Ansem、Mayne、Avi Felman 現場剖析市場泡沫與迷因幣生態

0:00市場氛圍大轉變：從低迷到樂觀

0:00我覺得去年 TOKEN2049 的時候，市場氣氛其實比現在還低迷。你們怎麼看這一年來的進展？不只是基本面，還有全球對加密貨幣的看法、交易市場的變化，你們覺得這一年有什麼不同？為什麼現在大家都這麼看多？Yeah, so I guess last year token, I feel like the vibes were slightly lower than they are right now with the market. What do you guys think about, like, the progress that we've made, not just, I guess, fundamentals-wise in crypto, but also, like, the— Global perception of crypto and trading these markets, and how do you think that's changed over the past year? And why is everybody so bullish, like, right now?

0:34這問題很好玩。其實如果你回頭看一年前的 TOKEN2049，價格還比較高，像 Bitcoin 那時大概 120K，ETH 超過 4K，但整個產業反而沒現在這麼開心。因為我們這一年真的在需要進步的地方有很大突破。第一，整體使用者體驗大幅提升，大家以前都說跨鏈很難，現在其實已經做到前端無感，像 FOMO 這類產品，不管你買什麼鏈的幣，註冊、買賣都很順，真的有感進步。I mean, it's a really, it's a good question, and it's so interesting because if you look back just one year ago at Token 2049, prices were higher, right? You had Bitcoin around 120, ETH was above 4K, and the industry didn't feel— As happy as it feels today, because I think we've made so much progress in the areas that we needed to. Number one, we needed to improve the general consumer experience for people interacting with crypto apps. And today, for example, everyone used to talk about this concept of, like, cross-chain and how one day it was going to be seamless to transact across. Multiple different chains. It wouldn't matter what you were doing on the underlying backend. All that would matter is the actual front end, and that's actually happening today. Like, if any of you have signed up, FOMO is the first thing that comes to my mind. It doesn't matter what chain that token is held on. Like, you just sign up for the app, you buy whatever you want to buy, you sell whatever you want to sell, and it kind of just works. And so we've really improved the user experience.

1:32不只使用者端，機構端也有很大進展。像 Robinhood 開始整合 tokenized stocks，推動產業往前。雖然價格比去年低，但整體能量更高。我們也解決了很多問題，像創辦人激勵機制，三年前大家只靠牛市行情，產品好壞沒差，等市場漲就跟著漲。現在大家更重視資料，投資會看公司有沒有真的賺錢，而不是只看未來想像。In crypto, we've made kind of tremendous strides on the institutional side as well. I mean, you see what's happening with Robinhood integrating tokenized stocks, like pushing us forward there. And so that even though you have prices lower, the energy is higher. And we've also solved a lot of other problems, which we can get into, like the incentive problems for founders, which were a huge issue. Even just three years ago, where people could just rely on a bull market, and so would just build for the sake of building, knowing that they didn't have to build a good product. They just had to wait for the market to go up, and then their project would go up too. We've sort of solved that with people actually getting better data and investing in companies that are making money now, as opposed to just— Things that have promise. Crazy thought, right? It's like crazy.

2:20產業成熟：從炒作到重視營收

2:20我們終於走出那種「只要有想像力就能募資」的階段，現在大家真的在乎營收。很妙的是，花了這麼久才讓「營收」成為主流。企業應該要賺錢、證明商業模式，才值得高估值。雖然價格低，但我覺得加密產業在監管、基礎建設上都比以往更穩健。像 Robinhood、Kraken、Coinbase 都在變成全方位的交易所，股票、收益、加密貨幣全包，真的很期待。而且現在技術面也很強，很多專案表現都很好，這是我這幾年來最興奮的時刻。I mean, like, literally, we're finally beating the, like that scene in Silicon Valley. It's like, you want to be pre-revenue, but you don't want revenue. We've finally gotten past that point in crypto where people actually care about it. So, I mean, there's so many different things. I don't, I could talk, but— It's funny that it's taken us this long for, like, the revenue meta to matter. It's like, yeah, businesses should maybe make money, prove their idea before they raise at, like, some ungodly valuation. But, I mean, I agree. Prices might be lower, but I think fundamentally crypto's never been in a better place from a regulatory perspective. With companies like Robinhood, Kraken, Coinbase kind of meeting at this nexus of becoming the everything exchange, where you can do everything: stocks, yield, crypto, obviously buying and selling. So I think it's really exciting, and I think on top of it, the charts look good. Charts look great. Charts look really nice. To me, like based on where we were at the last bottom, I feel like we're at 25K. Like the first move has just happened. We're still so early. So many projects look good. So many companies are doing well. I don't know. This is the most excited I've been in a very long time. Yeah.

3:30我覺得這幾年加密有四大成長領域：儲值（像 Bitcoin、Zcash）、資產代幣化、穩定幣，還有永續合約（perps）。現在傳統金融和加密的界線越來越模糊，兩者幾乎快要合而為一。像 Robinhood、Stripe 這些大型科技公司也都認同加密的全球價值傳遞效率比傳統金融好，ETF 機構也都承認加密的優勢。你們怎麼看這種「加密即金融，金融即加密」的趨勢？I think for me, it's like there's kind of four main areas that crypto has grown a lot in, like the store value, obviously Bitcoin and Zcash, the tokenization meta, stablecoins, and then also perps, like perpetual futures. And what it seems to me is that there's kind of been, like, the veil is thinning between what's considered just, like, finance and crypto, the kind of just becoming one and the same. So I'm curious if you guys have thoughts on that. It seems like it's kind of, like, understood now. That we have a lot better systems for, like, transmitting value globally than the existing TradFi systems. And it seems like there's a lot of large tech companies that are agreeing with this, like Robinhood, Stripe. I think even, like, the ETFs institutions have, like, acknowledged that crypto is beneficial in that way. So what do you guys think about that, like, kind of like the crypto becoming finance, finance becoming crypto, like the one and the same?

4:24機構進場與牛市新格局

4:24很有趣，如果回到 2024 年 Bitcoin ETF 剛上市時，ETF 前美國只佔 Bitcoin 交易量 35%，現在已經提升到 45-50%。這不只是散戶進場，更是機構真的開始配置。像我認識的人，因為現在可以直接在券商買到 Bitcoin，進場門檻大幅降低。現在連避險基金都會用 Hyperliquid 這種平台看週末行情，這真的很誇張。像之前伊朗衝突時，油價週末在 Hyperliquid 的價格直接成為現貨開盤價，這真的很瘋。Yeah, I mean, it's really interesting. If you go back to 2024 and the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, I think about 35% of volume for Bitcoin came from the U.S. prior to the ETF, and now it's about 45 to 50% of the volume comes from the U.S. And that is not only a reflection of retail coming in and buying, but it's a reflection of institutions actually allocating. I mean, people that I've specifically had conversations with that have come in because now you can buy it and it's in your brokerage and you can do it on the rails that you didn't have to before. So on the Bitcoin side, on the store of value side, we really have gotten to where we need to get, where it is available to every institution, and that's amazing. But more than that, I mean, there are hedge funds now that are referencing Hyperliquid for off-market trading hours. That's insane. Like, I'm, you know, talking to the guys that I used to work with, and they're just like, Yeah, yeah, like over the weekend we'll check to see where some markets are using Hype, and that is, like, unbelievable. I mean, it's on the terminal now. Well, remember what happened with oil during kind of the early days of the Iran conflict? Yeah. Basically, oil prices snapped to where Hyperliquid— traded over the weekend, which I thought was so crazy.

5:36你們覺得這也是這波熊市比較淺的原因嗎？這次高點回檔 55%，以加密來說算很淺，部分原因就是機構進場，讓 Bitcoin 不會像以前那樣大跌。也許這會讓牛市更猛烈。還有，我之前說「其實已經沒有什麼加密產業」這句話，很多人很生氣，但我覺得就像 2000 年代初大家說網路公司，2010 年後沒人再強調「網路公司」，因為每家公司都用網路。加密也是，未來大家都會用這技術，重點是誰做得好，產業標籤反而不重要，現在更像是 fintech，已經無所不在。Do you think this, like, is maybe part of the reason why we had this truncated bear market? Like, arguably 55% off the high is, I think, shallow for crypto terms, and I think part of that is this institutional just kind of interest, excuse me, in Bitcoin. Like it's just not going to go down as much as it did in the past. There's serious buyers at these levels. Maybe that translates to a more aggressive bull market. Well, I'm curious what you guys think about this take, but people got really mad at me when I said there's no such thing as crypto anymore. It's like it doesn't really exist. There are companies that use crypto in the same way that in the early 2000s. There were internet companies, but by 2010, nobody was referring to companies as internet companies. They were just companies because everyone had to use the internet. And I think that's kind of what's going to happen to crypto as well. Like, we have this idea that we're an industry, and we are in many ways because we're all working to the end goal of incorporating this tech across everything that we touch when it comes to finance. But, like— Now it's just about who's actually doing a good job, right? And that's why I don't think that the concept of crypto even really matters anymore. It's more of just like fintech. Yeah, ubiquitous now.

6:51牛市週期、機構資金與新一代標的

6:51我認為這波牛市會更猛烈，因為很多加密圈的人都相信四年週期，大家都等著今年 Q4 見底，但實際上 Bitcoin 在 Saylor 賣壓時就已經見底，很多人以為他還要賣更多，結果沒有。這波不是加密原生玩家在抄底，而是傳統金融的人看到黃金一年內從 15 兆漲到 30 兆，Bitcoin 才 1.1、1.2 兆，覺得配置一點很合理。大家都知道 Bitcoin 不會消失，是更好的數位黃金。這波牛市，機構資金進場，像 Stan Druckenmiller 買 HYPE ETF，就是很明顯的訊號。這些人會像配置股票一樣配置加密，這也是為什麼這輪牛市目標會更高。Yeah, on, like, the, I think the thesis of the bull market being more aggressive, I'm actually in the camp that, yes, that is going to be true. And I think the reasoning behind it— A lot of the crypto natives have, like, attached themselves to this idea of the four-year cycle. And as we know, everybody was waiting for the bottom to happen in Q4 of this year. People in the summer thought prices were going to go a lot lower, and we actually bottomed while Saylor was selling into the bottom at 60K. A lot of people thought he was going to have to sell a lot more. He didn't end up having to sell a lot more. He shorted some cash. So it wasn't crypto natives, I think, primarily that were bidding that bot. I mean, the thing is, I think it was more the TradFi guys who were like, okay, gold just went from 15 trillion to 30 trillion in like a year. Bitcoin is only at like 1.1, 1.2 trillion here. It makes sense to allocate a few percent of our portfolio to Bitcoin. We know it's not going away, and it's a better version of gold digitally. And so I think you had a lot of TradFi people allocating to crypto, and we spoke a little bit about the revenue meta, but it's clear that, like, there are some crypto startups right now that are very successful, Hyperliquid being one of them, and they also have an ETF. I think one of the big signs of TradFi also being interested in crypto is Stan Druckenmiller buying the HYPE ETF. That was like— Incredible to see for me because it shows that these people, these great traders in TradFi world are paying attention to the most successful startups in crypto. And if you think that these people are going to be allocating more to crypto in the same way they allocate to stocks passively, then it makes a lot more sense why we would have higher targets for the bull market this cycle. So I think that does make sense.

8:34現在已經不是「撒錢買一堆」的時代，大家會挑有差異化、真的有 PMF 的項目，這些標的會有大量資金流入。以前只要市場好，什麼都漲，現在是有營收、有基本面的項目才會被買單。這也解決了創辦人只靠市場行情、產品沒價值的問題。現在你真的做出好產品，賺的錢比以前多很多。整體來說，現在的創辦人素質比五年前高太多了。It's also like a concentrated— Pick of names, I think before it was kind of like spray and pray. Like when crypto was early days, we were betting on the growth of the industry as a whole happening. And when you're betting on that, you're not pricing things on their current PMF. You're pricing things on the future. And because of that, like alts would just move together. But now that we have businesses that have differentiated themselves and are successful, it's kind of like, okay, we know what names we're gonna buy and bid, and those names get, like, a lot more inflows, I think. So it's also like that. It's all the founder problem, right? Because if you could build a company and just expect it to go up with the market. And just cash out because everything was liquid. You had no incentive to actually build. The product was the token, right? The problem is, like, the token is, like, all unlocked. It's kind of nonsense. And now it's like, oh, if you build a real product, you make way more money. And I think we're actually, like, I don't know if you guys agree with this, but I think that the founders are just— Really high quality now. Yeah, all of the people that are running the top products in crypto are so much better than the people running the top products in crypto five years ago. Yeah, it's not even close.

9:37產業成熟：用傳統金融模型分析加密

9:37現在分析像 Hyperliquid 或 Lighter 這類項目，已經可以用傳統金融的模型來看，因為它們是有營收的公司。像 Hyperliquid 在熊市創新高，超賺錢，還會回購代幣。我很期待未來有更多這種「公司型代幣」，可以像分析股票一樣看財報、看獲利，決定資金配置。整個產業真的越來越成熟，這讓人超興奮。I'd be interested to get your guys' thoughts on this because, to your point, like, you know, you used to look at these tokens, okay, it's cyclical in nature, it's a good time to allocate to altcoins. Now we're arguably at a place where when you're analyzing something like— Hyperliquid or Lighter, we can use traditional finance models because, like, these are revenue-generating businesses. So Hyperliquid made all-time highs during the bear market. Obviously, this is like a super profitable business. They're buying back the token constantly. I'm very excited to see more tokens based on companies that make money, and we can use things outside of just the chart. To determine if this is, like, a good place to allocate your capital. So Hyperliquid, I think, is obviously the gold standard, but lighter too, arguably, and hopefully some more tokens where we can say, okay, how much money do they make? We can do, like, you know, actual, like, earnings snapshots like you do with a regular stock to determine allocating to some of these businesses. So just, like, the maturation of the industry in general. Super exciting.

10:39我剛進加密時，除了 Bitcoin 以外，其他幣對我來說都只是短線交易，賺 10% 就跑，完全不信任。但現在我覺得加密更適合投資而不是純交易。最大的錯誤就是還用舊思維，看到漲 30% 就賣，其實現在才是投資的時機。很多人今年錯過 HYPE，因為只盯著 Bitcoin、ETH，結果 HYPE 1 月見底後一路翻倍。這也反映產業成熟，現在 altcoin 不是一起漲跌，而是看基本面和資金流。I mean, I'll say this. When I first got into crypto, literally everything for me was a trade except for Bitcoin. Bitcoin was the only investment. Like, I was like, just stack BTC. Literally, I'll buy an alt because I know I'm going to sell it in like three seconds, ten seconds, whatever. Like, if it's up 10%, like, I'm out because I do not believe in this thing at all. And now, for the first time, I think crypto is more conducive for investment than it is for trading. Like, I think the biggest mistake that people can make right now is anchor to the old world where you're getting out on pumps. Like, if hype goes to 120, you're out because you made your 30%. It's just like, what are you doing? Like, this is a time for actual investment. I think a lot of people missed hype. Earlier this year, because they were, like, looking at majors, Bitcoin and ETH, because hype bottoms in January of 2026. But Bitcoin and ETH went down like 30, 40% from there. And hype was, as we know, has been up only 20 to fucking, what, 100 now. But even in that period, it was still up like 2x from the bottom in January. And if you were allocating— To previously, like how you would in previous cycles, you're never buying alts when rates are going down. You're just absolutely not doing that. And I think that's one of the main signs we've seen, as we said, like the maturation of the industry. Altcoins don't trend all at one time. They trend based on their actual fundamental values and inflows.

12:02內容創作與交易者新角色

12:02像 Zcash 也是好例子，去年 10 月底全市場 altcoin 大跌，Zcash 跌到 40，三個月後漲到 800。現在散戶、投資人可以更容易找到被低估、團隊真的在做事的項目。上一輪很多中心化交易所的 altcoin 表現很差，但這幾年有些基本面大幅改善，市場機會變多。你們兩位都做很久的交易，也有自己的 podcast，分享觀點、討論部位，這對你們有什麼影響？And Zcash is another really good example. Like Zcash bottomed. Like right after 10-10, I want to say, like 10-10, every alt got crushed, and Zcash was at 40. And then, like three months later, it was at like 800. And so it was like one of those situations. That hurts to remember that it was $40 like last year. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I think, like, as an investor, even as a retail trader, you definitely have the advantage now of being able to look. in the market and see, like, what's mispriced, like what teams are actually building, because last cycle a lot of the CEX, like centralized exchange, alts did so poorly. But they've improved their fundamentals, some of them really significantly over the past few years, and so you're able to find those opportunities in the market. But I know you guys are— Trading crypto a very long time. You guys both also have podcasts. I also have a podcast. How have you guys felt, like, with just trading versus trading and actually speaking about your positions on a recurring, like, weekly basis and sharing your insights and knowledge with everybody?

13:05我很喜歡這樣，因為能夠用簡單的方式講清楚自己的看法，反而更強化自己的投資論點。我們剛剛在後台還聊到，現在大家都變成「交易員→內容創作者」的路線，想把自己的想法分享給更多人。其實我當初做內容，就是希望有更多人願意公開分享市場觀點，因為我們剛入行時資訊很難找，現在反而是資訊爆炸時代，像 Avi、Flood 這些高手都會上 podcast 分享，非常有價值。如果我們能回饋給下一代，真的很棒。我很喜歡現在加密媒體的發展。I love it. I don't know. It helps me kind of, like, reinforce my thesis if I'm able to, like, speak about it confidently. And describe it to other people simply, just like, this is why I'm bullish on this for this reason. So I do think it's kind of funny, we were talking about this backstage, it's kind of like the, like, trader to content creator pipeline that we're all inevitably on. It's like, you know, you just kind of want to share the message with the world. I mean, a large part of doing content for me was Wishing there was more people willing to share their market thoughts and just how they think and view trades publicly, because that wasn't really available when we first started. It was a lot harder to get information, where now we're like in an information abundance era where you have genuinely guys like Avi, guys like Flood, like extremely sharp people talking on podcasts. Sharing their thoughts, how they view markets. Yeah, thanks, thanks. But like, I think it's unbelievably valuable. So if, like, we can give that back in any way at all to the next generation, I think it's, you know, super cool. So I love the way that crypto is going. I love the way that crypto media is going, you know, as well.

14:14現在好像每個成功投資人都要開 podcast，這已經變成規則了（笑）。但更重要的是，我以前在 hedge fund，大家都很保守，不會公開自己的部位或想法，怕被抄、怕法規問題。現在世界越來越金融化，大家需要好資訊。像 2000 年代初，30 歲以下只有三分之一的人投資股票，現在已經三倍成長，因為大家覺得需要投資。美國的社會契約已經破裂，光靠工作很難達到目標，所以大家才會想靠投資致富。這幾年不只股票，還有 meme 幣、運彩，大家都想靠這些翻身。我做 podcast，就是希望大家能更理性看待財經資訊，不要只買 meme 幣，要看大趨勢，像 AI、加密這些真正改變世界的東西，才不會亂賭爆倉。I mean, like, look, number one, like every successful investor has to start a podcast. It's kind of a rule, like it just has to happen. But more importantly than that, I think, like I came from the hedge fund world, right? And in that world, you really don't want to talk about what you're doing because you want to keep it close to your chest. Maybe, you know, you talk to your other buddies about it, but like you're not blasting your thesis publicly. One, there are regulatory issues. Like if I go out there and I publish something, and then I'm a trader and I change my mind in 15 days and I sell, like I'm kind of stuck. I actually can't really do that. So there was a big friction for me. But more importantly than that, over the last two years, I started to realize that as the world becomes more financialized, people Need good information. If you go back into the early 2000s and you take a look at how many people were actually invested in the stock market, it was like a third of people under the age of 30 versus today, right? It's like we've literally 3x the amount of people under the age of 30 that are investing in the stock market now. And it's because people feel like they need that exposure. They feel like, in many ways, the social contract has been broken. In the United States, where you can work a job your whole life and still not get to where you want to go. And so people are attracted to this idea of investing. I can grow my wealth. And over the last two to three years, a lot of that energy has not just been directed at the stock market; it's been directed into meme coins. It's been directed into gambling, into sports betting. And I guess part of starting that. Podcast, The Thousand X, is giving people a better way to process and understand financial information so that they can make better decisions. Because I know that there's a growing audience for it, and I'm trying to say, maybe don't buy the meme coin. Maybe focus on the fact that there are genuine, world-changing megatrends happening right now, and you need to take advantage of that. Like, if you believe that in— Ten years, crypto is going to eat the world, or you believe that AI is going to grow massively. Like, you need to be invested in the market, and you can't be blowing yourself up buying, like, the latest meme coin or, like, gambling on sports. And how am I going to reach those people? I think is by giving them, by saying this and giving them good information. And I just think it's really important now. Kind of more than ever.

16:35迷因幣、超短線與資產配置

16:35其實大家還是會去賭、去玩 meme 幣，所以如果我們能提供好資訊，至少讓有經驗的人分享自己的觀點，對大家有幫助。很有趣的是，過去美國有很大比例的人把中樂透當退休計畫，現在很多人把加密、交易、meme 幣當退休夢，這其實很瘋。雖然真的有人靠這些發財，但這不能當退休規劃。Well, they're going to do it anyways, right? So if you're going to gamble away, I mean, I always bring up my brother on my show because, you know, he's a dentist, he's got his retirement account, he's got, you know, Robinhood, and he's trading his retirement account. He's doing the AI trade stuff. And so for someone like him, I'm like, where are you getting your information? And there's, like, a guy I follow on YouTube who's out there sharing his picks, and I'm like, you know, if we can curate good information for people. They're going to do it anyways. At least they have, you know, people with experience saying, This is what I would do. This is what I think. Here's how I view things. I think it's very helpful. It's very funny that you bring that up because I remember growing up, they said that a large percentage of Americans thought winning the lottery was their retirement plan. And now people are saying the same thing about crypto and trading, like, Oh, I'm going to retire off of... A meme coin or sports bets, pretty nuts. I mean, look, and there are people that do it, so I'm not gonna, you know, it does happen. Like, you know, people do hit it big, and I'm not gonna say that I've never tried to dabble in the meme coin world. I mean, it's fun, but it can't be a retirement plan. That's for sure.

17:40我們剛剛聊到現在很多人不再追求短線輪動（hyper-rotation），如果你真的看好 Hyperliquid，為什麼還要設一個隨便的賣出目標？但 meme 幣圈還是很流行超短線輪動，這其實也沒什麼不好，重點是你要知道自己在玩什麼。meme 幣更像是 TikTok、Instagram 的短影音，注意力很短暫，但如果你很會抓熱點、很快進出，還是能賺到錢。很多年輕人直播 12 小時狂做 meme 幣，熊市也能賺到幾百萬美金，但持倉時間都超短。這就是一種新型態的「小遊戲」，你只要懂得分配資產，70% 放在 Bitcoin、Solana、Hyperliquid 這種高信仰標的，30% 拿去玩 meme 幣、DeFi、perps，這樣風險控管就好。We just mentioned this idea of, like, not wanting to hyper-rotate anymore out of these mega trends. Like, if you believe in Hyperliquid, why are you worried about selling at, like, arbitrary made-up targets based on the cycle? Whereas I find, at least in the meme coin world right now, it's like hyper-rotating is the trend. Like, do you think that's a bad thing? I don't think it's a bad thing. I think it's just, like, the nature of the market. You have to know— What you're trading, I think if you look at meme coins, they're more similar to like TikTok and Instagram. So if you look at Instagram, it, what, like three billion active users. If you look at, like, how many holders of Meta there are, there's obviously like one one-hundredth, if not one one-thousandth of that. So, like, the people who are investing. In Meta as a company are not the same people that are scrolling for three seconds on TikTok or scrolling Instagram Reels. I think meme coins are very similar. It's like that attention period where these coins do really well. It's usually short, but if you get really good at that game, it's like a mini game. Same way the Zoomers play like Fortnite and they get really good at, like, building the stuff really fast and turning really fast and shooting people. I think meme coins are similar in that way, where it's like if you get good at that game and you can be faster at everybody else at betting on what's going to go viral and what's going to get attention, you can make a lot of money. Like the people who are like trading in the trenches, I watch some of the streamers, some of these like— Really young guys, they stream like 12 hours a day just trading memes across all the chains. And some of them have made like multi-millions in the past year in the bear market. Stuff's not even moving just because they've gotten really good at figuring out what's going to pop and how long they're going to be in it. But their hold times are like less than a minute. Like they're not holding things very long. So it's like you have those people playing that mini game, and then on the other side it's like— You have the altcoins, stocks, trends that are happening. And I think you can do both of these things. You just have to know how to, like, segment your portfolio. Like, obviously, if you're trading with $10 million or multi-millions, you're not going to be like, I'm going to throw a million into this meme at a super low market cap. But it's like, if you're playing that with a smaller portion of your portfolio and you get good at that, that actually can eclipse. The rest of your portfolio, and you can add that to all your safer positions. So what I always say is, like, I think 70/30 is kind of like a good barbell in crypto. It's like your 70% is like, okay, I'm going to buy some Bitcoin, I'm going to buy some Solana, I'm going to buy some Hyperliquid, maybe like my high-conviction stuff. And then the 30% is like, okay, I'm going to go degen level in perks when people are getting liquidated. I'm going to play on-chain. I'm going to play these memes. I'm going to play these new DeFi protocols. And that's like your riskier part of your portfolio, but it can catch up to the rest. And you just have to know, like, how to allocate your capital. I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing. I think it's just a new mini game, and I don't think it's going away. If you look at, like, Pump.fun's revenue numbers, it's pretty clear. Even in the bear market, that, like, there's people who are going to continue trading.

20:46迷因幣交易的困境與社群效應

20:46我自己玩 meme 幣很不行，但還是想參與這種「去中心化瘋狂」，因為這趨勢不會消失，只會越來越大。交易其實就是要有 edge（優勢），那你們怎麼在 meme 幣找到 edge？其實最重要的是社群媒體敏感度，很多 meme 幣都是搭上社群熱點，如果你能搶先發現某個話題會爆紅，搶先進場就能賺到。還有持有人結構很重要，meme 幣完全靠社群信仰，只要社群夠死忠、持續帶話題，幣價就會漲。像 Dogecoin 就是因為 Elon 不斷喊，大家信 Elon 就跟著買。Oh my God. I mean, well, that's what, for me, like, I'm like an unk. I've tried the meme coin stuff. I can't do it. But I want exposure to the degeneracy, you know what I mean? Like, because I don't think it's going anywhere. It's definitely not going anywhere. I mean, this entire thing is just going to keep growing. This entire idea of the attention economy is just going to blow up. But I'm kind of curious, like, how... Trading comes down to edge, right? But how do you actually generate edge in meme coins? Like, what do you look at when you're trying to figure out, okay, this thing is going to pop off? Yeah, it's a complicated game. I think a really key piece of it is, like, getting just really good at social media. And, like, what's going viral on socials? Because a lot of these coins usually attach to these viral moments that are already happening. So if, like, you can see something, like, picking up attention, like, oh, somebody's going to make a coin attached to this. And if you're one of the first people to buy it before that even exists, obviously you're going to print. And then I think, like, another thing, it's kind of like the holder distribution, the holder base of these people, because meme coins are purely community belief. Oriented. If, like, the community of people around them are diehard and they're going to keep making it go viral, the coin is going to continue to go up. So you kind of have to pay attention to who the people are holding these coins and what they're doing, how active they are on socials and looking at. And then it's like a lot of it's social. Like this social capital point, it, like, draws a lot of value to memes. Like that's why Doge went so high in 2020, because Elon just kept talking about Dogecoin and people were like— Well, I don't really know what Dogecoin is, but I know who Elon is. And so if Elon's attaching his name to this, I'm going to buy some of it. And so, like, a lot of these memes, I think, have people at the top attached to them that are driving that value. People trust them, and so they, in turn, like, trust these coins.

22:09你們覺得這裡有點像囚徒困境嗎？像 FOMO 的排行榜，大家帳面賺幾千萬美金，但都沒出金，因為一賣就會被前置、被罵，名聲壓力很大。我自己也有類似經驗，買了 GP 這個 RuneScape 迷因幣，帳面上排行榜很前面，但根本賣不掉，因為一賣就會被罵、被前置。這也是為什麼會有這種暴漲暴跌的現象。Do you think there's a bit of, like, a prisoner's dilemma going on? Like, I'm watching the FOMO experiment, whatever you want to call it, with this leaderboard, which is crazy. It's cool. I mean, you see eight-figure... PNLs, but then you look at, like, their closed profit, it's none. They have no cash. They have $20 million PNL in this meme coin. Like, what's the end game? How do you get out? You literally can't. Yeah, like, I had this experience. I mean, I literally, okay, so I've never really dabbled in meme coins, definitely not publicly. But recently I bought this meme coin called GP, which was attached to RuneScape because I used to play this game all the time as a kid. Like, I loved it. And I bought it, and I went kind of to the top of the FOMO leaderboard. I think I was like number 60 because this thing ripped after I bought it. And I'm thinking, like, I can never sell this thing. Like, I literally—and I didn't. I still, I'm holding it. I held it all the way up to 30 mil. I held it all the way down because— I was like, look, if I tweeted about this thing, one, people are going to get really mad if I sell it. And two, like, yeah, it's just going to cause a whole shitshow for me. And I think basically everybody on that FOMO leaderboard feels the same way. And it's not only a reputational thing. Like, you actually just have to full stack every meme coin when you sell it if you're public. Because if you have a million bucks of something and you sell $5,000, It's like, it's over. Like, it's in front run because everyone knows that you're about to sell the rest of it. So you just have to, like, I think that's what's causing these, like, massive run-ups and then just boom.

23:38我之前也有這種道德困境，玩 FOMO 只是測試，結果買到一個 3 萬市值的幣，後來漲到 500 萬，根本不敢賣。現在有觀眾就更難，因為你知道只要你買，大家會跟單，但你賣又會被罵。其實現在市場氛圍也在變，三年前大家覺得 meme 幣都是騙局，現在大家都在玩，未來應該會更開放。像 Frank Degods 就很坦蕩，買賣都公開，大家也接受。其實如果你要玩這種東西，就要坦白自己會買會賣，不能怪別人跟單又怪你賣。Well, I, like, I've talked with Z about this in the past because, like, I have this, like, weird, like, kind of moral dilemma where, like, I got on FOMO. I was putting, like, literally 500 bucks into some, like, grant, just testing the app out. And I accidentally bought something that was like a $30,000 market. Immediately, Maine is buying shitters. Then goes to like 5 million. And I'm like, okay, I can't ever. I'm gonna have to hold this till zero forever. Never talk about it, never acknowledge it. And when you have an audience, it's difficult because I want to participate in the new narrative. Like, this looks fun. Everyone's doing it. But at the same time, like, I know people are going to blindly buy things if I buy it. So, like, how do you do it? Do you do it anonymously? I think it's kind of changing right now. I think the market is, like, if you were to go three years ago, people thought all meme coins were scams, would never even talk about trading them at all. And then it's like, okay, now everybody's trading them, they're not going away. And I think in the future it's going to be, like, less taboo to be buying and selling a lot of these things. And Frank, I don't know, Frank Degods has kind of pulled that off. Pretty, pretty well. He's like, bro, I don't care if you guys are tracking my wallet. When I buy something, I'm gonna sell it when I want to sell it. I don't care if you guys are tailing me. I don't care what you guys think about me. I don't care if I change my thesis. My stuff changes minute to minute. But I think it's fair. Like, if you're gonna trade these things, you have to just be transparent that you're gonna buy and sell them. You can't— You can't give somebody the benefit of, I'm going to copy trade this person, and then be like, You can never sell because I'm copy trading you because you're a good trader. Because the only reason they're a good trader and you're copy trading them is because they know when to sell and when to take profit. So it doesn't really make sense.

25:10社交交易、資本分配與注意力經濟

25:10其實未來像 perps、社交交易這種會更主流，因為這些標的流動性高，大家可以輕鬆進出。當你在 Apple、Amazon 這種股票上看到 1,000 萬美金的 PNL，大家就會更願意跟單，資本也能更有效率地分配到成長最快的地方。像有人發表 AI 影響生技產業的深度報告，帶動相關公司股價上漲，這些公司就能再投資、加速創新，這就是社交交易的正向循環。meme 幣只是概念驗證，未來資本會流向更有生產力的標的。But I do think it's, like, a lot more scalable, like, perps and social trading. Like once that blows up and you're seeing like these $10 million PNLs on stuff like Apple or $10 million PNLs on stuff like Amazon, $10 million PNLs on stuff like Sandisk, it's like they can exit that easily. And so it's like if you get popular for crushing it with stocks and stuff that's like a lot more liquid, that's when I think like the social trading thesis is actually going to grow a lot more. Aggressively, because it's like you can copy trade these people if you want, and you're not going to have to worry about them selling it to local. I also think it's going to be good for the financial system as well, because it's going to reallocate capital effectively to the people that are allocating it to the places that are growing the pie. Yeah, right. Like if you take a look at the market right now, let's say somebody puts out an amazing thesis on how AI is going to radically improve biotech. And they do a really big deep dive into it, and they have the top five companies that are actually doing real work pushing forward drug development. They buy it, they have a big social presence. Suddenly the stock prices of these companies go up, and they're able to reinvest, and they're able to actually produce these drugs at an even faster rate. I mean, that's actually a really exciting part of social trading. Like if we can get away from— Meme coins and start, like, allocating capital more. Or, like, meme coins is like kind of the proof of concept, right?

26:24現在 meme 幣圈的社群聲量很大，大家都在 FOMO 晒 PNL，但其實做 perps 的大戶才是真的狠角色，只是沒公開。其實 meme 幣的 edge 很像傳統市場的 edge，以前看新聞會想「這會影響什麼標的？怎麼賺錢？」現在 meme 幣就是看哪個梗圖讓你會心一笑，狗戴帽子就買，完全是注意力經濟。其實股票也一樣，像 Chris Camillo 就很會用社群熱度判斷公司成長，零售、消費者注意力都會先反映在市場，財報還沒公布前就能抓到機會。Yeah, and I think it's interesting because some of the meme coin guys, especially on social media, like, they're getting really loud, right? Like on FOMO, it's like, Oh dude, I got this, like, PNL on FOMO. It's huge. I'm like, You guys don't realize, like, some of our friends who are like— The big dogs in perp. Yeah, like the guys get a dog walk. Yeah, like PNLs. If this stuff was public, you would be shocked to see what some of these guys are doing in the order books. Yeah, it's funny, you know, your take on, like, how to generate edge in meme coins sort of, like, reminds me of how I used to think about generating edge in the traditional markets. It's every time I would read a headline in the newspaper. I would think to myself, what does this affect? Like, how do I make money on this? And I'm like, the equivalent in the meme coin world is like, if you see a meme online, does it make you smile? Yeah, it's literally like if there's a— if it makes you smile and there's a, like, dog has a hat, like, just go buy it, and it's just like a different... I guess it's like all the same. I do think it's all kind of relative, like relatively similar though, because I don't know if you guys know Chris Camillo, like he's a big social trading guy. The attention thing and how attention drives value to these companies applies. To stocks, just the same way it applies to meme coins. And because, like, when something—when a company starts to have, like, breakout success in a certain area, that's going to happen with the attention of retail and the attention of other businesses, the attention of these consumers on that company and whatever their new product is before you see it in the quarterly report. Like, it's not—you're not going to see the actual revenue that they made that this attention shift caused. Until like a few months later. But if you can see that happening in real time, you're actually paying attention to the attention, not paying attention to the numbers that are actually in the report. And so it's like the same thing where you're evaluating socially how everything is changing and reacting.

28:08AI 熱潮、泡沫與基礎設施投資

28:08Robinhood 就是一個好例子，他們推出 L2 時，大家就知道這會帶來大量收益，股價也會反映。Chris Camillo 會看 TikTok、社群熱度，像 Jeffree Star 推薦平價彩妝，藥妝店就大排長龍，這些現象都會提前反映在市場。像我自己也有類似經驗，看到American Eagle 找 Sydney Sweeney 拍廣告，結果財報一公布就大漲 35%。只要你夠敏感，市場機會真的很多。I think Robinhood is like a really good example. It's like when they launched their L2, people were like, well, they're making a ton of money off this. The stock will probably do well if— In a few months, this continues, and, like, people who aren't watching the L2, aren't watching the crypto side of things would never even factor that into their calculus until they see it in the reports. But that applies to all kinds of different companies, I think. The way Chris Camillo, he said he looks at TikTok a lot, he looks at social media a lot, right? Like he saw Jeffree Star do a video on, like, their makeup. He's like a huge influencer. He's like, This makeup's as good as the stuff that costs 10x. And then he, like, went to the pharmacy and he saw all the parents buying it for their kids. He's like, There's something here. I had a very similar experience with American Eagle. I don't know if you remember the Sydney Sweeney ad. Yeah. So, like, she— and I was in the mall one day with my girlfriend. I'm just, like, walking down and I look at the American Eagle store and it's just, like, totally packed. Like, wait a second, like, do I need to— is it working? Like, do I need to buy this? I didn't end up buying it. But then when the quarterly earnings came out, it went up 35% because it had just, like, totally blown it out of the water. That's why I was like, there actually are a lot of opportunities like that in the market if you're just paying attention, 100%.

29:20你們怎麼看最近 AI 熱潮？像 Anthropic IPO、OpenAI 這些估值很高但還沒賺錢，你們覺得 AI 會不會泡沫化？我自己不是 AI 專家，但我覺得未來最缺的是算力、電力、晶片，這些基礎設施才是 bottleneck。AI 實驗室本身能不能賺錢還不確定，未來 AI 可能變成商品，真正賺錢的是把 AI 應用到產品、服務的公司，而不是模型開發者本身。I'd be curious to get your guys' thoughts then on some of the AI stuff that, you know, is coming to a head here with, like, the Anthropic IPO. Have you been following? That, like, quite closely with the valuation they're coming at, the amount of money they're spending, the amount of money they're making. Like, do you think these are, like, is there an AI bubble pop here in the next year? It's a great question. Look, I am not an expert on this by any means. I am not bullish on the AI labs themselves, like Anthropic. OpenAI, I have no idea if they're ever going to actually become profitable. But what I know is that we need more compute. That's all I know. And I know that there is a bottleneck in power, and I know that there's a bottleneck in physical commodity of copper, and I know that there is a bottleneck in terms of chips, and I know that there's a national security issue when it comes to the production of chips. That's why I love Intel. But, like, when it comes to— AI in general, very bullish on the future, but like the actual labs themselves, like I don't know. Like it might be that intelligence literally becomes a commodity in the future, and that the providers of that, the ones that are actually developing the models, are not the ones that are making money, right? It's the people that are implementing AI that are using it to make their products cheaper. Where their service is more effective, those are the ones that end up making money. But the actual builders of the models don't. Like, I just, I don't know. That's the answer.

30:46我覺得 AI 實驗室未來的關鍵會是「分發能力」，誰能把使用者鎖住誰就贏。像 OpenAI 已經做到大家把 Chat 當動詞用，雖然他們訓練模型很燒錢，但如果能在 ChatGPT 裡賣廣告、用使用者資料變現，還是有很大潛力。Anthropic 估值超高但營收還沒跟上，未來怎麼發展還很難說。其實我也問過很多 AI 圈的朋友，有人很悲觀，有人很樂觀，但我自己還沒找到能直接賺錢的投資標的，可能還是要看基礎設施、算力、晶片這些。I think a lot of it is going to be a distribution game, to be honest, because, like, if you're betting on the models continuously getting cheaper and more efficient and the open source... Versions of these, like closed-source models are also going to keep getting better and better. But I think the differentiator is going to be, like, which labs are able to get really, really good lock-in with their customers. I think OpenAI has done a great job of this so far because people literally use, like, Chat as, like, a word. Like, oh, I looked this up on Chat. I use Chat for this. I use Chat for that. They have millions and millions of users. And so it's like, even if they aren't as profitable on, like— How much they're spending on training these models and how much they're spending on compute. If they're able to, like, start putting ads into ChatGPT and, like, start selling ads in that way where everybody spends a whole bunch of time there anyway, and you have all the information, all the data on what they talk to Chat about every single day, then you should know, like— Very, very, very directly which ads you want to sell them to and what stuff they're going to click on and what they're going to react to. And so I think honestly that's like kind of an under-discussed part of the labs, AI labs discussion is like they can monetize in other ways outside of just like selling the subscriptions. But it's definitely interesting. I have no idea how it's going to play. I think Anthropic is coming out at like two trillion or something crazy. It just, like, the revenue is not scaling with expenditures right now, and I don't even think they released any 2026 numbers in their most recent, like, release of discussing the IPO, which was concerning. I talked to a few friends who are very deep in AI. Some are— Much more dystopian and doomer, like, you know, we're gonna die. And other ones are like, listen, like humans are always gonna have problems. AI is always gonna have something to solve, so they're actually quite excited about the future. I'm with you. I don't know. I'm trying to think of ways that I can make money on the trade, but I just don't know if the trade is the labs. I think it's maybe the picks and the shovels, right?

32:41AI、加密與未來資本流向

32:41這也是我為什麼這麼看好 Bitcoin、Zcash。政治上如果 AI 真的導致大規模失業，政府一定會印鈔救市，這對加密超級利多。如果 AI 讓全世界更有錢，大家也會有更多資本配置到加密。不管悲觀還是樂觀，對加密都是好事。那 Zcash 會漲到多少？我覺得 5,000 很合理，2 萬就太爽了。這其實就像 10 年前的 Bitcoin，當時大家也沒想到會漲這麼多。AI 股一年內從 1,000 億漲到 1 兆，資本推動速度很快，Zcash 也有可能複製這種走勢。Here's a take, look. This is why I'm so bullish on Bitcoin. I'm so bullish on Zcash. It's like, because politically, think about it. If AI really does take off and there is massive job loss, then the politicians are going to have to solve that by printing money. They're going to have to basically take capital from the people that are making money and redistribute it, or they're going to print, and that's going to be extremely bullish for crypto. If— We're in a world where AI really does improve the bottom line for companies across the board, and everyone's making more profit. That's a wealthier world, and people are going to have more to allocate to crypto anyway. So it's like kind of whichever way you look at it, in the doomer sense, it's good for crypto. In the optimist sense, it's good for crypto. And there are very few assets. That that's true for, like, it's— so the real question is, how high is Zcash going? Like 20,000? Is that the prediction? I don't—I don't know. I think 5,000 is definitely reasonable. I would love it if it went to 20. That would be kind of fun. Like, is this not just like the Bitcoin trade all over again 10 years ago? It kind of feels like it, right? It feels— that's exactly how it feels to me when I first— Bought Bitcoin for the first time. It was in 2017. I think Bitcoin was like 3K, and at the beginning of that year it was like 1K. It ended the year at 20K. So people have seen this happen already. They already understand that this can happen with these assets. We had fucking a lot of these AI stocks go from like 100 billion to 1 trillion in a year. So we know it's possible for capital allocators to push these assets. High that fast. I wouldn't be surprised, honestly, for Zcash to run similar to the way Bitcoin did. My only hesitation with that is it was already at 40 like a year ago. Like, it's not even like starting at a thousand. It started at 40 like last year.

34:30Zcash 這個故事很久了，像 T-Mac、Ari Paul 都喊了十年，雖然中間跌了 90%，但現在真的漲回來了。Zcash 其實實現了 Bitcoin 原本想做的「口袋裡的瑞士銀行」，只是現在 Bitcoin 被 Chainalysis、TRM 這些公司追蹤，Zcash 才是真正的匿名資產。我還是很看好，只是覺得自己持有不夠多。What's his name? T-Mac. Bro, he's been screaming out Zcash to me for 10 years, bro. 10 years. I'm glad he made it. I'm glad he made it off that. It's insane, actually. When I was working at Blocktower, my old boss, Ari Paul, I think this was like in 2019, he looks at me and he goes, Zcash one day is going to return this entire fund. And Zcash proceeded to go down 90% the next year. One day. And today, if we had held, it for sure would have returned the fund. So, you know, he was right because I think, like, this, it is inevitable, right? At the end of the day. Zcash does fulfill a purpose that Bitcoin originally was supposed to fulfill that was taken away by firms like Chainalysis and TRM. In many ways, it's good that Bitcoin became trackable because there was a lot of crime associated with it. But, like, the original idea of Bitcoin, one thing that made it so valuable is it's literally a Swiss bank account in your pocket. And Zcash is now that. It's a Swiss bank account in your pocket. Yeah. So I don't know. I'm still bullish on it. Yeah, I don't think I own enough.

35:32投資心態、長線信仰與 AI 結合

35:32有時候真的很難關掉交易員腦，跟你們這種高手聊會很興奮，但回家看圖還是會忍不住短線操作。像之前 Zcash 被駭，我也被嚇到賣掉，結果圖型完全回復，這種時候其實應該要重倉。要跳脫四年週期腦，學會用十年視角看投資。像 Mert 就很厲害，他只挑幾個超高信仰的資產，完全不在意時間點，這也是 Bitcoin 早期能成功的原因，大家不是看價格，而是相信這是更好的貨幣，堅持到全世界認同為止。How do you trade? Well, I mean, sometimes it's really hard to turn off the trader brain. And, like, you know, when I have conversations with guys like you, like, I get so excited about, like, the industry and, like, the long-term future of some of these things. But when I'm at home and I'm in the charts, I'm a trader. Like when they had that exploit, like I was, like, admittedly fudded out. I was like, Oh, this seems bad. And then, like, the chart, like, fully recovered, and I'm like, Okay, well, if this is just like a chart in a vacuum, like, this is full port. Like when it completely recovered that move down, I'm like, This is full port. I didn't. And, you know, that's, it's really tough to kind of, like, get out of that, like, trader mindset, something I still struggle with. And think about, like, the long-term view of, like, okay, like this is a 10-year time horizon as opposed to four-year cycle brain that has infected us all, where it's like, oh, I just got to sell literally four years to the day today, and it just happened to be the top because of a 4chan post. I think Murt honestly does this really well, where he's like, oh, I have a few assets in crypto. That I know eventually are going to do really well, and I'm super high convicted on that. I have no idea the time frame, but I know at some point these things are going to do really well. I think it's honestly his way of approaching investing in crypto makes sense because he just has a super long time horizon and just has really, really strong conviction on a few different things. And I think that's honestly, like, the reason why Bitcoin did so well in its early days. They weren't looking at the price. They weren't traders. They were like, We believe. That this is a way harder, way better form of money than what we have today, and we don't care what the price is. We're just going to hold this thing until everybody else agrees with us, and it played out. So I think that kind of like collective belief, the investor mindset is kind of very similar in crypto.

37:18我們剛剛聊到 AI，其實加密和 AI 很互補。AI 智能會被商品化，大家都能用 AI 做很多事，但加密可以證明你是人、內容是獨特的。加密和 AI 股也沒什麼相關性，像 Bitcoin、Zcash 就是例子。未來網路內容真假難辨，需要加密來驗證真實性。你們怎麼看這個趨勢？We talked a little bit about AI. I think, honestly, what do you guys think about crypto being kind of like complementary to AI? So, like AI obviously. Intelligence is going to be commoditized. It's going to be very easy for people to build and deploy things. We're going to have AI agents on social media doing a ton of different things. But crypto is kind of like one of the ways I think you can prove yourself as a human and prove, like, that things are actually unique in a way. And so I think crypto kind of plays a way in one, it's like not correlated to the AI stocks, Bitcoin and Zcash, as we talked about. But then two, it's like we're gonna need ways for people to know, like, what content online is attached to real people and, like, what is real. So I'm curious your guys' thoughts on that. I don't know.

38:03我自己研究很久還是覺得很難想像，像 IG 現在會自動標 AI 內容，AI 跟加密的交集可能要等更年輕的人來發揮。我現在看到動物影片都會被騙，朋友說那是 AI，我才發現真的分不出來。I've spent so much time trying to understand it, and I've talked to so many people. And I just keep coming away with, like, I don't know, it doesn't make any sense to me. Like, like, like literally, like every time it's like, yeah, we need to verify this. It's, you go on Instagram, you post AI content, and now it just has this algorithm that auto-tags it as AI, right? Like you're kind of just, I don't know, like I maybe I'm just not imaginative enough, but like I'm focused on AI over here and crypto over here, and like the intersection is— For somebody else to figure out. Not, not, not for me, dude. I feel like I'm too old. Like, I send videos to friends and they're like, That's AI. I'm like, Oh my God. Like, I can't believe I got got. Like, yeah, notice how, like, every video, his background's the exact same, his hair looks the exact same. Like, oh my God. Dude, the animal videos are what get me. Yeah, yeah. The end over is hilarious, bro. They're so good, but like, guy riding a dog as a skateboard, it's like, that can't be real.

39:00結語：市場未來與觀眾感謝

39:00好啦，時間差不多了，謝謝大家，今天聊得很開心，下次見！All right, guys, I think—yeah, I think we're at time. Thank you, audience. Thank you, guys. That was a great convo, and I'll see you guys later. Thanks, everyone. Appreciate it, guys.