Franklyn Wang：AI 時代的智慧投資與 CoInvest 願景

0:00資本主義的本質與不完美

0:00很高興來到這裡，再次回到新加坡總是讓人開心。我現在站在跟去年同一個舞台、差不多同一個時間。我是Franklyn，Liquid的執行長，今天很興奮要跟大家分享Liquid、CoInvest，還有更遠大的願景。It's a pleasure to be here. It's always nice to be in Singapore again. I'm in the exact same stage as last year at around like the same time. I'm Franklin, CEO of Liquid, and today I'm super excited to talk about Liquid, CoInvest, and beyond.

0:23大家知道這位是誰嗎？這是Adam Smith，現代資本主義的創始人。他寫了《國富論》，被認為是西方文明最偉大的著作之一。我們都知道資本主義這個詞，但資本主義到底是什麼？資本主義的核心，是市場的無形之手會找到資源在經濟中最有效的配置方式。Does anyone know who this guy is? Anyone? Come on, does anyone know who this is? This is Adam Smith, the founder of modern capitalism. He wrote The Wealth of Nations, which is widely viewed as one of the greatest works of Western civilization. Now, we all know the word capitalism, but what is capitalism really? Capitalism is the idea that the invisible hand of the market finds the optimal allocation of resources in the economy.

1:02這個想法對很多人來說很直觀，但我本來是學數學的，這對我來說其實很奇怪。在數學裡，誰有最好的想法誰就贏，不是誰有最多錢。但現實世界裡，如果你有想法但沒有資本，那就只是一個想法，永遠不會成真。資本非常重要，它決定哪些創業者能獲得支持、什麼會被發明、什麼基礎建設會被建起來。Now, this seems obvious to many, but before this, I was actually a mathematician by training, and this was a very strange concept to me. In math, it's really whoever has the best idea wins. It's not who has the most money or whatever else. But it turns out in the world, if you have an idea but no capital, it stays like that. It's just an idea. It's never anything more. Capital is incredibly important. It determines which founders get backed, what gets invented, and what infrastructure gets built.

1:36但世界不一定要這樣運作。像計畫經濟就是由中央規劃者分配一切。但資本主義的理念是，這樣能為世界帶來最好的結果。這聽起來很棒，但現實總是如此嗎？其實有一個很大的變數：人。人經常做出非常不理性的決定。如果有一個最佳策略和一個不理性的選擇，人們往往會選擇那個不理性的。假如大家都理性，資本主義就完美了，但現實不是這樣。It doesn't have to be this way. There are things like in a command economy, where everything is allocated by one central planner. But the idea of capitalism is that this produces the best possible outcomes for the world. Now, that seems like a great idea, but does it always happen? There's one thing that complicates this. It's people. People often make deeply irrational decisions. If there's a place with an optimal strategy and an irrational decision, people can often be reliably counted on to choose the irrational decision. If people didn't make irrational decisions, capitalism would be perfect. But instead, it's slightly flawed.

2:21資訊不對稱與金融現實

2:21資本主義不完美的根本原因，是一切都建立在資訊不對稱上。這對加密圈的人來說應該很容易理解。像是有些KOL會推銷meme幣，然後反手砸盤。有個我很親近的人，曾經被騙走一百萬美元，騙子聯絡他奶奶說『你要匯錢，不然你孫子會出事』。還有內線交易，有人提前知道併購消息，然後直接下單。這些有合法的，也有非法的，但共通點是：有人知道你不知道的事。Fundamentally, the reason why capitalism doesn't always work is because everything runs on asymmetric information. I think it's very clear and very easy to explain to crypto people why this is. An influencer might shill a meme coin and then dump on their followers. A person very close to me was actually scammed of a million dollars. A scammer contacted their grandma and said, You need to wire some money here, or else. Your grandson is going to disappear. There's things like insider trading. Someone is told that some merger is happening, and then someone makes a trade directly on top of it. Now some of this is legal, some of it is illegal, but they all have one thing in common. Someone knows something that you don't.

3:06在金融市場，不論好壞，錢總是從資訊較少的人流向資訊較多的人。現在的市場動態正好體現這點。造市商有更好的資料、更強的情報、更快的執行力，遠勝於一般散戶。這導致更高的手續費、滑價，市場上大部分的錢都進了造市商口袋，散戶則賺不到什麼錢。這一切看起來好像就是現實，但如果只是這樣，這場演講就太無聊了。In finance, for better or worse, the money always goes from those with less sophistication to those with more sophistication. The current market dynamics, I think, really epitomize this. Market makers have better data, better intelligence, and better execution than almost any retail trader. This leads to higher fees, slippage, and generally involves the market makers making a lot of money. And the retail not having a lot of money at all. What's interesting here is that the slide show could just end here, and you could be like, Oh yeah, this is just how things are. But that would be a very boring talk.

3:44AI顛覆金融遊戲規則

3:44但我認為AI可以徹底改變這個局面。大家都知道，最近AI解決了很多人類無法解決的難題，像是數學界的Navier-Stokes問題，Claude的數學能力，OpenAI在國際數學奧林匹亞拿到金牌。這些都證明AI在認知能力上已經超越人類。Instead, I think AI can flip the script. As you guys know, AI has solved a tremendous amount of great problems unknown to man as of recently. All these math problems, the Navier-Stokes problem. Claude's mathematical capabilities, OpenAI earning a gold medal at the IMO. These show that AI, in many ways, is much stronger than people are at cognitive abilities.

4:08我以前在Two Sigma工作，那是全球最大的量化基金之一。我們一直相信自己數學很強，所以能打敗所有人。但現在情況不同了，AI的數學能力越來越強，很快就會超越人類。這也是我離開Two Sigma的原因，因為未來大家都能用AI，沒有人能再靠自己比別人聰明。以前這些基金能請到世界頂尖的數學家，但現在大家都能用同樣的AI，這讓競爭變得公平。I used to work at Two Sigma, one of the largest quant funds in the world. And one of the things we believed was that we were really good at math, so we were always going to beat everyone. But that's different now. You could clearly see that AI was getting better and better at math and soon it would overtake people. That's when I left Two Sigma because I thought there'd be no way we could outcompete people in the future. Like, everyone would have AI and we would all be equally smart. East funds used to be able to hire the best mathematicians in the world, and you probably couldn't hire the best mathematicians in the world. But you use the same AI that they all do, and that gives you a chance to level the playing field.

4:51我們去年四月就在思考這個問題。那時候比特幣下跌，我們也在想AI的未來會怎麼發展。我對『資本主義奇點』這個想法非常興奮。金融本質上就是資訊多的人賺資訊少的人的錢，但有了AI，大家的資訊和智慧都差不多，沒有人比AI更聰明。這會帶來資本主義的奇點——一旦進入這個點，世界就再也回不去了，未來會完全不同。We thought about this idea last April. It was April. We were thinking about, you know, Bitcoin was down, and we were sort of thinking about where the future of AI was going to lead us. And I got really excited about this idea of the singularity of capitalism. All of finance is just people with more information taking money from people with less information. But suddenly with AI, it seemed like there was a real chance to change that. With AI, somehow everyone would be roughly equally smart, because no matter how smart you are, you aren't smarter than AI. And I thought that was very powerful, and I thought that could lead to a singularity of capitalism. For those of you who are familiar with cosmology, A singularity is a point of no return. Once you go through a singularity, there is no way to go back. You go in, and everything beyond there is completely unpredictable from what comes before.

5:42我們已經在很多領域看到這種奇點的出現，像是寫程式。我認為交易也即將進入這個時刻。We're starting to see this in many fields like coding, and I think trading is about to hit that moment as well.

5:49Liquid與CoInvest：AI賦能全民交易

5:49Liquid已經在大規模實踐這個願景。我們有超過七萬五千名使用者，遍布170個國家，累積交易量超過50億美元，並且已經募資超過2600萬美元。Liquid讓你隨時隨地、用任何方式交易任何資產，包括股票、未上市公司、指數、商品、外匯、加密貨幣和預測市場，全天候24小時不打烊，最高可用50倍槓桿。Liquid is already building this vision at scale. We have 70,000 plus users. These are actually old slides. We're now at 75,000. We have users in 170 countries. We've processed $5 billion of trading volume, and we've raised over $26 million to build this vision. Liquid lets you trade anything, anytime, anyhow. Using Liquid, you can trade stocks, pre-IPO instruments, indices, commodities. FX, crypto, and prediction markets. It lets you trade them 24/7 with markets that never close, and it lets you trade any how. We support up to 50x max leverage across all of our markets.

6:30在AI方面，我們打造了CoInvest，這是全球第一個可以直接透過AI助理（像Claude和ChatGPT）下單交易的方式。而且完全免費。我們和OpenAI、SpaceX有官方合作，並且已經在ChatGPT和Grokbot裡有原生整合。你只要在ChatGPT或Grokbot輸入『安裝Coinvest』，就能直接開始用CoInvest下單。我們很自豪能有這些合作，這花了好幾個月才實現。我們相信，既然AI能讓每個人都做出超強的金融決策，那就應該把交易功能放在大家最常用的AI裡面。On the AI front, we built CoInvest, the first ever way to trade directly through AI assistants like Claude and ChatGPT. Furthermore, it's completely free. We have official partnerships with OpenAI and SpaceX. We have first-party integrations inside of ChatGPT and Grokbot. For example, if you go to ChatGPT right now or Grokbot and say, Install Coinvest, you can instantly start using Coinvest inside your ChatGPT or your Grokbot. We're very proud of these collaborations. They took many months to come to fruition, but we truly believe. That if AI is going to let everyone make superpowered financial decisions, we should put the financial decisions exactly where people already use their AI, in ChatGPT and Grokbot.

7:16我們的平台也支援Claude、Meta Muse、SMS和Gemini。看到CoInvest逐步實現真的很令人振奮。從上線到達到一百萬次工具呼叫（也就是訊息量），只花了三個月。最近我們發現，現在每三天CoInvest就會被呼叫數百萬次。這讓我們非常興奮，也讓我們更有動力推動『每個人都能用超級智慧做金融決策』這個使命。Furthermore, our platform works with Claude, Meta Muse, SMS, and Gemini. It's been really amazing watching CoInvest come to fruition. It took us about three months. For CoInvest to reach one million tool calls, that's like messages sent to CoInvest. But as of recently, we found that every three days, CoInvest is invoked millions of times. This has been super exciting to us, and we're really excited to be furthering the mission that everyone should be able to use superintelligence to make all of their financial decisions.

7:49AI助理交易的未來與實驗

7:49CoInvest有個很特別的地方，就是它讓你做個人化的決策。你可以用CoInvest說『幫我買這個』，但最後還是要你自己按下確認。為了安全，很多介面目前只能做到這樣。我們問過ChatGPT能不能讓使用者自動交易，他們說『不行，這太強大了，我們不想負責』。但我們也展示過，如果讓CoInvest完全自動運作，會有多強大。Furthermore, CoInvest is kind of a special product in that it lets you make personal decisions. Using CoInvest, you can say, Let me buy this, but you have to make the final decision. For safety reasons, this is kind of the most we can do in many interfaces. We told ChatGPT, Can we let people trade automatically? And they were like, No, that's too powerful. We don't want to take responsibility. But we've also shown the power of what you can do if you let Coinvest run wild and run automatically.

8:18我們用CoInvest做了一個預測市場策略。這不是很正式的專案，我只是花了一個週末用CoInvest寫了一個預測市場策略。三週內，這個策略的Sharpe ratio就達到8，還登上outcome.xyz排行榜第二名。你只要開啟這個策略，就會自動產生持倉和交易，完全不用自己動手。這就像你自己開了一家量化基金，但不需要上千人和數學博士，一個人就能做到。我們認為這就是未來的縮影。Using Coinvest, we built a prediction market strategy. This was not something we did very seriously. I spent a weekend and used Coinvest to build a prediction market strategy. It's been about three weeks since we built this strategy. Within those three weeks, we've already reached a Sharpe ratio of eight. And we're number two on the outcome.xyz leaderboard. With this strategy, you're able to just turn it on and you just see positions and trades happen automatically. You aren't doing anything. It's kind of like being a quant fund, but instead of needing thousands of people and math PhDs, you can do this with just one person. It's really quite remarkable, and we think it's a glimpse into what the future looks like.

8:58這裡有一段影片，展示用AI自動交易15分鐘漲跌的樣子。你可以看到訂單自動進出，完全自動化。你什麼都不用做，只要看著交易自動發生。這真的很驚人，未來的交易可能就是這樣，不用再自己點按鈕，訂單和持倉會自動出現。當然你不一定每次都贏，但這就是我們想像的未來。We have here a video of what it looks like to be trading 15-minute up-downs with AI. You can see the orders going in and out. These are all completely automated. As you can see, you know, you're not doing anything. You're just watching trades happen in and out and in and out. It's really quite remarkable. This is what trading could look like in the future. You won't need to click the buttons. The orders will just appear. The positions will appear. And I think in this case, you know, you might not always win, but, you know, it happens. This is what we think the future of trading could look like. You're not pressing any buttons. You're having an AI make all the trades for you.

9:35全民智慧投資的願景

9:35有個有趣的資料：Liquid歷史上總共處理過約200萬筆交易，而我們的AI代理人在三週內就下了50萬筆單，還遇到多次速率限制和擴展挑戰。我們希望有一天，所有人都能用最強大的系統來投資。加密貨幣讓全球都能交易，我們相信全民交易就該配全民智慧。更好的交易體驗，會帶來更好的資本主義。如果你有興趣，歡迎寫信給我 franklin@liquid.trade 或會後找我聊。謝謝大家，很榮幸來到這裡。As a fun fact, in the history of Liquid, we've processed about 2 million trades total. Within about three weeks, our agent made 500,000 trades. Leading into, like, multiple rate limits and other associated properties with scaling. We yearn for a world in which everyone has access to the most powerful systems to invest. Crypto is universal trading, and we think that universal trading deserves universal intelligence. We think better trading will yield a better form of capitalism, as we've just described. If you're interested, feel free to get in touch with me at franklin@liquid.trade or talk to me afterwards. Thank you, and it's a great pleasure to be here.