Definitive 共同創辦人 Dennis Qian：戰壕交易必備三大指標（VWAP、UPNL、價格影響）

0:00Definitive Finance 與戰壕交易簡介

0:00大家好，我是 Definitive Finance 的共同創辦人。我們是一個專注於 EVM 和 Solana 上鏈幣種的交易應用程式。八月份，我們有一半的用戶是賺錢的，這到底是怎麼做到的呢？I'm the co-founder of Definitive Finance. We are a trading application for on-chain tokens, EVM and Solana. And in the month of August, 50% of our traders were profitable. And how did that happen?

0:18八月初，我們打造了三個工具，幫助大家掌握戰壕交易。我今天會帶大家快速走過這三個工具。所謂戰壕，就是專門針對低到中市值幣種的交易，像是市值一千萬到五千萬美金的幣，這些都是戰壕玩家的主戰場。At the beginning of August, we created these three tools to master the trenches. I'm going to walk through these three tools for you. So first, if you're familiar with the trenches, it's basically low to medium cap trading. So think about 10 to 50 million market cap coins that these traders are trading.

0:39戰壕交易的特點就是一切都很透明，你可以看到流動池和交易者的所有動態，全部都在鏈上公開。你可以自己做分析，判斷什麼時候該獲利了結，或是這個幣是不是已經超買或超賣。我們的 App 讓這件事變得更簡單。And the unique thing about the trenches is that everything is transparent. You can see everything that happens with these liquidity pools and with these traders on-chain. You can do analysis on it, and you can make your own judgment on when you want to take profit, whether or not the token is overbought or oversold. And we made that much easier with our app.

0:59戰壕交易的趨勢與鏈上分析優勢

0:59現在沒有人再去碰主流幣或大市值幣了。就像 Ran 之前說的，這一輪賺錢的機會都在這些低市值、Launchpad 幣、中市值幣、迷因幣，還有新鏈上的幣。這些交易全部都在鏈上公開，根本不會進到中心化交易所。一旦進了中心化交易所，你就看不到這些交易細節，也沒辦法分析流動性或交易者行為。No one trades these majors and large caps anymore. Similar to what Ran said earlier, a lot of the money being made this cycle is going to be on these lower caps, these launchpad tokens, these mid caps, meme coins on these new chains. And then finally, like all of these trades that are happening on-chain, completely visible and in the open. None of it ever reaches these centralized exchanges. The moment something reaches a centralized exchange, you no longer see the trades happening. You don't, you can't do analysis on that liquidity. You can't do analysis on those traders.

1:39只要交易都還在鏈上，市值在五千萬到五億美金之間，你就可以做很多很酷的分析，這些都是我接下來要展示給大家的。But if it always stays on chain and still trades between, you know, 50 to 500 million market cap, you get to do all of this cool analysis that I'm about to show you.

1:49三大核心問題：價格影響、VWAP、UPNL

1:49如果你能在鏈上看到某個特定代幣的所有交易和所有交易者，那你可以做什麼？其實，你可以回答三個問題。首先，你可以回答：要移動價格需要多少資金？我認為你會很驚訝，其實並不需要很多錢就能把一個代幣的市值從零美元推升到十億美元。If you can see all the trades and all the traders of a particular token on-chain, what can you do with it? Well, there's three questions you can answer. So first, you can answer how much does it take to move the price? And I think you'd be surprised that it doesn't take a lot of money to send a token from zero dollars to a billion dollars in market cap.

2:10第二，市場實際上花了多少錢買到這個價格？也就是說，所有交易者加總起來，平均到底花了多少錢買這個幣？這樣你就能知道誰在賺錢、他們怎麼操作。第三，持有者現在的未實現損益是多少？誰還在抱著？他們帳面上賺多少？是不是有人已經虧了 50%？Secondly, what did the market pay? What did all the traders in aggregate pay to trade that token at any moment in time? Wouldn't that be really nice to know, to see, like, who's in profit and how they're trading? And thirdly, what are the holders sitting on? Like, who's profitable? Who's still holding the token? How much profit are they on? Are they suffering from a 50% loss? What's that average even look like?

2:35市值迷思與流動性陷阱

2:35進入技術細節前，先上一課：幣的市值其實完全沒意義。現在用手機和兩萬美金就能發一個五億市值的幣，因為流動性和 Launchpad 讓這一切變得超簡單。你可以用任何金額決定發行時的市值，從一塊美金到五十萬都行。跟上一輪牛市大家只看市值不同，現在這一招已經沒用了。Before we can hop into the science, first you need to learn some stuff. So here's a lesson. First lesson is the market cap for a token is completely meaningless. Today, with my phone actually, I can probably launch a 500 million market cap token with just 20K. And liquidity and launchpads have made this much easier. You can choose the market cap that you launch with, with any amount of money, from a dollar to 500K, whatever you want. You can define that market cap. So unlike last cycle, where everyone focused so heavily on market cap, you can't do that anymore.

3:14你可能會注意到，現在幾乎沒有任何代幣能夠維持在十億美元的市值了。為什麼會這樣呢？因為現在支撐這些代幣的流動性非常少，所以當某個代幣市值一碰到十億美元時，人們就會想：「天啊，我記得上個週期那個代幣也曾經衝到十億。這就是我該賣掉、賺一大筆錢的時候了。」於是他們就賣出，然後市場立刻出現拋售潮，因為這一輪週期其實並沒有像過去週期那樣累積起足夠的流動性來支撐價格。And you might notice that, like, almost no tokens stay at a billion dollars anymore. Why is that? Well, because there's so little liquidity keeping these tokens afloat that the moment it hits a billion, people are like, Oh my God, I remember that token hit a billion last cycle. This part is where I get to sell and make a ton of money. So they sell, and immediately it's a sellover because there's not actually that built-up liquidity that we're used to from previous cycles in this cycle.

3:43這是真實案例。有時候只要 10 美元。一個交易者的買入動作，就能讓市值增加一千美元。所以如果我想把一個代幣的市值，從一千萬美元推升到五億美元，我可能只需要不到一百萬美元就能做到。想想看，只用一百萬美元，就能增加將近五億美元的市值。所需的資金其實這麼少。And this is a real case. Sometimes $10. A buy action from a trader can move a market cap a thousand dollars. So if I wanted to send a token from $10 million market cap to $500 million, it probably will only take me less than a million dollars to do that. Think about that, like adding almost $500 million of market cap with just $1 million. That's as little as it takes.

4:09你會發現最近有些 K 線圖特別劇烈，這通常是因為流動性很淺，出場門很小，價格波動就很大。如果流動性深，K 線就很平穩，波動小。You might notice. Some candlestick charts look a bit more rockier than others lately. Typically, something with a small exit door, aka low liquidity underneath the token, will have these volatile wicks. But something with deeper liquidity relative to market cap will be very stable, small wicks.

4:30價格影響分析工具與案例

4:30這基本上就是我們打造的這個工具，也就是價格衝擊分析。當你預估你的交易即將進入某個代幣的流動性池時，價格衝擊會精確告訴你這個代幣底下實際有多少流動性。那我們來舉個例子好了。我們來看看 Marscoin。這是一個在 BSC 上非常熱門的幣，現在市值大約是一億美金。你可以看到，要把這個代幣推升到五億美金市值，也就是價格大約漲四到五倍，其實只需要一百萬美金的淨買盤。反過來說也是一樣，你知道嗎？如果要讓它價格下跌大約 60%，只需要賣出四十萬或三十萬美金。想想看，這真的很瘋狂，對吧？其實不需要太多資金就能造成這些劇烈的波動。This is basically the tool that we built, which is a price impact analysis. The price impact, when you estimate your trade that's about to hit the token's liquidity pool, is going to tell you exactly how much liquidity is underneath that token. So let's just take an example here. Let's look at Marscoin. It's a very big BSC runner. It's about a hundred million market cap today. You can see. To send that token to 500 million market cap at about a 4x, 5x in price, it's only going to take a million dollars of net buyer action. It goes the other way as well. You know, to send it down maybe 60% in price lower, only 400K or 300K needs to be sold. Crazy to think about, right? Like, not a lot of money to make these swings happen.

5:14在 Base 上這裡有一個市值較小的幣，市值大約一千萬美元。如果我們想想 Binance 或 Mars coin 要漲到五億美元市值花了多少力氣，你可以看到在這裡其實需要更多的努力，因為流動性深度更高。我們要把市值從一千萬推到五千萬，你大概又需要五十萬美元。而這裡有點奇怪，我注意到最近很多人在討論 Backpack。如果你看 Backpack 的流動性分布，基本上在十億美元以上就沒有流動性了。而且要推到十億美元市值，其實只需要兩百五十萬美元。所以你得問問自己，這個流動性結構到底長什麼樣？這些代幣要真的移動起來，到底需要什麼條件？在這個流動性結構裡，我會是賣方還是買方？A smaller market cap coin on Base here, $10 million. If we think about how much it took Binance or the Mars coin to move to $500 million, you can see that here it takes a lot more work because the liquidity is much deeper. We've got to move to $10 to $50 million, you need about 500K again. And then this one's a little weird. I noticed that, you know, there's a lot of talk about Backpack. If you look at Backpack's liquidity profile, there's basically no liquidity above $1 billion. And to just get to $1 billion, you only need $2.5 million. So you got to ask yourself, like, how's the liquidity shape looking, and, you know, what will it really take for these tokens to move? You know, am I going to be the seller or the buyer in that liquidity shape?

6:03VWAP：成交量加權平均價的應用

6:03什麼是 VWAP？VWAP 就是成交量加權平均價，代表市場實際花多少錢把價格推到這裡。這條黃色線就是 VWAP，每一筆交易都算進去，平均下來就是這個數字。這指標很簡單，TradingView 也能用。我們來看幾種常見的 VWAP 走勢。So what is VWAP? VWAP is volume weighted average price. It's basically what the market actually paid to get that price to get here. So this yellow line here is VWAP. Every trade that goes through the liquidity pool, you just figure out how much volume went through, what the price was. And then you just average it. That's a very simple metric. You can do it on TradingView today. And we're going to walk through a couple of patterns of common VWAPs that you might notice.

6:31這是一個非常正常、合法的案例，我會這麼說。代幣發行時，通常一開始走勢很溫和，會多次回測VWAP（成交量加權平均價），然後出現一根大K棒，很多人會在這時獲利了結。接著走勢會繼續，你可以看到K棒會自然地沿著VWAP線波動，非常有機，是很棒的代幣。只要看到這種型態，我都會買進。 在這裡，我們看到剛剛那種型態的更成熟版本，在高點時你會開始看到比較小的K棒，VWAP也越來越貼近K棒。這代表有大量交易和獲利了結在發生，同時也有一些新買家在高點進場，所以上方有很多換手。通常，當這種換手結束後，走勢可能會往任一方向發展。如果大家都認賠出場，價格可能會跌破VWAP；但如果有新持有者進場，走勢也可能會繼續上漲。So this is a very normal, legitimate one, I'd say. Token launches, it starts very soft. It retests the VWAP a couple of times, a big candle, a lot of people taking profit. And then continues onwards, you can see this, like, natural shape of the candles following the VWAP line. Very organic, great token. I would always buy this shape. Here we see a more mature version of what we just saw, where at the top you'll start seeing these, like, smaller candles, and the VWAP start getting closer and closer to the candles. What that means is that there's a lot of trading and profit-taking happening, with some new buyers also happening at the top. So a lot of churn up there. And typically, when this churn is done, it can go either way. It can crash below the VWAP when everyone capitulates, or it can continue going because you got new holders.

7:17現在這是最重要的圖表。你可以看到一條平坦的VWAP（成交量加權平均價）線。然後你會看到所有這些K線價格走勢都遠高於VWAP。在我看來，這是不合理的，因為實際上並沒有產生大量的成交量來推動這個價格。有人移除了該代幣下方的流動性，才造成了這種走勢。這種情況在價格下跌時也會發生。你會看到K線跌破VWAP，然後……你知道，交易者在我們平台上很常關注的一件事，就是什麼時候該買回那些已經回調的代幣。Now this is the mosts chart. You have a flat VWAP. And then you see all this candle price action way above VWAP. That is not legitimate in my eyes, because you're not actually creating a lot of volume to move this price. Someone has removed the liquidity underneath that token to create this pattern. This is the other way on the way down. You'll see the candles dip below VWAP, and then. You know, a very common thing that traders look for on our platform is when do I buy back in to a token that's kind of scaled back?

7:51通常當K線重新站上那條VWAP，並且有回測VWAP的時候，只有在這種情況下你才應該買進那個代幣，因為這代表該代幣的交易者和持有者已經完成了全面的換手。這樣才能讓未來有一個新的成本基礎。Well, typically when the candles reclaim that VWAP, and when there's a retest of that VWAP, only then should you buy that token because it means there's been a full exchange of traders and holders of that token. To allow a new cost basis going forward.

8:07VWAP 實戰案例與獲利策略

8:07一個代幣的完整生命週期通常就是像這樣一路往上。你可以看到我畫的這些虛線，基本上是VWAP線的2倍和3倍。這些通常是這些小市值代幣的獲利了結點。我們等一下會用一些你可能很熟悉的真實代幣來舉例，這些代幣都遵循這個趨勢。像是Orbio，這裡非常受歡迎的AI驅動幣，你可以看到2倍和3倍的VWAP線每次都剛好覆蓋到那個上影線，讓你可以獲利了結。即使是2倍的VWAP，也會給你一些小機會獲利了結再買回來。它幾乎從來沒有去測試那個VWAP的下緣。我記得其實最近，這張圖是舊的，它確實有去測試過。但在早期，你會有機會做波段交易然後重新進場。So a full life cycle of a token typically looks like this, all the way up. And you can see these dotted lines that I drew are basically 2x and 3x the VWAP line. Those are typical take profit levels for these low-cap tokens. And we'll show you some real examples in a bit of real tokens that you're probably familiar with. That follow this trend. So Orbio, very popular AI-driven coin here. You can see that the 2x and 3x VWAPs nicely cover that top wick every time you want to take profit. Even the 2x gives you mini opportunities to take profit and buy in. It never really tests that lower bound VWAP. I think actually more recently, this is an old chart, it did test it. But early on, you get an opportunity to do that swing trade and re-enter.

8:56再來看 Cash Cat，Robinhood chain 上最強的迷因幣之一。它多次拉升，Vlad 發推、Robinhood 上架都帶來巨大行情，2 倍 VWAP 就是很好的獲利點。現在價格在 VWAP 上方盤整，如果能守住這裡就是很好的進場點。Kate 這個幣很奇怪，操控痕跡重，但進出點意外地好，多次碰到 2 倍、3 倍 VWAP，現在第三次回測 VWAP。Mars coin 也是類似型態，現在正在測試 VWAP，值得關注。We look at Cash Cat, one of the best meme coins on Robinhood chain. Multiple opportunities here where it ran up, and then Vlad also tweeted it, and then Robinhood also listed it. So it creates these huge price action moments where you get to take profit at 2x VWAP. Now it's sort of consolidating right above where the current VWAP is. Great time to enter if it holds that level. Kate, really weird coin, highly manipulated, but surprisingly great entries and exits here. Touches the 2x and 3x multiple times, and now on its third retest of the VWAP, not there yet. And then again, Mars coin, very similar shape, testing that VWAP right now, so it might be a good time to pay attention and buy.

9:39UPNL：未實現損益的風險指標

9:39我接下來想要談的最後一個指標比較複雜，而且很難計算，但我們的應用程式讓這個計算變得非常簡單。這個指標叫做 UPNL，UPNL 代表未實現損益。想像一下，如果我可以告訴你，所有某一個幣的持有者，整體來說，他們目前的獲利狀況是怎麼樣，他們賺了多少錢。你會不會想知道？如果你發現有超過 90% 的持幣者都是賺錢的，而且他們的獲利非常可觀，每個人都超過 50% 的獲利。這樣你會不會覺得緊張？你會不會想要考慮賣掉那個代幣，因為有這麼多人手上都還只是帳面獲利？Now the last metric I want to talk to is a little more complex, and it's very hard to calculate, but our app makes it very easy to calculate. It's called UPNL, and UPNL stands for unrealized profit and loss. So imagine I could tell you, in aggregate, all the holders of a coin, how much profit they're in or how much profit they have. Wouldn't you want to know? What if you learned that over 90% of the holders of a coin are profitable, and they're in tremendous profit, like over 50% profit each. Doesn't that make you nervous? Wouldn't you want to maybe sell out of that token because so many people are sitting on paper profits?

10:18所以我們能夠計算這個，而計算總體未實現盈虧（UPNL）的一部分，就是要了解你什麼時候想要獲利了結。它不像加權平均價格（BWAP）那樣告訴你什麼時候該進場買入，但它會精確地告訴你什麼時候市場過熱，也許所有持有者都變得有點過於亢奮了。在這裡，有些時刻是有90%的錢包處於獲利狀態。通常這會發生在代幣創下歷史新高、價格不斷突破新高的時候。而在這些時刻，就是你需要開始注意、考慮賣出或獲利了結的時候。So we're able to calculate this, and part of calculating aggregate UPNL is understanding when you want to take profit. So it doesn't really tell you when you want to buy in like BWAP does, but it tells you exactly when things are overbought and maybe when all the holders are getting a little bit too euphoric. So here, there's moments where 90% of wallets are in profit. Typically that's at all-time highs of the token where it's punching new highs. And in those moments is where you want to start paying attention and when you might want to be selling or taking some profit.

10:49你也可以用UPNL來計算UPNL與市值的比例。舉例來說，假設你有一個市值一億的代幣，但所有持有該代幣的人未實現的獲利總和是五千萬。這代表UPNL佔了市值本身的50%。這有點可怕。我認為大約50%，我看過很多代幣，當UPNL與市值的比例在40%到50%時，幾乎所有這些低市值代幣都會見頂。那麼，這裡的出口在哪裡？出口就是底下的流動性池。你經常會看到UPNL和市值與流動性的比例。What you can also do with UPNL is you can figure out the ratio of UPNL against market cap. So let's say you have 100 million market cap token, but the unrealized profit of everyone holding that token is 50 million. That means 50% of the UPNL is the market cap itself. Kind of scary. I think around 50% is, I've looked at a lot of tokens, 40 to 50% UPNL to market cap ratio is when almost all of these low-cap tokens top. Now, what's the exit door here? The exit door is the liquidity pool underneath. You'll often see UPNL and the market cap as a ratio of the liquidity.

11:25所以如果有一個價值一億美元的代幣，但只有一百萬美元的流動性，那麼大約每一百個交易者裡，可能只有一個人會再看到那個價格並且實現一百萬美元的收益，對吧？其實沒有人真的能看到那個價格。So if there's a $100 million token and there's only $1 million of liquidity, one in 100 traders, you know, are probably going to ever see that price again and realize a million dollars, right? No one actually sees that price.

11:38通常當幣價大漲時，UPNL/流動性比會到 5-10 倍，這時候沒有人能真的賣到頂，只有一路賣上去才有機會獲利。我們的用戶都不會等到最高點才賣，而是用 VWAP 和 UPNL 指標分批獲利。So. Typically, when the token runs a lot, you'll see maybe a 10x ratio or a 5x ratio of UPNL to liquidity. No one's ever going to see that profit unless they're selling on the way up. So this is a strategy that a lot of our traders use to realize their profits. They almost never sell the top. They always sell on the way up using these VWAP metrics and the UPNL metrics.

11:58UPNL 實戰案例與總結

11:58我們來看幾個大家熟悉的幣的 UPNL 數據。像 Orbio，現在 UPNL 大約兩千萬美金，市值一億，代表 20% 是未實現獲利。UPNL/流動性比大約 4 倍，錢包獲利率約 60%。你可以用這些數據判斷現在是不是進場好時機，還是已經過熱。So again, let's look at some of these UPNLs on tokens that we know of. You can see that Orbio today, about $20 million of UPNL, but the market cap is only $100 million. So 20% of that UPNL is unrealized profit. And you can also see the UPNL versus liquidity, about 4x market cap, or sorry, the wallets and profit around 60%. So you can make that educated guess using these metrics on, is now a good time to enter Orbio? Is it overbought or is the VWAP at?

12:33看看這裡的 Stonk，Solana 代幣，是一個很棒的協議，適合用來交易與股票配對的迷因幣。你可以看到，UPNL 與市值的比率曾一度達到 47%。非常非常接近高點。如果你在那個時候賣出，可能會在價格走勢的高點內 10% 的位置賣出。所以我們很多交易者都在第二波上漲之前就很早出場了。就像我之前給你們展示的，有時候第二波上漲會讓人感到很困惑，也很容易被操縱。Looking at Stonk here, Solana token, great protocol for trading meme coins paired with stocks. You can see that the UPNL to market cap ratio at one point hit 47%. Very, very close to the top. If you had sold that, you would have sold maybe 10% within the top of the price action. So a lot of our traders got out well early before that second spike. And as I showed you earlier, that second spike sometimes can be very mystifying and manipulated.

13:02這就是一個幣的典型生命週期：一開始 90% 持幣者都在賺錢，接著 UPNL 佔市值一半，然後 UPNL 是流動性的 10 倍，這時候就該出場了。最後價格回測 VWAP，在高位盤整。總結來說，VWAP 和 UPNL 這些指標都能在 Definitive Finance 上用，幫你判斷部位大小、什麼時候該出場、怎麼把獲利留住。祝大家戰壕交易順利！So this is typically the price action and the life cycle of a token. You'll see that all of a sudden 90% of token holders are in profit. Then suddenly half the market cap is UPNL. Then the UPNL in aggregate is now 10x the liquidity. It's about time to get out at this point. And then finally you'll see that the price starts retesting that VWAP and starts churning at the top. So in summary, you know, VWAP and UPNL all available on Definitive Finance, and then price action. Helps you understand, you know, how large should you be and how do you get out of that position and keep your profits. So thank you so much, and good luck in the trenches.