加密資本大遷徙：AI、上鏈與新市場動能

0:00開場與資本再分配主題

0:00很高興在 TOKEN2049 的第一天看到這麼多人來參加，這週對大家來說都很忙碌，所以我很感謝這四位嘉賓願意抽空與我對談。今天我們要討論的是資本的再分配。這個主題之所以對在場每一位都很重要，是因為我們會從股權流動、四位嘉賓不同的觀點，來看接下來有哪些值得關注的趨勢和事件。Lovely to see so many of you here for day one of Token 2049, a busy week for everyone, so I appreciate these four gentlemen taking some time out to sit with me. So in this conversation, we're looking at the reallocation of capital. I think why this is significant for everyone in the room is looking at equity flows, looking at the different perspectives that all four of you gentlemen have, what kind of things are upcoming and what kind of things are the items to watch and to see what happens next.

0:36首先，我想請大家輪流簡單介紹一下自己的組織。Richard，先從你開始。So starting off, I'd love to go around the room and Richard, starting with you, just a brief introduction to the organization.

0:43四位嘉賓自我介紹

0:43當然。DACM 是一家專注於家族辦公室與機構資本、直接投資加密貨幣領域的機構管理人。我們橫跨早期創投和流動性市場，從 2017 年中開始就一直在做這件事。Sure. DACM, we're an institutional manager of family office institutional capital direct into crypto space. So we work across both early stage VC and liquid markets, and we've been doing so since about mid-2017.

0:5950T Funds 是一家成長階段的私募股權投資人，主要聚焦於數位資產領域、年營收至少 5,000 萬到 1 億美元的公司。我們成立六年，已經投資了 25 間公司，資產管理規模接近 20 億美元。50T Funds, we're a growth stage private equity investor focused mostly on companies in the digital asset world, making at least 50 to 100 million in revenue. We've been around now six years. We've made 25 investments, around a little less than 2 billion AUM.

1:16Monarq Asset Management 是一家多策略避險基金，專注於流動性市場。我們從鏈上策略、量化策略到選擇權策略都有涉獵，目前隸屬於 FalconX。Monarq Asset Management, multi-strategy hedge fund focused on the liquid markets. We do everything from on-chain to quantitative strategies to options. We're owned by FalconX.

1:28Brevan Howard Digital 是 Brevan Howard 旗下的數位資產部門，管理數十億美元資產。Brevan Howard 本身是一家 350 億美元的基金，數位部門投資範圍從流動性代幣到私募股權都有涵蓋。Brevan Howard Digital is a multi-billion division within Brevan Howard, which is a $35 billion fund. The digital business invests in everything from liquid tokens through to privates.

1:39傳統金融與數位資產的融合

1:39謝謝大家的介紹。這兩天我們在舞台上一直聽到一個主題，就是傳統金融和數位資產領域的融合，以及這對資本投資意味著什麼。Shiliang，我想先請你談談這個議題：當我們看到數位資產上鏈，這只是傳統市場金融基礎設施的升級，還是真的出現了全新的金融產品，讓大家可以配置資本？Thank you. Thank you all for the introduction. Now, something that we're hearing continuously across the two days on the stage is the convergence of finance, traditional finance, and digital asset space, and also what that means for everyone in terms of investments of capital. I think first of all, just starting, and Shiliang, I'd like to start with you here. When we look at the convergence of the two, when we look at digital assets moving on-chain, is this something where we're just seeing traditional markets having better financial plumbing, or are we really seeing a new financial suite of products for people to allocate capital into?

2:12我認為兩者都有，而且是有順序的。所謂的基礎設施（plumbing）讓資產能夠上鏈，但一旦資產上鏈後，交易和互動方式就會改變，這會帶來全新的市場。我想強調新資產和新市場的差別，因為市場包含了使用者如何互動、行為如何改變。回顧金融市場的歷史，從資本市場電子化、支付市場數位化，這些都改變了我們的支付、交易、投資和互動方式。現在你會看到像鏈上 vault、可產生收益的穩定幣、永續合約等，這些可能不是全新資產，但卻是全新市場，使用者的互動方式也和過去完全不同。舉例來說，週六還能交易 AI 晶片股的永續合約，這就是全新的市場。所以我真的相信我們正在創造新的市場。Yeah, I think it's both, right? I think it's both in sequence, right? Plumbing is what brings assets on-chain, and once it's on-chain, I think how it's traded and interacted with, it's the user behavior that changes and creates a new market. And I want to differentiate between a new asset and a new market, because market takes into account how users interact with the asset and how behavior changes, right? I think if you look historically at financial markets and how that became, you know, on the internet, capital markets, how they became electronic, payment markets, how that became digital, all that changed how we, you know, paid, traded, invested, and interacted with these new markets, right? And now I think you're looking at things like, you know, on-chain vaults or, you know, yield-bearing stablecoins. These are all fundamental, or perpetual swaps, right? These are all fundamentally different markets. They might not all be new assets. But they are fundamentally different markets, and how users interact with them are consistently different than how historically they have, right? Like a trader on a Saturday, you know, trading AI chip stocks, you know, on a perpetual market, that is fundamentally a different market, right? So that I truly believe that we are creating new markets.

3:36產品創新還是基礎設施升級？

3:36Chris，你怎麼看？你同意「新產品 vs. 更好基礎設施」這個說法嗎？And Chris, what about you? Do you agree with the statement of newer products versus better plumbing?

3:43我同意這個觀點。我們其實看到兩個階段。第一階段的代幣化，其實就是把傳統金融商品包裝成一層代幣，像穩定幣和 RWA（實體資產代幣化）就是把傳統金融工具包裹上代幣層，這帶來很大的好處，例如 24/7 交易、更有效率的資本配置。但真正令人興奮的是第二階段，也就是原生發行在鏈上的資產。最近有幾個案例很有指標性，比如 Bullish 收購 Equiniti、Securitize 和 Computershare 的合作，這些都是針對原生股東名冊上鏈。這會開啟鏈上原生發行的新時代，帶來更多效率和營運上的好處。所以我現在的觀點是，價值會如何累積、投資機會會在哪裡，這些都會隨著融合持續發展。Yeah, I align with that. We're seeing really two phases here. The first phase for tokenization is effectively using it as a wrapper. So with stablecoins and RWAs, you're effectively wrapping traditional finance instruments with a tokenized layer. That brings significant benefits. As mentioned, 24/7 trading, more efficient allocation of capital. But what gets really exciting is when you hit phase two, which is when you have native issuance on chain. And there's a couple of interesting transactions that really identify where the puck is moving. One of those is Bullish's acquisition of Equiniti, and the other is Securitize tie-up with Computershare. In both those cases, are targeting native shareholder registries that can be brought on chain. And that really opens up then native issuance on chain, which will bring the second phase, which will bring more benefits in terms of efficiency particularly, but also in terms of operations. So the lens I look at it at this point is it's really about. Where does this value accrue, and where the investment opportunities are as this convergence continues?

4:54流動性與資本池的變化

4:54你們剛剛提到『開放』這個詞，Richard、Dan，我想請你們談談流動性。當進入門檻降低，我們會看到新的流動性池、更多資本進來，還是只是同一批流動性在不同循環裡流轉？Richard，先請你分享。And now you've mentioned the phrase open things up, and Richard, Dan, I want to turn to you now. We've got to talk about liquidity. As we see the barriers to entry come down, do we see that there's new liquidity pools, there's more capital to be allocated, or is it just the same liquidity moving around in different cycles? Richard, I'll start with you.

5:13我認為流動性一定是增加的。舉例來說，如果你現在可以在週末交易某個資產，而以前週末不能交易，那就自動創造了一個新市場和新流動性，這在 12 個月前可能還不存在。很多來自已開發市場的人，常常低估了在其他地區持有資產的障礙。穩定幣就是個好例子，把美元這個『最無聊』的產品放到新技術架構上，結果在亞洲等地大規模普及，讓很多人第一次擁有美元。我認為未來也會看到同樣的現象，大家會用這些技術來持有 Tesla 或 SpaceX 的股票，這在我們本國很容易，但對很多人來說並不容易，這會增加流動性。不過這也讓流動性集中到頂級資產，例如穩定幣和美元的普及遠超預期。像澳幣穩定幣市場即使在澳洲本地也很小，和美元穩定幣沒得比。現在在代幣化市場也看到這種趨勢，大家都想買 SpaceX、Tesla 這些以前有障礙的股票。現在開放存取還很新，所以我們看到流動性配置很分散。Yeah, I think by definition there's more liquidity because if you can trade something on the weekend that you couldn't trade on the weekend before, you've automatically started a new market and new liquidity that didn't exist probably only 12 months ago. I think also, you know, people underestimate, particularly people that come from advanced developed markets, the barriers that exist outside of those advanced developed markets to own a lot of assets. And, you know, stablecoins is a good example of, you know, how launching a probably the world's most boring product in terms of a U.S. dollar onto a new technology framework has basically seen the proliferation, particularly through Asia, of new people owning U.S. dollars effectively that never owned them before. And I just think we'll see the same thing again, that we'll see people using this technology to own an interest in a Tesla stock or own an interest in SpaceX, which for a lot of us is easy to do in our home market, but for a lot of other people it's not. And, you know, so that adds liquidity. I do think it does start to push liquidity to the top end of assets like we've seen with stablecoins and U.S. dollars proliferating much more than you would probably expect. You know, there's an Aussie dollar stablecoin market, but it's tiny even in Australia compared to the U.S. dollar stablecoin market. And I think we're starting to see that in tokenization market as well as people sort of congregating to those mega assets around, you know, the—SpaceX, the Teslas, those sorts of stocks that they've wanted to own, and there's been barriers to stop them before. And right now, the open access is quite new, so we are seeing a broad range of allocations of liquidity.

6:47Dan，你怎麼看？未來三到五年，流動性會集中在少數幾個池子或市場嗎？But Dan, are you starting to see, looking ahead three to five years' time, can there be a concentration in just a few pools or markets?

6:57我覺得很難預測，尤其是現在又加上 AI 的影響。這個產業從 2020、2021 年到現在變化非常大。那時候主要還是 Bitcoin、Ethereum，Solana 剛起步，還有一堆創投項目。過去五年，像 Richard 提到，穩定幣 2020 年幾乎是零，現在 RWA 變成真的有規模，還有永續合約交易。每個循環都有不同的驅動力，這一輪明顯是 hype 帶動。我覺得我們現在終於進入牛市，但也出現了像預測市場這種以前沒有的新東西。資本的流向跟過去循環完全不同。更廣義來說，AI 的出現讓大量資本從區塊鏈和加密貨幣被吸走，這一輪其實比較艱難，因為美國短期利率 5%，還有很多前沿資本流向太空、機器人、AI 等等，這些都是兆美元規模的建設。所以這一輪牛市其實資本流入比較少，這也解釋為什麼表面上看起來很掙扎，比如 Bitcoin 價格跟五年前差不多。但其實數位資產生態系的其他領域成長非常快，像代幣化、萬物上鏈的價值都在大幅成長。我覺得這就是這一輪的主軸。I don't know. Three to five years in our space, and now you overlay AI, I think it's hard to know. I would say the space has changed dramatically from 2020, 2021. At that point, it was mostly just about Bitcoin and ETH and maybe the beginning of Solana and then all these venture projects. And in the last five years, I mean, Richard's mentioned, you know, stablecoin growth was zero, essentially in 2020. And now RWAs are real, and we have, you know, perps trading. And I think every cycle has different aspects that drive it. I think clearly hype has been a driver of this current cycle. I think we're in a bull phase now, finally. But then you have prediction markets, which essentially didn't exist before. You know, capital is definitely going to different places in this cycle than it did in previous cycles. And then I'd say more broadly, unfortunately, with the advent of AI, I mean, the capital suck out of blockchain crypto has been enormous. And so it's been a more difficult cycle because, you know, you have the short rates in the U.S. at 5%, and you have all these other, I would say, frontier capital allocations going to space and robotics and—and to build out the AI, which is trillions of dollars. So I think we definitely have seen less capital so far in this bull phase, and I think it may have been like why it's so grudging on the surface. Like Bitcoin, again, at the same price almost that it was five years ago. But then there's been tremendous growth in all these other ancillary areas that I would say are part of the digital asset ecosystem. That has really grown, and tokenization, with the value of all things moving on chain. Yeah. Right. I think that's the leader for this cycle. Yeah. Interesting.

9:15AI 資本流動與產業交集

9:15你剛剛提到 AI。這一波 AI 資本流動很明顯，很多人都在討論加密貨幣的流動性是不是轉移到 AI 產業。Chris，你長期觀察這兩個產業，這是不同的資本池，還是資本其實會輪動？And you've mentioned the AI. Capital flows that we did see, there was huge interest and momentum from the AI space. A lot of people in crypto did question if we were seeing liquidity move from the crypto space over into the AI world. Chris, I'm curious to hear your takes here. For someone that's been kind of watching and seeing both industries emerge, are these different pools of capital, or are we seeing the rotation move from one back to the other?

9:42我認為不同主題會在不同時點吸引資本，動能也是一個重要因素。我的觀點是，這兩個科技循環其實是互補且加成的。AI 現在還在基礎建設階段，需要大量資本支出，但我們已經看到從資料分析、資料生成到資料驅動行動的轉變，這個過程很快。當 AI 開始『行動』，就會產生全新的經濟行為者，而這些行為者需要加密貨幣基礎設施來運作。另一個觀察是，AI 現在面臨的監管、能源、基礎設施、開放或封閉等問題，其實和加密貨幣早期遇到的很像，這也顯示兩者有很多重疊。回到經濟行為者這點，分成散戶和機構兩大類。散戶可以用 AI 做很多事，比如資金移動；機構則會影響財務管理。我認為這兩個循環的交集才剛開始，未來會互相加成，隨著加密基礎設施的應用越來越多，這種趨勢會越明顯。I think maybe just to start off, expectation is that you'll see different themes attract capital at different points, and momentum can be a good driver of that. The lens at which we look at it is that these two technology cycles are complementary and additive. AI, maybe to start with that, is early in the sense of the picks and shovels, a huge amount of capex. But what we're seeing there already is a shift from analyzing data to creating data to then acting on that data. And so that transition has happened quickly, and the acting on the data brings in a whole new realm of economic actor that requires crypto rails to operate. So that's one kind of callout on the AI cycle. The other interesting observation as well is that AI is facing a lot of the common questions and challenges that crypto did in terms of regulation, energy use, market infrastructure, whether it should be open or closed. So that's another indication of how these two cycles have similarities and how they overlap. And then back to the economic actor. Again, that kind of splits, in my mind, into two themes. The first is retail. So retail can use AI for a variety of different activities, whether it's moving cash. Then on the institutional side, it can have much bigger implications for treasury management. And so we're still very early in this. is intertwining of these two cycles, but I see them as compounding each other and increasing as you see more use cases for crypto rails.

11:25我完全同意，AI 生態系未來一定會跑在加密基礎設施上。如果你看 AI 的採用曲線，幾乎是火箭式成長，大家都看得到。區塊鏈會提供基礎設施和貨幣，但這些還沒被市場反映。像 x402 這種標準才剛起步，鏈上 agentic 交易的實際收入還很小，雖然有數百萬個 AI agent 曾在鏈上交易，但總體規模還很小。不過我相信這個交集會誕生很多新公司和協議，未來會被大量應用，現在真的還非常早，甚至一年前都還不存在。And I absolutely agree. I think crypto rails will run for the AI ecosystem. If we look at the adoption curve of what we've seen for AI compared to crypto, the AI adoption curve was like a hockey stick. It was just straight up. And I think everyone in the room could acknowledge that. Blockchain rails will provide the brick-and-mortar infrastructure and currency that we'll use. Do we think that's been priced in yet? No, it's not been priced in. I mean, X402, which is maybe just in the very early stages. There's actually no significant revenue coming from any of the agentic. Transactions on chain. I mean, it's tens of millions of dollars, I think, at the very most, even though there have been trillions—millions of agents that have transacted on chain. It's just very, very small. But I definitely think this overlap of AI and blockchain. There are going to be many companies that are being built, and I think many protocols that'll be leveraged to that. So it's just, just very early. I mean, it didn't exist even a year ago.

12:32AI 資本流向與加密市場定價

12:32Richard，你們有參與這些新冒出來的 AI x 區塊鏈專案嗎？I mean, Richard, are you involved in any of these little projects that are popping up?

12:38有參與一些。我覺得過去 12 個月邊際資金的流向非常明顯。如果你看現在加密貨幣的表現，其實跟美國軟體產業指數的走勢幾乎一模一樣。軟體產業因為不是 AI，被市場拋售；同樣，市場早早就認定加密貨幣不是 AI 產業，把資金從加密撤出、轉進 AI，就像拋售軟體股去追 AI 一樣。但市場總是會過度反應，現在很多優質軟體公司本益比只有 6 倍，很多加密公司也被認為跟 AI 沒關係、沒未來，我覺得這是錯的。只要是數位化的東西，對加密都是利多，而 AI 沒有一樣東西不是數位的，這只會帶來更多資產、更多使用者、更多需求進入這個領域，讓一切都要用加密速度運作。現在完全還沒被市場定價，甚至還被當成負面因素。AI 和區塊鏈的三到五年未來，現在的加密價格完全沒反映到。Yeah, some of them, and I think the overlay to—Yeah, where's the marginal dollar gone in the last 12 months is pretty stark. If you look at the performance of crypto now, there's, you know, you don't want to put too much causality here, but the performance of crypto versus the performance of the software sector, software indices in the US is almost a perfect match, right? And software has been sold off because it's a not AI industry. So I think the marginal dollar made the call early on that crypto is not an AI industry. They've taken money from crypto, they've put it in to chase that next thing in the software, in the AI space, just like they've sold their software names into the AI space. But, you know, as markets do, they overreact and you start to get things like software companies. That are pretty good trading at six times PEs, and you start to see crypto companies getting assumed they're not going to go anywhere and have anything to do with AI, which I think is wrong. You know, everything that digitizes the world is good for crypto, in my view, and then there's nothing around AI that's not digital, right? So it's just going to bring more and more. Assets more and more, users more and more things into the space that move at crypto need to move at crypto speeds. It's not priced in at all. I mean, that was your question. Yeah. Yeah, zero. I mean, I don't. I think crypto is priced that it's not. That it's negative, that AI is actually a negative, if anything, right? So, I mean, the future of AI and blockchain together, that three-, five-year future is not priced in today. There's no in the price of the cryptocurrency, so.

14:10美國嬰兒潮資金再分配與 AI Agent

14:10還有一個很大的總體經濟因素，就是美國嬰兒潮世代的資金再分配，規模高達數十兆美元。多年來大家都在猜這會怎麼影響市場和投資，現在這件事正在發生，而且加速中。AI agent 很快就會普及到散戶，讓他們能在區塊鏈基礎設施上操作和交易。我們正處於——There's also a big macro factor as well, which is the redistribution of baby boomers' money in the U.S. SYGV tens of trillions. And there's been lots of speculation for a number of years about how that will affect markets and how that will affect investing. And this is happening and accelerating at a point where AI agents are going to be available to individual retail traders to operate and use them on blockchain rails. So we are really at the—

14:41AI 與資本配置新時代

14:41現在正處於一個很關鍵的轉折點，市場還沒完全反映這個變化。這對一般散戶來說是很有趣的優勢，像在場的大家，還有像我和你這樣的人，現在都能用更進階的策略來配置那些閒置在銀行裡的資金。你覺得這會改變什麼嗎？We're at a brilliant inflection point where the fall is not priced in. It's a really interesting advantage for everyday retail traders, people in the audience, people like me and you, who can now have a much more sophisticated strategy for allocating that idle capital that's just sitting in a bank. Do you think that will change any of the adjusted terms?

15:02我認為我們還在非常早期的階段，這需要一點時間來建立信任。不過現在銀行裡有很多現金，這些錢未來能不能讓散戶透過 AI 以不同方式投資？絕對可以。這也代表銀行必須開始為了這些存款競爭，市場上會有更多產品給散戶選擇。Yes, I think we're still very early, and it'll take a bit of time to build up trust for that, but there's a lot of cash sitting at banks. Can that be invested in a different way by retail using AI? Absolutely. And that will mean that banks will have to compete for those deposits, and there'll be more products available.

15:26從宏觀角度來看，大家常討論的一個問題是，這會怎麼影響銀行用這些現金放貸、帶動經濟的信用創造？我覺得有趣的是，未來會有很多直接的信貸產品，投資人可以用 AI agent 找到並投資這些產品，甚至連現金都能這樣運用。所以銀行轉型帶來的影響，可能沒大家想像中那麼大。For retail, one of the macro implications that sometimes gets discussed is how does that impact credit formation in terms of credit impulse with banks using that cash to make loans into the economy. What's interesting is that there are going to be a number of direct credit products that investors can use AI agents to find and invest in, as well as the cash. So I think the impact from that transformation that banks undertake will be much less than perhaps people expect.

15:58AI 交易與市場流動性爆發

15:58Richard，你怎麼看？對資產管理業者來說，數位資產領域也會變得更競爭，尤其是跟客戶互動的部分。現在我們最明顯看到 AI 對加密市場的影響，就是交易量大爆發。像 Robinhood 已經讓使用者可以用 agent 操作，Aerodrome 也要在加密領域推出 agent。我認為大家都會有機會用到更高階、類似高頻交易的能力，這些以前根本沒機會接觸到。連我這種基本面派的人，現在也在跑一堆 agent 交易，可能還幫 Brevan 跟 Monarq 賺到錢，因為他們在市場上把我挑掉。但這些流動性三個月前根本不存在，現在規模已經很大了。Interesting. And Richard, what do you think as well? For people in the asset management space, also looking at digital assets, it's going to be competitive in terms of working with clients. The easiest read we have on AI's impact on crypto markets is that volumes explode. Robinhood's brought in agents for their customers to use. Aerodrome in the crypto space is launching agents. I think everyone's going to have access to more sophisticated, high-frequency type trading capabilities that they've never had before. Even I, you know, I'm a fundamental guy, I'm running a bunch of agents trading, probably helping Brevan's and Monarch's bottom line in terms of them picking me off in the market. But it's liquidity that wasn't in the market three months ago that, you know, scales quite big.

16:50所以我們短期內看到的機會，就是交易量會大幅增加。大家都能用到更進階、更 agentic、類 HFT 的能力。不過我還是要提醒一下，這些產品是不是適合大家投入資金，還是有疑慮。銀行配置資本還是有門檻，對很多人來說風險高、難理解。短期內交易量會上升，但要看到大規模資本重新配置，還有障礙要克服。So I think from our perspective, the opportunity we see in the short term is that volumes will pick up materially. Everyone gets access to more sophisticated, more agentic type, HFT-type capabilities they haven't had before. But I'd just be a little cautious because, you know, whether that's the right thing for them to put their money in, there's still barriers around banks allocating that capital. That's still relatively high-risk, hard things to understand for a bunch of people. So in the short term it pushes volumes up, but there's still the barriers before we see a mass reallocation of capital.

17:28資本流動性與平台去中心化

17:28在 AI 與 agentic trading、agentic finance 的世界裡，資本放在哪裡、代表什麼、或資本的可替代性，可能沒那麼重要。重點是你能不能把這些資產當作流動性，在各種平台之間靈活運用。因為對 agent 來說，資產放在哪其實沒差，資產移動的阻力會隨時間降低。真正重要的是，這些資產能不能輕鬆在生態系和各種鏈上市場流動。所以我認為，未來會有更多交易量，平台本身和品牌反而沒那麼重要，重點是資產本身的特性，以及它能不能在鏈上被靈活運用。I think one should probably is just, it matters in the world of AI and agentic trading and agentic finance, probably matters less where capital sits and what that capital represents or how fungible that capital is. And whether you can use that as liquidity across many, many platforms, right? Because an agent doesn't really fundamentally care where the asset sits. The inertia and barriers of moving that assets kind of falls and dies down over time. And really what that matters is how that asset easily can move across the ecosystem and various on-chain markets, right? So I do think, yes, more volume. I think it matters less about the platform and ultimately the brand, and ultimately what that asset represents and how it can be utilized on-chain, for example.

18:17宏觀環境與數位資產表現

18:17我們剛剛聊到 AI 與加密的融合、傳統金融系統上鏈等未來趨勢，聽起來都很樂觀。但宏觀環境還是很關鍵。Dan，你是我們的宏觀與比特幣專家，能不能幫大家簡單分析一下現在的宏觀環境，以及這些因素指向什麼？So we've talked about looking ahead, the convergence of AI and crypto, blockchain rails on TradFi systems. It seems pretty bullish from what we're saying, but then there's also the macro environment at play. And I think, Dan, this is where I do turn to you as the macro and Bitcoin guy, and from a content perspective. So can you give us a run-through of kind of how the macro environment is lining up right now and what kind of things this is pointing to?

18:44你這問題有點突然，不過沒錯，我一直都是宏觀派。其實我原本沒想到美國利率會升這麼多，我覺得這已經有點過頭了。美國就業資料很疲軟，平均時薪只剩 3%，這幾年一路往下。戰爭帶來的油價衝擊也很明顯，美國汽油價格漲到六美元，前所未見，這讓通膨數字被高估了。但 Fed 的 Worsh 和財政部的 Scott Bessent 都很有經驗，他們和我一樣都在 Stan Druckenmiller 的 Duquesne 工作過。我對他們分析全球市場的框架很有信心，這種水準過去三、四十年都沒看過。所以我不擔心美國債市會失控，雖然有人這麼說。但法國真的有問題，法德公債利差創 15 年新高，主要是政治因素。整體來說，宏觀就是評估流動性變化對資產市場的影響。美國市場表面風光，實際上底層有很多企業很慘，S&P 前 10、20 大公司很好，但後面 300 家都很慘，這造成明顯分化。這也是為什麼現在宏觀沒那麼明確，對黃金和比特幣的意義也變得複雜。目前來看，情勢有點混亂。Okay, you surprised me with that one, but yes, you're right, I am a macro guy all the time. I had originally not thought the interest rates in the U.S. would back up to this degree. I really think that it's been overdone. The employment data in the U.S. has been very soft. Average hourly earnings just hit 3%. It's been straight down for the last few years. The oil shock from the war is obviously having impact, and in the U.S. you can see gasoline prices up at six dollars. You've never seen that before. So I think that's artificially inflating some of the inflation numbers. But with the Fed Governor Worsh and Scott Bessent at Treasury managing, I actually feel quite confident. I mean, they both, as I did, they both worked for Stan Druckenmiller, Duquesne. I actually was there between Bessent and Warsh. And, you know, their framework for analyzing world markets is, I think, of a quality that we've never seen before. Like in the U.S., like going back 30, 40 years. So I'm not worried about the bond market losing control. You know, people saying that the bond market's been out of control. But on the other hand, France really does have a problem, and the spread between French and German bonds has blown out to the most in sort of 15 years or so. And that's for political reasons. I do think around the edges, liquidity generally. So what is macro? Macro is assessing changes in liquidity and how they'll affect the broad asset markets. I think broadly underneath the U.S. market, there's a lot of damage that's being done. The top 10, 20 companies are all doing great, but the bottom, you know, 300 in the S&P are just getting killed, and their businesses, I think, are challenged. So there's a real bifurcation, and this is why you're not hearing usually macro. There's a very clear direction, and what that will mean, of course, for gold and Bitcoin, and—I think at the moment, you know, it's a bit of a mixed picture.

21:15數位資產與傳統市場的落差

21:15比特幣、以太幣和整體數位資產這幾年其實大幅落後納斯達克。我認為這種落後即將結束。回想 2021 年，比特幣六萬、以太幣三千多，那時的數位資產生態跟現在比，現在已經成熟很多，有 ETF、DATS、整個生態系都成長好幾倍。其實只是比特幣和以太幣這些指標資產還沒反映底層的發展，所以我認為現在正是進場投資的好時機。And what I would say is that Bitcoin, ETH, digital assets broadly have massively underperformed the Nasdaq in the last few years. And I think that that underperformance is essentially coming to an end. You know, I think about, so stepping a, like for a second, just back from the traditional macro. If you think back to 2021, when Bitcoin was at 60 and ETH were over 3,000, and you look at how developed the digital asset landscape was then versus today, today, it is much more developed, and you have ETFs and all sorts of, you have DATS, you have the whole, the whole ecosystem has grown multiples. So I think it's just the headline assets, Bitcoin and ETH, that are lagging the actual developments underneath. And so therefore, I—and they've massively underperformed the Nasdaq. So I think it's right now is a fantastic time to be long and making investments in our space.

22:32你們同意嗎？如果價格跌但基本面變強，資產就變便宜了。而且這不是什麼複雜的情況，過去沒有穩定幣，現在一年有 50 兆美元交易量；以前沒有 RWA，現在有了；以前沒有永續合約、預測市場，現在都有了。現在只是耐心等待的問題。我有十年期的基金，還好如此。其實加密產業最需要的就是耐心，這在高波動下很難做到。I mean, do you have the same view? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, to your point, if prices are down but fundamentals are up, things are cheap. And they're very clear. It's not like this is a nuanced situation. There were no stablecoins. Now there are $50 trillion of volume. There were no RWAs. Now there are. There were no perps. There was no prediction. There was nothing. So it's just a waiting game. You know, we just have to wait. I have a 10-year life fund, thank goodness. Otherwise, I mean, that's the thing they showed us supply in crypto is patience, right? Correct. And it's hard to be patient against volatility. It's very hard.

23:12穩定幣與全球美元化趨勢

23:12如果我們看到穩定幣的實用性和需求持續成長，而且大多數都是美元計價，這會不會改變長期的宏觀展望？Shiliang，你怎麼看？But also, if we're seeing a drive and increase in utility for stablecoins, mostly majority U.S. dollar denominated, does that also play a shift in long-term macro outlooks? Maybe Shiliang over to you as well.

23:26我們現在看到的是，全球央行層級可能有去美元化的現象，尤其在債券市場，至少短期內是這樣。但長期來看，美國政府其實一直在推動所謂的「再美元化」，也就是讓全球散戶層級更依賴美元。這有點像現代版馬歇爾計畫或軟實力。穩定幣幾乎都是美元計價，全球用得越多，美元流入就越多，這其實是美國政府過去幾年一直在推的方向。所以這個趨勢還會持續。Kind of seeing is at the central bank global level, perhaps a de-dollarization that's kind of happening with the bond markets, right? At least temporary, short term. What we've seen longer term, and the administration has been pushing, call it the more grassroots. You know, call it retail level globally is kind of the re-dollarization of the world, right? And it's almost like a modern Marshall Plan or soft power, whatever you want to call it, right? Stablecoins generally are denominated in the U.S. dollar, and the more usage of stablecoins globally ultimately results in more inflow to the dollar, and that's been a message and a push from the administration, you know, for the past couple of years, right? So I think that's been a continued shift that we're seeing.

24:20這跟加密市場的關聯是，我們現在其實把加密市場分成兩大類：一類是像比特幣這種硬資產，雖然過去幾年落後納斯達克，但未來還是會被當作硬資產看待，長期會追上。另一類則是穩定幣推動的美元化，從支付、傳統金融到穩定幣，這是另一個主軸。其他的資產就比較偏向風險性資產，市場會用風險偏好來看待。And then how that ties to maybe crypto markets, I think generally we're judging the crypto markets in a bifurcated manner, right? We have kind of hard assets, Bitcoin, yes, it's underperformed the Nasdaq, you know, the past few years. But I think it'll continue to be judged as a hard asset, and it'll catch up over time. And then there's kind of the stablecoin dollarization of the crypto markets, right, which is kind of everything from like payments to TradFi to stablecoins. So that's kind of how I would say the crypto markets have bifurcated in general, and then everything else is more just risk-on, risk-off assets.

25:02資產上鏈與未來機會

25:02我想補充一點，你剛剛說得對，這不是傳統宏觀，但穩定幣的出現和成長，對美元和鏈上資產都是巨大的正面因素。在我看來，我們現在才剛進入流動性資產上鏈的第一、二局，這已經是必然趨勢。對我來說，最終的聖杯一直是非流動性資產的上鏈，像房地產這種基本上被凍結的資產，這塊還完全沒開始。未來產業最大的成長空間，就是把這些非流動性資產上鏈，這是最難但最需要的事。Let me just say one thing. I think you're right to point out it's not traditional macro, but that the advent of stablecoins and the growth is a huge positive macro factor, not just for the dollar, but for assets on chain. So, in my worldview of, like, where we're going, we're in the first inning or two of the tokenization of liquid assets, and I think that's a foregone conclusion. The holy grail for me, and it has always been this from even six, seven years ago, was the tokenization of illiquid assets. And so that hasn't even started. So when I think about where are we in the growth of our space, the hardest, most difficult thing, but most needed, is the tokenization of illiquid assets, essentially real estate that's largely frozen. And there are all sorts of other illiquid assets. So I think if you like. Think about, like, what am I doing? Should I be in this industry? Is this what's going to happen? To me, the end state is when all of those things, the illiquid things, are tokenized, and that hasn't even begun yet.

26:16我也想補充，現在的宏觀環境其實帶來機會，因為我們正處於一個多年代的科技循環，而且已經進入應用階段。雖然宏觀因素像長天期利率會壓抑價格，但這些價格未必反映真實的採用曲線。這反而是管理長週期、利用宏觀波動創造交易和投資機會的好時機。Yeah, and also, I'd just add maybe that the macro provides an opportunity because we've got a multi-decade technology cycle, and we're at the application phase, and that—it moves in macro factors such as the long end. They put pressure on prices. Those prices don't necessarily reflect what the adoption curve is doing. So I see those as good opportunities to manage a long cycle with some of the macro volatility that creates those opportunities to trade and invest.

26:46展望明年：關鍵議題預測

26:46現在只剩一兩分鐘，我想請大家預測一下，如果我們快轉到明年 TOKEN2049，你覺得明年主舞台上最重要的討論會是什麼？可能是非流動性資產上鏈、agentic AI 支付、或是更進階的金融基礎建設。It's such an interesting time. Now I know we have one, two minutes left. I want to ask each of you. If we fast forward to Token 2049 next year, what do you think one of the key conversations that will be on the stage? And it could be tokenization of illiquid assets, it can be agentic AI payments and the rails beyond them.

27:07我覺得如果明年回頭看，大家會問：我們怎麼會錯過這麼明顯的機會？現在市場交易量幾乎在谷底，大家常忘記加密市場週期變化有多快，不管是下跌還是反彈。現在交易量比 2025 年底少了 80%，這對投資人來說很難熬，但我們以前也經歷過。上次 2021 到 2022 年市場也跌了 80%，之後又漲了 16 倍。所以只要保持長線觀點，關注採用和成長速度，市場情緒和基本面都會很快反彈。加密還是很小的資產類別，只要一點資本重新配置、更多關注，就能看到爆發性成長。希望明年我們會討論，怎麼去年會錯過這麼多明顯的機會。Look, I think if we look back in a year's time, how did I miss it? So everything we look at now is particularly from a volume perspective in the market, is near the bottom or close to the bottom of a cycle. And I think people in crypto are good at forgetting that how quickly cycles turn in crypto, and that's both on the downside and the upside. But if you look at the volume cycle, and particularly in terms of trading and liquidity, which is sort of the key activity that happens in crypto and the key revenue generator. Now it's down 80% from where it was in late 2025, right? And, you know, that's a hard thing to go through as an investor. But we've done it before. Like, the market's drawn down 80% last time from 2021 to 2022, and then it grew 16x on the back of that, right? So I think just, you know, keeping the longer-term view around adoption and where things can go and how quickly. Sentiment changes in crypto, and then how quickly the fundamentals rebound as well, because it still is a relatively small asset class, and it doesn't take much of reallocation, much more attention to really see things accelerate. So I'd hope next year we're talking about how did we miss so many obvious things a year ago.

28:18我想提出一個反向觀點，也許明年整個會議的焦點會變成比特幣，因為它已經漲到 25 萬美元。以太幣也會跟上，變成大家都在討論核心資產，而不是現在這些話題。ETH 八千、BTC 二十五萬，大家都會瘋狂討論這些主資產。A little bit contrarian, but what about the idea that the whole conference, and this is a lot of—you know, it tends to be a broad cryptocurrency, but that Bitcoin becomes the center of the conference because it's trading at 250,000. And I would say ETH, you know, would come along too, so that it becomes less about all these things we're talking about now, and ETH at 8,000 and Bitcoin at 250. Everyone's going to be running around talking about the core assets of the space.

28:50從金融市場角度來看，也許明年會有像「算力市場」這樣的新主題。作為交易員，我很期待這個市場能發展成真正有流動性的市場，這跟加密市場有交集。我們現在還在摸索監管和結算指數的問題，希望明年這時候 CME 能批准，市場變得更有流動性。這會是我們這種交易公司很期待參與的全新市場。I would say maybe, at least from a financial market perspective, perhaps like compute markets, right? I think as a trader, I'm hopeful that that does develop into a real liquid marketplace. It intersects a bit with the crypto markets. We're just figuring that out now from a regulatory perspective in terms of settlement indices. Hopefully by this time next year, CME will actually approve everything and there will be liquid markets there. But that's an area that, you know, I'm hopeful a completely new market that trading firms like ours can participate in.

29:25我認為明年的關鍵字會是「分散」。你會看到一些大贏家和大輸家，這跟我們現在所處的週期有關。未來市場不再看平均表現，而是看價值在哪、誰能抓住價值。我預期會有一些現在市值 20 億美元的公司，明年這時候已經變成 200 億美元以上的巨頭。I think the word will be dispersion. I think you'll see some big winners and some big losers. That's a function of where we are in the cycle. But it'll be less about the average performance, more about where's the market value, where's the value capture. And I think on that basis, we'll have some very, very large companies, which are probably 2 billion now, which will be 20 billion plus when we sit down here next year.

29:49太棒了，各位，今天謝謝你們的精彩分享。很高興能和大家一起討論這些觀點。Fantastic. Well, watch this space, gentlemen. Thank you so much for the insights today. Such a pleasure. Thank you.