Jamie Coutts（Real Vision）解析加密「回報時代」：資本紀律與需求爆發的交會點

0:00市場熱度與供需兩面

0:00TOKEN2049 現場氣氛超級樂觀，大家都在討論區塊空間需求的成長動能。這些需求是真的，包括 AI agents 和資產代幣化。未來幾天你會聽到很多相關話題，但我今天想談的是另一面，也就是供給端。TOKEN2049. Everyone's pretty bullish. Let's face it. Everyone's talking about the big demand drivers for blockspace. And these demand drivers are absolutely real. We have AI agents and tokenization. Now you're going to hear a lot about that over the next couple of days. This presentation is not necessarily about that. This presentation is about the other side of the equation, the supply side.

0:43好，讓我們回顧去年的 TOKEN2049。當時大家都非常看多。所有的簡報內容都是只會上漲。然後，結果發生了什麼事？市場下跌了 50%、60%。除了 Bitcoin 以外，大多數代幣跌得更慘。所以，這次修正或熊市是有很充分的理由的。你可以看到全球流動性正在收緊。去年第四季，美國聯準會還在縮減資產負債表。你也可以看到 Binance 清算事件，這直接讓市場崩盤。當時還有資金從加密貨幣市場撤出，去追逐 AI 交易的報酬，這也是有很充分的理由。AI 是我們所見過最具變革性的技術。Well, let's go back to last year, TOKEN2049. Everyone was pretty bullish. All the presentations were up only. And of course, what happened? The market fell 50, 60%. Most tokens outside of Bitcoin fell a lot more than that. And so there were very good reasons why we had that correction or bear market. You can look at global liquidity that was tightening. In Q4 of last year, the Fed was still tightening its balance sheet. You can look at the Binance liquidation fiasco, which totally nuked the market. There was also liquidity that was being pulled out of crypto at that time that was chasing returns in the AI trade, for very good reason. AI is the most transformative technology we have ever seen.

1:32但關於加密貨幣這件事，我們往往習慣向外看，很少會向內檢視，思考究竟是哪些因素導致了坦白說，過去幾年加密資產領域的投資報酬令人失望。But the thing about crypto is that we tend to look outwards, and rarely do we look inwards as what are the drivers that have caused, quite frankly, several years of disappointing returns for assets in the crypto space.

1:50供給過剩與代幣經濟學問題

1:50我 2022 年進入這個圈子，一直以來都偏好持有 Bitcoin。對於 altcoins，我一直很難下手，因為它們的供給機制和代幣經濟學讓我完全看不懂。這幾年，代幣價值很少回饋到持有者，供給嚴重過剩，代幣一直被印，團隊和代幣之間也常常利益不一致，導致投資人失望。Now, for me, I came into the space in 2022. And I've always held a very Bitcoin-dominant portfolio. And the reason why I've struggled with altcoins is that the supply schedule, the tokenomics never made any sense to me at all. We've had very little token or value accrual to the underlying token throughout those years. We've had massive oversupply. You know, we've been printing tokens. There was misalignment between the token and the team or the company behind the token. And of course, we had the disillusionment of the investor base because of that.

2:38所以我個人之所以現在比以往任何時候都還要看好這個產業，並不是單純因為我看到需求從現在開始會大幅上升——雖然在我看來，這絕對會發生，而且已經開始了。真正的原因是，這是加密貨幣歷史上第一次，我們看到了我所謂的「資本紀律」。也就是供給端的限制，以及更好的代幣經濟學。而這，女士們先生們，就是我所說的加密貨幣的「回報時代」。So the reason why I personally am as bullish as I have ever been. Since I came into this space, it's not necessarily because I see demand inflecting higher from here, which it is, in my view, absolutely going to do, and it's already started. It's because for the first time in crypto's history, we are seeing something which I call capital discipline. That is supply-side constraint. And better tokenomics. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what I call crypto's payback era.

3:15經濟學基本面與供需失衡

3:15現在，也許就像在座的一些人一樣，我懷疑如果你是在金融業，你可能在大學時浪費了幾年時間學經濟。我自己確實如此，而且我花了一輩子的時間，試著把我所學到的幾乎所有東西都忘掉。但經濟學裡有一件事，以及一些歷久不衰的觀念或理論，至今仍留在我心中，那就是需求與供給。所以，當一項商品或服務的需求增加，而供給維持不變時，價格就會上升。現在，在加密貨幣領域，我們知道供給並沒有維持不變，供給一直在不斷擴張。這張圖表是前200大指數，這是我和一個叫Bitformance的團隊一起創建的指數。也要特別感謝Bitformance的Matt。Now, maybe like some of you here, I suspect if you're in finance, you wasted a couple of years at university studying economics. I certainly did, and it's taken me an entire lifetime. To try and unlearn pretty much everything that I was taught. But the one thing about economics and some of the evergreen notions or theories have stayed with me, and that is demand and supply. So what happens when demand for a good or service increases and the supply stays fixed? The price increases. Now, in crypto, we know that supply has not stayed fixed. Supply has been constantly expanding. This chart here is the top 200 index. It's an index I created with a team called Bitformance. Shout out to Matt at Bitformance.

4:09我們透過 API 為散戶投資人創建了一整套加密貨幣指數。這是等權重前 200 指數。自 2021 年 1 月以來，等權重前 200 指數上漲了 56%。同一期間，代幣的流通供給增加了 78%。We've created a whole raft of crypto indices for retail investors through API. This is the equal-weighted top 200. The equal weighted top 200 is up 56% since January 2021. In that time, the circulating supply of tokens is up 78%.

4:27如果你把 2021 年那種因為疫情而過度寬鬆的流動性環境排除掉，2022 到 2025 年的牛市其實很讓人失望。市值指數雖然上升，但前 200 大資產中，只有少數真的跑贏 Bitcoin。原因之一就是供給一直增加。我們要問，為什麼加密貨幣表現不如預期，甚至不如需求成長？Now, if you remove the 2021 excess liquidity environment when our central planners, in all their wisdom, pumped the market with excess liquidity because of the COVID. Insanity and response. That was a distortion of crypto markets from intrinsic value. But nevertheless, the 2022 to 2025 bull markets disappointed. The market cap index went higher, market cap went higher, but only a handful of assets out of the top 200 actually outperformed Bitcoin. Why is that? One of the reasons is that Supply was constantly increasing. So we have to ask ourselves, what's the full picture? Why has crypto underperformed versus expectations and, importantly, versus increasing demand?

5:22以太坊啟動新時代與技術突破

5:22所以我一直以來的想法，因為這個問題困擾我很久了，就是我們一直把加密貨幣，整個加密市場，當作是一個階段或一個過程來看待，而這一切其實是從 Ethereum 開始的。現在這樣說可能會冒犯所有熱愛 Bitcoin 的人。我自己也很愛 Bitcoin，Bitcoin 也是我持有最多的資產。但事實上，加密貨幣時代真正的開端，是從 Ethereum 開始的。那才是起點。智慧合約，以及第一個智慧合約平台。幾年之後，DeFi 應用出現了。那時我們才開始理解，其實我們可以在區塊鏈基礎設施上建立一個全球金融體系。但到了 2021 年，很明顯地，這項技術在那個階段無法擴展。無法擴展到能夠滿足全球金融需求的程度。And so the way I've thought about this, because it's been troubling me for quite some time, is we've thought about the crypto, well, the entire crypto market as being a stage or a process, which really started with Ethereum. Now, I'll offend everyone who loves Bitcoin. I love Bitcoin. Bitcoin is my largest position. But really, the start of the era of crypto started with Ethereum. That was the genesis. Smart contracts. And the first smart contract platform. Years later, DeFi applications. That's when we started to understand that actually we could build a global financial system on blockchain rails. But by 2021, it became very apparent that this technology would not scale at that point. Could not scale to meet the demands of global finance.

6:21所以整個產業都團結起來面對這個問題。我們要如何擴展區塊鏈？我們要如何提升互操作性？我們要如何降低摩擦？而且幾乎是以一種極度專注的方式，他們基本上解決了這個問題。2021年，風險投資有360億美元投入到主要解決這個特定問題上。你猜怎麼著？我們現在就在這裡，而且我們已經解決了大部分這些問題。雖然不是全部，但像互操作性、摩擦這些問題。2021年，Ethereum 一筆交易要價10美元，現在已經降到4美分。Solana、Sui，它們的交易費用都低於1美分。現在我們開始看到全球金融正逐步上鏈。So the whole industry rallied behind the problem. How do we scale blockchains? How do we improve interoperability? How do we decrease the friction? And in an almost, you know, in this hyper-focused way, they basically solved the problem. $36 billion was invested from venture capital in 2021 into solving predominantly this specific problem. And guess what? Here we are. And we have solved most of those issues. Not all, but interoperability, friction. Ethereum cost $10 a transaction in 2021. It's now down to 4 cents. Solana, Sui, they're all under 1 cent. Now we're starting to see global finance move on-chain.

7:06但這裡的問題在於，這個產業過於專注於解決技術層面的問題，導致實際的代幣本身反而被忽略了。你看，這不只是貪婪的創投和貪婪的創辦人造成的，雖然這當中確實有很多這樣的情況。真正讓這些事情發生的，是當時缺乏監管機制，以及美國政府和監管機關對這個產業、對這項技術抱持敵意的環境。所以在這樣的情況下，我們仍然有一個自由且開放的市場，以及市場機制。市場開始正視這個問題，也開始著手解決代幣本身以及其表現不佳的問題。But the problem here was that the industry was so focused on solving the technology issue that the actual token itself was an afterthought. And look, it wasn't just greedy VCs and greedy founders, although there was certainly a lot of that. It was the conditions that allowed that to happen, which was the absence of regulatory oversight and actually a hostile U.S. administration and regulatory authorities to the industry, to the technology. So when you have that situation, we still have a free and open market and market forces. Started to look at the problem, and have started to solve the problem of the token itself and the underperformance.

7:56資本紀律與需求拐點

7:56接下來進入下一個階段。到了2025年，因為我們有了新的政府團隊，因為我們有了新的SEC和新的CFTC，我們開始看到資本紀律的出現。在加密貨幣領域中，有些是被動的，但也有些是主動的。那這是什麼意思呢？你開始看到協議開始在股權和代幣之間進行對齊。你開始看到一些回購代幣、價值累積機制的倡議。同時你也開始看到供給紀律的出現。這就是我今天在這裡提出的看漲公式的第一部分。Moving on to the next stage. By 2025, because we had a new administration, because we had a new SEC and a new CFTC, we started to see the emergence of capital discipline. Within crypto, some of it passive, but some of it proactive. And what do I mean by that? You started to see protocols starting to align between the equity and the token. You started to see initiatives to start buying back tokens, value accrual mechanisms. And you also started to see supply discipline. Now, that is the first, that's the first part of the bullish formula which I'm proposing here today.

8:43第二個是需求拐點。因為我們打造了這個系統，因為我們讓這個系統擴展起來，現在我們可以收穫這些努力的成果。這就是需求拐點。現場每個人都在討論資產代幣化。我們即將看到數兆資金在鏈上流動，也會看到全新的經濟參與者從過度建設的運算資源中誕生，那就是剛開始出現的 AI 智能代理。這兩者結合，為加密產業帶來一個全新的時代，我稱之為「回報時代」。The second is the demand inflection. Because we built the system, because we scaled the system, now we can have the fruits of that labor. Which is demand inflection. Everyone here is talking about tokenization. We're going to see trillions move on chain, and we're going to see a whole new economic actor emerge from the overbuild of compute, which is AI agents that are just starting to appear. This combined gives us a new era in crypto, which I call the payback era.

9:23供給紀律與價值回饋機制

9:23當我們談到資本紀律時，我指的是兩件事情。我們先從第一件事開始，也就是供給紀律。這裡的黃色線代表的是前200大流通供給的年化通膨率。在2021年，這個數字達到高峰，來到21%、26%。那是加密貨幣市場的通膨高峰。當你在那個市場買進時，通膨率高達26%，有大量新代幣進入市場。從那之後，通膨率已經下降到3.3%。請看白色線，這是前200大市值指數。過去五年來，這條線幾乎沒有動。沒錯，比特幣創下新高，但過去五年，只有極少數資產有這樣的表現。通膨正在下降。那麼，從這裡我們可以得到什麼啟示呢？This is, when we talk about capital discipline, I'm talking about two things. We'll start with the first thing, which is supply discipline. The yellow line here is the annualized inflation rate of circulating supply of the top 200. In 2021, it peaked. At 21, 26%. That was peak inflation in crypto. When you were buying in that market, 26% inflation, new tokens coming on board. Since then, inflation has dropped to 3.3%. Look at the white line. This is the top 200 market cap index. It has gone nowhere for five years. Yes, Bitcoin made new highs, but very few assets did over the last five years. Inflation is coming down. Now, what can we draw from this as insights?

10:16你看，這不是一個完美的比喻，但我認為這裡有一個訊號。上一次我們看到通膨減緩的時期，正是股票最看漲的背景。在1980年，通膨率達到大約16%的高點。Volcker帶領聯準會進場，大幅調升利率。市場進入熊市，經濟陷入衰退。兩年內，市場毫無起色。而接下來的18年，我們經歷了有史以來最強勁的多頭市場。S&P指數漲了13倍。當然，這不只是因為通膨下降，雖然這是很大的一部分。我們還有生產力提升、科技進步、放寬管制、人口結構變化。重點是，通膨減緩的背景對資產價格是有利的。Look, this isn't a perfect analogy, but I think there's a signal here. The last time we saw a disinflationary regime, it was the most bullish backdrop for equities. In 1980, inflation peaked at around 16%. Volcker came in with the Fed, jacked up rates. The market went into a bear market. The economy went into recession. For two years, it went nowhere. And for the next 18 years, we had the greatest bull market we had ever seen. The S&P rallied 13 times. Now, of course, it wasn't just because inflation dropped, although. It is a large part of this. We had productivity improvements, we had technology, we had deregulation, we had demographics. The point being is a disinflationary background is good for asset prices.

11:06如果你思考加密貨幣，並且想到通膨率曾經高達26%，現在已經降到3%，我剛剛忘了提到解鎖。部分的通膨來自於通膨獎勵所產生的流通供給，但也有一部分來自於解鎖。過去，解鎖佔每年新增供給的14%到15%，現在已經降到大約4%，這是因為很多協議已經完成了他們的歸屬期。所以，當你把這些因素加總起來，你可以看到加密貨幣的前景正在開始改善。If you think about crypto and you think about inflation running at 26%, now down to 3%, I forgot to mention unlocks. Part of that inflation is the circulating supply through inflation rewards, but also unlocks. Unlocks used to account for 14 to 15% of the annual new supply coming on. It's now down to about 4%, and that's because a lot of the protocols have finished their vesting. So, when you put that together, you can see the case for crypto is starting to improve.

11:40現在，供給只是在解釋價值的流失。這並不代表代幣一定會上漲。你還需要的是，必須有一些機制，能夠讓價值回流到代幣本身。這個代幣必須具備類似股票的特性。是什麼讓我們會投資股票？我們會獲得回報。我們會有收入來源。我們會因為公司回購而感受到稀缺性。所以我開始追蹤這些數據，在過去幾年裡，我們看到越來越多協議開始啟動價值回流的機制。事實上，在2021年，只有十五分之一的協議會這麼做。現在這個比例已經提升到五分之一。Now. Supply only explains the leakage of value. It doesn't mean token has to go up. What you need as well, you need to have mechanisms that accrue value back to the token. The token needs to take on the properties of an equity. What makes us invest in equities? We get a return. We get an income stream. We get scarcity because they do buybacks. So I started tracking the data, and in the last couple of years, we have seen a huge improvement in the number of protocols that are initiating value accrual mechanisms. In fact, in 2021, only one in 15 would do this. Now it's up to one in five.

12:26這一直是市場力量的結果，散戶對這個資產類別表現不佳感到非常不滿，即使需求在增加，因為缺乏價值累積，因為有各種不正當行為，協議本身與背後團隊之間也存在利益不一致，而這種情況現在開始有所改變。Now this has been This has been a result of market forces, retail getting completely pissed off with this asset class not performing, even though demand was increasing, because there was lack of value accrual, because there were shenanigans, there was misalignment between the protocols and the teams behind the protocols, and that is starting to change.

12:51如果我們看看過去12個月返還給代幣持有者的現金總額，大約是20億美元。這包括回購、銷毀和質押獎勵。當然，其中有些方式比其他方式更具永久性。銷毀和回購並不一樣，但這些方式對於將價值回饋給基礎代幣來說，都是正面的。圖表上的這條線，黃色這條線，就是實際報酬率。這條線計算的是持有者從這些價值回饋機制中獲得的報酬，減去新發行的供給。過去這個數字曾經是負17%、負20%。現在已經降到負3%以下。資本紀律加上新的需求或需求的增加正在縮小這個差距。當你看看前200大代幣中，有17%現在是通縮的。這在過去從未發生過。If we look at how much cash is being returned to token holders, it's about $2 billion in the last 12 months. That's buybacks, that's burns, that's staking rewards. Now, some of that is more permanent than others. A burn is not the same as a buyback, but it all is positive in terms of accruing value back to the underlying token. The line here on the chart, the yellow line, is the real return. This line is calculating what holders are paid in those value accrual mechanisms minus the new supply that's coming on. It used to be negative 17, 20%. It's now under negative 3%. Capital discipline plus New demand or increasing demand is closing that gap. When you look at the number of tokens in the top 200, 17% now are deflationary. That's never happened before.

13:53需求爆發：代幣化與 AI 經濟體

13:53當然，即使你已經有了資本紀律，如果沒有人真的想要或正在使用這些服務，或是沒有人在消耗區塊空間，那也沒有意義。每一個重要的指標現在都是持續向上，而且有些指標的增長幅度比其他的還要大。真正重要的那些，都是跟資產代幣化有關的。像是實體資產代幣化、穩定幣、股票代幣化，這些都在爆炸性成長，而且這才剛剛開始而已。 當然，我們現在也有了新的經濟行為者——AI代理人。我們知道，AI代理人消耗的代幣數量是人類的五到七倍。我們也知道，就代理人支付來說，現在還非常非常早期。X402，這個代理人對代理人的支付協議，今年整年都非常低調，說實話。And of course, once you have capital discipline, it doesn't matter unless people actually want or are using. The services, or are consuming the block space. Every single metric that matters is up and to the right, and some more than others. The ones that really matter are the ones that have to do with tokenization. Tokenized real-world assets, stablecoins, equities, they are exploding, and it's only just started. And of course, we have the new economic actor. We have AI agents. We know that AI agents are consuming between five to seven more tokens than humans. We also know that in terms of agentic payments, it is very, very early. X402, the agent-to-agent payment protocol. Has been very quiet all year, let's face it.

14:53截至八月，這個的交易價值大約是一百萬美元。但當你考慮到正在發生的變化、正在發布的公告，例如 Cloudflare——它佔了大約 20% 的網路流量——啟用 X402，讓網站可以因為 API 呼叫而獲得報酬。你在這裡右手邊、右側所看到的數字，是它有史以來最低的。It's doing about a million dollars in transaction value as of August. But when you consider the changes, the announcements that are being made, Cloudflare, which represents about 20% of web traffic, enabling X402 so websites can get paid for API calls. The number that we see on the right-hand here, on the right side, is as low as it ever will be.

15:16我們談貨幣流通速度（monetary velocity），只要沒有惡性通膨，流通速度越快對經濟越好。未來我們會看到所謂的『機器流通速度』，也就是貨幣流通速度的平方。當這些 AI 經濟體開始運作、透過 X402 等協議流動時，這就是我看好加密貨幣的公式。We've talked about monetary velocity, how fast money moves through the economy. As long as we're not seeing hyperinflation, monetary velocity going up is extremely bullish for an economy. We are going to see something called machine velocity, which is monetary velocity squared. Once these economic actors are funded and start moving through protocols like X402. So there, ladies and gentlemen, is the formula for why I am bullish on crypto.

15:48價值重心與基本面投資

15:48這不只是我們正在打造這個全球金融系統這件事而已。如果你沒有來自生態系統內部協議的紀律，如果你沒有一致性，那麼你就無法讓代幣成為價值的核心、所有價值累積的重心。最終，你只會得到另一個這個資產類別在接下來幾年表現不佳的情況。但我們現在看到的並不是這樣。我們正在見證真正的根本性改變。讓我們來看看數據。我是一名分析師，我建立量化模型。事實是，從2022年到2025年，最令人沮喪的事情就是，作為一個基本面投資人，你在加密貨幣領域並沒有獲得報酬。It's not just about the fact that we're building this global financial system. If you don't have the discipline from the protocols inside the ecosystem, if you don't have the alignment. So that's making the token the center of value, the center of gravity for all value accrual. Then what you'll end up is another situation where this asset class really underdelivers over the next couple of years. But that's not what we're seeing. We are seeing real fundamental change. Let's take a look at the data. I'm an analyst. I build quantitative models. And the reality is, from 2022 to 2025, the most frustrating thing was that you did not get paid in crypto to be a fundamental investor.

16:41我建立了很多方法，試圖根據基本面來建立或挑選這個領域的資產。這也是為什麼直到最近我都非常、非常重倉持有比特幣的原因。這裡有一個例子可以說明我的意思。白色線條代表的是市值指數，基本上就是比特幣、Ethereum、Solana 以及其他大型加密貨幣的代表。從 2022 年以來，這個指數上漲了 10%。這不是一個很好的報酬率，但至少是上漲的。如果你投資於一個簡單的系統，也就是只投資那些實際產生手續費、實際有某種商業模式的代幣，那麼和你投資於前 200 名、但沒有手續費收入的代幣相比，結果其實沒有什麼差別。I built lots of ways to try and build or pick assets in the space based on fundamentals. And it is the reason why I stayed very, very heavy on Bitcoin until recently. And this is an example of what I'm talking about. The white line is the market cap index, which is basically a proxy for Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana, and the large caps. Now over the last, well, since 2022, that index is up 10%. Not a great return. But it's up. If you had invested in a simple system which said, I'll only invest in tokens that actually generate fees, you know, actually have some sort of business, it made no difference to investing in the tokens in the top 200 that had no fees.

17:32所以想想看。如果你投資在前200大的資產，這些資產有低通膨、低稀釋，你其實不會表現得比較好。這一點沒有差別。但去年有些事情改變了。當你開始篩選那些手續費成長、代幣價值累積更好、供給量低的資產時，它們開始表現得更好。現在今年，它們的表現已經大幅飆升。So go figure. If you invested in the assets in the top 200, That had low inflation, low dilution. You wouldn't have been better off. It made no difference. But something changed last year. When you started screening for assets with growing fees, better token accrual, low supply, they started to outperform. Now this year, they have exploded higher.

18:02品質因子與策略驗證

18:02今年，如果你投資於一個簡單的基本面代幣組合，並且只用一個簡單的基本面標準，比如說：「嘿，這個代幣實際上有賺錢嗎？」那麼這個組合的表現會超越比特幣，或者比大型市值指數多出11%。所以，在 Real Vision，我們正在建立一個品質過濾器。現在，如果你是股票投資人，你應該對「因子」這個概念很熟悉。因子是一種根據股票特性來定義股票的方法。有人是價值型投資人，他們尋找低估值的標的；有人是成長型投資人，他們關注營收成長的公司；也有動能型投資人，他們純粹依據價格走勢操作；還有一些投資人會看投資資本報酬率、股東權益報酬率這類指標，他們會把自己定義為品質型投資人。This year, if you invested in a simple fundamental basket of tokens with a simple fundamental criteria like, hey, does this token actually make any money? Then it would have outperformed Bitcoin or outperformed the large cap index by 11%. So, at Real Vision, we're building a quality filter. Now, if you're an equity investor, you're familiar with factors. Factors are a way of defining stocks based on their characteristics. People are value investors. They look for low valuations. People are growth investors. They look at Companies that are growing their top line. There are momentum investors, which are using purely price, and there are investors that look at things like return on investment capital, return on equity. They would define themselves as a quality investor.

19:01這個因素同樣適用於加密貨幣，並且已經開始在數據中顯現出來，事實上你會想要持有那些具有高品質特性的資產。那在加密貨幣領域這到底代表什麼意思？你必須尋找那些真正能夠產生手續費收入的資產，而且這些手續費收入必須是可持續的。你要尋找那些具有強大價值累積能力的資產，也就是說，他們的代幣經濟政策是正面的；同時你還要尋找那些流通供給相對較低的資產。如果你挑選一籃這樣的資產，做多排名前面的，做空排名後面的，這就是最終的結果。這裡的黃色線就是品質多空組合。它的表現超越了所有其他選項。That factor translates to crypto, and it starts to show up in the data that actually you want to own the assets that have a high quality characteristic. What does that actually mean in crypto? You've got to look for the assets that are actually generating fees, but are actually generating fees on a sustainable basis. You want to look for the assets that have strong value accrual, okay, their tokenomic policies are positive, and you want to look for the assets that have relatively low supply. If you take a basket of those assets and go long the top ones, And short the bottom ones. That is what the result is. The yellow line here is the quality long-short basket. It has outperformed everything.

19:43它的表現超越了比特幣。不過，我不想因此而過度興奮。這純粹是一個學術上的練習。在加密貨幣領域，因為市場結構的關係，你沒辦法做空市場。你可以做空，但你其實沒辦法真正複製這個策略。但如果你只是投資在那些根據這些正面屬性排名前三分之一的資產，今年你會有 17% 的報酬，而比特幣今年還是下跌了 10%。所以，這就是市場在告訴我們，基本面終於開始重要了。It has outperformed Bitcoin. Now, I wouldn't want to get carried away with this. This is a purely academic exercise. In crypto, you can't short the market because of the market structure. You can short. You can't really replicate this strategy. But if you had just invested in the top third of the assets that are ranked on these positive attributes, you would be up 17% this year, and Bitcoin is still down 10%. So this is the market telling us that finally, fundamentals matter.

20:20市場重估與結論

20:20讓我們把視角拉遠一點。這是市值加權指數。你可以看到過去九年的對數趨勢線。但你也可以看到，目前我們的交易價格比趨勢線低了大約35%。你可以發現市場基本上沒有什麼變化。與此同時，所有關於採用率的指標都大幅成長，而我仍然認為現在還是早期階段。所以當你思考我們接下來會走向哪裡時，你可以注意到，這個資產類別正開始出現重新評價的現象。以目前的情況來說，加密貨幣其實不應該上漲。我們有一個宏觀的外部環境，全球流動性正在收緊。美元走強，債券波動率上升，所有這些指標——這些一直指引加密貨幣流動性循環的指標——都在告訴我們，加密貨幣現在不應該上漲。但這裡有一些結構性的變化正在發生，正在改變這一切。So let's zoom out. This is the market cap weighted index. You can see the log trend over the last nine years. But you can also see that we're trading below trend at the moment by about 35%. You can see that the market has gone nowhere. Meanwhile, everything has exploded in terms of adoption, and I would still argue it's early. So when you think about where we're headed, you can think about the fact that suddenly we're starting to see a re-rating of this asset class. Crypto should not be up right now. We have a macro overlay or macro situation. We have a tightening global liquidity. The dollar is up, bond volatility, all the markers. that have guided the liquidity cycle for crypto are telling us that crypto should not be up. But there is something structural happening here which is changing.

21:22所以這就是我的論點：當資本紀律遇上需求拐點，這個資產類別將會被大幅重估。謝謝大家！And so this is the thesis. When capital discipline meets demand inflection, this asset class is going to be re-rated a lot higher. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.