Muneeb Ali：比特幣前線與鏈上資本市場新機會

0:00比特幣的前線與 AI 安全危機

0:00大家好，我是 Muneeb Ali，Stacks 的創辦人。我大約在 2013 年開始接觸比特幣，到現在已經在比特幣的前線建設了將近 13 年。今天我要談談比特幣的前線，我們作為比特幣社群，未來幾年需要面對和克服哪些挑戰。Hi everyone, Muneeb here, founder of Stacks. I started in Bitcoin around 2013, so I've been building on the frontier of Bitcoin for almost like 13 years at this point, and today I'm going to talk about the frontier of Bitcoin. What are the challenges that we as the Bitcoin community need to work on and overcome in the coming years?

0:33在開始之前，我想分享一個小故事，這是我第一次公開談這件事。我住在紐約，有一天在紐約街頭散步時，遇到了一位老朋友。他在加密圈很久了，但其實並不專注於比特幣，比較關注其他鏈。他說一直想找我聊聊，因為他很擔心 AI 協助下的區塊鏈安全問題，想知道比特幣在這方面做了什麼。But before I start, I'm going to share a little story, and this is the first time that I'm publicly talking about it. So what is the story? I live in New York. I'm just walking around. One of the days on the streets of New York, and I bump into an old friend. This guy has been in crypto for a very long time, but is not really in Bitcoin. He focuses more on other chains. And he's like, Hey, I've been meaning to talk to you. I'm very concerned about AI-assisted security problems with blockchains. And he wanted to learn from me that what is Bitcoin doing about it, right?

1:15我跟他說，其實我自己也很擔心這個問題，而且我覺得比特幣目前根本沒做什麼。這想法讓人很害怕。這大概是六個月前的事。我們越聊越發現，如果有前沿 AI 模型真的在 Bitcoin Core 找到漏洞，對我們大多數人來說就完蛋了。不管你在做哪條鏈、哪個專案，只要比特幣爆掉，整個產業都會受到巨大衝擊，比去年 10/10 還要嚴重。And I was like, dude, I'm actually concerned about it as well, and I don't think Bitcoin is doing anything about it. And that was a scary thought. Like, this is pre sort of like me-tos, like this sort of like, you know, six months back. And the more we started talking, we realized that if a frontier model actually finds a bug in Bitcoin Core, it's over for most of us, right? It doesn't matter what blockchain you work on, doesn't matter what your project is, whatever you're doing, if Bitcoin nukes, this industry would get a massive, massive hit, like much worse than what happened on 10/10 last year.

1:58我開始有點慌，趕著要離開，坐上 Uber。我在一些比特幣 OG 群組裡，開始傳訊息給大家。這些人有的是 2011、2012、2013 年就進來的，有不同世代，也有一些最大公司的 CEO。我問大家，有沒有人認識 Anthropic？我們能不能取得 Mythos 的存取權，確保沒有漏洞？結果發現，沒有人做過這件事，也沒有人有 Anthropic 的存取權。So I start freaking out a little bit. I had to run. I'm now sitting in an Uber, and I am part of a bunch of these Bitcoin OG groups, and I start sort of like texting everybody. So imagine these are people from, like, who got into Bitcoin in, like, 2011, 2012, 2013. Like, there are different classes. Some of the largest companies, the CEOs of folks, and I'm basically asking people. Hey, do we have contacts to Anthropic? Can we get access to Mythos to make sure that there is no bug there? And I'm realizing that actually, no one—not only that nobody has done this, no one had access to Anthropic.

2:38我算是少數會為這件事失眠的人，大多數比特幣圈的人並不擔心。最後我們在 Mythos 還沒公開時取得了存取權，實際用前沿模型跑了 Bitcoin Core，幸好結果是乾淨的。如果不是這樣，想想當初 Zcash 被 Opus 模型發現漏洞，Zcash 一天內暴跌 30%，雖然後來有回升。但如果這種事發生在比特幣，對大家都很糟。And I am sort of like one of those few people who are losing sleep, where most of the Bitcoiners are not that worried about it. Long story short, we got access to Mitos when I was still private. We actually ran the frontier models on Bitcoin Core, and thankfully, Bitcoin Core actually came out to be clean. If that didn't happen, like remember the Zcash bug that was discovered with Opus, and Opus is actually not even that advanced of a model. And Zcash dropped like 30% in one day and then recovered. Something like that happening to Bitcoin is bad for everybody.

3:16接下來的問題是，前沿 AI 模型一直在進步，所以你不能只用一次模型掃描程式碼就沒事了，必須持續做這件事。現在我們有比較有組織地處理這件事。我不方便說公司名字，但現在大概有兩三家公司有存取所有前沿模型的權限，會在新模型出來時主動用來檢查 Bitcoin Core。The next thing that we had to do was frontier models, they keep improving all the time. So it doesn't matter that you ran the codebase once on a specific model. You have to do it all the time. So now we have gotten our act together a little bit. I won't name the companies, but there are basically two, three companies that have access to all of the frontier models, and they're actively running Bitcoin Core against those models when that comes up.

3:44有了這些背景，大家可以想像我們距離比特幣出事有多近，整個產業都會受到波及。現在我們來談談比特幣的前線，尤其是在 AI 崛起的時代。OpenAI 昨天才剛釋出一堆數學題，世界已經變了，我們必須重新評估比特幣的前線長什麼樣子，以及我們要怎麼應對。So with that background in mind, that how close we were in terms of something happening to Bitcoin and us as an industry actually taking a collective hit on it, let's talk about. The frontier of Bitcoin, especially in the light of AI. OpenAI just dropped a bunch of, like, math problems literally yesterday. So the world has changed, and we have to evaluate what the frontier of Bitcoin looks like and what are we going to do about it.

4:12比特幣資本市場的機會

4:12我今天要談三個重點：第一，比特幣資本市場，為什麼鏈上比特幣資本市場很重要？第二，隱私，為什麼比特幣的隱私性越來越重要？第三，就是最大的大象，比特幣面臨的後量子威脅。先說現況，比特幣現在明顯是價值儲存工具，很多機構和大戶都接受比特幣並持有它。但你看那個小數字，實際上不到 0.5% 的 BTC 被積極運用，其餘沒有產生收益，什麼都沒做，就只是放著。So I'm going to basically talk about three things. One is Bitcoin capital markets. Why are on-chain Bitcoin capital markets important? I'm going to talk about privacy, why privacy becomes more important for Bitcoin, and the biggest elephant in the room, which is the post-quantum threat that we have for Bitcoin. So let's start over. Here's the situation with Bitcoin right now. It is clearly a store of value. A lot of institutions and large players have sort of like accepted Bitcoin. And they're holding Bitcoin. But look at the small number over there. Like less than 0.5% of BTC is actually actively deployed anywhere, right? It's not earning any yield. It's not doing anything. It's basically just sitting there.

5:01這其實是個機會。如果你是開發者或建設者，看到一個市值約 1.5 兆美元的資產，絕大多數都沒被運用，這代表有很大的機會。這個機會就是讓比特幣資本能被運用。很多人把比特幣拿來跟黃金比較，說它是數位黃金，未來市值會到黃金的 10%、40%、50%，隨你怎麼預測。但我認為，如果比特幣能產生收益、有活躍的資本市場，它其實可以比黃金還大，因為黃金沒有收益。And that's actually an opportunity. If you're a developer, if you're a builder, and you see an asset class, which is around $1.5 trillion, but the bulk of it is actually not doing anything. That means there's a large opportunity here. What's the opportunity? It's to deploy Bitcoin capital. A lot of people talk about Bitcoin and comparison to gold, that it's digital gold. At some point, you know, we're going to be 10% of gold market cap or 40%, 50%. Whatever your Bitcoin price target is, what I think is if Bitcoin actually has a yield and there are active capital markets, Bitcoin can actually be bigger than gold because gold doesn't have any income.

5:44所以比特幣要超越黃金、成為更大的資產，關鍵就是讓它能產生收益。因為有收益的資產才能成為金融市場的基礎，整個金融市場都能圍繞它建立。那要怎麼做到？有兩件事。大多數用過 Ethereum、Solana 或其他區塊鏈的人都知道質押，可以鎖定資產賺收益。上一輪牛市，很多機構和公有財庫、ETF 都進來持有比特幣。最大差別是，像 Saylor 的 MicroStrategy 或 BlackRock 的比特幣 ETF，跟以太坊或 Solana 的 ETF 不一樣，比特幣目前沒辦法賺收益。So the real opportunity for Bitcoin to actually flipping gold and becoming a much bigger asset is if we can figure out. How Bitcoin can be income generating, because a yield-bearing asset actually becomes a foundation of financial markets, and you can actually build entire financial markets around it. So how does that happen? There are two things. Most people who have used Ethereum, Solana, or any other blockchain, they're used to staking. They know that they can lock their asset. And they can start getting a yield on it. Even if you look at the last cycle, what happened was a lot of large institutions and public treasury companies or large ETFs, they came in and now they have Bitcoin. The biggest difference between a large player like Saylor with Strategy or BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF versus the Ethereum ETFs or Solana ETFs is Bitcoin people can't earn any income on their BTC right now, right?

6:48所以誰能解決比特幣的質押、原生收益，誰就會很厲害。第二個重點是信貸。大家不想賣比特幣，不想被課稅，而且大多數人都是長期持有者。他們想用比特幣當抵押品借錢。這兩件事如果做對了，比特幣資本市場就能啟動。你拿傳統市場來比，有美元、有資本市場的基礎設施，資產才會有生產力。我們需要比特幣也有這一套，這就是前線之一，我們也正在努力。So whoever figures out any form, any variation of staking, like native, native yield for Bitcoin is going to be a big, big deal. And the second thing is credit. People don't want to sell their Bitcoin. They want to hold it. They don't want to get a tax hit. And they are long-term holders for Bitcoin generally across the board. And what they do want to do is use Bitcoin as collateral and take loans against it. Those are the two big things that if we get that right, we can actually start Bitcoin capital markets. If you compare that to normal markets, you have money, you have the dollars, and then you have the rails and the capital markets around it. Which leads to a productive asset. And we need the same thing for Bitcoin, which is one of the frontiers, and we are actually doing a bunch of work on it.

7:42比特幣的隱私與後量子威脅

7:42第二個前線是隱私。你們可能看過 Zcash，很多人在做這塊。我跟 Zooko 認識很久，也支持 Zcash。但有了 Zcash 並不代表比特幣不需要隱私，尤其現在有 AI，任何人都能把比特幣鏈上的公開資料跑一遍，馬上知道誰在做什麼。這點現在連機構也開始意識到。我們大概不會看到比特幣 L1 有隱私功能，應該會在比特幣之上加一層，像是隱私光譜上 Zcash 是最強那一端，我們可以做一些實用的隱私或機構級隱私，透過不同層次提供 BTC 隱私。The second frontier is privacy. You guys might have seen Zcash, a lot of people working on it. I've known Zooko for a while. I'm a supporter of Zcash. But having Zcash doesn't mean we don't need Privacy or some form of privacy on Bitcoin. Especially now that we have AI, it is extremely easy for anyone to just run all the data that is public on the Bitcoin chain and figure out who's doing what. And I think this is something that institutions are now becoming more aware of. We are likely not going to see privacy on the Bitcoin L1. So it's likely going to happen as another layer on top of Bitcoin, which is, if this is a spectrum and Zcash is on one end of this spectrum in terms of strong privacy, I think what we can do is we can offer some sort of practical privacy or institutional privacy with different sort of like layers. For BTC.

8:42這會是比特幣很重要的前線，因為 Zcash 其實是另一種有特定屬性的價值儲存工具，而比特幣目前沒有這些屬性。任何能讓 BTC 變成有隱私的努力，未來都會非常有價值。第三個前線，就是後量子。進入後量子主題前，我想再連回前面 Mythos 的故事。其實我認為，其他鏈就算升級到後量子也沒用，如果比特幣沒升級，有人偷走 Satoshi 的幣或大量比特幣，整個產業都會受害。And it's going to be a big frontier for Bitcoin because Zcash is a potential alternate store of value that has certain properties that Bitcoin currently doesn't have. And anyone who does a bunch of work on Bitcoin actually enables private BTC, I think is going to be a very, very valuable thing to do. The third frontier is actually post-quantum. Before I get into post-quantum, I would want to link this back to the earlier mythos story that I was talking about. Basically, it doesn't matter, in my view, if other blockchains figure out a post-quantum upgrade. Because if Bitcoin doesn't figure it out, and someone actually steals Satoshi's coins or other large amounts of Bitcoin, it hits all of us.

9:35這不是比特幣自己的問題，是整個產業的問題，我們必須一起解決。比特幣的問題比其他鏈更嚴重，因為比特幣非常去中心化，開發有很多政治角力，要取得社群共識很難。比特幣做任何升級都很慢，像 SegWit 或 Taproot 都要兩年以上。如果我們認為 2030 年前要做好量子防護，比特幣平均一個小升級都要兩年，資產搬移也要兩年，所以如果現在不開始準備，已經進入黃紅燈區了。It hits the entire industry. So Bitcoin's post-quantum upgrade is not a Bitcoin problem. It is our problem, collectively as an industry, and we'll need to figure out a solution for it. Bitcoin's problem is actually worse than other chains, because Bitcoin is very decentralized. There are all sorts of politics around Bitcoin development. It's hard to get community consensus around what the upgrade should look like. And what it makes especially challenging is that Bitcoin takes a very, very long time for doing any upgrade. If we think quantum computers are going, or we need to be quantum ready by 2030, Bitcoin takes on average two years plus to do even a small upgrade. When they did the SegWit upgrade or the Taproot upgrade, it takes like two years. Then Bitcoin's capacity is so limited, it's going to take something like two years to even move the assets. So imagine two years for an upgrade, two years to move the assets, which means that if we are not getting our act together right now, We're already entering a yellow slash red zone for Bitcoin's quantum upgrade right now.

10:49多數人沒意識到，現在我們努力讓比特幣升級到後量子，但一旦升級，比特幣的容量會被砍掉 97%，因為新簽章太大，根本沒辦法在比特幣主鏈上交易。所以我們不只需要量子升級，還需要另一層讓大部分比特幣交易在後量子世界中進行，而且這些方案都要由比特幣的算力保護，資本市場經濟要在 BTC 上運作，並且要去中心化，大家要能自主管理私鑰、鏈上使用。One thing that most people don't realize, this is right now we're trying to get Bitcoin to upgrade. We're trying to reach post-quantum. As soon as we do the upgrade, Bitcoin's capacity is going to get slashed by up to 97%. So Bitcoin, because those signatures are so big, right? So if signatures are really, really big, you can't transact on Bitcoin anymore. So not only we need a quantum upgrade, we also need another layer on which most of the Bitcoin transactions would happen in a post-quantum world. And all of this should happen, all these solutions should be secured by Bitcoin, by Bitcoin's hash power. All the economy of the Bitcoin capital markets should run in BTC, and it should be decentralized. People should be owners of their own keys and should be able to use it on-chain in a fully decentralized ways.

11:49Stacks 的角色與比特幣未來展望

11:49這些原則我們都很重視。那現在有哪些地方已經在做？Stacks 是目前最大的比特幣專案。你可以把它想成，比特幣本身很老、很難改變，Stacks 則是 BTC 的新基礎設施，讓比特幣更便宜、更快、更可程式化，也能更快推動像 stealth address、後量子等升級，甚至影響 Bitcoin Core 的開發，確保我們需要的支援能到位。These are some of the principles that we're looking at. Where is this already happening? Stacks is the largest Bitcoin project out there. Think of this as Bitcoin is old and clunky. It's very, very hard to change it. And Stacks is a new rails for BTC, where Bitcoin can be cheaper, faster, programmable, and we can actually move much faster to do an upgrade for stealth addresses, to do an upgrade for post-quantum, and even try to influence Bitcoin core development as well. To make sure that whatever support we need from Bitcoin Core can actually be there.

12:23在比特幣資本市場這塊，我們重點是讓 BTC 能產生收益。你現在可以用自主管理的方式鎖定比特幣，賺 3% 的 BTC 收益。這個產品很新，才剛推出幾週，已經看到非常瘋狂的需求。因為這些大型財庫、ETF，手上有數十億美元的比特幣，卻沒辦法賺收益。這對比特幣來說是健康的，因為這是大家開始把資本真正部署到鏈上的第一步。So for Bitcoin capital markets, one of our focus has been enabling BTC yield. So you can actually lock your Bitcoin in a self-custodial way and earn a 3% yield on BTC. And this product is very recent. It actually just came out in the last couple of weeks. And we've been seeing an insane interest on it. Because remember, all of these large treasury companies, ETFs, they're sitting on billions and billions and billions of Bitcoin and no real way of earning any income. And that's a healthy thing for Bitcoin because it's the first signs of people actually deploying their capital on-chain, and once capital starts flowing,

13:01當資本開始流動，就會有第二層效應，像是大家會想做資金循環、提高收益，或用同一筆抵押品借穩定幣。你在 Ethereum、Solana 上看到的鏈上活動，現在終於要發生在比特幣上，我們對此非常興奮。You start seeing second order effects of it, because now people might want to do looping around this and boost their yield. They might want to use the same collateral and take stablecoin loans. The kind of on-chain activity that you've been seeing on Ethereum and Solana, it's finally coming to Bitcoin, and we're super excited about that.

13:26總結一下，我認為比特幣的前線就是鏈上資本市場、隱私和後量子。Stacks 在這三個領域都有投入。目前我們重點在鏈上資本市場，未來規劃也會大量投入隱私和後量子。隨著 AI 模型進步，這一切都會加速發生，這不是兩三年後才要解決的問題，而是現在、此刻就要面對的前線。謝謝大家。So to recap, The frontier of Bitcoin, in my view, is on-chain capital markets, it's privacy, and it's post-quantum. And Stacks is doing work on all of these. Right now, we're focused on on-chain capital markets, and in our roadmap, we're doing a ton of work on privacy and post-quantum as well. And with AI models, All of this actually accelerates very, very quickly. This is not something that we can just sit on that, yes, let's wait for the next two, three years and figure out what is going to be Bitcoin's post-quantum solution or what is going to be Bitcoin's privacy solution. This is a today and a now problem, and we are at the frontier of it. Thank you. Thank you very much.