交易巨頭現身說法：機構觀點看2026加密市場走勢

0:00交易巨頭自我介紹

0:00今天我們有一場非常精彩的討論。先來個快速自我介紹，然後我們就開始吧。大家好，我是Yoann，Wintermute的共同創辦人，九年前和Evgeny、Haro一起創立。這是我第四次創業，我有點工作狂，連假日都會在美國和亞洲時段交易。先介紹到這裡。We got a pretty exciting discussion today. Let's just do a quick round of introductions very briefly, and then we'll get started. I'm Yoann. I co-founded Wintermute with Evgeny and Haro nine years ago. It's my fourth venture. I'm a bit of a workaholic, so what I do on holidays, I trade U.S. markets and Asian hours. What else? I'm just going to keep it there.

0:40大家好，我是Thomas，QRT的量化研究總監。QRT可能是台上最不為人知的公司，因為我們一直保持低調。我們是全球多元資產投資管理公司，目前管理超過600億美元資產，其中有20億美元專注於數位資產基金Mobius，2021年成立。我加入QRT是為了拓展對外業務，像是OTC流動性提供和造市。很高興今天能在這裡。Hello, everybody. I'm Thomas. Weirdly, QRT might be the least well-known firm on the stage, which is probably not surprising, as we've kept a pretty low profile to this point. But Qube, or QRT, is a global multi-asset investment manager. We currently manage over $60 billion in assets. That's six zero. Including over $2 billion in a dedicated digital asset fund called Mobius, which was started in 2021. I joined Qube to help build out some of the more external-facing businesses, such as OTC liquidity provision and market making.

1:18大家好，我是Darius，QCP的創辦人。我們是新加坡本地的團隊，十年前在新加坡成立，是一家機構級交易和資產管理公司。Excited to be here today. I'm Darius. I'm the founder of QCP. We are the Singapore homeboys. Started about 10 years ago now in Singapore, and we are an institutional trading desk and asset management firm.

1:31大家好，我是GSR的Xin Song。先跟大家說聲抱歉，這週講太多話，加上新加坡最近空氣品質不好，聲音有點啞。GSR最有名的是數位資產流動性提供者，但我們正在成長，現在是全方位資本市場夥伴，包含顧問、交易、資產管理，全球約250人，總部在新加坡。Hey everyone, Xin Song from GSR. Apologies in advance for my voice because on this panel, too much talking this week, and then the haze that's enveloped the city for the last few weeks, probably for anyone. You sound great, though. Yeah, thanks. It's not for long. Yeah. So GSR is best known as a liquidity provider in digital assets, but we're growing. Full-scale capital markets partner business across advisory, a trading business, and an asset management, about 250 people globally, based in Singapore.

1:59我是Josh Barkhordar，FalconX全球銷售負責人。FalconX是全球性的主經紀商，涵蓋現貨、衍生品、信貸，最近也進軍RWA，包括永續合約、Pre-IPO TRS、大宗商品、預測市場和算力。那我們就直接切入主題，來聊聊市場現況吧！Great. I'm Josh Barkhordar. I'm the global head of sales at FalconX. FalconX is a global prime broker across spot, derivatives, credit, and most recently going into RWA with perps, pre-IPO TRS, commodities, prediction markets, and compute. And with that. Let's talk about the main topic. What's going on in the market?

2:13市場現況與牛市觀察

2:13最近幾週市場明顯反彈，主因是美國財政部的貨幣貶值敘事，以及Donald Trump提到“hyperliquid”這個詞，帶動了行情。不過聯準會升息後，這個敘事又被削弱。你們怎麼看這波反彈？這會是新一輪牛市的開始嗎？還是對這波漲勢持保留態度？We've seen the market rally over the last few weeks, triggered by the Treasury Department's debasement narrative and Trump uttering the word hyperliquid, and that triggered it all. And then we saw the Fed hike rates, and that weakened that narrative. What do you think of the most recent rally? Is this the beginning of another bull run, or are you skeptical of the most recent rally?

2:36先聲明，我通常是房間裡最樂觀的人。如果你看CPI和PPI資料，大家原本希望聯準會不要升息，甚至降息。結果通膨數字稍高，市場反應很負面。壞消息都來了，還有升息、鷹派發言、國家印鈔等。所有負面因素都發生後，我反而更看多，因為都已經反映了，市場還能往上。昨天的回檔我猜是有人要賣幣去參加發幣活動。接下來幾個月會很有趣。So, disclaimer, I tend to be the most bullish person in the room every time. If you look at the CPI and PPI that we had ahead of the Fed, people were clearly hoping for at least no rate move or actually, if anything, the rates going down. It's pretty obvious that they reacted quite negatively to actually just a slightly higher figure for inflation. Turned out that after all the bad news came through, we had a rate hike, we had some very hawkish language, stirred a bit of the backdrop of essentially some money, some bro, some money printing from the state. I think everything that could be negative happened, and being already bullish, it became even more bullish. Thinking that, well, everything has gone through and we did go up a bit higher. Not sure what happened yesterday. I'm assuming that people are selling because they need to finance token events. But yeah, essentially it's just, I think it would be quite interesting the next few months.

3:39我同意，尤其是現在美債殖利率創下幾十年新高，這對市場其實不是好事。那你們覺得現在推動加密貨幣價格的，是加密圈內的事件，還是跟全球股市、信貸、利率等宏觀市場一樣的力量？Yeah, I agree. I agree, especially with what we're seeing in the treasury rates, right? Rates really rallying, the highest levels in decades, right? That's obviously not good for the market. But to that point, do you think that what's driving crypto price action are crypto-specific catalysts, or is it the same forces that are driving macro markets, equities, credit, rates?

4:04資金流動與機構化趨勢

4:04我認為比特幣現在有點像是對混亂的避險工具。市場越亂，比特幣表現越好。資金流動很重要，當AI題材大漲時，資本都流向AI，加密市場像是被冷落的孩子。但當AI熱潮有疑慮時，資金又回流加密。這就是動物精神、資本流動。隨著加密市場越來越機構化，容量也在提升。比特幣市值和股市比還是很小，只要一點資本重新配置，長期成長空間還很大，所以我還是很看多。Well, I think, you know, crypto to some extent, or Bitcoin specifically, has become a bit of a hedge for chaos. No more chaotic the markets seem to be, it tends to, you know, have positive price action. And what we're seeing also is, you know, I think in terms of money flow, you know, money is deciding where to flow at any point in time. When there was an AI rally, crypto looked a bit like the bastard child of capital markets, and everyone was going to AI. When there's a bit of questions about, you know, whether the AI rally continues, some of that flow comes back into crypto. So a lot of it is like, you know, animal spirits, money flow, capital flow. And I think as the crypto markets get more and more institutional, you know, you see the capacity increase as well. Because, I mean, if you look at relative size of like Bitcoin to the stock markets, it's still really tiny. So the potential for long-term growth from just a bit of the capital reallocating is still there. So I would say, you know, generally still quite, quite, you know, bullish.

5:10我想補充一點，這波行情感覺和過去比，相關性低很多。比特幣、股票、黃金對消息的反應都不一樣。比特幣漲了，但債券殖利率創20年新高，黃金卻低迷。我們覺得加密市場更重視基本面，這種趨勢會持續下去。現在比特幣和其他資產的脫鉤越來越明顯。Just wanted to add, just feels way less correlated than previous moves, right? Yeah. So, you know, Bitcoin and equities and gold, they're all reacting differently to news than we've seen before. Bitcoin has rallied, but, you know, the— With bond yields at 20-year highs and gold depressed, and, you know, we feel like there's much more a move within crypto to fundamental value, right? Like the product, and, you know, that will continue in the future. It's been a depegging with gold and other assets.

5:44機構資金流向與新產品需求

5:44你們覺得現在機構資金主要流向哪裡？是ETF、期貨還是衍生品？以我們Qube的經驗來說，Mobius最初是讓投資人接觸加密資產的數位資產基金，但現在逐漸變成流動性和執行平台，讓Qube內外部都能接觸到數位資產。像我們的股票團隊會來問SK Hynix永續合約怎麼樣，ECM團隊會問SpaceX永續合約下週上市怎麼樣，外匯和固定收益團隊也一樣。大家都用Mobius來了解、甚至執行數位資產交易。So where do you think the strongest institutional inflows are coming from? Is it ETFs? Is it futures? Is it derivatives? Thomas. I can tell you what's happening inside Qube, and maybe that's a little bit of a microcosm for the rest of the market. And, you know, our experience is very specific, but actually, so Mobius was started as a digital asset fund, a way for investors to get access to crypto and digital assets in 2021. But what we're seeing now is it's sort of metamorphosizing into sort of a liquidity and execution platform for a way to connect the rest of Qube proper to the outside world. And so what that means is, like, we have equity guys who are coming to us and asking us, Oh, well, what's going on with SK Hynix perps? And, you know, we have our ECM team going, Oh, what's going on with the SpaceX perp that's listing next week? And same thing with the FX guys and the fixed income guys. And so. They're using Mobius as a way of understanding and then eventually executing on, you know, on digital rails.

6:48同時我們也在打造讓外部公司能從Qube獲取流動性的能力。現在如果你想做一筆代幣化或股票永續合約交易，不只是接觸Mobius基金的流動性，而是整個Qube的流動性。Qube的總體規模很大，股票曝險隨時可能有上千億美元。我們本來就是中頻交易，週末持有幾百萬美元風險對我們來說很輕鬆，也能持續為市場提供深度。現在我們看到內外部對數位資產的需求都很強烈，大家都想了解這些市場怎麼融入更大的生態系。But at the same time, part of what we're building out is the ability for external firms to access liquidity from the rest of Qube. And so if you're actually looking to do like a tokenized or an equity perp trade, You're not just accessing the liquidity of the Mobius Fund, but actually of the whole firm. You know, and Qube is a firm that, you know, because of our aggregate size, we might have equity exposures in the hundreds of billions at any given moment. So the idea of—and we're mid-frequency, we tend to be mid-frequency anyway—and so the idea of holding risk on a few million dollars over the weekend is a very comfortable thing for us, and we can continue to add market depth. In these products, you know, that is kind of external to just, you know, what is the Binance or the Hyperliquid mid at this point in time. And so I think we're seeing a lot of demand for digital representations of assets from internally and people from externally who are trying to understand how these markets fit in with a broader ecosystem.

7:48傳統資產與數位資產融合

7:48你剛剛提到SK Hynix和SpaceX永續合約，這其實呼應了今年很熱門的傳統資產和數位資產融合趨勢，像股票、商品、預測市場、算力、永續合約等。你們的交易桌上，這類產品的需求多嗎？And you touched on something. You touched on SK Hynix perps, SpaceX perps. That touches on the convergence narrative that we've seen for the better part of the year now between traditional assets and digital assets across equities, commodities, prediction markets, compute, perps. How much demand are you seeing on your trading desk for these products?

8:07這類產品需求其實蠻多的，尤其是CFD（差價合約）成長最快，和大宗商品、代幣化股票高度重疊。大家都在搶投機客，2017到2021年投機客都在加密，後來有些人跑去做外匯、黃金、石油。現在大家又想把這些人拉回來，所以就推出代幣化股票等產品。像我們就提供代幣化黃金給很多CFD平台，他們收到的是CFD，我們持有代幣化黃金。這些平台包括一些新型數位銀行和Web2交易平台，甚至週末也能交易股票。未來AI普及後，大家會有更多時間娛樂和交易，週末交易需求會增加。2025年加密市場會有更多這種傳統資產包裝的產品出現。Quite a few, I would say. CFDs especially has been, you know, the fastest growing. The segment for OTC, overlapping with commodities, overlapping with essentially tokenized stocks. So you end up with essentially, so everyone is trying to cater for the speculator. The speculator was in crypto, let's say 2017, 2021 or so. And then the speculators somehow dance to leave the crypto space once in a while. And then 2023, they dared to actually just go and trade FX. And 24, I saw they do a bit of FX, they do a bit of gold, they do a bit of oil actually earlier this year. And now every time it's just people are just trying to drag the cover back to themselves. So what do we do? We just do a tokenized version of equities and so on. So we end up with, you know, catching, for let's say, for gold, we provide essentially tokenized gold to a lot of CFD providers. So they don't, they don't, they wouldn't receive it as such. So we would hold the tokenized gold and we give them a CFD, for example. So that's one thing on some platforms, I don't know if we can name here, but some neobanks and some, you know, Web2 trading platforms. Then would offer equity trading over the weekend. And that's the question actually for the future is, well, whatever happens to everyone's jobs with AI, people will basically have more time to be entertained and to trade, and the time to trade is very much not on the weekend at this stage. So there's an interesting, you know, wide interesting overlap between. Crypto in 2025 from that perspective. So very much CFDs, very much, you know, a wrapper around the traditional assets.

9:51市場回檔與風險報酬機會

9:51你們的交易桌觀察到，當市場回檔時，資金會轉進加密，還是加密也會跟著股市一起跌？如果AI巨頭IPO，可能還是會吸走注意力和資金。短期內可能會有回檔，但長期來看，資金還是會回流加密資產。You guys have a very unique view into what's going on in markets with your respective desks. Market pulls back. Do you think that that capital rotates into crypto, or do you think the crypto market pulls back with the equity market? The mega cap. Sort of AI IPOs happen, and that might still suck up the attention and the capital. We'll go old school, see, like good technology picks there. And time will tell. You know, it depends how quickly. I think short term it'll be a, you know, a retracement, and then, you know, over a longer term, then hopefully it will be, you know, a rotation into crypto assets again.

10:28那以風險報酬來看，現在你們桌上看到最好的交易機會是什麼？我給個比較冷門的答案：2025年10月10日，加密圈發生了一次信貸事件，我覺得這個問題還沒完全解決。大家都在擴大交易範圍，從原生加密資產到代幣化RWA、股票，這些資產還是在同樣有風險的交易場域。雖然像Robinhood、Coinbase有改善，但單一交易所的信貸風險還在。這是個大問題，除非我們解決信貸風險，不然類似事件還可能再發生。And related to that, with respect to risk. What would you say is the best risk-reward trade in the market that you're seeing on your desks, Darius? Just to answer your previous question as well, I think I'm going to give a bit of a left-field answer, right? 2025, October 10th, we saw a credit event happen in the crypto native world. I don't think we've actually fully addressed that yet, right? You know, there was a— The credit events, everyone sort of moved on, and now we're expanding the trading of both crypto-native assets, as well as tokenized RWAs and tokenized equities, expanding the universe of assets that are trading on venues that still have the same vulnerabilities. I mean, now we're seeing, you know, some of that being mitigated with Robinhood, Coinbase to some extent. But that October 10th vulnerability of, you know, single venue, single point of failure in a crypto-native venue risk, that credit risk still remains. And now we are expanding the universe of assets being traded there. I think that's the elephant in the room, actually. And especially like... You know, what is the solution to this? Is it more regulation? Is it, you know, having a credit waterfall on some of these venues? I'm not sure. But I think an October 10th could happen again, right, unless we address that credit mitigation issue.

11:49監管進展與機構入場障礙

11:49你剛剛提到監管風險。最近CLARITY Act沒過，SEC和CFTC又提出自己的規則。CLARITY Act對市場有多重要？你覺得我們會有明確的監管框架，讓傳統金融機構更快進場嗎？我在倫敦住了20年，不算是美國DC圈內人，但大家都認為監管明確很重要。沒有明確規則，很難做長期投資或規劃。SEC和CFTC現在積極推動規則，這比過去進步很多。不過監管機構的政策其實很容易變動，像SEC之前有個SAB 121規則，要求銀行持有加密資產時要提列很高資本，結果很多美國銀行退出這個業務，後來SAB 121又被撤銷。如果監管高層換人，政策又會變，所以很難只靠這些規則做長期規劃。And you did touch on one area. You touched on regulatory risk. And so to that point, we just saw the Clarity Act fail, and now the SEC and CFTC are proposing their own rules. How important was the Clarity Act to the actual market, and do you think we're going to get the regulatory framework we need to accelerate traditional financial institutions coming into the space, Thomas? Well, keeping in mind, I should caveat this by saying I've been living in London for the last 20 years, and so I would not consider myself like a DC insider. I will say that. There was the view that clarity was going to be crucial. And I do think that ultimately legislation is going to be important for institutions to come in. Like, it's hard to do capex unless there's, like, a very clear rule set. And so if you're going to make, like, a large multi-year investment or create a roadmap for your organization, It's hard to do it without that sort of legislative, you know, approval or structure in place. Now, the SEC and CFTC engaging in this rulemaking is incredible and shows the pace and the sophistication of the regulators in the U.S., which is a very sharp difference than, you know, what we've seen kind of in the past, in the very recent past. But, you know, I think it— We should keep in mind that, you know, the rulemaking that is done by the regulators is less persistent over time when it comes to permanent change. Like, I don't know how—I'm probably dating myself a little bit here—but there was a rule that was put out by the SEC called SAB 121. SAB stood for Staff Accounting Bulletin, and it essentially laid— laid the rule set that if a bank were to engage in crypto, they would have to hold capital on any asset that was on their balance sheet in a way that was really, really, really punitive for any sort of capital ratios, which essentially took a lot of the U.S. banks out of this business. And SAB 121 ended up getting repealed or revoked. But it's one of those things that if there is a significant change in the leadership at either the regulator, you know, potentially in two years, then it's harder to make long-term plans just based on these sort of rulemaking.

14:08我補充一下，長期規劃確實需要立法，但短期來說，SEC和CFTC已經展現出推動監管的能力。SEC允許最高7500萬美元的代幣發行安全港，我們看到一些Web3公司會利用這個機會。CFTC也在推動美國合規的永續合約市場，我們也有參與。長期來看，還是需要聯邦層級的立法，這對機構進場很重要，但短期我們不擔心。簡單說，如果你因為CLARITY Act沒過而做空，這波你是賠錢的。Sorry, I just wanted to chip in. Long-term plans, absolutely, but I think short-term. It doesn't actually really matter. I think in the short term, the agencies, the SEC and the CFTC have shown that they're able to pursue with, you know, their own regulatory frameworks. SEC's allowed the safe harbor for, you know, token issuance up to, you know, $5 million and $75 million. We think some good Web3 companies will take advantage of that. We see the innovation exemption for tokenized... U.S. equities on DEXs, we're going to be a designated market maker for that. So it's progressing, right? And the CFTC is doing their own thing, you know, U.S. regulated perps, we're participating in those markets as well. In the long term, I think Thomas is right, like agency policies can be reversed. So, you know, having something at the federal level is going to be massively helpful for institutions to wade in. But short term, we're not worried. Okay, the short answer to that question is if you went short after the clarity act failed, you have lost money.

15:11客戶動向與熱門交易策略

15:11我們聊了很多風險，也談了你們的看法。我想知道你們桌上的客戶實際在做什麼？他們怎麼布局？這透露出年底前市場可能怎麼走？我們OTC交易的代幣種類最多，這幾年最熱門的交易就是備兌買權（covered call），這也是為什麼波動率這麼便宜。這種策略讓一些客戶在Zcash等新興幣種上賺到錢。近期看到一些聰明資金在買比特幣的上漲權利，但都很保守，像90-95區間。Solana的高價買權也很熱門，我自己也看多Solana。大家都在找有零售和機構雙重能見度的標的，再加上非對稱押注，像買買權、價差單等。也有人在買Doge的價差單。Doge以前是迷因幣和散戶熱度的指標，現在可能不是了。其實Robinhood鏈上最近還有4.4億美元的迷因幣。現在就是機構和迷因兩端的力量在拉鋸。如果你只看宏觀就別碰迷因幣，如果你愛社群、TikTok，那就去玩迷因幣。We've talked about the risks, a number of different risks, and we've talked about your sentiment and your views. I want to know what clients are actually doing on your desk. How are they positioning, and what does that tell you about where the market is going to the end of the year? So, I think. Admittedly, I think we've got the widest sort of token range that is traded, the OTC. One bit of the crowded trade that everyone's been seeing in crypto for many, many years is the covered call trade, which is probably how you can most easily explain why the vol is still so cheap. It creates some opportunities, and we do have a few counterparties as such that— You know, about cheap calls and whatever, Zcash and, you know, all the stuff that's popped up recently. And that's actually worked very well for them. What do we see? We've seen a few sort of on the smart money side. We've seen some people buying a bit of upside in Bitcoin especially, but conservatively, so it's like a 90-95 sort of. Mid, mid price. Solana, like the really, really top side is still being bought, and I think it's achieved. I'm long PA, NFA, and so on, but I think it's got a lot of interesting potential. You're thinking of, like, you know, good trade, good opportunities earlier, and I think it's trying to find both an underlying token that has... Good visibility both from a retail and an institutional perspective, but also adding, you know, asymmetric bets on top of it so people can buy calls, they can buy call spreads and whatnot. And yeah, this is happening. We do see people buying randomly, you know, call spreads on Doge and so on. Doge used to be the big star and then the big... The bigger barometer for meme coin and for the general retail interest, and I don't know if it's still the case. I think if you look at, you know, Yusless and a few others, actually you had a better idea of the meme coin interest. Even the Robinhood chain had something like $440 million of memes on their chain quite recently. So I think it's a bit of a— Yeah, it's just a bit of sensing the barbell of institutional interest and meme interest and how you want to trade. So if you want to trade, if your brain is filtered for macro, then just don't touch the memes. And if your, you know, if your brain is filtered for, you know, socials and just, you know, being on TikTok, then of course you should be trading the memes.

17:46我要給Darius一個讚，他2018年就在台上講備兌買權策略。如果你相信四年週期，過去的回檔都在80-95%，今年如果照週期，回檔大約50%。現在連BlackRock都有備兌買權ETF，這些策略供給讓波動率被壓低，也代表比特幣越來越多被ETF、退休帳戶持有，這些人反而比原生加密交易者更有耐心。因為你退休帳戶裡有IBIT，不會每天盯盤。這就是機構化對資金流的影響。Can I just give a shout out to Darius? Because I've heard you—Darius was talking about covered call strategies on stages back in 2018. And I do think that, you know, like, look, if you're a believer in the four-year cycle, you know, I'm sort of agnostic to it, but, you know, in the past, drawdowns have been, you know, in the neighborhood of 80 to 95%. And this year, if you believe in the cycle, you know the drawdown is now in the neighborhood of 50%. And the covered call strategies, like, you know, BlackRock has covered call ETFs now. The amount of gamma supply that is coming from the sales of these covered calls does dampen volatility a bit. But it actually also shows that, you know, a lot of Bitcoin is being held in, like, ETFs and retirement accounts, and— Weirdly, those tend to be more diamond hands than a lot of the, like, the native crypto traders. Because, you know, if you have IBIT in your retirement account, you're not, like, checking the mark-to-market, like, every day on your position. And so I do think that, you know, we are seeing the effect of the institutionalization of the space on flows already.

18:57我們也看到客戶對策略簡化的需求，像是低風險、保本型產品，這可能是亞洲投資人偏好，像日本或其他亞洲國家，大家喜歡持有資產或美元、當地貨幣，然後賺取利息。但這也讓市場變得更兩極，波動率和基差都被壓縮，當有突發行情時，波動會放大，然後又再壓縮，形成這種循環。But I did want to just shout— No, thank you. I think we have seen... Demand for simplification of these strategies actually to more very simple, lower-yield, principal-protected kind of, maybe it's the Asian flavor to it, right? Like Japan or the rest of Asian countries where they just prefer, you know, hold along assets or dollars and local currency and get yield on anything you own. But I actually think that that results in a potentially more binary situation because you have vols compressing, you have bases compressing. So the whole market is positioned for that kind of compression. And that's why when you have sudden moves like the one you mentioned, you know, it's outsized, and then you get a vol breakout, and then you get a compress again. So you have that kind of pattern.

19:41未來一年最有信心的押注

19:41最後一題，也是我最想問的：如果只能做一個押注，不能避險，你們對未來12個月最有信心的是什麼？Yoann：我看多Solana。很快，謝謝。We have time for just one more question, and it's my most important question. Given all of the insights that you guys have, if you could make one bet over the next 12 months, what is your highest conviction view, and you can't hedge it? Yoann. I'm a long Solana guy. Long Solana. Okay. Pretty quick. Thank you.

20:05很多人都看多Solana。Thomas：這題對我來說很難，因為我不是做短線交易。這不是價格預測，但我認為加密貨幣會成為每個人投資組合中的一個資產類別。過去10年最穩定的策略其實是波動率飆升時做空波動率，雖然不是最賺，但最穩。A lot of Solana bulls out there. Oh God, this is a terrible question for me because, you know, it's not a sort of trade. Okay, this is not a price action prediction. This is going to be harder to check, but I think that crypto is going to end up just being another asset class that's going to sit in everybody's portfolio in some, you know, in some allocation. The most consistently performing trade in the last 10 years. I mean, not the most outperforming, but most consistently performing. It's actually been shorting vols whenever they spike. So shorting vols, yeah.

20:37Xin：也許我的答案有點偏頗，但流動性提供者未來還是很重要。過去一年半對很多交易公司很艱難，但我們狀況很好，也看到很多機會。雖然有些競爭對手遇到困難，但我們的交易方式會改變，和市場互動方式也會變。Agentic AI正在興起，DeFi的比重也在提升，但完全自動化還是沒辦法有效管理風險，專業流動性提供者還是很重要。我們也在開發新的造市模型，未來流動性提供者還是不可或缺。Yeah, maybe my answer is biased, especially given the panel, but, you know, liquidity providers are going to still be relevant, right, in the future. I think it's been a tough 12, 18 months for a lot of trading firms, but, you know, we're in a very strong position. We see opportunities. We've been acquisitive. Some, you know, competitors have struggled to a greater or lesser extent, but I think the way we trade is going to be different. The way we interact with markets, agentic AI is picking up. We're seeing that on centralized venues. We're seeing more DeFi dominance happen as a result of that. But you can't manage risk that effectively in a fully automated way. You still need professional liquidity providers, AMM solver. You know, stablecoin trades when there's very little market risk, but more exotic things, I think, are highly relevant for players like us to step in. We're working on a proper MM, for example, to answer some of those questions. So liquidity providers are still going to be relevant for a while.

21:33我們大家都準備長期投入這個產業，沒什麼避險空間。其實市場越來越碎片化，造市商的角色只會更重要。像你想要買Nvidia現貨，但不確定資金在Binance還是Bitstocks或Kraken，造市商就是幫你解決這些複雜流程，直接給你報價。未來市場越分散，造市商的價值越高。We're all, like, in it for the long haul, right? We're committing our time and efforts into that. No hedge there. But really quick to follow up, like if you think about the function of market makers, especially in markets which are super fragmented and we're just getting more and more in that direction, the market makers serve the function of providing liquidity and bridging the risk that is available across the entire kind of global liquidity of an asset. And so if you want to get access, just delta one access to some product like Nvidia, but you don't know if you have capital on Binance for Bitstocks or Kraken for Xstocks or what have you, like the point of the market makers is to actually, you go to them and say, I want to abstract away a lot of the complexity, a lot of the middle and back office nonsense, and I just want a price. And market makers are always going to serve that function and will only become more important as markets become more fragmented, and that's just the direction of travel.

22:34總結與市場展望

22:34這些答案都很有啟發性。Josh：以FalconX衍生品部門來看，我同意大家說的，客戶年底前都在布局上漲，像90、95區間的買權。我們甚至看到有些客戶押更高價位，像比特幣破百。也有客戶在Hyperliquid上布局上漲。整體來說，市場情緒還是偏多。如果你三週前問我，我會更看多，但現在有些客戶開始變得謹慎，因為AI資本支出可能見頂，利率V型反彈等因素影響市場。部分客戶開始獲利了結，但大多數人還是看多到2027年。我的建議是繼續做多。今天時間差不多，謝謝各位講者！Those are some pretty insightful answers. And Josh, what's your— Mine. Oh, okay. Nice. I would say, you know, just from the FalconX derivatives desk perspective, I do agree with your points around clients positioning for... Topside going into the end of the year, you mentioned the 90, 95 call spreads. I think we see some clients positioning for even higher than that, in the low hundreds within Bitcoin. I also see some clients continue to position for topside in Hyperliquid. But I would say overall sentiment is still bullish. You know, if you asked me this question three weeks ago, I would have given you That answer, I would have said that things are much more bullish. Now I am starting to see a good portion of the client base much more skeptical in this rally, and that's driven by, as you said, AI capex potentially topping out, this V-shaped recovery that we're seeing in rates that we haven't seen in decades, all sort of weighing on the market. And so we're starting to see some clients starting to take some chips off the table, but I would say that Over the long, let's say, you know, one to three months going into the end of the year, clients are definitely positioned for topside, and I think the vast majority of clients are still bullish going into 2027. So I would say go long. And with that, that's all the time we have. Let's give it up for our panelists, everybody.