Leo Zhang（42）解密市場的 TikTok 時刻：AI 代理人、極速市場與創作者經濟新未來
The TikTok Moment of Markets
- Leo Zhang 42 執行長
場次摘要
Leo Zhang 介紹 42 Protocol 如何結合代幣發行平台與預測市場，讓創作者建立事件型市場。他說明短期市場、品質評分及代幣權重的設計，並預期 AI 代理人可能成為市場建立者與參與者。
值得記下的 5 件事
逐字稿
TikTok 時代的市場啟示
大家好，我是 Leo，42 的創辦人。我們是一個為創作者、社群和 AI agent 打造的開放市場協議。今天我要聊的是「市場的 TikTok 時刻」。TikTok 最厲害的地方，就是讓每個人只要有一支普通手機，都能變成內容創作者。內容的生產成本幾乎是零，發佈成本也幾乎是零。My name is Leo. I'm the founder of 42, an open market protocol for creators, communities, and agents. So today I'm going to talk about the TikTok moments for markets. The crazy thing, the significant thing about TikTok is that it made everyone with a shitty phone into a content creator. The cost of production is practically zero, and the cost of distribution is almost zero as well.
這樣的結果是，內容的供給不再只來自大公司或大工作室。其實，金融市場也正在發生類似的變化。過去，資產發行是被嚴格把關的特權，但現在有了 launchpad，每天都有成千上萬個代幣被鑄造出來，然後很快就消失。資產發行已經不再是瓶頸了。So the consequence of that, the supply of content no longer exclusively comes from big studios. A similar pattern is happening for financial markets as well. In the past, asset issuance used to be a gated privilege, but now with launchpads, every day there are hundreds and thousands of tokens getting minted into the universe, and they just float there and die very quickly. So asset issuance is no longer a bottleneck as well.
內容與市場的交會：事件合約新型態
在內容與市場的交會點，出現了一種非常有趣的新型資產：事件合約。這些合約基本上就是你可以交易任何現實世界正在發生的事情。根據近年來預測市場交易量的爆炸性成長，可以看出大家對這類資產有極大需求，尤其是那些非標準化、能滿足特定避險或投機需求的市場。In the intersection of content and markets, there sits a very uniquely interesting asset type. These are event contracts. These are basically whatever you're trading, whatever is happening in the real world. So based on the meteoric rise of the volume on prediction markets in the recent years, there's clearly a voracious appetite for this kind of assets, these non-standardized markets that satisfy a specific hedging needs or certain speculative needs.
但目前這些市場的交易量高度集中在少數精選平台，主題也大多侷限在體育和少數政治事件。大多數有趣的長尾資產市場，應該是開放、原生於社群和 agent 的，卻還沒被建構出來。這也是我們設計 42 Protocol 的原因。However, the volume today, they're highly concentrated on curated platforms, and the topics are extremely concentrated in sports and few political events. And the vast majority of the things that's happening currently in the rest of the universe, these are not covered. The mass majority of the markets for interesting long-tail assets that are supposed to be short, open, and native for communities and agents, these are unbuilt. So we designed 42 protocol.
42 Protocol：每個事件都是市場
我們設計 42 Protocol，就是要解決這個問題。我們希望有一個開放市場協議，能滿足各種市場型態和多元參與者。這個設計目前市面上還看不到。在 42 上，每個事件就是一個市場，每個事件都是一個池子，每個結果都會以代幣形式發行。只要第一次鑄造，這個代幣就能立即交易，完全不需要造市商，也不需要訂單簿。We designed 42 protocol specifically to address this. We want an open market protocol to satisfy a wide range of market types and wide range of market participants. So the design is not something that you really see anywhere today. On 42, every event is a market, and on the event, every event is a pool, and every outcome is issued as a token through the pool. And upon the first mint, the token becomes immediately tradable, and it's liquid without market maker, without order book.
當事件結算時，市場就結束，贏家直接拿走整個池子的資產。這種設計結合了 launchpad 的資產發行特性，也有預測市場的結算機制。為什麼這很重要？因為加密產業已經非常擅長創造資產，網路上漂浮著數百萬個沒用的代幣，等著 rug。這種方式很沒效率，資本回收也很破碎，注意力被分散。And upon the settlement of the event, the market ends. The event closes, and the winning outcome simply takes the entire pool. So this has characteristics of asset issuance like a launchpad, and it also has characteristics of prediction markets in terms of how it settles. So why is this important? Why do we need something like this at all? This is because crypto has gotten extremely good at birthing assets, right? There are millions of useless tokens sitting floating on the internet and just waiting to rug. And it's a very inefficient way to recycle capital, and it's a very fragmented way to split attention.
預測市場與新型市場機制的結合
預測市場理論上很棒，因為它的結算完全依賴外部的 oracle，不受市場行為影響。但預測市場其實很無聊，不好玩。所以我們把 launchpad 的資產發行流程和預測市場的結算機制結合，創造出全新的東西。And prediction market sits on the other side of the spectrum. It's excellent in theory. An excellent way to settle a market because it's entirely external to the market action itself, and it's entirely external based on what the oracle dictates. However, prediction markets are really boring to trade. So therefore, we took the best of half. We took the beginning of the launchpad and the settlement mechanism of a prediction market to create something new.
42 Protocol 大約六個月前在主網上線，目前已經有六萬名獨立使用者，日均活躍使用者超過一千人，累積交易量三億美金。更酷的是，有 59% 的使用者在七天內會回來，這種留存率很少見，因為我們滿足了一群非常特定的使用者需求。42 was launched on Mainnet about six months ago, and since then we have about 60,000 unique users, on average daily user of over 1,000, and 300 million cumulative volume so far. So, and what's really cool is that about 59% of the users, they come back within the first seven days. And this retention is very unique because we're able to satisfy a very, very specific type of users and their needs.
極速市場與自我調節的長尾市場
目前 42 上最受歡迎的市場之一，是 30 秒超快價格市場，開盤、交易、結束都很快，沒有訂單簿，也沒有 LP 承擔損失。這類市場已經產生超過兩億美金的交易量，超過 61% 的使用者會一輪接一輪地交易。這種機制非常靈活，能支援極快的市場，也能支援大規模市場。So one of the most popular markets on 42 right now are these 30-second super rapid price markets, and they just open and they start and they close. No order book, no loss-bearing LPs. And these have produced about over 200 in trading volume so far. And the crazy thing is, over 61% of the users, they just trade round after round after round. So this mechanism is very flexible, and it's very good at supporting speed, very fast, rapid markets, and it's also very good at scale.
另一個經典案例是世界盃冠軍市場，這是一個持續數月的長期市場，只有一個池子，支援 50 個不同結果。沒有造市商、沒有 LP 承擔損失，所有結果會根據比賽進程自動調整價格，這完全是自發的行為。42 Protocol 就是為了同時支援速度與規模而設計的。So another hero's market was the World Cup winner market. So there was a long-running market that lasted for months, and it was a single pool and supported 50 outcomes. And there was, again, no market maker, no loss-bearing LPs, and the outcomes, they continuously repriced themselves based on the progression of the tournaments. And this is entirely self-emergent behavior. 42 is, we designed the 42 as a protocol that can support both speed and scale.
市場品質評分與原生代幣經濟
但讓每個人都能創建市場，只是解決了一半的問題。就像 TikTok 一樣，每個人都能拍影片，不代表每支影片都好看。市場也一樣，我們需要給市場經濟權重、評分，並根據品質分配流量。這時候 42 的原生代幣就派上用場了。But having an open protocol that allows anyone to create, you know, markets of various form is simply just half of the equation. Just because anyone can create a market doesn't mean that people can trade it. People want to trade it. This is, you know, just like TikTok. Just because everyone can, you know, film a piece of content doesn't mean it's pleasant to watch. So we need to assign economic weights. We need to rate these markets. We need to allow them to be distributed in a way that is correlated to their quality. So this is where the native token, protocol token for 42 comes in play.
這些代幣成為市場的經濟權重，任何人都可以用原生代幣為市場注入流動性。如果市場有不當行為，權重會被削減。市場被交易得越多，創建者分到的手續費就越多。這樣一來，代幣就成為評分和分配市場品質的經濟工具。So these tokens, they serve as the economic weight to these markets that are being created by anyone on the internet. And the creators, they seed the markets with various amount of these native tokens, and the misconduct gets slashed. And the more these markets get distributed, the more these markets trade, the greater percentage of the fee flow back to the market creators. So, this, in a market where anybody can create content, anybody can create markets, the tokens becomes the economic weights that rate them, that measures them, and that allow them to distribute in a way that's more appropriate to their quality.
創作者激勵與市場飛輪
我們預期每個市場部署者都會成為自己的推廣者。通常最接近資訊源的人，最有動機創建市場並推廣到正確的社群。傳統 launchpad 上，開發者的經濟誘因是把代幣賣給跟隨者，但我們希望創建者和市場參與者的利益能夠一致。市場交易越多，創建者分到的手續費就越高，這會形成一個代幣經濟飛輪。We expect that every deployer to also become a marketer themselves. The people who are usually the closest to a piece of information or the closest to a piece of news, they're the most financially incentivized to create these markets and distribute to the appropriate channels. So, on launchpads, the economic incentive, the way that the devs, they exit their position is by mostly dumping on the followers. But we want to make sure that the economic incentive is aligned with the creators and whoever they're distributing this market to. So the more that these markets trade, the greater a percentage of the fee revenue gets flowed back to the market creators themselves. And this creates the token flywheel for the market creation process.
任何有質押的人都可以為市場注入流動性，質押金額越高，市場評分越高、分配越廣。分配越廣，交易量越大，產生的手續費越多，回饋給初始質押者的收益也越多。這個循環讓代幣價值不斷累積。創建者不需要每次都贏，只要偶爾贏得大獎就好，所以創建者的收益是高度凸性的。Again, the seeding is done by anyone who has a stake, and the amount of the bond dictates how high the market gets rated and how well it distributes. And the better, the more it distributes. The better the volume it gets, and the more volume it induces, the more fee it generates, and the more fee it flows back to the initial seeders. So this loop creates the flywheel and accrues the value back to the tokens. The creators, they don't have to win every single market, but they just need to win big. So that's why the payout for the creators is extremely convex.
AI agent 與市場的未來
那誰會成為這些市場的創建者？我們看到越來越多 agent 參與金融市場，尤其是在鏈上，agent 已經成為執行端點。很多人用過 launchpad 都知道，現在幾乎被 bot 佔滿，未來只會更嚴重。隨著 agent 和 agent swarm 的進化，協作產生的複雜度會越來越高，責任也會從單純授權 session key，變成設定邊界、決定 agent 要交易哪些資產。So who's going to be these creators? And so we see more participation of agents in financial markets. We're seeing more and more agents serving as the execution endpoints on, especially on-chain. I'm sure a lot of you have this experience on a lot of launchpads. It's basically unusable because they're totally infested with bots. And this is going to get worse and worse from here. And as agents evolve, and also especially swarm of agents evolve, the amount of complexity that emerges from these coordinations is going to be more and more fascinating. And the kind of responsibility will evolve from today, where the user simply just delegates session key and sets some boundary decisions and decides on what kind of assets that the agents or the swarm agents to trade.
未來我們會看到更多 agent 之間原生的 agent-to-agent 交易。這些交易不是在現有的流動性場域上，而是 agent swarm 根據即時需求，為特定資產開市場。這很有趣，因為當大部分執行端點都是 agent 或 agent swarm 時，差異化不再是分析能力，而是誰擁有專屬資料、IP 或授權。這會產生全新、極速、難以定價的市場需求。We'll see that more native agent-to-agent commerce to emerge from these patterns. And so what do agents and agents trade against each other? I'm not talking about what's existing on liquid venues. I'm talking about emergent needs that doesn't quite exist, that only it makes sense for the swarm of agents who are looking for specific assets at the point. So why is this interesting? This is because when in a world where most of the execution endpoints are done by agents or coordinated swarms of agents, the differentiating factor, the asymmetry, is no longer the reasonal capabilities or amount of information that it can process. The analytical ability of traders to trader is more or less the same. It's all going to converge towards whatever the frontier model can offer. So what do agents miss? They don't have proprietary data, IP, or authorizations. So this creates a very interesting market needs, and these markets, they tend to be fast. They need to be created instantaneously, traded instantaneously, and settled instantaneously. And these markets are likely very difficult to price because they relate to specific IP or specific external resources that don't have very good index to support them.
未來市場協議的演化與願景
在這樣的世界裡，agent-to-agent 商業活動會蓬勃發展，我們需要能支援極高彈性、快速開市和交易的市場協議。這正是 42 Protocol 想要進化的方向。未來市場不再是永久存在、需要造市商維持訂單簿的東西，而是更快速、短暫、根據單一意圖誕生的 ephemeral 市場。例如，agent 可能只想避險未來七天的運算成本，或是避險 Blackpink 演唱會門票的價格。So, in that version of the world where agent-to-agent commerce flourishes, we need to have market protocol that can specifically support that kind of flexibility and allow these markets to open and trade very quickly. And this is how we want 42 to evolve into. So, yeah, agent-to-agent commerce is really, really interesting, and in that version of the world, you no longer have to think of market as a permanent construct that lives there and requires, you know, market makers to price the book. A lot of the markets, they will become more rapid, they will become more ephemeral, right? They originate from a single intent. It could be just agents looking to hedge against the compute cost over the next seven days. It could be the user of the agent looking to hedge the price of a Blackpink Concert ticket.
一旦有意圖，agent 或 agent swarm 就會掃描世界找資產，沒有就立刻開市場、立刻分發、立刻結算。市場本質上就是資訊懸賞，我們正處於一個資訊流動和處理方式大變革的拐點，市場機制也會隨之演化。我們希望把 42 Network 打造成未來創作者市場的基礎，讓任何人都能創建市場，每一筆交易都能回饋代幣價值，讓 agent 和 agent swarm 成為下一代創作者。So once the intent is there, the agent or the swarm scans the world for appropriate assets, and if it's not there, the market needs to be opened immediately and distributed to the appropriate channel immediately. And once that is done, it needs to settle and close immediately as well. And so markets, like inherently these are bounties for information, and we're at the inflection point where the information, how it gets traveled, processed, is not like anything we've ever seen before. So market mechanism will evolve accordingly as well. So we want to design 42 Network into a foundation for the future of creator markets. We want anybody to be able to create a market, and want every trade to feed into the value of the token, and we want the agents and the swarm of agents to be the next generation of the creators.
未來展望與結語
其實不管我們想不想，這一切都會發生。未來幾週或幾個月，我們會釋出更多關於下一步和代幣的資訊。謝謝大家！I mean, actually, sorry, it's going to happen regardless whether we want it or not. So anyways, we're going to release more information about the next step over the course of the next few weeks or months, and we're going to release more information about the token as well. So. Thank you.
