Jupiter 營運長 Kash：每個人都是資產配置者的時代

0:00Jupiter 簡介與現場互動

0:00Jupiter，如果你還不認識我們，我們是目前最大、涵蓋多面向的鏈上金融超級應用。今年到目前為止，我們已經創造了大約兩億美元的總營收，交易量達到四千億美元。我們有超過十種產品，橫跨交易、賺取收益和資產管理等領域。不過在我繼續介紹 Jupiter 之前，我想先了解一下現場的大家，這樣也能讓我更好地說明接下來的內容。Jupiter, for people who don't know, we are the largest on-chain finance super app across multiple different dimensions. So far this year, we've done about $200 million in gross top-line revenue, $400 billion in volumes, and we have more than 10 products that power this across trading, earning, and managing assets. But before I talk more about Jupiter, I want to learn a little bit about this audience and see how people are, and that'll help kind of contextualize this.

0:36有多少人曾經在流動性池做過 LP？有用過 Meteora 的舉手？每個人都應該舉手啊，特別感謝這位朋友。看來現場有不少人有參與過。那有沒有人在鏈上做過 RWA 的槓桿套利？有幾位，這算是槓桿套利交易。那肯定也有人買過 meme coin 吧？看到大家有笑有苦，這就叫動能交易。其實我問這些問題，是因為你們過去幾年做的事情，其實就是傳統基金過去幾十年在做的事。How many of you have LP'd in a pool before? Yes. How many of you have used Meteora? Every hand should go up. Shout out to my guy here. All right, so a few folks have. That's good to hear. Some market makers in the audience then. Anyone here loop in RWA before on-chain? No? Oh, a few people, yeah. So that's a leverage carry trade, we might say. And surely some people here have bought meme coins. Any hands here? Yeah, all right. I see some smiling and sad faces on that one. Momentum trading, we might call that. The reason I ask these questions is because it's obvious in this room. That a lot of what you guys have been doing over the past few years is what traditional funds did for decades before, right?

1:15資產配置的時代來臨

1:15十年前，坐在筆電前像基金經理一樣操作，根本是天方夜譚，但現在已經變成日常。現場每一位，其實都已經是某種形式的資產配置者了。你們把自己的資本拿來追求最大化報酬，打造投資組合、尋找 alpha。這是一個巨大的改變。不過壞消息是，雖然這裡每個人都在做，但這個房間還是很小，世界很大。要讓鏈上金融真的 10 倍成長，還需要發生很多重大變化。Acting like a fund from your laptop is something that would have been unthinkable 10 years ago even, and now is a regular everyday occurrence. Everybody in this room right now is an asset allocator of some kind. You're taking your capital, you're trying to maximize returns, building a portfolio, and looking for alpha. And this is, again, is a major change. The bad news is, even if everyone in this room is, this room is small and the world is big. And in order for on-chain finance to really 10x from here, we need to see some major changes happening.

1:45好消息是，我們相信這些改變正在發生。Jupiter 今天的發展，就是基於兩個我們對未來的核心預測：第一，每個人都會成為資產配置者；第二，每一種資產都會上鏈。就像所有經濟預測一樣，這背後有需求面和供給面。接下來我會分別說明，看看能不能讓你們也相信我們的觀點。The good news is, we believe that those changes are happening, and we're building Jupiter today based on two fundamental predictions about where the world is going to go. The first one. Every person is going to become an asset allocator. The second is that every asset is going to come on-chain. Like all good economic predictions, it has a demand side and a supply side. So let's talk about each of these in turn and see if I can get you to believe like we believe.

2:12全球金融普及化與年輕化

2:12這是一個很驚人的數據：過去 15 年，全球有 20 億人開設了金融帳戶，主要發生在中低收入國家。這代表越來越多人能接觸到金融體系，而且速度比大家想像的還快。現在高收入國家和中低收入國家的金融普及率差距只剩 19 個百分點，未來五到十年內，這個數字會接近 95% 到 100%。資產配置不再是富裕國家的特權，而是全世界每個人都會做的事。隨著更多人進入金融市場、開始配置資產，對資產的需求也會持續上升。This is a crazy stat. In just the last 15 years, 2 billion people have opened up financial accounts, and largely this is happening in low- and middle-income economies. What this means is more and more people are getting access to the financial system, and it's happening faster than most people could have possibly realized, right? This gap is now just 19 points between high-income and low- and middle-income economies. We think that's going to continue to close going forward. In the next five to ten years, this number will be 95 to 100% across the entire globe. What this means is that allocating assets is no longer the privilege of wealthy countries, right? This is something that everyone is going to be doing. And as more people enter these financial markets and start allocating assets, the demand for assets continues to rise.

2:57不僅有越來越多人開始進行資產配置，原本就擁有資產的人，在這裡以美國為例，也開始更積極地主動參與資產配置的決策。你可以看到，在過去五十年裡，資產組成發生了劇烈的變化，現在有九成的勞工會自己選擇退休金的投資標的，而不是讓這些選擇自動由其他地方決定。當然，並不是每個人都會主動挑選單一股票，但他們確實把這件事當作需要自己關注的事情來看待。這才是真正需要理解的重點：人們希望自己掌握財務的主導權，而不是被動接受安排。這種主動配置資產的趨勢非常值得關注，同時也再次提升了資產配置方面的需求。Not only are more people coming on to allocate assets, those people who already have assets, in this example in America, are taking a more active hand in how they allocate those assets. So you can see over the last 50 years, the composition has changed dramatically, where now nine out of 10 workers are picking their own investments in their pensions instead of just letting this be automatically chosen elsewhere. Now, not every one of these people is, like, actively choosing single-name stocks, but they are actually treating it as something that demands their attention. And that's really the key piece to understand here. People want to be in the driver's seat rather than in the passenger seat for their own finances. This active allocation is a major trend that's worth paying attention to and increases, again, the demand on the asset allocation side.

3:44而且這一切發生得越來越早。現在，資產配置其實已經變成一種成年禮。人們購買第一檔共同基金的中位數年齡——這其實是一種相對低風險、無聊的投資——現在是23歲。更瘋狂的是，平均來說，一個人搬離父母家裡的年齡是25歲。所以人們其實在離開家之前，就已經開始建立自己的資產組合了。順帶一提，對於Z世代來說，有44%的人，他們的第一筆資產購買就是直接買入加密資產。所以我們會看到這個趨勢隨著時間持續增長。總結來說，越來越多人在做資產配置，他們對這件事越來越在意，而且開始得越來越早。所以需求只會不斷上升。And this is happening earlier and earlier. Now, allocating assets is actually becoming a rite of passage. The median age where people buy their first mutual fund, which is a relatively, you know, low-risk, boring kind of investment, is now 23. The crazy thing here is the average age at which someone will move out of their parents' basement is 25. So people are actually starting to build asset portfolios before they even leave the house. And, by the way, for Gen Z in particular, 44% of them, their first asset purchase is directly happening in a crypto asset. So we're going to see this continue to grow over time. To summarize here, more people are allocating assets. They care more about doing it, and they care earlier and earlier. So the demand is just going up and up and up.

4:30資產上鏈的供給革命

4:30這對金融市場當然是好事，但關鍵問題是：這些需求有多少會真正進到鏈上？這就要看供給面。我們相信每一種資產都會上鏈，現在已經有一些事實開始證明這點。這張投影片是我認為最重要的一張。過去 12 個月，加密貨幣價格其實波動很大，甚至多數時間是下跌的，但即使如此，真正的鏈上採用還是在持續成長。商品、私募信貸、公開股票、私募股權，這些資產在過去一年都以三位數的速度成長。這不是資產發行方追逐熱錢，而是全球 24/7 滿足需求的結構性轉變。But that's good for financial markets in general. The key question is how much of that actually comes on-chain, and that's why we have to look at the supply side. We believe that every asset is coming on-chain, and there's some facts that start to back this up. This is the most important slide in this deck, I will say. Over the last 12 months, maybe you noticed, crypto prices have not always been great. They've gone up and down. But despite the volatility, mostly to the downside on the prices, we are seeing real adoption continue to grow. Commodities, private credit, public equities, and private equities are all up by triple digits in just the last 12 months. This shows this is not asset issuers chasing hot money. This is a structural shift in how these asset issuers are trying to meet demand all over the world 24/7.

5:26我們認為這些趨勢將會以極大的規模持續增長，而這種資產代幣化將會隨著越來越多資產原生在鏈上交易，成為越來越重要的一環。這僅僅是個開始。代幣化股票顯然是一個重要的議題。我認為大家還沒有真正意識到這個議題有多大。在過去短短兩年內，鏈上股票公司數量從34家成長到1,800家。這個趨勢還在持續加速。我現在要做一個預測，雖然這有點冒險。我不知道我的攝影機在哪裡。但我真的相信，在接下來的五年內，全球每一家主要的股票都將能夠直接在鏈上交易。We think these trends are going to continue to grow in a massive way, and this tokenization is going to become a bigger and bigger part as more assets trade natively on-chain. This is just the beginning of that. Tokenized equities are obviously a major story. I don't think people understand just how big this story is. In just the last two years, we've gone from 34 companies with equity on-chain to 1,800 in just two years. And this trend is continuing to accelerate. I will make a prediction right now, which is a little bit dangerous to do. I don't know where my camera is. I do believe that in the next five years, every major equity across the world is going to be directly tradable on-chain.

5:54你可以把那段剪下來，如果我說錯了也可以一直拿來嗆我。這個趨勢就是一直往上走，顯然股票是大家想要配置資產時的主要標的之一。You can clip that and then spam me with it if I'm wrong as well. This trend is going up and up and up, and obviously equities are one of the major assets that people want to allocate into.

6:04其實不只股票，所有不同型態的基金結構都在鏈上發行。你可以看到各種不同的名字都直接在鏈上發行資產。整體來說，方向是對的。如果我們活在一個每個人都是資產配置者、每個資產都上鏈的世界，這就是鏈上金融能夠 10 倍成長的關鍵。這樣我們才能從總市值三兆美元成長到三十兆美元。Really, it's not just about equities. It's across all of these different fund structures. You've seen all of these different names issuing things directly on-chain as well. So things are moving in the right direction. If we are living in a world where every person is becoming an asset allocator, and we live in a world where every asset comes on-chain, that is how on-chain iFinance actually grows. This is where the 10x comes from, where we go from $3 trillion in aggregate market cap up to $30 trillion.

6:29Jupiter 的定位與鏈上金融的機會

6:29要讓這一切發生，你需要一個地方能交易所有這些無限多的資產，這就是 Jupiter 的角色。我們把自己定位成資產配置層，不管需求來自散戶、專業或機構投資人，無論想買什麼資產，都能在同一個地方完成。不只是買，還能用各種方式運用這些資產，等等我會再說明。這一切都是因為鏈上技術的變革才有可能。In order for this to work, though, you need a single place, a single venue to be able to trade all of these infinite assets, and this is where Jupiter comes in. We like to think of ourselves as the allocation layer, as some people would say, where wherever the demand is coming from, retail or professional or institutional, and whatever kinds of assets they want, they're able to buy it all in one place. And not just buy it, but actually use it in ways that I'll talk about. This is enabled by the shift that we're seeing with on-chain technology.

6:57過去想買資產，流程越來越窄，層層把關，最後只有極少數專業基金能隨時隨地買到任何資產。但現在只要上鏈，這個漏斗就不再收窄，任何有網路的人都能參與這個金融生態系。Jupiter 已經有來自 177 個國家的用戶，不需要開帳戶、沒有最低門檻，想買什麼都可以，無論是專案代幣、股票、商品還是 meme coin，都能用同一個餘額操作，隨時隨地 24/7 交易。這個 24/7 的特性會越來越重要。Buying these assets in the past, the funnel kept getting narrower and narrower as gatekeepers blocked each level. At the very bottom, the ability to actually buy any asset at any time from anywhere, an extremely small number of professional funds had access to that technology. When you come directly on-chain, the funnel stops narrowing. Now anybody with an internet connection can actually participate in this financial ecosystem. Anyone. Can buy anything at any time. Just on Jupiter, we have users in 177 countries already. There's no accounts you need to open. There's no minimums that need to be met. They can buy anything, as we're saying, a project token, a stock, commodity, a meme coin, all from the same single balance. And they can do it anytime as well. And this 24/7 piece is going to become more and more important.

7:40鏈上資產代幣化的現實與挑戰

7:40在這個產業裡有一個不太光彩的小祕密，我想你在很多演講中都不會聽到，但我今天、現在就要跟你分享。目前正在發生的許多資產代幣化，其實有點像是偽實用。如果你去 rwa.xyz，那是一個很棒的儀表板，你會看到大約有 3900 億美元的資產被代幣化。這個數字是大家都很喜歡慶祝、討論的，也是我們都愛看的圖表。然而，事實是，在這 3900 億美元當中，實際上只有大約 390 億美元是真正持有在鏈上的資產。其餘的只是價值的表徵，而不是價值本身。它不能被放在錢包裡，也不能被轉移。這中間有 90% 的落差。There is a dirty little secret in this industry that I don't think you'll hear in a lot of talks, but I will share with you today, right now. A lot of the tokenization that is happening currently is kind of pseudo-useful. If you go to rwa.xyz, which is a great dashboard, you'll see that there's about $390 billion in assets tokenized. This is the number that everyone likes to celebrate and talk about. This is the chart that we all love. However, the truth is, of that $390 billion, only about $39 billion is actually held in on-chain assets. The rest is just a representation of value, not the value itself. It can't be held in wallets, it can't be moved around. That's a 90% drop-off.

8:21還有一件更令人難過的事，如果你知道這些數字的話：目前實際在 DeFi 中被使用的這些資產，只有大約 40 億美元。這代表從現在已經被代幣化的資產，到實際在 DeFi 中被使用的資產之間，有 99% 的落差。And here's something that's even sadder, if you know the numbers: only about $4 billion of these tokenized assets are actually in use in DeFi. That's a 99% gap from what is tokenized today to what is actually being used in DeFi.

8:35事實是，資產代幣化只是第一步，真正重要的是「被用起來」。我們這個產業不能自滿於已經贏得代幣化戰爭，不管是在 Solana 還是其他鏈，還有很多東西要做，現在還很早。具體來說，以下是 Jupiter 正在思考、也建議現場 builder 們該關注的幾個方向。The truth is that tokenization is just the first step. Utilization is what actually matters. We as an industry cannot be complacent that we have won the tokenization war, whether that's on Solana or anywhere else. Much still must be built for us to be able to win this. The time is still early. Specifically, here are some things that we're thinking about at Jupiter that I think builders in the audience should be thinking about as well.

9:01鏈上金融基礎建設的未來

9:01在交易面，要讓資產真正被用起來，需要更好的去中心化驗證系統，能支援全球各地的資產規模化發行。還需要更深度的 RFQ（報價請求）產品，讓全球做市商隨時能接入、滿足需求。還有更高品質的資產證明與監控，現在很多 RWA 你買下去，其實底層資產狀況不透明，需要更好的系統來建立信任，讓這些資產真的能在鏈上被買賣、被投資。On the trading side, if we want to see utilization actually happen, we need to see better verification systems that are decentralized, that can support assets across the world at scale. We need deeper RFQ products that allow market makers anywhere in the world to plug in and serve that demand at any time that it might be spinning up. And we need a higher quality attestation and monitoring. The truth is, a lot of these RWAs that you're buying on-chain right now, not super clear what is actually underneath, right? We need better systems here that build trust and make these things actually buyable and actually investable directly on-chain.

9:32這只是交易面。第二個重點是「賺取」面。怎麼讓可交易資產變成可質押、可生息的生產性資產？需要更深的借貸市場。我認為鏈上借貸現在的發展階段，就像三到五年前的鏈上交易，技術有了、基礎元件也有了，但流動性還沒到位，還有很多要努力的地方。我們也需要專業管理的 vault（資產池），更高品質的 vault 管理和軟體，讓專業人士能幫這波新用戶分散風險、配置資產。That's just the trading side. The second major piece is on the earning side. How do you take an asset that can be traded and make it a productive asset that can be collateralized? Well. You need deep lending markets. I believe that on-chain lending is still where on-chain trading was three to five years ago. The tech is there, the primitives work, but the liquidity is not yet there. We have a lot of work to go to be able to build this up. We also need professionally curated vaults. We need higher quality vault management, higher quality vault software. These vaults allow professionals to actually allocate risk on behalf of this increasing demand of all these people that are coming on-chain and wanting to allocate into these assets.

10:10最後，也是可能最重要的一點，我們必須解決這個即時循環的問題。如果你有一個代幣化基金，假設年化報酬率是9%，而且它需要T+1結算，那麼如果你想要透過循環操作來把你的收益放大九倍，進場就要花九天，出場也要花九天。這樣總共會有18天的延遲。這樣的產品體驗，根本無法擴展到我們需要的數千億規模。所以，我們必須解決RWAs的即時循環問題。And finally, and possibly most importantly, we have to solve this instant looping problem. If you have a tokenized fund that's paying, whatever, 9% APY, and it takes a T plus one settlement, in order to loop it up and amplify your yield nine times, it'll take you nine days on the way in and nine days on the way out. That's an 18-day lag. This is not a product experience that is going to really scale to the hundreds of billions that we need to get it to. So we have to solve this instant looping of RWAs.

10:36管理面也很重要，我們需要建立 KYC 與身份系統，讓用戶能在匿名、無許可帳戶和有 KYC 的帳戶間切換，取得想要的 RWA 資產。還要有高品質的投資組合工具，讓大家知道自己的錢在哪裡。很遺憾，大多數人其實還是不知道。最後，鏈上出入金（on/off-ramp）還是太貴、太慢、太難用，這一塊還有很大進步空間。Finally, on the management side, we need to build KYC systems and identity systems that actually allow people to switch between an anonymous permissionless account and a permissioned KYC'd account that gives them access to whatever tokenized RWAs they want access to. High-quality portfolio tools so people actually know where their money is. Most people don't. And it's sad to say this, we still need high-quality on and off-ramps. It is still too expensive, too slow, and too difficult to get money in and out of crypto these days.

11:05Jupiter 的願景與總結

11:05好消息是，Jupiter 正在這九大領域全面佈局。如果你對我們的未來感到興奮，歡迎持續關注，我們會在後代幣化時代扮演關鍵角色。最後時間快到了，幫大家總結一下：我們相信每個人都會成為資產配置者，主動配置資產的需求會持續成長。我們相信每一種資產終將上鏈，但要讓這些資產真正發揮作用，必須讓它們能在鏈上金融被實際運用。如果你覺得這段話太長，我有更簡單的版本：我們還在很早期。The good news is, Jupiter is building across every single one of these nine areas. And if you're very excited to see where we're going, I'd say follow along, and you'll see that we're going to be playing a major role in the post-tokenized world. So, as my time is starting to run out, a little TLDR for everyone here. We believe every person will become an asset allocator. The demand for actively allocating into assets will continue to grow. We believe that every asset will come on-chain eventually, but for those assets to actually work, we need to be able to put them to work and have utilization directly in on-chain finance. Or, if that's too many words for you, I got something even shorter, which is: we are still early.

11:44如果你想知道 Jupiter 正在做什麼，現在就下載 Jupiter Mobile 吧！這是目前最棒的應用程式，能讓你隨時掌握交易、賺取收益和管理代幣化資產的最佳體驗。謝謝大家！If you are interested in seeing what Jupiter is doing, please try downloading Jupiter Mobile right now. It is the best app. You'll stay up to date with what is going to be the best experience for trading, earning, and managing tokenized assets as they come on. Thank you very much.