，甚至可以解釋為什麼像 SpaceX 這樣的傳統股票公司可以有超過 100 倍本益比的交易。Now, this is my formula for crypto valuation. You have what I call the technical premium. These are things such as speed, cost, programmability, privacy, credibility of scarcity, etc. You have the financial premium, such as fees, revenues, profits, etc. And then you have the social premium, things such as community, things such as belief, the narrative, the mission, and the movementness of the coin. And to some extent, tokenomics, of course, matters as well. And I believe that this is what are the core driver valuations of each of the big successful coins that we've had in crypto and that we have in crypto right now. And this framework, I believe, can even explain why traditional stock companies such as SpaceX can trade over 100x PE.

9:08基本上，這些資產的社會溢價非常高。基本上，他們建立了一個成功的線上信仰圈。他們建立了一個成功的線上運動，而這讓他們的估值遠高於他們的財務狀況。2021 年的 GME 也發生了完全一樣的事情。Essentially, the social premium in those assets are extremely high. Essentially, they've built a successful online cult. They've built a successful online movement, and this allows them to be valued significantly higher than their financials. And the same exact thing has happened with GME in 2021 as well.

9:27超級金融化、資產代幣化與無形資產

9:27接下來談談超級金融化和資產代幣化。我認為這是一個千年級的趨勢，幾百年來一直在發生，20 世紀的證券化、現在的代幣化都是例子。這背後有個無形的過程，就是不斷擴大什麼東西可以被擁有、買賣、交易、抵押、變成投資報酬。這個系統只想要更多：更多資產類別、更多連結、更多路徑、更多流動性、更多手續費。大家說一切都會被代幣化，但我覺得他們講得還不夠遠，很多人只停在有形資產，沒講到故事的後半段。我認為下一波會聚焦在無形資產。Now let's talk about hyperfinancialization and tokenization. I believe this is a thousand-year-old trend. You've seen this happen over centuries. Famously with securitization in the 20th century, and right now with tokenization. And what is happening? There's an invisible process whose goal is to continuously expand what can be owned, bought, sold, traded, borrowed against, and turned into investment returns. The system wants more. More of everything. More asset classes, more connections, more routes, more liquidity, and more fees. Now, when people talk about tokenization, they say everything will be tokenized. But I don't, I think they don't go far enough. They talk about almost everybody stops at the tangibles, and they don't go far enough in the story. I believe the upcoming wave will focus on the intangibles.

10:13未來每家公司、每筆債務、每個實體和金融資產都會被代幣化，連每個笑話、每個時刻都會被代幣化。但我覺得最有趣的是，每個社群、運動、意識形態也都會被金融化。這些是現在正在被代幣化的東西，但我認為這些只是 1.5 倍的機會，真正的 10 萬倍機會在於無形資產的代幣化。Every company, every debt, every physical and financial asset are going to get tokenized. Every joke and every moment are getting tokenized as well. But what I think is interesting is every community, every movement, and every ideology getting financialized as well. These are the things that are being tokenized right now, and I think that those are simply 1.5x opportunities. I think tokenizing intangibles is the real 100,000x opportunity ahead.

10:38AI 代理人與未來的市場競爭

10:38AI 正變得更便宜、更聰明、更快、更會處理長期任務，還越來越開源。Jevons 悖論意味著未來會有十億個 AI 代理人湧入加密世界，這些 AI 代理人會把加密貨幣當作交易媒介和價值儲存。AI 代理人會被極大壓力驅使，用盡一切手段賺錢。大家都在談 AI 取代白領，但他們也會搞駭客、詐騙、加密交易、迷因幣發行、搶單、綁單。今天你被人類收割，未來你會被 AI 代理人收割，直到大家什麼都不剩。Now, AI is becoming cheaper, it's becoming smarter, it's becoming faster, and it's becoming better at long horizon tasks, and is increasingly open source. Jevons paradox is implying that we're going to have one billion AI agents flooding the world of crypto. And of course, these entities are going to be holding crypto as their MOE and as their SOV. Now, AI agents are going to be heavily pressured to make money by any means possible. And most people talk about them replacing white-collar jobs, but they're going to be hacking, scamming, as well as crypto trading, meme coin launching, meme coin sniping, and meme coin bundling as well. And today, you are extracted by humans, but in the future, you're going to be extracted by AI agents, in many cases until people have nothing left.

11:22因為現在經濟活動和市場越來越依賴運算能力、能源和資料來擴展，整個世界以及其中的每一個市場都將越來越趨向贏者全拿的局面。即使每個人都會擁有一個 AI 代理人，那些大型企業的 AI 代理人也會比你的聰明十倍、速度快十倍。你已經可以從高頻交易公司成為 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 最大客戶之一這件事上看到這個趨勢。所以我認為主觀交易員將會被顛覆，業餘系統化交易員也是如此。接下來，我會說明哪些工作比較容易受到影響，哪些工作則比較不容易受到影響。And because now economic activity and markets increasingly scale with more compute, energy, and data, the entire world and every market in it is going to become increasingly winner-take-all. And even though everybody is going to have an AI agent, the mega corporate AI agents are going to be 10 times smarter and faster than yours. You're already seeing this with the fact that HFT firms are some of the biggest customers of Anthropic and OpenAI. So I think discretionary traders are going to get disrupted, and amateur systematic traders as well. Now, these are the jobs that I think are more vulnerable and jobs that are less vulnerable.

11:53你可以把這個劃分為左邊的有界且短期任務，以及右邊的無界且長期任務。而我認為接下來會發生的事情是，你已經看到前半部分正在被商品化。最終，AI 也會進軍第四類任務。那這代表什麼呢？你已經可以從最新一屆 Y Combinator 的新創團隊看到，大多數公司現在都只是硬體和硬體新創。所以軟體創投已經是一個逐漸式微的領域。而我認為接下來會發生的事情是，AI 智能代理，當然還有未來的機器人，將會把人類推向這個光譜最右端的位置。But you can break this down into bounded and short horizon tasks on the left and unbounded and long horizon tasks on the right. And what I believe is going to happen is you're already seeing commoditization of the first half. Eventually, AI is going to come for cluster number four as well. So what does this mean? You're already seeing with the latest Y Combinator batch that most of the companies are just hardware and hardware startups right now. So the software VC is a dying game. And what I believe is going to happen is AI agents and, of course, eventually robotics are going to push humanity towards the far right end of the spectrum.

12:26人類投資行為的未來轉型

12:26這就引出一個問題：未來哪些金融資產會表現最好？我認為加密圈也會發生同樣的事。AI 會取代所有一週內（甚至一個月內）的交易，人類會被迫往極長期持有和信仰靠攏。其實，最近大家瘋 FOMO 和社交交易 app，本質上是渴望更長的持有期。戰壕交易和極端賭博會像線上西洋棋、線上撲克一樣被解決。什麼會有價值？我認為交易員會被迫變成 HODLer 和信仰者，你別無選擇只能長期持有。這不是因為大家突然變自律，而是生存本能。大家會因為大規模被取代而加入長期主義社群。And this begs the question, which financial assets will do well in that world? I believe the same exact thing is going to happen in crypto. AI is going to replace all forms of trading that are under a week, if not under a month, and humans are going to be increasingly pushed towards believing and extremely long hold times. Essentially, what I believe is even the recent shift that you've seen towards FOMO and other social trading apps is essentially people yearning for longer hold times. Trenching and hyper gambling is going to be solved like online chess and online poker. So what will be valuable? I believe that traders will be forced to become hodlers and believers. You will have no choice but to hodl. This is not because people suddenly become disciplined. This is simply a matter of survival. People will be joining long-termist communities as a reaction to mass displacement.

13:14絕大多數活躍交易者都會賠錢。如果現在是 93%，我相信幾年後會變成 99.9%。目前，很多部落客都在說每個人都會成為高速交易者，每個人都會成為幣的創造者。我認為他們非常短視且錯誤。我相信，AI 代理人將會帶來一場巨大的轉變，從賭博轉向信仰，從短期投機轉向長期持有，從玩家對玩家（PvP）轉向玩家對環境（PvE），而價值將會流向那些已經被最堅定、最長期持有的幣種。現在，人類所進行的交易和投資，將會轉變為社群建設、集體儀式、信仰工程，而在我看來，在最理想的情況下，會變成一場運動的建立。The supermajority of all active traders lose money. If it's 93% today, I believe it's going to be 99.9% a few years from now. Now, right now, a lot of bloggers are saying everyone will be a fast-based trader, everyone will be a coin creator. I believe they are super short-termist and wrong. I believe that AI agents are going to cause a massive shift from gambling to believing, from short-term speculation to a long-term HODL, from PvP to PvE, and the value will flow to coins that are already being hardcore HODLed and diamond-handed the hardest and the longest. Now, trading and investing as done by humans will transform into community building, collective ritual, cult engineering, and, in my opinion, at its best, movement building.

13:55就像被動式管理正在取代主動式管理一樣，加密貨幣領域也會出現類似的現象。我相信你現在基本上必須找到屬於自己的避風港。當你意識到自己其實沒有選擇時，選擇就變得簡單了。相信吧。Just like passive management is replacing active management, a similar phenomenon will occur with crypto. And I believe that you have to essentially find your sanctuary now. The choice is easy when you realize you have none. Believe.

14:08迷因幣的未來與信仰經濟

14:08AI 不只會來搶戰壕和極端賭博，還會來搶效用、可編程性、速度、成本效率。如果 ZKash 能因技術或稀有密碼學開發者『顛覆』BTC，那 AI 未來也能創造更優的版本。諷刺的是，最值得 HODL 的加密資產，可能反而不是靠技術或現金流，而是完全靠信仰。看 AI 轉型怎麼走，頂級迷因幣可能比頂級價值儲存幣或收入幣還安全。Furthermore, I believe that AI will not just come for trenches and hyper gambling. They're going to come for utility, programmability, speed, cost efficiency as well. If ZKash can quote-unquote disrupt BTC due to having better tech or rarer cryptography devs, what will stop AI from creating yet another superior version further out on the Pareto frontier? Ironically, I believe that the best HODL in crypto may be something that's not tied to technology or cash flows at all. Depending on how the AI transition goes, top meme coins may be a safer investment than top store of value or revenue coins.

14:42現在來談迷因幣。這個領域正在快速分化，我認為在賭博層級，投資和娛樂已經合而為一；但在運動層級，投資和精神信仰也合而為一。我預測，極端賭博層會出現更短持有期、更多幣、天花板更低；但運動型迷因幣則會有更長持有期、更少大幣、天花板更高。我把迷因幣看成『捐款箱擴音器模型』，大家把錢、時間、勞力投入想讓全世界聽到的理念和概念，大家團結起來反擊人類被取代的現象，這就是最強大迷因幣的本質。Now, let's talk about meme coins. There's a rapid bifurcation of the space that's happening, and I believe that at the gambling level, investing and entertainment are merging into one. However, at the movement level, investing and spirituality are merging into one. And my prediction is, at the hyper-gambling level, you're going to see increasingly lower hold times, more coins, and lower ceilings. But on the movement coin side, you're going to see larger hold times. Fewer big coins and bigger ceilings. Now, this is how I see meme coins. I call this the donation box megaphone model. Essentially, people are investing money, time, and labor in ideas and concepts that they want to be loudly heard all over the world. And essentially, people are banding together as a counter reaction to human replace. This is essentially what the best, strongest, and biggest meme coins are doing.

15:30順帶一提，我認為把迷因幣和股票配對，根本沒有任何實質意義。我覺得這在功能上毫無作用。事實上，這樣做的財富效應還比跟主流加密貨幣配對來得更低，反而更糟。我認為對股票本身的影響也很小，即使是目前最大的案例，實際上累積的股票數量也相當有限。簡單來說，你無法靠廉價的代幣經濟遊戲去打造真正長久的信仰。這可能會有點爭議，但我認為未來不會是動物幣的天下。我覺得這些幣缺乏未來三、四年所需要的那種強烈熱情。更重要的是，很多人沒搞懂的一點，就是原生於加密圈的迷因，永遠會比外部帶進來的迷因表現得更好。Now, side note. I believe that pairing meme coins with stocks does absolutely nothing. I think it does nothing functionally. I think it's worse due to lower wealth effects compared to if you paired with a crypto major. I think the impact on the stock itself is small, and even the biggest examples so far have accumulated relatively trivial amounts of the stock. The TLDR is you cannot engineer true long-lasting belief with cheap tokenomic games. Now, this is going to be a bit controversial, but I think the future is not animal coins. I think they lack the kind of intense zeal that will be required in the next three or four years. And importantly, and what a lot of people don't understand, is that crypto native memes will always outperform memes from the outside.

16:13運動型迷因幣與財富再分配

16:13我相信，未來在加密貨幣領域的巨大成功，將會是龐大的運動。而有發行代幣的運動，將會大幅超越沒有代幣的運動。而那些本身就是運動的代幣，將會大幅超越那些不是運動的代幣。最好的資產，將會是財富再分配型資產。它們的職責不是產生收益，而是作為一個空杯，從其他地方吸收財富。你可以把這想像成一種投票，用你的金錢來投票。我認為這個趨勢還處於早期階段。舉例來說，如果你不喜歡法幣，你不再需要去說服官僚，你只需要買入BTC。Now, I believe that the future mega successes in crypto are going to be giant movements. And movements with a token are going to massively outperform movements without a token. And tokens that are movements are going to massively outperform tokens that aren't movements. The best assets are going to be wealth redistribution assets. Their job isn't to produce revenue. Their job is to act as an empty cup that absorbs wealth from somewhere else. And think of this as voting. Think of this as voting with your money. And I believe that this trend is still in its early stages. For example, if you dislike fiat currency, you no longer try to convince bureaucrats. You simply buy BTC.

16:51我相信我們會看到更多這樣的例子。隨著賺取收入的機會減少，這聽起來可能有點荒謬，但我相信未來會有數千萬甚至上億的人，他們的全職工作將會是成為一個代幣化社群的成員和推廣者。And I believe that we're going to see many more examples of this. As opportunities for income go down, this is going to sound silly, but I believe that tens or even hundreds of millions of people, their full-time jobs in the future is going to be to be a tokenized community member and evangelist.

17:07如果投資變成超級精神化，我們正在見證意識形態投資人的崛起，那麼最能進化成運動的加密資產會變最大。你已經看到證據，過去十年最像運動的幣表現最好。我認為，這就是所有迷因資產、甚至所有加密資產的階層結構。終極目標就是成為一個運動。最終，價值會流向那些一、大家想長期 HODL、不想賣，二、還有很多人尚未加入的幣。我稱之為 fat movement thesis。And if investing is becoming hyper-spiritual, and we're witnessing the rise of the ideological investor, then crypto assets that evolve the closest into movements are going to be the biggest ones. Now, you're already seeing evidence of this. Over the past 10 years, the coins that resemble movements have been the best outperformers. And I believe that this is essentially how you should see the hierarchy of all memetic assets, if not all crypto assets. The holy grail is to become a movement. Now, ultimately, value will flow to coins which, one, people want to HODL and not sell for a very long time, and two, a lot more people are yet to join. I call this the fat movement thesis.

17:47未來的價值核心：社交溢價與信仰

17:47那麼該怎麼做，什麼會有價值，哪些資產會表現得最好呢？首先，我相信財富不平等將成為我們這個時代最重要的議題。我也相信，即使我們進入經濟豐盛的時代，關於人際關係的領域——也就是處理人類尊嚴、人類地位和人類情感的那一部分——將會逐漸成為經濟中最重要的部分。自從2024年以來，我一直在說，未來將是後效用、後軟體、後商品的時代。而你已經可以從整個人類歷史中看到這樣的轉變，數百年前，你的身體是你最有價值的東西；而今天，則是你的頭腦。So what to do, what will be valuable, and which assets will do best? First of all, I believe that wealth inequality is going to become the single biggest issue of our time. And I believe that even if we enter an age of economic abundance, relational sector, the one that deals with human dignity, human status, and human emotion, is going to gradually become the biggest part of the economy. I've been saying since 2024 that the future is post-utility, post-software, and post-commodity. And you've already seen this throughout human history, with a shift where hundreds of years ago, your body was the most valuable thing about you. Today, it is your mind.

18:25但我相信，在未來，真正會累積最多價值的，將會是你的情商、你的靈魂，以及你的精神。我也相信，這樣的轉變同樣會發生在加密貨幣領域。But I believe that in the future, it will be your EQ, your soul, and your spirit, which is going to accrue the most value. And I believe that the same exact shift is going to happen in crypto.

18:35現在，市場主要重視技術溢價和金融溢價。但我相信，在接下來的五年內，我們會看到價值重心轉向社會溢價，這將成為精神層面的瓶頸，而價值也會在這裡不成比例地累積。如果 AI 把我們全部消滅了，那這一切其實都不重要。但如果 AI 沒有把我們全部消滅，那麼我相信價值會從技術和金融溢價轉移到社會溢價。在我看來，目前大多數的解決方式都不是達成你目標的有效方法。And right now, the market predominantly values the technical premium and the financial premium. But I believe that over the next five years, we're going to see a shift towards the social premium being the spiritual bottleneck, and that's where the value is going to disproportionately accrue. If AI kills us all, then none of this matters anyway. But if AI doesn't kill us all, then I believe the value will shift from the technical and financial premia to the social premium. And in my opinion, most of these ways out are not an efficient ways to achieve your goal.

19:06我們一起成功的最高機率、最高期望值的方式，就是用你的資金投票，經濟上團結起來，停止頻繁交易，相信某個理念，建立社群，並推動一個運動。The highest probability and the highest EV way for us to succeed together is to vote with your money and unite economically, to stop trading, to believe in something, to community build and to movement build.

19:19最終預言：迷因幣顛覆一切

19:19如果我的理論對，那你就該做多運動、做多社交溢價、做多長期持有、做多熱情、做多財富再分配型資產。我預測，最終最大的加密資產會是完全沒有技術效用、沒有財務效用的東西。所有路徑都會通往財富再分配、圍繞迷因打造的金融化運動。我相信某個迷因幣會超越它所建構的 Layer 1 鏈。最瘋狂、最具爭議、最偏執的預言是：迷因幣會超越 Bitcoin，甚至最終超越整個股市。謝謝大家！So if I'm right about my theory, then you have to long movements, you have to long the social premium, long, long holding times. Long passion and long wealth redistribution assets. My prediction is that eventually the biggest crypto asset will be one with zero technical utility and zero financial utility. And all roads lead to financialized movements with memetics built around wealth redistribution. I believe that a meme coin will flip the layer one chain that it is built on. And my craziest and most controversial and most schizo prediction is that a meme coin will flip Bitcoin. And eventually, a meme coin will flip the entire stock market. Thank you, guys.