加密貨幣認同危機大哉問：我們到底在押什麼？（Spartan Group、Inversion、Framework Ventures 對談）

0:00加密貨幣的認同危機開場

0:00大家好，歡迎來到這場討論。我們今天要聊的是加密貨幣的認同危機。現場有沒有人覺得現在加密貨幣真的有認同危機？請舉手。大概只有兩成的人舉手，這會很有趣。今天和我一起的有 Kelvin、Santiago 和 Rajiv。我們會討論加密貨幣是否真的面臨認同危機，以及和過去幾輪市場相比，現在有什麼不同。Welcome everyone. We're going to be talking about crypto's identity crisis. So can we maybe quickly warm up here, and if you can put your hand up if you think that crypto has an identity crisis right now. Okay, maybe like 20% of the room, so it's going to be interesting. I'm joined by Kelvin, Santiago, and Rajeev, and we're going to be talking about if we do have an identity crisis in crypto, how things have changed since the previous markets.

0:40我想先來問大家一個簡單的問題。現在的情況和以前相比有什麼不同？比如說，現在和四、五年前相比，有什麼最具代表性的改變？So I want to maybe kick off just a quick question for everyone. How are things different now compared to what they were before? Like, what's, like, one of the most defining things that are different now than four or five years ago?

0:54AI崛起與市場分化

0:54我認為對我來說，大約四、五年前，加密貨幣非常受到關注。是啊，那時我們都在討論加密貨幣、關注加密貨幣，然後顯然 AI 出現了，我認為它搶走了不少大家的注意力——某種程度上，也帶走了一些資本。我覺得這大概是過去幾年最大的變化。Well, I think for me, four or five years ago, I think crypto was very much in the spotlight. Yeah, we were just talking about crypto, looking at crypto, and then obviously AI came along, and that's, I think, stolen quite a bit of the mindshare and—to some extent, some of the capital as well. I think that's probably the biggest shift in the last few years.

1:15我認為現在的差距更大了。2017年，你只要寫一份白皮書，找一個有公信力的人背書，就能募到大筆資金。現在，我認為有些協議真的在產生手續費收入，但同時有90%的加密貨幣專案並沒有產生任何手續費。我覺得這種分歧讓單靠敘事變得很難賣，市場對於只有敘事、沒有基本面的專案已經失去耐心了。Well, I think you have a greater disparity. 2017, you could write a white paper, put a credible figure behind it, and raise huge sums of money. Now, I think you have protocols that are cranking out fees, and then you have 90% of crypto that doesn't produce fees, and I think—that divide, it's hard to sell a narrative, and that's really the market has lost its patience for just narratives without fundamentals.

1:41市場分散是大家常提的主題。現在投資人更聰明，知道什麼有效、什麼沒用，甚至會判斷什麼有潛力。這種趨勢不只在現貨代幣投資，也反映在創投領域。Yeah, I think dispersion has been like a common theme people have been talking about. People have gotten a lot more, a lot smarter about, like, what is working, what isn't working, what potentially could work, and I think this—Leads through both on liquid token investing and venture investing.

1:58資安、企業應用與保險的機會

1:58在進入更深入的討論之前，我還有一個簡短的問題想請教在座各位。請問現在在加密貨幣領域裡，有哪一個你認為被低估、但你比一般人更看好的領域？我認為我們一直很關注的一個領域，就是整個資安領域。因為如果你回顧過去四到五個月，我們看到非常多駭客攻擊或資安事件，而且很明顯地，隨著 AI 每天都變得越來越強大，這只會讓整個產業的風險更加劇。One more quick question for everyone on the panel, and then we're going to go into deeper discussions. But what is one thing in crypto right now that you think is, like, underinvested and it's something that you're bullish on more than the average person? I think one area that we've been quite focused on is the whole cybersecurity area, just because, you know, if you look at the last four to five months. You know, we've had an extraordinary amount of hacks or hacking incidents, and obviously with AI getting more powerful by the day, that just intensifies the risk for the whole industry.

2:30我認為，為了讓這個產業能夠持續成長，讓機構資本能夠大規模投入，我們需要將這些智慧合約的安全性，以及鏈下流程的安全性，提升到一個更高的層級。And I think in order for the industry to continue growing, for institutional capital to be deployed in size, you know, we need the—You know, get the security of these smart contracts, as well as, you know, the off-chain processes to a level that's much, much higher.

2:45我想作弊一下，講兩個領域。第一個是把加密貨幣帶進企業端，像 Main Street 商家用穩定幣支付，需要有像 Palantir 那樣的組織來推動。第二個是保險，尤其是智慧合約風險。現在鏈上收益低，保險產品很難賣，而且風險高度相關。AI 模型越來越強，駭客能力也提升，Lindy 理論不再適用。I'm going to cheat, so I'll give two quick. One, like a forward-deployed organization to take this into the enterprise, like Main Street businesses using stablecoins. Like, you need an organization to deploy, like a Palantir style for crypto. Yeah. And I guess the other one is insurance, which is tied to what you do, like especially. It's difficult because yields are low on-chain, so you can't really sell an insurance product, and there's a lot of correlation. But smart contract risk, I think, is greater now, and Lindy is not a thing when you have very performant models that can hack these systems.

3:17我補充一個相關但不同的方向，就是 AI agent 群體未來可能會用持久檔案儲存或資料可用性系統來協作。尤其當這些 agent 在內部組織被關閉時，這種協作會變得很可怕，但也是很有可能發生的未來。Sort of in a, like, similar but different vein, I think the ability for AI agent swarms to use durable file storage or data availability systems to coordinate, especially sort of as they get shut down sort of within internal orgs, is both like a very scary thing, but a very plausible future.

3:41AI 對投資與人才流動的影響

3:41我們在座談會開始前有稍微聊到 AI，而你們的公司是設在舊金山。AI 現在對你們的工作產生了什麼影響？像是，它對你們的工作方式有什麼改變嗎？你們現在也開始在 AI 這個領域投入更多資源了嗎？ 是的，我覺得 AI 因為很多不同的原因真的非常有趣。它稍微改變了我們內部的工作方式。它也正在改變公司創建的方式。以往，公司在非常早期的階段就需要聘請很多人來完成各種職能。We talked about AI a little bit right before the panel started, and you're based in SF. How has AI shaped what you guys do now? Like, how has it impacted the work that you do, and are you starting to invest a little bit more into the AI sector as well? Yeah, I mean, AI is really interesting for a bunch of different reasons. It's changed a little bit of, like, how we work internally. It's changing the way that companies are built. Historically, companies have needed to hire a lot of people at very early stages to complete a lot of functions.

4:12現在，藉由這些模型和代理所帶來的槓桿效益，你可能不再需要花那麼多預算在人力上，反而能讓公司營運更聚焦。我們仍然持續投資加密貨幣。身處舊金山，我們能接觸到並看到許多在 AI 和機器人領域非常令人興奮的機會，而我們也正慢慢地開始涉足這些領域。Now, sort of the leverage that you're getting from a lot of these models and agents, you might not necessarily need to spend as much sort of on headcount and can kind of focus companies a little bit better. We are still investing in crypto. Being in San Francisco, we get access and see a lot of very exciting opportunities in AI and robotics, and we've been slowly sort of dipping our toes in the water there.

4:35人才基本上現在越來越多流向 AI。你知道，五年前，如果有一個非常有才華的 23 歲創辦人，幾乎是一個很明顯的選擇，就是去做加密貨幣，然後打造一個能夠相對快速成功的東西。現在看起來這個情況有點改變了，現在很多有才華的年輕人開始往資金流向的地方靠攏，而這次就是 AI。你們也有看到這樣的現象嗎？Talent basically coming more to AI. You know, back five years ago, you had a really talented 23-year-old founder. It was almost an obvious choice. Let's go to crypto and build something that can be successful relatively quickly. It seems like that is changing a bit, that now a lot of the talented younger guys are gravitating towards where the money is going, which in this case is AI. Have you guys seen that as well?

5:01是的，我認為從我們的角度來看，早期階段的案子確實變少了。現在，我們還不能完全確定這是不是因為你剛剛提到的人才流失或腦力外流，這很可能也跟最近之前募資環境非常非常艱困有關。所以資本變少了，因此新創公司誕生的數量也變少了。這在這個循環的這個階段總是會發生。但沒錯，我們確實看到案源大幅減少，我會說大概減少了50%到60%左右。在我們這邊，資金的投入速度也變慢了。所以我們現在變得更謹慎挑選，同時看到的機會也變少了。這就是目前早期階段市場的狀況，整體來說進展相當緩慢。Yeah, I think from our standpoint, we definitely have seen fewer deals in the early-stage side of things. Now, we're not entirely sure whether that's because of the—Brain drain or talent drain, as you mentioned, it's probably a function also of the fact that the fundraising environment up until recently has been very, very tough. So there's less capital, and therefore fewer, you know, startups being born. Always happens at this point in the cycle. But yeah, we definitely have seen deal flow. Dropped off quite significantly, I'd say probably by the magnitude of, you know, 50, 60%. On our side, we're also slower to deploy as well. So we're being more selective and at the same time seeing. Few opportunities. So that's where the early stage space looks like at the moment, and things are quite slow.

6:00是啊，所以我自己做了兩個加密貨幣——我是用我自己的資本投資。在我離開ParaFi之後，今年我做了兩個或也許三個加密貨幣投資案。跟2022、23、24、25年比起來，那時候我幾乎每週都會做一個案子。我那時候還想，這肯定是我自己的能力問題，因為你知道，我對加密貨幣變得更挑剔了，所以可能有人不想讓我進入股東名單。但我有去跟其他基金比較過，我覺得大家看到的情況都差不多。對我來說，最明顯的事情就是，我覺得最聰明的人現在完全被AI吸引住了。你知道，那些加密貨幣礦工，他們全都轉向AI了。這真的他媽的超難的，兄弟。Yeah, so I've done two crypto— so I invest just my own capital. After I left ParaFi, I've done two or maybe three crypto deals this year. Compared to 2022, 23, 24, 25, I was doing a deal a week. And I was like, surely it's a skill issue, because, you know, I'm more critical about crypto, so people may not want me on the cap table. But I've gone out and compared this to other funds, and I think they're all seeing the same thing. I just, for me, the most noticeable thing is I think the smartest guys are just totally captivated by AI. You know, the crypto miners, they all pivoted to AI. It's just really fucking hard, man.

6:41AI 就像是一股比加密貨幣浪潮大上三個數量級的浪潮。對於那些非常年輕、有才華的大學畢業生來說，從事 AI 工作的社會地位遠高於從事加密貨幣相關工作，而許多人在職涯早期所做的決定，往往不只是為了讓自己未來過得更好，同時也會考量到同儕的尊重與認同。AI is like a wave that is three orders of magnitude bigger than the crypto wave. For, like, the really young, talented college grad, working in AI is a much higher status thing than working in crypto, and a lot of the decision-making that People tend to make sort of early on in the career is both like what sets them up for a good life, but also like what will their peers respect.

7:08話雖如此，我們內部一直在追蹤的主要指標，其實是潛在優秀創辦人的流動情況。我認為這跟完成的交易數量可能不太一樣，而我們認為這個數字並沒有明顯減少。只是說，一開始這樣的人本來就不多。That being said, like the main metric that we've been tracking internally is like what is like the flow of potential outlier founders and like. I think that's different than potentially number of deals done, and that number we don't think has materially shrunk. It's just that there just weren't that many to begin with.

7:27Hyperliquid 與公開市場的變化

7:27從像是沒有投資人這個角度來看，Hyperliquid 是否有稍微改變了投資方案？很明顯地，然後人們可以在二級市場購買。看起來現在流動性市場和流動性基金比四、五年前更受歡迎。Hyperliquid 如何影響你們每天的工作？Santiago，也許你可以分享一下。Has hyperliquid changed the investment scheme a little bit from the perspective of, like, you know, no investors, obviously then people could buy on the secondary. It seems like liquid markets and liquid funds are now more popular than they were four or five years ago. How has Hyperliquid affected what you guys do on a daily basis? Santiago, maybe.

7:45是啊，我的意思是，這很有趣，你如果三年前在Token這裡遇到我，我也會說一樣的話，就是公開市場有更多的機會。因為你想想看，加密創投領域有超過一千億美元的資金投入，因為這比較容易做風險評估，對吧？你去跟基金會、LPs（有限合夥人）聊，他們都很喜歡創投這一塊，但在公開市場上，資本、尤其是成熟資本，其實少很多。我認為這不只是在加密領域是這樣，放眼其他領域也是如此。像Nvidia，你如果四年前投資Nvidia，現在大概已經有十四倍的報酬。這是非常驚人的回報，流動性很高，而且市場訊息也非常透明。Yeah, I mean, what's interesting, and you could have been here three years ago in Token, I would have said the same thing, which is there's way more opportunity in the public markets because, you know, if you think about it, there's like a hundred billion plus that was deployed in crypto venture because it's easier to underwrite, right? Yeah. You talk to foundations. LPs, they love the venture aspect, but there's way less capital, sophisticated capital in the public markets. And I think that's also true just generally outside of crypto. Like, Nvidia, you could have invested in Nvidia like four years ago and done like a 14x. Like, you know, that's a remarkable return. Tons of liquidity, super well telegraphed.

8:27所以我的重點是，我認為公開市場，無論是在加密貨幣還是股票市場，都能讓你獲得類似創投的報酬，因為最終的成果只會越來越大，而且可以說，他們承擔的風險遠低於早期投資。就像你剛剛提到的，早期投資的失敗率大概有80%、90%。So my point here is, I think the public markets, both in crypto and in the stock market, allow you to have venture-like returns because the outcomes are just getting larger and larger, and arguably they carry way less risk than early-stage investing, which to your point, you know, it's like 80, 90% failure rate.

8:44我認為這比較像是——我覺得這是一種結合，我會說與其說是缺乏投資人，不如說是 Hyperliquid 這個產品本身運作得很好，而且很有道理，背後不僅有故事，也有基本面支撐。我認為你可以看到，過去幾年，特別是去年，資本有點像是從一些原本運作不良的專案，轉移到那些已經在運作或是有明確、可信賴發展路徑的專案上。I think it's like— I think it's a combination of, like, I would say more than the lack of investors, it's more like Hyperliquid was a product that was working and, like, you know, made sense, and, like, there was both a story behind it, there were fundamentals behind it. And I think sort of you have seen over the last couple of years, and last year in particular, sort of like a movement of capital from maybe a bunch of things that weren't working into things that Either are working or have, like, a real credible path to working.

9:12所以我認為從這個角度來看，其實大家早就知道這件事了，就是說，你要嘛就是某種形式的貨幣，要嘛你就必須建立一個真正的事業，中間其實沒有什麼灰色地帶。So I think looking at it through that lens, like, I think people have known this for a while, but, you know, you're either some form of money or you need to build a real business, and there's nothing really in between.

9:24市場大環境與資金流動

9:24對，我認為這裡有兩個因素，對吧？第一個是我們經歷了10-10，對吧？我們經歷了10-10，而我認為那對加密貨幣來說真的是一個很糟糕的事件。它確實摧毀或重創了許多早期階段的專案，讓整個加密貨幣環境變得更加困難。這也影響了流動性基金的報酬。它絕對也影響了創投基金的報酬，基本上在10-10之後，一切都被打擊了。然後，如果這還不夠艱難，很明顯我們這幾年還經歷了一波股票牛市，而今年市場甚至變得更加瘋狂，對吧？Yeah, I think there are two sort of factors, right? One is we had 10-10, right? We had 10-10, and I think that was a really bad event for crypto. Definitely killed or decimated a lot of early stage projects and just made the whole crypto environment a lot more difficult. Affected the returns from liquid funds. It definitely affected returns from venture funds and just everything got killed basically, right after 10-10. And then. And if that was not tough enough, obviously we've had this equity bull market that's lasted, you know, for the last couple of years, and this year markets have gone even crazier, right?

10:05所以，我的意思是，根據我們的經驗，因為我們經營多個基金，我們觀察到的情況是，即使我們的表現超越了加密貨幣指數，客戶其實也不在意。因為對他們來說，把資本配置到加密貨幣有機會成本，因為他們在股票公開市場上要獲得報酬其實容易得多。但我認為，現在也有很多人說，股票市場和整體 AI 領域，其實正在形成一個很大的泡沫。所以我們就看看接下來幾個月事情會怎麼發展——也許在某個時刻，資金又會再度轉向。And so, I mean, what we've seen from, because we run multiple funds, and what we've seen is that, you know, even when we're beating the crypto indices, the clients don't care, right? Because There's opportunity cost for them to allocate capital to crypto because they can get returns so much easier in the equity public markets. But I think a lot of people have also been saying that the equity markets and AI in general, you know, there's a big bubble forming. So we'll see how things evolve over the coming sort of months and—You know, maybe there'll be a shift at some point again.

10:41你知道，當我們最近有債券市場干預的時候，顯然有大量資金迅速流入加密貨幣，大家都在討論所謂的貨幣貶值交易，而這確實讓部分注意力又回到了加密貨幣身上。但整體來說，我會說我們對加密貨幣的興趣回流，其實還處於非常早期的階段。You know, there was obviously a lot of money that quickly flowed into crypto when we had the bond market intervention recently, and people talked about a debasement trade, and that certainly has shifted attention back to crypto a little bit. But overall, I would say we're still sort of in the very early days of the interest coming back to crypto.

11:01LP 與資本配置的變化

11:01我想在座的各位都會跟 LP（有限合夥人）和資本配置者打交道。所以我很好奇，回到我們剛剛討論的身份危機這個話題，過去一年加密貨幣的表現可以說是落後於股票、收藏品、商品，甚至很多不同的資產類別。LP 們對此有什麼反應？他們還有興趣把資金配置到加密創投嗎？或者說，對加密貨幣整體的興趣，這幾年有什麼變化嗎？I think all of you guys on the panel deal with LPs and capital allocators. So I'm curious, going back to the identity crisis that we were talking about, crypto arguably has underperformed over the last year compared to stocks, collectibles, commodities, really a lot of different asset classes. How are LPs reacting to that? Like, is there still interest to be allocated to crypto venture? Or crypto in general, or has that changed over the last couple of years?

11:30我認為對於個人質押提供者（LPs）來說，興趣已經明顯減弱了。我覺得對於機構質押提供者來說，因為即將到來的監管，他們也看到其他金融機構正在投入資本。所以我認為家族辦公室和大型資產配置者現在都在關注加密貨幣。某個時間點，他們一定會進場部署。問題是，什麼時候才是這些資本進來的正確時機？所以在機構這一端，我還是相當樂觀的。I think for individual LPs, the interest has waned quite significantly. I think for institutional LPs, you know, because of the regulations that are coming, and they also see that other financial institutions are putting capital to work. So I think family offices and the large allocators are all looking into crypto. So at some point, they will deploy. The question is, what is the right time for that capital to come in? So on the institutional side, I'm still quite optimistic.

12:03像2021年對於創投來說是一個很糟糕的年份，不只是加密貨幣領域。所以，你還是——要克服這一點。我認為如果你是像SpaceX這樣的投資人，你所有的LP都會問：「為什麼我要付你2/20的管理費？」所以我覺得你已經看到機構資金開始轉向SPV、二級市場。他們比較傾向於只投資單一案子，而不一定是整個基金。所以這個趨勢不只是發生在加密貨幣領域，我覺得是整體現象。我自己已經脫離這個遊戲，因為我只管理自己的資金，但我確實有跟一些基金聊過。你會發現現在只有少數幾個基金還能募資，比如Paradigm募了一個——是多少？——100億美元的基金、50億美元的基金、100億美元的基金。A16Z也募了一個很大的基金。Like 2021 was a terrible vintage for venture, not just in crypto. So, like, you're still—Overcoming that, and I think if you're an investor in like SpaceX, all your LPs are like, why am I paying you 2.20? So I think you've seen a shift in institutional money just going through SPVs, secondary market. Just they'd like to invest in a single deal, not necessarily in a fund. So that trend is not just in crypto, I feel like. I'm removed from this game because I just manage my own, but I do think talking to funds. You're seeing only a handful of funds raise, like Paradigm raised, I think, a 10—what is it?—$10 billion fund, $5 billion fund, $10 billion fund. A16Z raised a big fund.

12:44其他人現在真的很辛苦，真的需要展現DPI，但其實沒什麼DPI可以拿出來，因為你們在2021年做了一些很糟糕的投資，或者應該說，是一些還沒有實現成果的投資。也許未來某個時候會有成果，但現在真的很困難。Everyone else really struggling, really needs to show DPI, and there's not much DPI to show for because you did some terrible investments in 2021, or I should say, investments that haven't panned out. Maybe at some point will, but it's difficult.

13:00嗯，我這邊大概會有——我有一個比較樂觀跟一個比較悲觀的看法。像是在悲觀這一邊，如果你是一個想要接觸加密貨幣的LP（有限合夥人），你現在大概只要去買IBIT就可以了。以前，或許你沒辦法持有加密貨幣，只能選擇投資一個基金，而這個基金可能會做流動性操作，也可能做創投。現在，你很可能已經有能力持有證券了，你也可以透過這種方式獲得一些加密貨幣的曝險。所以我覺得這是一個重點。第二點，確實有一個時期的人，他們沒有太多成績可以拿出來展示，我認為這會影響到大家募資的能力。Yeah, I'll have, like, maybe a—I have, like, both an optimistic and pessimistic take here. Like, on the pessimistic side, like, you know, if you are an LP that wants exposure to crypto, you can probably just buy, like, IBIT now. Like, in the past, like, maybe you couldn't have held crypto and chose to invest in a fund who may or may not do liquid stuff and/or venture. Now, you know, you likely have the ability to hold securities, and you can get some exposure that way. So I think that's one thing. Secondly, like, yes, there definitely is a vintage where people don't have much to show for, and I think that impacts the ability for people to raise.

13:36從比較樂觀的角度來看，有些基金其實交出了相當不錯的數字。你也可以把這些數字拿來跟一般 Web2 的綜合型基金做比較，你可能會對那些基金的表現感到有點驚訝。話雖如此，我認為還是有很多 LP 想要有一些加密貨幣的曝險，只是現在重點在於如何調整這個曝險的比例，以及這個曝險要怎麼分配——比如說，要把多少資金投入到主動型流動管理人、創投基金，還是說，乾脆就直接持有像 Bitcoin 這樣的資產。On the more optimistic side, like, some funds, I think, have put up, like, pretty reasonable numbers. You also can look at the numbers relative to potentially, like, what generalist Web2 funds kind of look like, and you would be somewhat surprised at, like, what those typically look like as well. And that being said, I think, like, a lot of LPs still want some crypto exposure. It's just a matter of, like, right-sizing what that exposure looks like, and then how much of that looks like putting money into, like, active liquid managers versus, like, venture versus, like—Potential, potential, like assets, they'll just hold like Bitcoin.

14:11交易所多元化與資產上鏈趨勢

14:11我們已經看到，像是最大的交易所，例如 Coinbase，甚至 Binance 和其他交易所，現在真的開始從加密貨幣領域延伸出去，像是上架很多股票、商品、Pre-IPO 代幣，甚至直接銷售 IPO。你認為這會是一個未來幾年會持續的趨勢嗎？也就是說，這些公司必須從加密貨幣領域擴展出去，才能更有相關性，並吸引更多不只是加密貨幣圈的使用者，還是說這只是因為熊市太慘烈，這些公司不得不做出調整？We've seen, like, the largest exchanges like Coinbase, even Binance and other exchanges now going really branching out of crypto, like listing a lot of stocks, commodities, pre-IPO tokens, selling IPOs directly. Is that a trend that you think is Going to sustain over the next few years where, you know, these companies have to branch out of crypto to be more relevant and attract more audiences outside of just crypto, or is that just because bear market was so brutal that these companies had to adjust?

14:46我同意。我是Backpack的投資人。我認為他們目前為止打造了最好的代幣化股票技術。在很多方面，這很有趣，因為在DeFi早期，我們都在說：「好，我們要努力打造華爾街。」但我覺得現在華爾街反而越來越像加密貨幣圈。我認為你會看到市場的營運時間，從不是全年無休，而是逐漸延長交易時段。現在代幣化股票的發展非常有前景，我認為。所以我的預測是，在接下來的五年、十年內，加密貨幣市場的總交易量，只有來自非加密原生資產的部分，才會真正成長。I think so. So I'm an investor in Backpack. I think it's by far has built the best tech for tokenized stocks. And in many ways, it's funny because in the early days of DeFi, we were saying, okay, let's, we're going to work towards building Wall Street. I think Wall Street's becoming more like crypto, and I think you're going to see that, like, markets moving from, what is it, not 24/7, 365, but just expanding the number of hours. What's happening with tokenized stocks is very promising, I think. So my prediction is, over the next call it five, ten years, as a percentage, like the aggregate volume in crypto will grow only if it comes from non-crypto native assets.

15:29所以我認為，如果你沒有看到像是交易量——也就是說，80%的交易量應該來自於代幣化股票或現實世界資產。如果這種情況沒有發生，我認為整體在鏈上交易的總量就不會有太大的成長。而且我覺得，這也是大家對 hyperliquid 感到興奮的原因，對吧？像是 hyperliquid 在 HIP-3 之後，你就可以看到商品類型，像是石油、白銀和銅這些都上線了。現在你甚至可以在一些大型 IPO 上看到價格發現。所以我認為，這對加密貨幣來說是非常有利的，最終你甚至可以把這一切稱作金融科技了，你知道嗎？So I think if you don't see, like, volume, the percentage of volume that, like 80% of it should come from tokenized stocks or real-world assets. If that doesn't happen, I think the pie, just the aggregate volume that gets transacted on chain is not going to grow much. And I think, you know, that's what people get excited with hyperliquid, right? Like hyperliquid, after HIP-3, you saw commodities like obviously oil and silver and copper. Now you have price discovery on some larger IPOs, so. I think that bodes really well for crypto, where eventually just call this fintech, you know?

16:07是的，我認為一般來說，我會把金融服務想像成像是雜貨店。如果你有一家雜貨店，裡面只有大約十樣商品，那這是一家很糟糕的雜貨店。如果你的雜貨店沒有生鮮蔬果區，那也是一家很糟糕的雜貨店。很多這些機構都希望能夠服務整個使用者生命週期，而這需要時間來解決監管相關的問題，也需要技術的成熟，讓他們能夠進行資產代幣化，同時他們也希望能夠吃下更多現有客戶的業務。我認為其中很大一部分也是由報酬率所驅動，對於代幣化股票的需求顯然也是這樣產生的。Yeah, I think in general, I think about financial services sort of like a grocery store. If you have a grocery store and you only have like 10 items in the grocery store, it's a pretty bad grocery store. If you have a grocery store without a produce section, it's a pretty bad grocery store. A lot of these entities aim to serve the full customer lifecycle, and it's just taken time both to get the regulatory stuff figured out, for the technology to be there, for them to be able to tokenize, and they would like to eat more of their existing customer businesses. I mean, I think a lot of it is also returns driven, right? A lot of the demand for tokenized equity obviously came from.

16:48在加密貨幣領域裡，那些單靠交易加密貨幣沒辦法賺錢的人，還是想要有這種資產曝險，對吧？黃金也是一樣，當然今年稍早還有石油和其他資產。有趣的是，你知道嗎，我跟其中一個代幣化平台聊過，他們做了很多貨幣市場產品。當我問他們：「你們實際上是在鎖定哪些對象？你們的目標客戶是誰？」他們鎖定的並不是傳統金融機構。他們鎖定的是這些大型加密貨幣基金會。他們只是想要以代幣化的形式獲得更高的報酬率，對吧？People in crypto who were not able to make money just trading crypto, wanting that exposure, right? And the same thing with gold, obviously earlier in the year, oil and other assets. Interestingly, you know, I spoke to one of the tokenization platforms, and they were doing a lot of these money market products, and When I asked them, who are you actually targeting? Who are your target customers? It wasn't the traditional financial institutions that they were targeting. They were targeting all these large crypto foundations. They just wanted a higher return in a tokenized format, right?

17:25所以我認為，很多事情也會取決於各種資產類別的報酬率走向，這將影響注意力、交易量以及資本會流向哪裡。So I think a lot of it is going to depend also on where returns for the various asset class go in terms of where the attention and volume and capital is going to be directed to.

17:34AI、加密與產業效率的現實

17:34Santiago，你曾經有一個論點，認為可以收購被低估的公司，然後讓它們變得更有效率，並讓它們的運作更多地上鏈。這個論點在過去幾年有改變嗎？還是你對這個想法依然非常看好？ 其實沒有，我們在今年稍早的時候做了策略轉向。我們花了一年多的時間，研究了許多不同的產業，思考要不要把 DePIN 應用進去，或是把穩定幣整合到某個企業裡，或者用某種加密貨幣技術來提升企業效率。 我們最後得出的結論是，這些技術確實可以整合進去，也確實是有用的技術，但它釋放的價值並沒有像 AI 那樣多。舉例來說就是這樣。Santiago, you had a thesis that you can buy underpriced companies and then make them more efficient and make them function a little bit more on-chain. Has that thesis changed over the last couple of years, or are you still very bullish on that idea? So no, we actually pivoted earlier this year. We spent—Over a year looking at many different sectors where we said, oh, let's apply DePIN or integrate stablecoins into a business or use some form of crypto technology to make that business more efficient. The conclusion that we came at is you can certainly integrate it. It's useful technology. It doesn't release as much value as something like AI. You know, for instance.

18:16所以我們就從那個方向轉變了，然後我們說，好吧，讓我們——我主要是在講專業服務業、主街型的企業。當然，這不是說像預測市場和交易所這類企業不賺錢，事實上它們非常有利可圖，對吧？但我們想要收購的那些企業，收益就是不夠高，無法讓我們合理化這筆投資。所以我們當然也會關注 AI，因為我們看到它有巨大的潛力，可以讓這些企業變得更有效率。但這並不是在貶低加密貨幣，因為我每次這麼說的時候，大家都會覺得，「喔，你是不是覺得加密貨幣沒什麼用？」事實正好相反，我認為加密貨幣其實非常有用。So we pivoted away from that, and we said, okay, let's—I'm talking mostly professional services businesses, Main Street businesses. That's not to say, of course, you know, businesses like prediction markets and exchanges are vastly profitable, right? But the businesses that we wanted to acquire, it just wasn't enough to justify making an investment. So we, of course, look at AI, and we see huge amounts of potential to make those businesses. Just more efficient. But that's not a dig on crypto, because most of the time when I say that, it's like, oh, you totally, like, think that crypto is not useful. On the contrary, I think it's quite useful.

18:53就是說，你知道，如果一間企業正在使用穩定幣，他們或許可以在利潤上省下一些成本，但這本身並不是購買那間企業的理由，如果你明白我的意思的話。It just, you know, if a business is using a stablecoin, they may save something on the margin, but it's not a reason to buy that business in its own right, if that makes sense.

19:04AI 快速進步對加密的影響

19:04總的來說，大家都同意 AI 的發展速度非常驚人。新的模型推出得越來越快。像 Opus 5.5 或最新的 ChatGPT 模型這些最新的模型，真的非常厲害，而且越來越強大。你們覺得這種極速的進步，最終會對加密貨幣本身的需求產生一些影響嗎？你們認為，隨著 AI 和 AI agent 變得越來越聰明，能夠自主運作，做很多事情都不需要太多人的介入，這會不會讓這些 agent 有需求去持有加密貨幣、用加密貨幣交易，或以某種方式與加密貨幣互動？你們覺得這方面會有什麼影響嗎？So overall, like AI, we all agree is moving incredibly fast. New models are dropping faster and faster. The newest models like Opus 5.5 or the new ChatGPT models, they're incredible, getting better and better and better. Do you think that eventually this super quick progress will have some impact on demand in crypto itself? Like, do you think that eventually Because of the growth of AI and AI agents getting smarter and being able to operate by themselves and do so many things without really human input, will that create some demand on those agents wanting to hold crypto or wanting to trade with crypto or wanting to interact with it somehow? Like, do you guys think there's any impact from that?

19:46我是說，對啊，我有點——這有點像我剛剛提到的黑暗觀點，但就是……你可以想像，一個惡意代理可能需要一種方式來為自己籌措資金，而加密貨幣其實是一個非常適合用來測試安全漏洞、甚至獲取資源的試驗場。你可以想像，一個代理群體會想要利用這種無需許可、分散式、抗審查的技術來大規模協作。話雖如此，我們也認為這裡有一些有趣的機會可以帶來幫助。比如說，協助資本支出建設的融資，像是運用現有的穩定幣池等等。這就比較樂觀一點。對，我認為 AI 絕對正在產生影響。I mean, yeah, I kind of—this is a bit of a black pill take that I said earlier, but like... You can imagine, like, a rogue agent, like, needs a way to fund itself, and, you know, crypto is, like, a very nice test bed to potentially find security exploits and potentially garner resources. You can imagine, like, an agent swarm wanting to use, like, this permissionless, distributed, censorship-resistant technology to coordinate at scale. That being said, like, we also think there are interesting opportunities to help. You know, with like financing CapEx buildout, like leveraging like the existing pool of stablecoins that already exist and stuff like that. That's a little bit more optimistic. Yeah, I think AI is definitely having an impact.

20:28你知道嗎，我確實看到很多事情都可以自動化，對吧？所以，從新創公司的角度來看，這樣會更容易、更快速地擴展，不管你是在打造一個加密應用程式還是其他東西，對吧？絕對可以更快擴展，可能也需要更少的資本。從我們這種基金投資的角度來說，我們也正在嘗試用我們自己的 AI 智能代理分析師，這些代理可以做很多目前由人類分析師執行的研究。雖然現在還沒有人類那麼好，但已經幾乎差不多了，對吧？You know, I see definitely a lot of things can be automated, right? And so, you know, from a startup standpoint, it'll be easier and faster to scale, right? Whether you're sort of—Building a crypto application or something else, right? Definitely faster to scale, maybe need less capital as well. I'll say from the standpoint of investing for funds like us, we're also experimenting with our own sort of AI agent analysts who can do a lot of research that our human analysts currently do. Not quite as good yet, but they're almost on par, right?

21:07然後我們現在也開始讓 AI 來提出點子，接下來我們也會開始撥一些資金給 AI 進行交易，觀察損益表的表現，並根據結果微調模型。所以我認為這會對整個產業產生影響。And then we're also starting to have AI, to have the AI able to pitch ideas, and eventually we will also start to allocate some capital for the AI to start trading and see how the P&L performs and fine-tune the model accordingly. So yeah, I think it will have an impact across the board.

21:28所以，答案是肯定也是否定。我想，因為很多時候你會聽到有人說代理人會想要使用穩定幣，但我並不買單這個說法。而且這還是要看使用情境。像是如果你在跟對手方交易，你會想要即時結算；但如果你是在買機票，你根本不在乎。所以我想，我會對於「代理人會偏好加密貨幣網路」這種敘事保持謹慎。我不認為情況一定是這樣。但我確實認為有趣的地方在於，基本上我投資的論點，不只是——我不會把加密貨幣和 AI 做區分。我只會想，誰會獲得最多好處，誰又會因此受到最大損害。So yes and no. I guess because a lot of times you hear agents are going to want to use stablecoins, and I just don't buy that. And it depends on the use case. Like if you're trading with a counterparty, you want instant settlement. If you're buying a flight, you don't care. So I guess, like, I'd just be cautious with the narrative that, like, agents are going to want to prefer crypto rails. I don't think that's the case. Necessarily. But I do think where this gets interesting is, you know, broadly my thesis for investing, not just—I don't make the distinction between crypto and AI. I'm just like, who stands to benefit the most, and who stands to benefit, like, to really get impaired?

22:09企業，特別是在金融或保險領域，一直以來都受益於人性的懶惰、資訊不透明以及流程摩擦，並且因此建立起非常可觀的商業模式。舉個例子，像是保險公司或航空公司。如果你錯過班機，或者航班延誤，事實上你在歐盟有權獲得600歐元的賠償，但實際上只有極少數的人會真的去申請理賠並且持續追蹤。這些公司會讓你取消訂閱或申請理賠變得很困難。可是，當你有一個不會睡覺、極度有耐心、目標長遠，而且能夠隨時使用電腦的代理人時，這種商業模式就會受到極大的挑戰。Businesses, particularly in finance or insurance, that have benefited on human laziness and obfuscation and friction. have made a really nice business for themselves. Put an example, an insurance company or an airline. If you miss your flight, a flight's delayed, they're sort of banking on the fact that, you know, you're entitled to $600 in the EU, but only a very small percentage of people actually go through and file the claim and follow up. Like they make it hard for you to cancel your subscription or file the claim. That—It gets really challenged when you have an agent that doesn't sleep and is just super persistent and long horizon, and basically has access to a computer.

22:52所以我認為這裡的重點，不論是加密貨幣還是人工智慧，就是當你想像一個世界，其中大部分的資金都是由代理人以某種形式在移動時，他們很可能會選擇一個更公平、更開放、更透明的系統，前提是這些系統實際上是安全的。因為我現在對加密貨幣最大的疑慮就是，北韓已經變得非常擅長駭入這些東西，而代理人、惡意代理人，或者說，這是一個誘餌池，當我想到智慧合約時，這讓我感到相當不安。And so I think the upshot here, both crypto and AI, is when you think about a world where a large part of the money is being moved by agents in some capacity. They likely will go to a system that is more fair, more open, more transparent, assuming that these systems are actually secure, because that's my biggest issue with crypto right now is North Korea has gotten really good at hacking this stuff, and agents, rogue agents, or can, you know, it's a honeypot, and that makes me quite nervous when I think about smart contracts.

23:26結語：投資心態與機會

23:26我們時間快到了，所以我有一個最後的問題要問在場的每一位，就是：如果你只能給觀眾一個建議，關於他們在做研究時應該專注在哪個領域，或者有哪些有趣但可能被忽略或尚未發展成熟的加密領域，甚至是加密領域以外的領域，你會給什麼建議？為什麼？我覺得這是一個——我有點卡住了。很明顯，加密貨幣現在……可能不太受歡迎，也許代幣價格上漲了。我遇過很多在加密領域待了一陣子的人，他們會說自己是加密投資人，然後好像自我設限，覺得自己不能投資其他東西，因為他們覺得自己沒有優勢。We're running out of time, so I have one closing question for everyone on the panel, which is: if you could give one advice to the audience in, like, what they should be focusing on when it comes to research or interesting area that's perhaps under-talked about or underdeveloped in crypto, or even outside of crypto, what would it be and why? I think it's a— I've stumbled. Obviously, crypto is... A little out of favor, maybe token prices are up. I've stumbled a lot of people that have been in crypto for a while and say, I'm a crypto investor, and they sort of like handicap themselves and they don't think they can invest in other stuff because they don't have an edge.

24:02對此，我會說，真的要讓自己跳脫那種思維模式。你首先是一位投資人。現在有趣的是，如果你一直在加密貨幣領域，我認為你在傳統市場其實更有能力茁壯，因為就像我剛才提到的，傳統市場更偏向動能驅動，非常快節奏，尤其是有了 AI 之後，更需要對技術有一定的理解，而這種對技術的欣賞，其實你在加密貨幣領域早就已經具備了。所以我會鼓勵大家，不要只侷限在加密貨幣或只侷限在 AI。不是這樣的，如果你有好奇心，你就能做得很好。並且要勇於跳脫自己的核心專長領域。To that, I would say, really get yourself out of that mindset. It's like you're an investor first and foremost. Now, the interesting thing is if you've been in crypto, I think you're arguably more Equipped to thrive in traditional markets, because again, to my earlier point, traditional markets are more momentum-driven, very fast-paced, and especially with AI, it requires an understanding of the tech that in crypto you've had to have that appreciation for. So I think I would just encourage people to get out of that mindset of just crypto or just AI. It's like, no, if you're curious, you can do well. And branch out of your core competency.

24:39我會說，與其點名任何特定的代幣或賽道，我會建議大家保持非常開放的心態，對吧？因為我認為大家顯然已經觀察到，很多這些看起來很明顯會成功的專案，或者說已經被認為是明顯贏家的專案，像是隱私領域的、永續合約去中心化交易所（perpdex）領域的，這些專案，如果不是被過度配置資金，就是已經變成市場的共識觀點了，對吧？而在加密貨幣的很多領域，其實有些區塊是大家要嘛已經遺忘，要嘛完全忽略了，對吧？舉例來說，像 NFT 領域，最近我們開始看到一些活動，這是在所有這些 NFT 資產價格修正了，不管是 95%、99% 之後發生的。所以我認為，在這些被遺忘的領域裡，會有一些價值浮現出來，而我們只需要保持靈活，然後去關注這些不同的領域。I would say, rather than name any specific token or vertical, I'd say be very open-minded, right? Because I think people have obviously observed that a lot of these projects that are obvious winners, or have been obvious winners, the ones in the privacy space, the ones in the perpdex space, for instance. have been, I guess, if not over-allocated to, but they've sort of become consensus views, right? And there are many parts of crypto where people have either forgotten those areas or ignored them completely, right? And one area, for instance, is in NFTs, right, where we have recently started to see some activity after, you know, all of these NFT asset prices have corrected, whatever, 95, 99%. So I think some value will emerge in some of these forgotten areas, and we just have to be nimble and, you know. Be looking into these different areas.

25:47我完全同意Santiago所說的一切。不要以任何方式限制自己。要保持開放的心態，要有彈性。我認為大家在討論潛在報酬時，常常會提到分散這個概念，而很明顯地，具有基本面或敘事基礎的專案表現通常會更好。我想說的是，有一點可能很多人都低估了，那就是管理團隊和/或專案核心貢獻者之間的分散。如果你花15分鐘看一下這些人的訪談，或是閱讀他們正在做的事情，觀察他們是否真的有在推動進展，這裡面其實有很多alpha（超額報酬）的機會。所以請深入研究。謝謝大家的聆聽。非常感謝所有的與談人。我們這場就到這裡，謝謝大家。I would echo everything Santiago said. Don't limit yourself in any way. Be open-minded. Be flexible. I think people have talked a lot about dispersion when it comes to, like, potential returns, and I think obviously projects with more of a fundamental or narrative basis have done a lot better. I would say that something I think a lot of people probably under-index on is the dispersion of, like, management teams and/or core contributors to projects. If you spend 15 minutes watching interviews with people or reading about the work that they're doing, seeing if they're actually, like, making progress, there's a lot of alpha there. So dig into it. Thanks, everyone, for listening. Thank you so much for the panelists. We're done here, so appreciate it.