1kx Lasse Clausen：2026 基本面大勝比特幣，分潤才是王道

0:002026：基本面勝出的時代

0:00很高興能來到這裡。大家要專心聽，因為這場分享資訊量很大，內容密集。我們這次帶來的是研究成果，裡面有很多數據。希望大家能跟上，雖然內容有點硬，但我們會帶大家走一遍。主題就是：2026 年是基本面勝出的那一年。Pleasure to be here. I would say, listen up. This is quite a dense presentation. It's research that we're sharing. It's got a lot of data. Hopefully, it's a bit dense, but we do get away. We're saying that 2026 is the year that fundamentals outperform.

0:27這個話題其實在圈內討論很久了，大家都在問到底該投資有基本面的專案，還是去追 meme 幣、其他熱潮？看起來今年，基本面真的開始發揮作用，而且表現勝出。Finally, I think this has been an ongoing conversation in the space. You know, do you invest in fundamental value or do you invest in meme coins and other things? And it looks like this year is, we're on track that fundamentals are actually here to stay and they outperform.

0:46比特幣依然是王者，但輪動已結束

0:46先來個免責聲明，大家都懂的。對於在這產業待比較久的人來說，其實一直以來沒有人能打敗比特幣，比特幣就是王者。自從 2021 年高點以來，大約 85% 的大型代幣表現都輸給比特幣，市值超過一億美元的代幣，對比比特幣的中位數報酬是 -80%。所以比特幣還是王。Some disclaimers here. Those obligatory. I'm sure everyone is reading it. And so basically, you know, for anyone who's been in this industry for longer, nothing ever beat Bitcoin, right? Bitcoin is the king. And since the 2021 top, there's basically 85% of large cap tokens have underperformed Bitcoin, and the median return versus Bitcoin for every token above $100 million is minus 80% versus Bitcoin, right? So it seems like Bitcoin is king.

1:14這幾年我們經歷了一個牛市，但其實只是不同題材輪動。像 DePIN 很火，然後 AI 題材也表現很好，接著 meme 幣崛起。但每一波熱潮其實都只維持兩季，只有兩季真的跑贏比特幣。這種山寨幣的「假牛市」輪動，主要就是 DePIN、AI、meme 幣，到了去年第四季就結束了。And then we've had sort of a market, a bull market, and you had—but there were basically just rotations, right? You had DePIN was very hot, and it outperformed. Then you had AI, crypto AI was performing really well. Then you had meme coins, but basically each one of those only lasted two quarters. So only for two quarters did they actually outperform. And so we basically, this sort of quasi bull market for altcoins that had these two-quarter cycles, mainly DePIN, AI, and meme coins, that ended in Q4 last year.

1:50基本面強勢資產：分潤才是關鍵

1:50我們做了研究，想找出有機會長期領先比特幣的主題。結果發現，今年只有一種大型資產真的能打敗比特幣，就是那些會把價值分配給持有人的專案。這代表什麼？就是把鏈上收入、實際現金回饋給持有人，這些協議真的有賺錢、有穩定收入，然後把錢分給代幣持有人。And so we—Did some research and look for a theme, something that would hold a lead on Bitcoin. And so there is one trade of large caps that are beating Bitcoin in this year, and it's really one trade. They distribute value to their holders, and what that means is the paying holders returning on-chain revenue, so real money that protocol businesses are making, recurrent revenue that users and institutions, etc., are paying to use these services, and they're returning it to the token holders.

2:25我們看了超過 2,000 個協議，這些協議已經有鏈上收入。這些是真正的協議型生意，2025 年可追蹤的鏈上收入高達 750 億美元，包括手續費和其他收入。今年有超過 250 個專案、數位資產實際執行 buyback 和銷毀計畫。So we've looked at over 2,000 protocols, or 2,000 protocols already earn on-chain revenue. So these are what you could consult. Real protocol businesses, $75 billion in traceable on-chain income, traceable on-chain income in 2025, fees plus other income, and then over 250 projects, digital assets actually run buyback and burn programs in this year.

2:53分潤與質押的本質差異

2:53這裡有個很重要的區分：有些持有人的收入其實對持有人是稀釋的。最典型的例子就是質押收入。整體來說，這是零和遊戲，因為你要質押代幣才能拿到交易手續費和通膨獎勵，但這也代表沒質押的人會被稀釋。所以這種我們不算是分配給持有人的收入。And so here's a very, very important distinction is that. Some holder revenue is actually dilutive to holders. The best example is staking income, right? So overall, it's a net zero because I have to stake my token to earn transaction fees and particularly the inflation, but that also means that the inflation is diluting everybody else who is not staking, right? So that for us is not. Holder revenue distributed to token holders.

3:22我們定義真正分配給持有人的價值，是「持有人收入減去稀釋性發放」。進一步來說，最重要的指標就是「股息殖利率」——也就是分配給持有人的年化價值，還要跟市值做比較。And so what value distributed to holders is, is really it's the holder revenue minus the dilutive emissions. And then we refine that further into the dividend yield. That's really the important metric that ties all of this together. It's the value distributed annualized, but it's also in relation to the market cap.

3:43五年數據驗證：只有分潤殖利率有效

3:43我們用五年來的代幣報酬，測試了 60 種不同因子，包括基本面、手續費、手續費成長、收入、分配給持有人的價值、殖利率、代幣機制、銷毀機制、主要交易所上架、Blockworks 透明度框架、市值、產業敘事等等。這些特徵到底哪些真的讓數位資產跑贏比特幣？And now, we tested basically 60 different factors against five years of token returns: fundamentals, fees, fee growth, revenue, value distributed to holders, dividend yield, token mechanics, burn mechanics, major exchange listings, the Blockworks Transparency Framework, market cap. Sectors and narratives, right? So we ran analysis against all these other characteristics. Are these the things that actually make a digital asset outperform Bitcoin?

4:18還有統計上的嚴謹性。不幸的是，在我們這個產業裡，這並不常見。推特上有很多圖表流傳，但那些圖表可能是真的，也可能不是真的。所以，我們基本上做了兩個測試，採用了兩種不同的統計方法來驗證結果。接下來，我們要開始了，請大家準備好。And then also statistical rigor. Unfortunately, it's not very common in our industry. There's a lot of charts floating around on Twitter that may or may not be true. And so, you know, we basically did two tests, two different statistical methods to validate results. And here we go, get ready for this.

4:38殖利率超過 1% 的代幣大勝比特幣

4:38這張圖是各種因子對比比特幣的表現，x 軸和 y 軸是兩種統計方法。右上角的，就是在統計上顯著跑贏比特幣的因子。最明顯的就是「殖利率超過 1%」的代幣，也就是實際分配給持有人的淨收入佔市值超過 1%。這是最強烈的訊號，這些資產真的跑贏其他人。So basically, this is the performance against Bitcoin on both axes, and these are on the x-axis and on the y-axis is two different statistical methods. So you can basically see whatever is and the top right is, in a very statistically sound manner, is outperforming against Bitcoin. And really, the most sound one is that the dividend yield of a token is above 1%, which means the real net revenue that's being distributed back to holders relative to the market cap. If that's above 1%, that's the strongest signal that these assets are outperforming.

5:22這些代幣每季平均比比特幣多 7% 報酬，從 2025 年以來累積大約 45%。2026 年中位數表現比比特幣高 17%，這是自 2021 年以來，首次「發放股息」的代幣中位數表現勝過比特幣，+17%。And so those are beating the rest by seven percentage per quarter against Bitcoin, roughly 45% since 2025, and the median performance versus Bitcoin in 2026 is 17% this year. And this is the first time since 2021 that the median dividend payer beat Bitcoin this year. So it's plus 17%.

5:48無基本面的幣全面落後

5:48而最重要的是，這也是一個其他幣種——我們說那些沒有基本價值的——實際上大幅落後於比特幣的時期。因為這其實也是一個很大的新發現，或者說，我認為是一個非常正面的市場發展，因為過去常常會有一些隨機的幣種，毫無明顯原因地表現超越其他幣種。而在這個市場中，我們看到這種情況並沒有發生。那些沒有任何基本價值、沒有商業模式、沒有收入來源的隨機幣種，實際上並沒有隨機地超越比特幣或其他資產。And most importantly is that this is also a time where the others, let's say the ones without fundamental value, are actually massively underperforming Bitcoin. Because that is really also the big new insight, or the, I would say, very positive market development, because a lot of times you had random coins just outperform for really no apparent reason. And this actually we're seeing in this market that you do not have. Random coins actually, without any fundamental value, without any business model, without any revenue, actually randomly outperforming Bitcoin or other assets.

6:27所以最大重點就是，不只基本面強的幣贏過比特幣，其他幣也都輸給比特幣。其實美股 S&P 500 也有類似現象，高股息股票也跑贏其他股票。So that's basically the big insight, that not only is fundamentals beating Bitcoin, but everything else is also underperforming Bitcoin. Same thing actually happens also in the S&P 500 stock market. So high dividend stocks are beating the rest.

6:42哪些因子沒用？

6:42這裡還有一些不會預測超額表現的細節：代幣銷毀、手續費成長、手續費和收入的回饋。所以即使是大型中心化交易所的上架，也不代表會有超額表現。還有，特別是相較於市值而言非常高的激勵發放，對吧？也就是高通膨，這點其實比較明顯。整體來說，治理型代幣本身目前處境艱難。這就是我最後想補充的部分。Here's a few more details on things that do not predict outperformance: token burns, fee growth, fee and revenue revs. So even a major centralized exchange listing doesn't signal outperformance. And then particularly high incentive emissions relative to the market cap, right? So high inflation, that's kind of more obvious one. Broadly, governance tokens themselves having a tough time. And this is here for the end.

7:14規則型基本面指數大勝比特幣

7:14最有趣的是，我們自己做了一個規則型基本面指數，2026 年報酬率高達 82%，而比特幣卻下跌 5%。規則很簡單：每月再平衡、市值超過一億美元、每季殖利率超過 1%、依分配價值加權、單一代幣最高 20% 權重。Very, very interesting, maybe the most interesting, that a rules-based fundamental index that we created returned 82% in 2026 while Bitcoin fell, right? So we've got 82% versus minus 5%. Some rules here you can see: rebalance monthly, market cap over 100 million, dividend yield of more than 1% per quarter, and weighted by the value distributed for token holders, and it's a 20% cap per token in the index.

7:44這是第一次，基本面強的數位資產、協議型生意有了長期勝過比特幣的紀錄。我認為這是產業史上很重要的事件。從早期走到現在，這個洞見真的很關鍵。And so now it's the first year that fundamentally, actually, fundamentals, digital assets, protocol businesses. With fundamentals actually have a track record against Bitcoin, which we actually think is quite a historic event in the history of this industry. If you've been here since the early days, this is quite actually an insight.

8:03免費鏈上數據儀表板

8:03我的分享就到這裡，謝謝大家。如果你想看我們的收入儀表板，可以掃這個 QR code，裡面是即時數據。我們很自豪能提供最完整的鏈上數據，這背後清理資料真的很花功夫，而且全部都免費開放在我們網站，歡迎大家使用。謝謝！And that concludes my presentation. Thank you very much. If you would like to go to our revenue dashboard, you can scan the QR code here. It's live data. We do pride ourselves on providing actually the most robust on-chain data. It's a lot of work you need to do on cleaning it up, and it's all for free on our website for you to enjoy. Thank you.