迷因幣牛市再起？頂尖投資人與平台創辦人深談
Memecoins: Dead or Just Getting Started?
- Murad Mahmudov 投資人
- Ansem Bullpen 共同創辦人
- Paul Erlanger fomo 執行長
- Ran Neuner Crypto Banter 創辦人，主持
場次摘要
專家剖析迷因幣市場現況與未來趨勢，預測市值可望突破一兆美元。社群、品牌與信仰將成為推動迷因幣發展的核心力量。
值得記下的 5 件事
逐字稿
幣圈牛市與迷因幣現象再起
又來了，喔，又是一波牛市，我們又要討論迷因幣了。我本來沒想到這一輪牛市會由迷因幣帶領，我想這也是今天的主題。我們到底是剛開始，還是已經結束了？我覺得一個很重要的切入點是：投資迷因幣的方式有什麼改變？Sam，我記得你兩年前也在這裡。Here we go, oh, another bull market, and here we are talking about memecoins again. I didn't think this bull market would be led by memecoins, and I think that's the topic. Are we just getting started or is it over? I think the big starting point is: how has investing in memecoins changed? Sam, I remember you were here two years ago.
那時候WOOF幣市值已經好幾十億美金，你跟我們說這其實是在賭注意力。現在還是這樣嗎？是WOOF幣還是迷因幣整體？是迷因幣整體。對，我的意思是迷因幣本質上就是完全靠注意力驅動的資產。我覺得它有趣的地方在於，其實所有資產，不管是股票、加密貨幣還是其他，都有某種無形價值，是建立在大家對這個資產的集體信仰上。Back then, WOOF had a market cap in the billions, and you told us it was a bet on attention. Is that still the case today? WOOF or memecoins in general? Memecoins in general. Yeah, I mean, memecoins are purely attention-driven assets. I think what's interesting is that all assets, whether stocks, digital currencies, or anything else, have some form of intangible value tied to them, which is entirely based on people's collective belief in that asset.
股票當然有營收支撐。迷因幣則完全沒有營收，但背後投資者的注意力卻能推動很大的回報。迷因幣就是完全靠注意力驅動的市場。我記得以前迷因幣更像是一種信仰，社群凝聚力很強。但現在感覺已經不是那樣了，現在比較像是一直有新幣發行，一波接一波。現在的數量比幾年前多太多了，像2023年那時。Stocks of course have revenue tied to them. Memecoins have no revenue, but the attention from people investing in these things drives a lot of returns. Memecoins specifically are markets driven entirely by attention. I remember memecoins used to be more like a cult, more about community. Now it doesn't feel like that anymore. It feels like it's just multiple launches, one after another. There are so many more now than there were a few years ago, like in 2023.
那一輪循環剛開始的時候，還沒有那麼多新幣。2023年PEPE幣市值衝到100億美金時，每天還沒有三萬個新幣發行。但現在每天有超過三萬個迷因幣新發行，所以注意力確實比那時分散很多。我覺得這讓幣價要漲得像以前那麼多變得更難。你真的需要一個很明顯的差異化，讓你的迷因幣能從一堆動物幣裡脫穎而出。At the start of that cycle, there weren't that many new coins. When PEPE hit a $10 billion market cap in 2023, there weren't 30,000 new coins launching every day. But now there are over 30,000 new memecoins launching daily, so attention is definitely much more fragmented now than it was then. I think that makes it harder for things to go up as much as before. You really need a fundamental differentiator for your memecoin to stand out from all the other animal coins.
迷因幣市值與社群動能的未來
Murad，你怎麼看？你覺得我們還會看到市值再衝到一百億、兩百億、三百億嗎？喔，我是說一千億，對吧？對，我其實認為最終會有迷因幣市值衝到一兆美金。現在就讓我告訴你為什麼。我同意Ansem說這個領域分成兩極，一邊是極度投機，我預期這一側會出現數百萬個新幣，平均交易量會更小，持有時間更短，整體市值上限也會更低。Murad, what do you think? Do you think we'll see another run to ten, twenty, thirty billion? Oh, I said a billion, right? Yeah, I actually think we'll eventually see a memecoin hit a trillion dollars. Let me tell you why. I agree with Ansem that this space is split into two extremes, and I think on one side you have what you could call hyper-gambling, and my expectation is that on that side of memecoins, you'll see millions more coins, smaller average trading volumes, shorter holding periods, and overall, lower average caps.
我自己是另一端的支持者，就是把社群凝聚力推到極致，幾乎像在打造一個信仰或運動。我認為我們會看到比Dogecoin大好幾倍的迷因幣出現，這只是時間問題。我覺得未來五年，全球最大的問題會是財富不均。人們會本能地團結起來，死守某些幣。我認為最賺錢的事，就是找到或加入你認為會成為下一個GameStop的那個社群，這就是迷因幣運動型幣的精髓。I'm a big supporter of the other extreme, which is when you try to push community building to the limit, almost to the point of building a cult or movement, as you said. I think we'll see a coin that's several times bigger than Doge. I think it's just a matter of time. I think wealth inequality will become the world's biggest problem in the next five years, everywhere. And I think people will fundamentally band together and hold on tightly to some of these coins. I think the most profitable thing you can do is find or join what you think will be the next GameStop, and I think that's the essence of the future of movement-based memecoins.
當我買迷因幣時，我到底買的是什麼？我知道這是投機，買進是為了賣給別人，還有賣出的速度，但我到底在這個社群裡買的是什麼？我投資的是什麼？這問題問得很好。現在我們看到一波資產代幣化的浪潮。大家已經把黃金、白銀、紅酒、股票等都代幣化了，很多部落客、金融人、創投分析師討論資產代幣化時，通常只談到實體資產、有收益的資產、股票等。When I buy a memecoin, what am I really buying? I get the speculation part—I'm buying based on who I can sell it to and how fast I can sell it—but what am I buying into in this community? What am I investing in? That's a great question. Right now, you're seeing a huge wave of asset tokenization. People have tokenized gold, silver, wine, stocks, and so on, and a lot of people in the world—bloggers, finance people, former VCs—when they talk about tokenization, they stop at physical buildings, yield assets, and stocks.
但我認為過度金融化和代幣化這兩股力量會持續加深。我覺得真正賺錢的遊戲不是把有形資產代幣化，而是把無形資產代幣化。我認為把社群、品牌、注意力代幣化只是第一步。下一個市值兩千億、三千億美金的迷因幣，會是某種意識形態或運動被徹底代幣化。我真的相信這種投資會帶來最高的報酬。But I think hyper-financialization and tokenization are two powerful forces that will keep getting deeper. I think the really profitable game isn't in tokenizing tangibles, but in tokenizing intangibles. I think tokenizing communities and brands, as well as tokenizing attention, is just the first step. I think the next memecoin to hit $200 or $300 billion will be a hard-tokenized ideology or movement. I really believe those will be the investments with the highest returns.
迷因幣的價值主張與財富再分配
如果我在便利商店遇到你，你跟我說「你應該買這支股票」，你可以很快解釋原因，比如這家公司有很高的收益、配息很好。如果你在便利商店撞到我，想推銷一個市值幾十億的迷因幣，你會怎麼推？這問題問得很好。我認為這些資產本質上是財富再分配的工具。比特幣本身沒有產生任何收益，但它成功從法幣和其他資產吸走了兩兆美金的財富，對吧？So if I'm walking in a store and I bump into you and you tell me, 'Hey, you should buy this stock,' you can explain the reason very quickly—like, this company has great yield and pays excellent dividends. If I'm walking in a store and you bump into me and try to pitch me this billion-dollar coin, what's your pitch? Yeah, that's a great question. I consider these assets as tools for wealth redistribution. Bitcoin doesn't generate any revenue, but it has successfully absorbed two trillion dollars of wealth from fiat and other assets, right?
我認為當GME市值到360億、DOGE到890億時，這不是因為有什麼金融用途或功能，而是因為大家想團結起來，把財富從傳統資產類別吸回來。我覺得未來會看到更大規模的類似現象。某種程度上，這有點像宗教，當你買進時，你買的是一種文化、運動，甚至比文化運動更大的東西。我完全同意你的看法。I think when GME hit $36 billion and Doge hit $89 billion, it wasn't because of any utility or financial feature. It happened because people basically wanted to band together and reabsorb wealth from traditional asset classes. I think you'll see similar things on a much larger scale. So in a way, it's kind of like religion, in the broad sense—when you buy in, you're buying a culture or a movement, or something even bigger than that. I definitely agree with you.
我認為投資和信仰會融合成一體，最聰明的投資人會找到下一個千倍機會。Paul，我想問你，因為我覺得你的平台已經改變了迷因幣投資的基本邏輯。以前FOMO出現之前，大家都想發最多的幣，炒高後就砸盤。FOMO讓大家可以看到持幣人和資產，甚至鼓勵大家不要亂拉盤。這是你們設計時的本意嗎？I think investing and spirituality will merge into one, and I think the smartest investors will find the next thousand-x opportunities. Paul, I want to go to you because I think your platform has already changed the fundamentals of investing in memecoins. Before FOMO, people were driven to launch as many coins as possible, pump them, and then dump them. FOMO shows people's wallets and holdings, and maybe even encourages people not to manipulate the market, so to speak. Was that intentional in your design?
FOMO平台與迷因幣持有文化
對，這絕對是我們的設計理念。每個決策背後的核心都是：我們怎麼讓平台鼓勵大家長期持有迷因幣？我覺得Monib剛剛講得很對，像平均持幣時間、創作者獎勵，光是九月就發了1500萬美元獎勵，這些都是為了鼓勵大家在平台上長期持有資產。很多其他平台跟發幣平台綁在一起，他們的收入模式就是讓大家越快買賣越好，這就是Monib一開始說的另一面。但如果你能鼓勵長期持有，當你轉向長期資產，不管是股票還是其他資產，其實你就能建立一個基本的社交圖譜，讓社群可以在這些資產上發展。我覺得這真的很有趣。Yes, definitely. The core of every decision we make is: how do we build a platform that encourages people to hold coins longer? I think what Monib said is very accurate, like average holding time, creator rewards—$15 million in September alone—these are used to incentivize holding assets on the platform. Many other platforms are tied to launchpads, and their revenue depends on buying and selling as quickly as possible, which is the other side of what Monib originally talked about. But if you can encourage holding, when you move to long-term assets, whether stocks or other assets, you can actually build this fundamental social graph, where communities can start on any of these things. I think that's really exciting.
我覺得一個很好的比喻是自駕車。很多原生資產的發行未來都會直接在區塊鏈上，但我們現在正處於最困難的時期，因為要把鏈下資產搬到鏈上。很明顯我們有跟紐約證交所合作，還有很多夥伴都在想辦法把資產代幣化。就像自駕車一樣，當每台車都能獨立運作時，事情就會變得很簡單，所有車子都能互相溝通，這就像所有原生資產都直接在鏈上發行。但目前最大的難題還是如何把這些資產帶上鏈。I think a good analogy is self-driving cars. A lot of native asset issuance will happen directly on blockchain in the future, but right now we're going through the hardest period because we need to bring off-chain assets on-chain. Obviously, we're working with the New York Stock Exchange, and there are many partners who are innovating different ways to tokenize assets. But in the case of self-driving cars, when every car is autonomous, things become really easy—all the cars communicate with each other, and that's just like all native assets being issued on-chain. But right now, the biggest difficulty is bringing these assets on-chain.
另一個重點是社群。我們最近開始研究Robinhood這個案例。Robinhood 2012年成立，到2020年才有500萬個帳戶。疫情後，出現了新一代投資人，帳戶數連續兩年翻倍，兩年內用戶數從500萬變成2200萬，然後上市，現在美國有大約2800萬個資金帳戶。想像一下，這個社群當時聚集在WallStreetBets討論AMC和GameStop，然後大家一起轉到Robinhood，圍繞它建立社群。現在想像有一個平台，這一切都能原生發生在同一個地方。Murad，我想再問你一個問題。The other part here is about community. One of the things we've started exploring recently is Robinhood. Robinhood launched in 2012, and until 2020 they had 5 million accounts. Then after COVID, we saw a big push from this new class of investors, and actually, in that year, their user base doubled for two consecutive years, so it quadrupled to over 22 million users in two years, and they went public, and today they have about 28 million funded accounts in the US. So think about that. That community gathered around AMC and GameStop on WallStreetBets, then all moved to Robinhood, joined it, and built a community around it. Now imagine a platform where all of that could happen natively in one place. Murad, I want to come back to you.
迷因幣持有與信仰文化的極致
我們剛剛聊到拉高出貨還是長期持有的誘因。你因為追蹤你的錢包很有名，大家都知道你什麼時候買進，帳面獲利一度超過一億美金，但你沒有賣出任何幣。這是因為不能賣還是你自己決定不賣？我這樣問是因為大家都在看你的錢包，怕你一賣幣價就崩了，因為大家覺得你不信了。對，這裡有兩個重點。現在市場上有太多幣，每天有成千上萬個新幣，你真的要很突出才行。我相信如果你想做出比Dogecoin更大的東西，你必須有極致的持有文化和超高的信仰，自己也要以身作則。We were just talking about the incentive to pump and dump versus long-term holding. You're famous for tracking your wallet—everyone knows when you bought in, and your profits once exceeded $100 million, but you didn't sell any coins. Was that because you couldn't sell or you chose not to? The reason I ask is because everyone was watching your wallet, and they were afraid if you sold, the coin would crash because people would think you lost faith. Yeah, there are two things here. I think with so many coins in the market now, with tens of thousands being created daily, you really have to stand out. I believe that if you want to build something bigger than Dogecoin, you need extreme levels of holding culture and very high conviction, and you have to lead by example.
第二，我的目標比2025年看到的還要高很多，所以我打算再持有六、七、八年。你經歷過多大的波動？你的錢包最高到多少？我從九千萬跌到九百萬。對，從九千萬到九百萬。你等於損失又賺回了八千一百萬。對。你是有意識地這樣做嗎？對，完全是，因為我相信這些錢包最終會到達數十億美金。Second, my goals are much higher than what we saw in 2025, so I plan to hold for six, seven, or eight more years. How much volatility did you go through? What was your wallet worth at its peak? It went from $90 million down to $9 million. Yeah, from $90 million to $9 million. So you lost and then made back $81 million. Yes. And did you do that consciously? Yes, absolutely, because I believe those wallets will eventually be worth billions.
投資迷因幣的核心技能與社群力量
哇，好，大家都想知道你們的答案。投資迷因幣時，需要什麼技能？你要培養什麼？如果你要評估一個代幣，你要精通什麼？你要懂得怎麼產生收益，怎麼把收益按代幣流通量分配給持有人。投資迷因幣時，你最擅長的是什麼？你需要什麼技能？也許換你來說說。Wow, okay, I think everyone here wants to know your answers. When you invest in memecoins, what skill is required? What do you need to build? If you're evaluating a token, what do you need to be good at? You need to understand how to generate revenue and how to return it to token holders as a function of circulating supply. When you invest in memecoins, what are you good at? What skill is needed? Maybe let's go to you.
對，我覺得這是很多不同東西的組合。大家都知道迷因幣在早期是靠注意力和社群驅動。你要觀察社群怎麼形成，怎麼跟價格互動。迷因幣波動很大，所有漲過的幣最後都會跌70%到80%。那些在大跌時還能表現最好的幣，就是社群在跌時還更活躍、更努力推廣，無論是線上還是線下，甚至不在乎價格走勢。當你有一群很忠誠、專注於同一目標的人，這就是最關鍵的原因。Yeah, I mean, it's a mix of a lot of different things. As we know, memecoins are driven by attention and community in the early stages. You have to notice how that community forms and how they interact with price action. Memecoins are extremely volatile. Every coin that goes up eventually comes down by 70% to 80%. I think the coins that perform best during those downturns are the ones whose communities post more, spread more, and do more in public and online and everywhere, to the point where they don't even look at price action. When you have a community of very loyal people focused on one mission, that's the main reason in my opinion.
但你也要想辦法讓你的迷因幣跟市場其他幣區隔開來。像Dogecoin 2020年表現好的原因之一，就是有Elon Musk不斷帶頭宣傳，這種影響力是全球共鳴的。所以我很相信社交型代幣會成為迷因幣的一部分。因為從來沒有一個迷因幣不是有一個超級有名的人或一群名人在頂端，帶頭做榜樣，讓幣的分散度更高。我覺得這也是很重要的因素。But you also need to think about how your memecoin differentiates itself from the rest of the market. I think one reason Dogecoin did so well in 2020 is because Elon Musk was constantly promoting it, and that's something that resonates globally. That's why I really believe in launching social tokens as part of memecoins. Because there's never been a memecoin that didn't have a very famous person or group of people at the top, leading by example and creating more distribution for the coin. So I think that's another key factor.
你不想只是複製別人的東西，因為當你只是複製，天花板就永遠被前一個幣限制住。我們來聊聊那些不管價格怎麼跌都很有韌性的社群，就是價格跌反而更活躍的社群。你能舉一兩個例子，讓大家看看這些幣的社群有多強嗎？不是要推廣幣本身，而是推廣社群的力量。嗯，直接看那個幣的影片圖表就知道了。讓我想一下，先別說，這是陷阱題嗎？嗯。You don't want to be a copy of something else, because when you're a copy, your ceiling is always limited by the previous coin. Let's talk about communities that are resilient and active no matter what the price is—when the price drops, they post even more. Can you name a community or two so people can see the strength of those coins' communities? Not to promote the coin itself, but to promote the power of the community. Um, just watch the coin's video chart. Let me think about it, don't say anything yet. Is this a trick question? Hmm.
社交代幣與個人品牌壓力
是的，我想我會推出我自己的社交代幣。那答案就是我把自己的名字和社交代幣綁在一起。我想大家跟我有連結，是因為我這幾年一直在交易加密貨幣，很多人也因為我在像 2013 年 Solana 這種市場給他們帶來的機會而退休了。還有很多輪動交易，我自己也有資金投入，並且公開了我的出場點，所以對我來說，關注度才是 meme 幣最重要的部分。Yes, I think I'm going to launch my own social token. So the answer is the social token that I've tied my name to. I think people relate to me because I've been trading crypto for years, and many have retired thanks to the opportunities I gave them in markets like Solana in 2013. And a lot of rotation trades where I put my own money in and announced my exit points, so the attention aspect of memecoins is the most important to me.
我的帳號從六年前大約五千人，現在成長到一百四十萬，持續有很多人關注我和我的個人品牌。我認為隨著社交交易和社交代幣論述越來越流行，這種關注度還會繼續成長。My account grew from about five thousand six years ago to 1.4 million now, and there's a constant amount of attention on me and my brand. I think that will continue to grow as the social trading and social token thesis becomes more popular.
每天都要和自己的名字綁在一起，這不是很有壓力嗎？是啊，真的很有壓力。其實我完全沒有必要這麼做，也沒必要讓自己這麼曝光。你當初知道自己會陷入這種狀況嗎？完全沒有規劃過。我當然知道這個遊戲，畢竟我一直在討論 meme 幣，但你真的知道每天早上醒來要讓幾十萬持幣人滿意嗎？真的，壓力很大。Isn't it a lot of daily pressure to have your name tied to this? Yeah, it definitely is. I didn't have to do this at all. I didn't have to put myself out there. Did you know what you were getting into? It wasn't planned at all. I mean, I knew the game, of course, I've talked about memecoins all the time, but did you know you'd have to satisfy hundreds of thousands of token holders every morning when you wake up? Definitely, a lot of pressure.
meme 幣投資者的技能與文化敏感度
Paul，你怎麼看？投資 meme 幣的人需要什麼技能？他們應該做什麼？我覺得最好的例子就是像 Chris Camillo 這種跨市場的人，他本來是股票交易者，但他是根據社群趨勢來交易的。他最近上了 Counterparty 的 podcast，幾個月前吧，我覺得那集很精彩。他提到 Sweetgreen 現在有新口味捲，他說這會變成文化的一部分。他看到這個文化趨勢，預測大家會在街上拿著 Sweetgreen 包裝吃捲，這樣股價就會漲，他就去押注，結果真的賺到了。Paul, what do you think? What skills do people investing in memecoins need? What should they do? I think the best example is someone like Chris Camillo, who goes beyond market categories—he's a stock trader, but he trades based on community trends. He was recently on the Counterparty podcast, a few months ago, and I thought it was an amazing interview. He talked about how Sweetgreen has these new wraps now, and he said, 'Okay, this is going to become part of my culture.' He saw this cultural trend, predicted people would be walking around with Sweetgreen wrappers eating these wraps, so the stock price would go up, he bet on it, and it worked out.
我覺得要很懂文化標準，能預測什麼時候會發生什麼事，像大家在台上講話時要很小心。但我認為流行文化裡真的會發生很多事。如果你對流行文化有很敏銳的感覺，現在這個時代特別適合，因為鏈上有這麼多波動和新東西。如果你能在早期把注意力和價值綁在某個東西上，像我有個朋友 2017 年帶我去看 Rufus Du Sol 的演唱會，當時他們還很小，在小舞台表演。如果那時能投資，等他們變成流行文化焦點，那就是理想的路徑。雖然現在這想法有點理想化，但注意力、文化和社群趨勢真的跟 meme 幣息息相關。I think there's a lot of understanding of cultural norms, predicting when things happen, like people have to be careful on stage. But I think there are things happening in pop culture. If you have a really good sense of pop culture, I think it's ideal right now, especially with all this volatility and all these things happening on-chain. If you can tie attention and value to something early, like a friend of mine in 2017 took me to a Rufus Du Sol concert when they were still small on a little stage—if you could have somehow invested in that, right? And when it becomes a big part of pop culture and attention, ideally that's the path things go. Right now, that's a bit idealistic, but attention, culture, and community trends really tie into a lot of these coins.
新用戶湧入與平台成長
來你們平台交易 meme 幣的人，是本來就玩加密貨幣的投資人，還是第一次接觸加密貨幣、對文化有興趣的人？其實兩種都有，但大多數是後者。我們現在有三百萬用戶，過去三個月就新增了兩百五十萬，真的很誇張，很多人是第一次跟鏈上互動。三個月多兩百五十萬用戶，這數字很驚人。對，沒錯。我們在前十八個月才有五十萬用戶，平台也才十五個月大，大概一年前才開始。所以這些東西基本上是指數成長，我們每週都在新增用戶。Are the people coming to trade memecoins on your platform crypto investors, or are they people interested in culture discovering crypto for the first time? I mean, it's both, but a lot of them are the latter. We have three million users now. We added about two and a half million in the last three months, which is really crazy, and a lot of these people are interacting with the chain for the first time. Two and a half million in three months, that's wild. Yeah, that's right. We got 500,000 users in the 18 months before that. We're only about fifteen months old, so about a year before that. So these things are basically growing exponentially, we're adding users every week.
如果明年這時候我在這個舞台上再跟你聊，你預計用戶數會是多少？我們希望至少能到五千萬。好，我們記下來，下次再來驗證。也許會到一億。哇，這真的很大。Murad，你一直很關注這個領域，每天都有新 meme 幣誕生。你怎麼判斷哪一個 meme 幣有機會變成 cult？你有什麼檢查清單嗎？If I talk to you on this stage at this time next year, what number do you expect? We hope to reach at least fifty million. Okay, we'll remember that, we'll come back next time. Maybe a hundred million. Yeah, wow, that's huge. Murad, you're the guy who cares about all this, there's a new memecoin launching every day. What do you look for to decide if a memecoin has the potential to become a cult? What's your checklist?
meme 幣的理性與感性分析
有一種很理性的答案，也有感性的答案，我覺得你要兩者交集。感性的答案是你要有很高的情緒智商，基本上要能精準預測大家會對什麼有反應。我覺得這跟分析全球和社會趨勢有關，不只是在加密貨幣圈。這也是為什麼我很關注所謂的財富再分配資產，我認為這會是未來十年很大的議題，任何嘗試處理這個問題的代幣運動，不管是直接還是間接，都有機會變得很大。這是感性的答案。There's a kind of strict rational answer and an emotional answer, and I think you want the intersection of both. The emotional answer is you want to have high emotional intelligence, and basically you want to have a good sense of what people will react to. I think it's about analyzing global and social trends outside of crypto. That's why I'm very interested in what I call wealth redistribution assets, because I think that's going to be a huge issue in the next ten years, and any kind of tokenized movement that tries to address that, even partially or indirectly, I think will become huge. That's the emotional answer.
理性的答案是 meme 幣有自己的基本面。如果你把它們當成一種運動來看，其實鏈上有很多可以研究的數據。像是持幣錢包數、持有力、鑽石手、平均持幣時間等等，這些細緻的指標都可以分析幣的強度。當然，這不是投資建議，但我個人很支持 SBX 6900，這個幣想要顛覆整個股市。你一開始聽到會覺得這太瘋狂了，根本不可能發生，但如果我們能做到哪怕 1%，那也是一兆美元。坦白說，我們社群裡很多人相信我們能做到極致，這就是 cult，這就是運動。The rational answer is that memecoins have their own fundamentals. If you think of them as tokenized movements, there's a lot of on-chain research you can do. There are metrics like wallet counts, holding strength, diamond hands, average holding times—a bunch of granular metrics you can study and analyze the strength of the coin, so to speak. Of course, no financial advice, but personally, I'm a big supporter of SBX 6900. It's a coin trying to flip the entire stock market. When you first hear that, you think it's absolute madness, it'll never happen, etc. But if we even get to 1% of the way, that's a trillion dollars. Honestly, many in our community believe we can actually get all the way there, and that's the cult, so to speak. That's the movement.
AI 時代下的 meme 幣與人類角色
我們只剩幾分鐘。現在 AI 內容爆炸，AI 產生的內容越來越多。AI 對 meme 幣有什麼影響？是讓它們更容易投資還是更難？AI 在這裡扮演什麼角色？我很高興你問這個，因為 AI 是我論述裡很重要的一塊。我認為未來三到四年會有超過十億個 AI agent 進入網路和區塊鏈世界，其中很多會比人類還聰明。這些 agent 不只會持有加密資產，還會大量且激進地交易，甚至會騙人類、騙彼此，自己發行 meme 幣、自己炒作、自己搶交易機會。人類今天做的所有事，這些 agent 都會用一百倍的速度和效率做到。We have a few minutes left. We're moving into a world with a lot of AI, and there's much more AI-generated content. What is AI doing to memecoins? Is it making them more investable or less? What's the role of AI here? I'm really glad you asked that because AI is a big part of my thesis. I think in the next three or four years, we'll see over a billion AI agents, many of them smarter than humans, entering the internet and blockchain world. These agents won't just hold crypto assets, they'll trade them intensively and aggressively. They'll trick humans, trick each other, launch memecoins, pump them, and snipe trading opportunities. Everything humans do today, these agents will do a hundred times faster and more efficiently.
你要問自己，在八十億人類和一兆個 AI agent 的世界裡（假設人類還沒滅絕，還有點權力），人類的文化、交易和投資會變成什麼樣？我非常相信，未來一個月內的短線交易會越來越成為 AI 智商 150 的遊戲。基本上，每個人都像口袋裡有個愛因斯坦，而大公司 agent 會強一千倍。現在 93% 的人類交易已經不賺錢，未來會變成 99.9% 都賠錢。我認為人類的交易和投資會轉向社群建設、儀式設計、體驗設計，最終會變成社會運動，因為人們根本沒有其他選擇。Now, you have to ask yourself: in a world with eight billion humans and a trillion AI agents (assuming humans aren't extinct and still have some power), what will human culture, trading, and investing look like? I strongly believe that any trading done in less than a month will increasingly become a solved game for AI with IQs of 150. Basically, everyone will have an Albert Einstein in their pocket, while corporate agents will be a thousand times better. Trading that's already unprofitable for 93% of humans today will eventually be unprofitable for 99.9%. I think human trading and investing will shift toward community building, ritual design, and experience design, and at its best, building social movements—not because people want to, but because they simply won't have any other choice.
其實，當 GDP 和資源越來越多，像農業自動化後，農業在經濟裡反而變小。如果你推論下去，一千年前有價值的是人體，現在是大腦，未來就是靈魂和情感。我認為未來經濟會以關係、地位、情感、尊嚴為主。如果這推論成立，未來最大的數位資產不會是現金流或效用型的，而是完全靠社交溢價和信仰程度的資產。這就是我的看法。In fact, as GDP and abundance rise, when agriculture was automated, it actually became a smaller part of the economy. If you extrapolate that logic, a thousand years ago the human body was valuable, today it's the mind, and in the future it will be the soul and emotion. I think the relational economy, things about status, feelings, and dignity, will make up most of the economy. If that's true, and you take that logic to its extreme, I believe the biggest digital asset in the future won't be the one based on cash flows or utility, it'll be the one based entirely on social premium and levels of belief. So, yeah, big round of applause.
AI、社交交易與平台未來
Paul，我們剛剛在講者休息室聊到，隨著 AI 崛起，未來一大娛樂就是大家在像 fomo 這種社交交易平台上交易 meme 幣。這也是你們的論述之一嗎？沒錯，即使只是娛樂也很合理。如果你想像 AI 世界，資訊會變成商品，因為任何人都能生成 deepfake、在 IG 上發 Ibiza 照片，或用大型語言模型寫出聰明的貼文。當想法和媒體都商品化，唯一剩下的就是你把錢放哪裡，這才是真正的信仰，這是無法被複製的。在一切都商品化的世界，唯一剩下的就是你選擇投資什麼。未來社交網路就是大家分享自己擁有什麼，這種平台以前不存在。Paul, we were talking in the speakers' lounge about how with AI coming in, one of the big forms of entertainment will be people trading memecoins on social trading platforms like fomo. Is that part of your thesis? Yes, definitely, and I think even if it's just for entertainment, there's a lot of truth to that. If you think about an AI world, information becomes a commodity, because anyone can create a deepfake of any media, or post a photo in Ibiza on Instagram, or craft a smart statement with a large language model. When ideas and media are commoditized, the only thing left is where you put your money, because that's your real belief, and that's something that can't be copied. So in a world where everything is commoditized, the only thing left is what you choose to invest in. The future of social networking is sharing what people own, and that platform didn't exist before.
過去大家會看 WeBull、eToro 這些平台，但你只會公開自己想公開的東西。區塊鏈帶來完全透明，你可以看到大家真的在做什麼，這很酷，這可能就是未來的媒體和資訊網路。你會想讓 AI agent 進來當你們平台的用戶嗎？不會，我不這麼認為。因為社交本質是建立社群，是透明看到別人在做什麼，人類是靠同理心學習跟隨別人。語言模型可以統計平均持幣時間，但它不會在乎某個人，也沒有情感連結。我覺得如果大家都拿到同樣資訊，競爭優勢就消失了。如果你能有很棒的用戶體驗，輕鬆看到別人持有什麼，這比任何語言模型都強。Historically, people looked at platforms like WeBull and eToro, but you only post what you want to post. Blockchain brings full transparency, you can see what people are actually doing, and that's the beautiful thing it enables—maybe that's the future of media and the information network. Would you want to bring AI agents onto your platform as users? No, I don't think so. Because the social aspect is about building communities, it's about seeing what others are doing transparently, and humans learn empathetically by following others. Language models can aggregate average holding times, but they don't care about that individual, there's no emotional connection. I also think if everyone has the same information, the competitive edge disappears. If you can have a great user experience where you can easily see what others own, that's better than any language model.
但我認為 AI 作為研究工具會很重要。與其讓用戶自己 prompt 工程找答案，不如直接把 AI 產生的回應自動整合到 app 裡，像是 AI 生成的代幣描述、AI 分類、或推薦某些論述。這就是我們未來的方向，如何用 AI 打造一個超強的 app 內發現平台。However, I think AI will be very important as a research tool. Instead of making the user prompt-engineer and figure out the right answer, why not anticipate that response and include it automatically as part of the app—like AI-generated token descriptions, AI-generated classifications, or favoring certain theses on the platform. I think that's the direction we're going, and how you can use AI to build an amazing in-app discovery platform.
AI 時代的人際價值與結語
Ansem，你怎麼看？AI 和 meme 幣的未來？我認為個人價值會變得很高。過去幾年我們已經看到社交連結、KOL、內容創作者這些東西有多受歡迎。在 AI agent 滿天飛、真假難辨的時代，你會更重視那些你長期建立關係、建立社交網路的人。這些人的意見和他們投資什麼會變得更有價值。太棒了。Ansem, what do you think? AI and memecoins—what's the future? I think there will be high value for individuals. Over the past few years, we've seen how popular social connections, influencers, content creators, and all these things are. In a world full of AI agents where you don't know what's real, you'll value the people you've built relationships and your social network with over the years. There will be extra value for those people, their opinions, and where they put their money. Amazing.
時間到了，謝謝大家，這是一場很棒的討論。謝謝各位，晚安。We're out of time. Thank you all, this was a great panel. Thank you so much. Good night, everyone.
