幣圈復甦：你真的拿對幣了嗎？DefiLlama、Breakout、Definitive Finance、The Rollup 四方對談

0:00你真的拿對幣了嗎？自我介紹與開場

0:00大家好，你現在手上拿的是對的幣嗎？你現在是賺還是賠？今天我們就來聊聊這些話題。先請大家自我介紹一下吧，讓我們輕鬆一點。大家好，我是Kyle，目前在DefiLlama，之前在DeFiance Capital做過。All right, guys. Are you holding the right coins? What are you holding? Are you up? Are you down? We're gonna talk all about it. Introductions, please, guys. Let's have some fun. Hey, guys. I'm Kyle. I'm an influencer on Twitter. I'm currently at DeFi Llama. And before this, I used to work at a liquid fund known as DeFiance Capital. Awesome.

0:27我是Mayne，主要是日內交易員，也算是Twitter上的KOL，現在經營Breakout這家公司。I'm a main trader, main. I'm also a Twitter influencer, day trader, and I run a company called Breakout.

0:33我是Dennis，還不是Twitter網紅啦，但我是Definitive Finance的共同創辦人，我們做的是鏈上代幣的熱門交易終端。I'm Dennis. I'm not a Twitter influencer yet. Not yet. But I am co-founder of Definitive Finance, a popular trading terminal for on-chain tokens.

0:43資產選擇新時代：基本面真的重要了？

0:43很明顯，現在在這個產業裡，選對資產比以往都還要重要。以前牛市你只要跟著敘事買L1、L2、基礎設施幣，基本上都能賺。但這一輪完全不一樣，現在是特定幣種創新高，甚至比特幣都還沒到高點。資產選擇變得超級關鍵。Mayne，你怎麼看？I think it's very clear to the market, to everybody here, that asset selection in this industry has become far more important. You know, in previous kind of like cycles or bull markets, you could kind of just buy a lot of the narrative tokens or things like L1s, L2s, infra stuff, and do well. That's not happened. For the first time ever, we're seeing specific assets, which I'll let you name, go to all-time highs and do breakout trends without Bitcoin even close to an all-time high. So we're clearly in a new regime. Asset selection matters more than ever. Take it from there, main start, and let's get started here. Sure.

1:24其實我持有的幣很無聊，主要還是比特幣。不過這一輪最有趣的地方是，大家開始用新的方式來評價代幣，像是看營收，基本面終於開始有意義了。以前每一輪大家都說這次基本面會重要，結果還是狗狗幣一飛衝天。但這次Hyperliquid在熊市創新高，營運又好，這會成為新標竿。Lighter我也有在看，還有我也持有不少Zcash，雖然早知道應該更早買。坦白說，之前因為一些負面消息我被嚇跑了。除了這些，我還是很看好比特幣，甚至覺得ETH也不錯，雖然這麼說好像有點怪。So, I mean, I'm pretty boring with the coins that I hold. Like, I'm always—primarily denominated in Bitcoin itself. But I do think one of the most interesting things about this cycle, we were talking about this backstage, is we now have a new way to value these tokens. We can look at revenue. You know, fundamentals actually matter for once. Like any of us who have been around for multiple cycles, you always kind of wonder when that's going to happen. You're like, this is the time fundamentals matter. You were just saying, and then the dog with hat goes to four billion dollars. You're like, okay. I guess not this time, but I think the most obvious one is Hyperliquid. I think Hyperliquid going to an all-time high in a bear market, being a massively profitable business that's extremely well run, it's going to be the gold standard going forward for new tokens. Like, hey, you got to make money now for it to be interesting. Lighter is obviously another one I'm looking at, but—I'm primarily in Bitcoin. I have a pretty big bag of Zcash. I wish I bought it a lot earlier. I'll admit I got fudded out during the kind of, like, exploit stuff. But other than that, man, yeah, I'm, like, hype Bitcoin. I actually like ETH, as crazy as it sounds. Bro, I know. Is that disgusting?

2:31L1該怎麼估值？以太坊、NEAR與鏈的價值

2:31你不喜歡ETH嗎？其實這一輪的主軸是營收成長。傳統股票會漲要嘛是獲利成長，要嘛是本益比提升，這是傳統資產的估值方式。但我覺得把這套拿來套用在L1不太對，因為L1本身不是賺錢的生意。像Ethereum Foundation發薪水就是賣ETH，這其實跟幣價上漲是衝突的。所以你可以長期持有L1，像NEAR就是一個例子，但你要用完全不同的框架去看，不能只看營收。Wait, wait, wait. You don't like ETH? I mean, the whole point of the panel is to talk about fundamental coins. I know. Right, like... So what's wrong with ETH? Okay, so back to your original question. I think basically this cycle is underlined by revenue growth, right? Traditional stocks, there are two ways stocks go up. It's either earnings growth or multiple growth, and that's just how you value traditional assets that make money. I think it's pretty wrong to take that valuation framework and apply it on L1s because they just don't make money, right? They're not a business. You know, how does Ethereum Foundation pay for its salaries? They sell ETH, right? It's like directly opposed to the token going up. So I think it's okay to be long L1s, like, I mean, like NEAR is a good example, right? But you kind of have to just approach it with an entirely different framework than the whole revenue thing.

3:22所以你覺得L1不需要賺錢也可以有幾千億美金的市值？Ethereum不需要賺錢，也不需要像Hyperliquid那樣的商業模式。你們同意這個看法嗎？我覺得可以，因為只要有很多生意依賴這條鏈的安全性，大家就會想辦法維持鏈的高價，避免被攻擊。只要價格不崩，大家都能安心。但一旦價格崩了，鏈上的生意就會開始恐慌，覺得這裡不安全。So you're saying that you don't think L1s need to make money to be valued at a hundred trillion dollar, or sorry. Hundred billion dollar, two hundred billion dollar, three hundred billion dollar, four hundred billion dollar market cap. You know, Ethereum doesn't need to make money. It does not need to be a part of that framework of, like, a hyperliquid or of another asset. Do you guys agree with that take? I think yes. Yeah. Okay, why? I think, like, if you have a lot of businesses relying on the security of the chain already, then everyone will basically make sure that chain stays secure with a high price so it can't be exploited. So just through that nature, it should maintain some minimum level of price. But the moment that price, you know, craters, then suddenly all the businesses on that chain are like, Oh shit, we're not on a secure home base. Like, we can't live here.

4:08哪些幣被高估？Zcash、恐懼與量子風險

4:08那用這個角度來看，現在前50大裡面你覺得最被高估的是哪一個？我覺得Zcash現在有點被高估了。其實我把Zcash當成另一種比特幣的玩法，但這感覺太簡單了，好像大家都在喊Zcash，但其實沒人真的重倉。Zcash這個幣是純粹基於恐懼誕生的，因為量子電腦的風險，很多人以為Zcash是量子抗性的比特幣終極解，但其實比特幣也是軟體，哪天硬分叉一下也能抗量子。沒人把這話說出來啦。那你現在會空Zcash嗎？不會，這個階段我不會空任何東西，現在還太早了。With that lens, what is the most overvalued token right now in the top, like, 50? Or, like, you know, chain or token. What is overvalued and why? Oh man, this is a tough one. I want to say Zcash is overvalued right now. Oh my God. I'm gonna break out Zcash right now. Okay. So do you not— I look at Zcash as like the Bitcoin trade over again, almost. I don't know if you kind of see it that way. Yeah. It feels too easy, though. Like we're just gonna size in Zcash from $300 to $500 and see you at $20,000, dude. Everyone has been shilling me Zcash. I host a hot pot with all the liquid funds. Everyone is. Yeah, but nobody owns it, though. That's what I'm trying to tell you. No, but they don't own enough of it. Zcash is a token born out of pure fear, you know? Pure fear. Yeah. Okay, why? Because of this quantum risk and, you know, the people that don't look into it more technically think that—Zcash is the one-all solution for quantum-resistant Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is a piece of software too. One day it can have a hard fork and literally be quantum-resistant as well. Nobody says that fucking part out loud, you know? Yeah. So are you short Zcash? I'm not short. No way am I short right now at this part of the market. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, I don't think you want to be short anything right now. I think we're pretty early innings.

5:22這輪牛市是回聲泡沫？外部因素與資產表現

5:22今天早上我看價格又跌了，大家最怕的是這是不是回聲泡沫？以前也發生過，幣價短期暴漲一兩個月，然後又崩盤。你們覺得現在是回聲泡沫嗎？我自己從比特幣的週期來看還是偏多，通常四年週期的Q3、Q4都是不錯的時機。現在比特幣應該在底部區間，最可怕的反而是外部因素，像利率、油價、股市、AI行情都很瘋。我也不知道如果股市真的大崩，比特幣會怎樣。大家都在說債券要崩，但其實這幾年債券一直跌，其他資產還是漲。所以這些外部因素到底還有沒有影響？Funny you mentioned that. So today, like this morning, I checked prices are down, right? And I think the number one fear people have is whether this is an echo bubble, because we've seen it before in crypto where we have like one to three months of outperformance, yeah, and then like everything just goes crashing down. I'd love to know what you guys think. Like, are we in an echo bubble? I mean, I think just cyclically looking at Bitcoin where we are, I'm—Bullish. Second, like usually, okay, midterm year, Q3, Q4 is generally a good thing. I think from the four-year cycle perspective, we're in that kind of window where Bitcoin generally is going to bottom. I think the scariest thing, I guess, is everything outside of crypto. Yeah, rates, oil, macro, rates are going crazy, the stock market's crazy, the AI trade has been crazy. I don't know what Bitcoin looks like in a, like, broad-based bear market in equities, which people keep saying is coming. But, I mean, I don't know. Like, there's so many bond experts, you know, Armchair on Twitter right now. Yeah. Like, well, the 10 years at this, like, things are going to come crashing down. I'm like, the 10-year, like, the bond's been going like this for years, and everything has continued to go up. So, like, does that—Matter anymore, or we just—

6:33但我覺得這場討論的主題『你拿對幣了嗎』很重要，因為雖然外部環境這麼亂，還是有一籃子資產像NEAR、Zcash、Hyperliquid、Lighter等，從低點翻了好幾倍，甚至在升息、油價高漲的情況下表現很好。比特幣還在盤整，但這些幣已經領先。現在的問題是，怎麼在這種市場找到跟比特幣無關、能有強烈信仰的資產組合？But I think, this, the title of this panel, Are you holding the right coins? is important because while all that has happened, we've seen this kind of what now feels like a consensus basket of assets: NEAR, Zcash, Hyperliquid, Lighter, Pump, a couple of these others that have bottomed off the lows and have done multiples in the face of rate hikes, oil at 100. Bitcoin kind of still chopping around, kind of bullish. You know, it had like that monthly close that you said is kind of like the official mark in the sand. But I think it's particularly interesting with what you're saying to think about, okay, how do I position in this market to kind of have a strong conviction in a pair of assets or a set of assets that is almost irrelevant to Bitcoin? Because I think that's kind of where we're entering. But I don't know if that's ever going to be irrelevant, but—

7:29新時代的資產評價：回購、營收與應用型代幣

7:29這個話題我很有感，因為身為分析師，整個職涯都在研究估值。我認為現在要找的是有外部、非加密圈循環需求的資產，像Hyperliquid、Trade XYZ這類，大家一開始對equity perps很懷疑，結果現在成長超快，證明這個領域是真的。像Bloomberg Terminal都已經整合Hyperliquid的永續合約，大家週末還會查Cerebras的價格。回購（buybacks）這個meta比炒作還大，像Venice、Edge token、Cards、Lit、Aave等都在做回購。為什麼有些幣回購很有效，有些卻沒用？其實是訊號問題，大家想看到團隊跟代幣利益一致。像Uniswap雖然可以回購，但大家都知道利潤都流到股權那邊，所以代幣表現沒那麼好。你不用像Hyperliquid那樣90%回購，只要讓大家相信你不會跑路就行了。So, I mean, this is a topic that I find very interesting because, like, as an analyst, your entire, like, career is built on valuation. A hundred percent. And looking at this, so my framework is simply, you need to have exogenous demand that is not cyclical and not coming from crypto. And these are the assets that have done really well: Hyperliquid, Trade XYZ, right? Everyone was like, Oh, equity perps are just like... When Trade XYZ launched, people were so suspicious, and now, like, their growth is, like, incredible, you know? And it shows that equity perps are here to stay. You see, like, Bloomberg Terminal, they integrated Hyperliquid perps on their terminal. You see, like, people checking, like, Cerebras price over the weekend when Sam Altman came out to say— I'm sorry to interrupt. Hyperliquid is, like, very basic. Exochain, the man buybacks revenue meta, this is, like, bigger than hype. Give us some other ones. Venice. I think Venice is a good example. So, like, kind of basic. Give us some good ones. Edge token. Yeah, yeah. Wait, which one? Doing buybacks as well. But cards as well, doing buybacks. Okay. Just starting as well, and then Lit. Ave also does buybacks. Okay. Why does buybacks work so well for some of these tokens and not for others? Yeah, and like, yeah, like I know it's a casino coin, Rollbit, but like, that they're not buying back so much of the token doesn't seem to matter. It's signaling, right? It's people want to know that the token... The team is aligning the token in some manner, like Uniswap, right? Uniswap, they can do buybacks, but everyone knows that profit flows to the equity side of things, and so token just doesn't do as well as it could be. Whereas, like, you don't have to do, like, Hyperliquid 90% buybacks to do well. You just have to show the people that you're not going to rug, you know. PumpFund doesn't do as much buybacks as Hyperliquid, but, like, you know, they're still doing well.

9:30總結來說，我們已經進入一個全新的資產評價時代，大家開始重視回購、營收來源和分配方式。現在有成千上萬的幣，每個月還有數百萬個新幣在Pump上發行，但真正值得投資的資產其實很少。我自己的看法是，資產配置應該像啞鈴策略：一邊是價值儲存型資產（如比特幣、Zcash），另一邊是有營收的應用型代幣（如Hyperliquid、Lighter、Venus、Pump、ether.fi、Aave、Morpho等）。中間那些L1、L2、基礎設施、zk、Gaming等反而表現最差。你們覺得我這樣分有問題嗎？So, like, what we're getting at here is that we've entered a new era of evaluating what assets to own. We're talking about buybacks. We're talking about the revenue and where that comes from and how to think about it. And so what you really kind of get to, guys, is we have, you know, however many tens of thousands of assets in the crypto land, and there's, you know, millions launched every month on Pump. There's like a bucket of investable assets if you believe what you're saying. And so I want to impose my thesis and get, you know, thoughts and feedback and break it down. The barbell: store value assets, Bitcoin, Zcash. If maybe, maybe not. I don't really put Solana in that. I don't really put Avalanche in that, Sui, any of that stuff in that. And then you've got revenue-producing businesses: Hyperliquid, Lighter, Venus, Pump, EtherFi, Aave, Morpho, et cetera, et cetera. I mean, the list goes on, Near, et cetera. And so it's like very different assets, very different purposes. Outperforming everything else, everything in the middle, L1s, L2s, infra, Interop, zk, yada yada yada. Gaming just completely cooked. Wrong, right? What am I missing? Why am I stupid?

10:40週期與資產選擇：啞鈴策略與風險調整

10:40我覺得在不同週期，這個啞鈴策略會長得不一樣。現在很多基金和交易員都覺得，能長期持有的好幣太少了，這個籃子超小，因為我們才剛脫離底部，還很早期。大家都在搶這些有回購、有營收的確定標的。但等週期後段、宏觀環境變好、利率開始降，會有更多新幣冒出來，到時候大家又會開始亂買一通。所以資產選擇要隨週期調整。現在這個階段，大家的持倉都很像，因為早期就是要拿能撐到下一輪的幣，後面就會開始買垃圾幣、狗幣。Yeah, so I think at different parts of the cycle, that barbell will look different. So right now, there's actually a consensus theory around a lot of liquid funds and—Traders is that there's just too few tokens to invest in that you can actually hold for a long time. And that basket is so small right now. But that's because we're pretty much past the bottom of the cycle and we're so early, right? Everyone's going for these, like, sure shots with the buybacks, with the revenue metas, real businesses finally getting a bid, but—When you get later into the cycle and, you know, the macro starts looking really good and maybe we start rate hiking, stuff gets crazy. We're going to see maybe 10x more booths here of tokens we've never heard of. And then suddenly that barbell doesn't move as much anymore, and everybody is buying whatever is marketed to them and very greedy. So you have to shift your asset selection later in the cycle. But I think right now, everyone on stage, I think, has the same bags. Yeah, it was like everyone has the same bags. Yeah, and there's a reason, right? Like the IQ test is like early in the cycle, you hold these bags that will make it to the next part of the cycle. And later in the cycle, we're all going to be buying like dogs. We're going to be buying garbage. Yeah, yeah.

11:50但也有人會說，現在還是週期早期，現在是風險報酬最高的時候，應該要敢壓注。因為如果比特幣重估，其他資產也會跟著重估，現在是最該all in的時候。我的操作模式就是現在盡量風險開大，等週期後段再慢慢減碼。But there is the argument as well to be made, like, you know, as we are still early in the cycle, I think now it's as high RR as a spot possible to take those bets. Because we have so much upside coming from what we believe from that barbell. If Bitcoin is going to reprice higher, everything reprices higher with it. Right now is the best time to be kind of as risk-on as possible. I kind of operate of the model like I'm as risk-on as I can be right now, and as we get deeper in that cycle, I'm actually de-risking a lot of my, you know, kind of further down the tail bets.

12:32敘事賽局與錯過的百倍幣

12:32你說得沒錯，每次週期中後段都會有敘事賽局，突然有些幣短時間10倍、100倍，而你可能還在持有像Hyperliquid這種穩定營收的幣，結果錯過了下一個AI百倍幣。這次大家都在講Pearl token，到底這是什麼？該買嗎？該賣嗎？我其實完全沒碰，覺得自己像是沒通過IQ測驗，大家都問我有沒有買Pearl，我還要去SafeTrade橋資金，覺得很麻煩。雖然背後團隊很強，Galaxy Inference報告也有提到Pearl，但我還是沒興趣。So, okay, so we're talking about, and I think you're totally right with regards to this narrative game that happens in mid to late cycle where, like, you just get these runners that do 10, 100xs in a short period of time, and you're sitting in a revenue-generating business like Hyperliquid, and it's at 325, and you're like, holy shit, I'm rich. But then you just missed 100x on, like, the next AI thing. And I think that might be this Pearl token. People are all about this Pearl token. I keep hearing about it in Singapore. What the hell is Pearl? Why should anybody care? Should we buy it? Should we sell it? Should we ignore it? What is this thing? You can't ask me, man. I've ignored it this whole time. You know, I think I'm failing the IQ test. Like, everyone comes up to me, it's like—You own Pearl, and I'm like, no, I have to go bridge to SafeTrade. I have to buy on this sketchy exchange. Why would I do that? And then they're like, oh, but the guys behind it are so smart. You know, it was in a Galaxy Inference report where they talked about how Pearl, a bunch of crypto projects are doing AI-related stuff, and Pearl was there. And I was like, oh man, I'm like totally missed. I'm totally sidelined, man. I don't know, man. I think it's too big brain for me. I'm kind of on the same page as you. I don't get it.

13:44我剛剛還跟Ansem聊，他也在解釋Pearl，但我還是沒興趣。現在很多人想把AI TradFi公司成功的模式搬到加密貨幣，加點代幣經濟學炒作。Pearl這波行銷做得很成功，比上個週期那些AI幣好太多。以前AI幣只是個聊天機器人加個代幣，現在則是去中心化推論，但其實沒比較快、沒比較便宜、沒比較聰明，只是多了個代幣。Like, I was talking with Ansem just like an hour ago, and he's trying to explain it to me. I was like, yeah, I'm just, I'm not interested. Yeah. I think there's a playbook right now where people are looking at successful AI TradFi companies like OpenRouter and trying to apply it and spin up the formula on crypto, and then—You know, maybe add some tokenomics to it to get attention and do the marketing. I think Pearl's probably done a great job, given that we've been approached multiple times at this conference for it. It's better than the last cycle's AI tokens we had, where it was just like basically like a chat with a token attached to it. Decentralized inference, and it's like, it's not cheaper, it's not faster, and it's not more intelligent, but it's decentralized and there's a token.

14:18AI x Crypto：應用型代幣與新敘事

14:18現在只要是Crypto X AI就會紅，但其實有更好的AI幣，像去中心化推論市場這個敘事很大。像Orbio、EdSeed這些做P2P基礎設施市場的公司，未來都會上鏈。AI領域其實有很多賺錢方式，像Venice的私有模型，大家真的會付費買推論點數，而且Venice底層其實是用Near AI，大家還沒發現。Near其實是個被低估的潛力股，雖然已經漲了4倍，但我覺得還有空間。Main說得對，現在要把目標價拉高。Okay, so it's crypto X AI. That's all anyone needs to hear. But I think there are better crypto X AI tokens out there. Like, you can have decentralized inference, but you could have, like, inference marketplaces. Now that's a very big narrative that go off on Robinhood, you know? I don't know if we're allowed to shill, like, micro caps, but there are some really good, like, inference markets. Yeah, Orbio or something. I just invested in a company called EdSeed. They're building a peer-to-peer infrastructure marketplace as well. That's going to happen on-chain. Yeah, yeah. So, like, in the AI realm, there's, like, a lot of other ways to make money, but there is consumer demand. Like, people are actually paying for inference credits, just like how people are using Venice, their private models as well. And, you know, they're using Near AI underneath. People don't really realize that. Quite yet, but Venice is powered entirely by Near. I think Near is a sleeper. I mean, obviously, like, have a bag there, but it's also up like 4x, so I don't know if it's that much of a sleeper anymore. I just don't think it matters. I think Main's right. I think it's still just like, you gotta, like, raise your targets.

15:18週期終結？超級週期與長期持有

15:18過去幾輪週期大家都知道要早買早賣，但現在好像要進入一種超級週期，週期不再重要。這次熊市跌幅只有55%，像Hyperliquid、Zcash這些幣，大家已經不是只想抱一輪，而是像買Tesla一樣長期持有。Mert就是這樣操作，他相信這些幣會長期勝出，不在意短期波動。你為什麼會這樣看？So to that end, right, there's been this kind of cyclical nature to crypto markets for the past handful of, you know, cycles where you want to buy early, you want to sell high. Now it seems like we're getting to a point where maybe we're getting to, like, escape velocity, where the cycles don't matter. The bear market was truncated, 55% down from all-time high. You start to look at something like Hyperliquid, Zcash, all these coins, and just say, like, I'm not focused on just holding this for the cycle now. Like, I believe in Hyperliquid as a company. I'm buying this like I'm buying Tesla. Yeah, and I'm just like, because that's what Mert does, I think, very well. It's a super cycle, man. Yeah, it's like, he's like, I believe in these coins, and I'm just going to hold them for a very long time. I'm not really worried about the ebbs and flows. And so why is that, man? Why do you believe that that's happening?

16:15我自己很掙扎，因為我本來是交易員，習慣低買高賣，結果常常短線賺一點，長線卻錯過大行情。如果我早期比特幣都沒賣，現在早就在遊艇上了。其實有時候只要時間在市場裡，比一直想抓高低點還賺。希望這次真的能打破牛熊四年週期，讓好幣可以非同步大漲。I struggle with this because I came to crypto as a trader, where I'm like buy low, sell high. Like, I'm in this to make money, and I've hurt myself a lot because of that, because I'm so focused on extracting value in the moment. It's like, dude, if I would have just held on to the Bitcoin I had years ago, I would have, like, we'd be doing this on my yacht. You know what I mean? But it's like, oh, I was trying to time the market rather than just have that time in the market. So I think it's going to be very interesting to see. I would love to see us break out of this, you know, bull market, bear market, four-year cycle kind of repetitive trend, and we have these kind of asynchronous rallies in coins that are just good. Yeah, you know what I mean? Yeah.

17:19資產上鏈大潮：誰會是最大贏家？

17:19如果資產上鏈的趨勢真的實現，未來幾兆美元的資產會進入鏈上，誰會是最大贏家？我要怎麼配置我的投資組合？是ETH、Aave、Uniswap、Chainlink還是其他？現在最明顯的答案是Backpack，因為他們在Solana上做了第一個SpaceX的tokenized stock，表現很好，但目前還沒有像Uniswap那樣的去中心化交易所專門做tokenized stocks。鏈本身的經濟學其實沒那麼好，現在只有Backpack這個選項。What I was getting at, though, is that if the tokenization thesis is correct, and trillions of dollars of assets come on-chain in the coming years. Who are the biggest winners? How do I allocate my portfolio in this market today, knowing that there's going to be trillions of dollars of tokenized equities, T-bills, bonds, money market funds, and all this capital that's off-chain on-chain? Like, think about the second and third order effects. It goes into DeFi, goes into this, that happens, that happens. Who do I bet on? How do I allocate capital? How do I express the max bullishness on tokenization? Is it ETH? Is it Aave? Is it Uni? Is it Chains? Is it Oracles? Chainlink? How do I—what is my max bullish tokenization bet? I think that's the million-dollar question that hasn't been answered yet. So the default answer right now is Backpack. Backpack is the default. Tokenized stock play, but like there is no clear, like DEX or like a Uniswap equivalent for tokenized stocks today. You could launch the chain that's being issued on, but as we all know, chain economics when it comes to these kinds of stuff aren't the best. It's like, it's like launching Arbitrum just because Hyperliquid has a bridge to Arbitrum doesn't make sense, right? So currently the only thing that exists right now is Backpack just because they're offering. Tokenized stocks on Solana. They were the first one to do SpaceX. SpaceX did really well. Their token is also up like 6x since the bottom. Yeah. But it's kind of an open-ended question right now because, like, no one—there's no real clear winner yet.

18:51這個問題很棒，因為沒有歷史先例。你看網路泡沫到移動應用時代，最後贏家都是應用層和平台層。加密貨幣也是，基礎協議（像ETH）已經過了黃金時期，現在開始是應用層搶走大部分營收。像Pump這種應用型代幣因為能把營收拿來回購，價格表現就很好。所以我會押注使用者最多、能從使用者身上創造最多價值的應用型代幣。I agree. Yeah. That's why the question is a good one. There's no historical precedent for this exact pattern. So if you think about—The dot-com boom and when we had the internet and how it transitioned over to, like, mobile applications, social platforms. Like, what internet company did you invest in that's, like, doing really well right now? There's no, like, internet hardware or protocol company, but the companies that are doing really well right now are, like, the application layers, the platform layers, right? So if you look at how crypto is evolving, we had our infrastructure protocol renaissance with ETH and—Like all these network tokens. And now we're starting to see the applications starting to capture most of that revenue, like Pump doing so well in kind of their token price because they're now able to get that revenue and put it into the buybacks. So my bet would be that this time you should be investing in the applications that have the most users that are making the most value out of those users. So a lot of trading applications. I like it. I agree.

19:55鏈的價值與應用層崛起

19:55Fat protocol這個論點現在也慢慢轉向應用層，因為應用才有營收，鏈變成基礎設施。如果你不是Ethereum或Solana，既沒什麼營收，也沒什麼貨幣屬性。現在沒人會因為某個應用做得好就去買那條鏈，大家只在意誰有使用者、誰有黏著度、誰有穩定營收。像FOMO這種跨鏈應用才是贏家，你不會因為FOMO做得好就去買SOL，因為應用隨時可以換鏈。I agree that the fat protocol thesis is kind of moving towards the app side, because the apps are the ones that generate the revenue. The chains are kind of becoming like just more of like a foundational layer. And part of that barbell concept is like, look, if you're not Ethereum or Solana even, you put in, you're kind of like in this place where you don't make much money, but you also don't have much of like a moneyness property to your asset. And so you're kind of like, why would I buy you over Ethereum and why would I buy you over Pump? Chain doesn't matter anymore. No traders care about it. No investors care about it anymore. All they care about is who's using you. Do you have a user base? Do you have sticky revenue? Look at FOMO, right? FOMO is like the breakout app of this cycle, and like they're not situated on one chain. They allow you—Trade coins on Solana, BSC, Robinhood, Base, all of this, and it's like, and they're winning. And FOMO is the winner, right? You don't long Solana just because FOMO is doing well. No, yeah, like you don't long SOL because Pump's winning, because Pump could leave. Yeah. I don't know. It's just weird. Chains are, that's why chains are not.

20:49但Solana和Ethereum還是有機會成為多兆美元的區塊鏈。Solana上個週期因為迷因幣交易很熱，大家都要用SOL當籌碼，像ETH在ICO或DeFi Summer時期一樣。但現在大家用的籌碼已經是USD，應用層直接抽象掉底層貨幣，根本不在意用什麼鏈。No, but still though, Solana could be a multiple trillion-dollar blockchain, I think. And same with Ethereum. I think Solana had that breakout last cycle because they had the meme coin traders there, and was the application layer because all the meme coins were paired with Solana. So in order to even participate in the casino, chips were sold. It had that property of money, similar to Ethereum with the ICO era or in the DeFi summer era, very similar. But nowadays, your chips are not Solana anymore. Your chips are USD abstracted away. On the application layer, you never even think about what currency you're spending or what chain you have. Very interesting point.

21:28ETH與SOL的定位變化與價值思考

21:28ETH和Solana都失去了部分貨幣屬性。Ethereum還有最強的中立性和抗審查性，這是它的護城河。Solana上個週期靠迷因幣和流動性池起飛，但這一輪反而沒那麼有趣。現在Solana的目標價大家都很分歧，有人喊一千美金，但我覺得Pump已經吸走了Solana的beta，與其買SOL不如直接買Pump。如果你想參與這種去中心化賭場，現在最好的方式就是買Pump。Yeah, well, it's lost its—I mean, both ETH and Solana have—Ethereum, luckily, has been ossified much more into a, it has the credible neutrality of being the most censorship-resistant base layer in the world, right? And that was always something that they got kind of pushed back on. And Solana had that, had kind of like this, like moneyness of this casino trading and this, you know, LP pools everywhere for all these pairs. And so they're in a tough spot. I mean, they're both, I think, are in an interesting spot, but I think Solana is in probably a bit of a more difficult spot than Ethereum currently. I think Solana is a lot less interesting this cycle than it was last cycle, I think. People's targets on Solana, like, I don't know. Like, I talk to Ansem all the time. He's like, you know, thousand-dollar SOL. I'm like, Ansem says that? Yeah. I'm like, I don't think so. I don't think so. I think Pump has absorbed all that Solana beta that otherwise would have— You would rather own Pump than SOL, is what you're saying. Yes. Yeah, absolutely. And it captures almost all the value coming into Solana. Yeah, that's the best way. Like, I'm not a meme coin guy. Like, I—Too old for the game, but if I want to long that degeneracy that's going on, to me right now the best way to make that bet is pump fun.

22:39牛市初期的共識與風險

22:39現在大家都覺得牛市才剛開始，這種共識反而讓我有點怕。大家都賺80%，都不賣，像在同一場派對沒人想離開。即使比特幣再跌到四五萬，我還是覺得現在是價值區，跟過去每一輪週期的時間和價格走勢都很像，所以我還是偏多。雖然進場點不一定最漂亮，但我還是會繼續配置，尤其是年底前。Interesting. Just kind of coming to a slow wrap here. Like, should people be, like, not—not, you know, everyone's got their own portfolios, right? But when you're thinking about where we're at in the broader... Sense of the cycle. I think asset selection, you know, is important, and there's a lot of sectors and there's a lot of things that we talked about here. But, like, just zoom out here. Are we thinking that we have, like, it feels too consensus that we're just in the early innings of the bull cycle. That's what I'm getting at. Like, is that really just where we are? Feels too easy. It does, and that scares me a bit. Because everyone's along the same thing. Everyone's up like 80%. I think I saw your tweet. Yeah, everyone's taking profit, man. Everyone's long, everyone's up, and no one's selling. Yeah, we're all at the same party. Yeah, no one's gone home yet. I mean, I still think, like, even if we were to get, like, another lower low on Bitcoin, and it goes to 40 or 50,000, like, to me—It's like, but we're in value. Like, this is value area relative to every single cycle that's happened before this. It's the same pattern from a time and price perspective. So purely from that sense, I'm bullish. Like, even though, you know, maybe your entry is not going to be, you know, the best. Like, I think Bitcoin is like 25K right now, last cycle. Right, 15K was the bottom. We traded up 50%. It's kind of where we are right now. Yeah, you know, and I think when we had that dump and it went from 25 to 19, maybe that's what we're going to experience now. We hit 87. We're going to have some pullback of the 70s. I still think it's good value. I still am, like, allocating time, in my opinion, for the next few months going into the end of the year.

24:15主流資金還沒回來，下一波散戶何時進場？

24:15其實我們覺得現在很簡單，是因為我們每天都在看盤，真正上一輪的90%交易者還沒回來，很多人都跑去炒AI股了。現在還在關注加密的都是最後一批老兵，但未來散戶一定會回來，到時候市場會更瘋。很多人錯過了底部，還在等Q4的四年週期低點。I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. Like, I think people on stage feel like it's easy mode because we've been locked in, we check the charts every day. But in reality, like, probably 90% of who was trading crypto last cycle is not even here yet. Everyone got pulled away to trade the AI trade and equities, and then they're still trading that. It's still doing really well. So who's giving crypto attention right now? It's—Kind of the last Japanese soldiers here on stage, holding the best coins. But eventually, crypto will be attractive again, right? It will become more mainstream, and real retail as the next cohort will arrive, and things will get a bit more crazy. It's going to go into outperformance like trade. I think a lot of people missed. The bottom. I think a lot of people are waiting for, like, a Q4 four-year cycle low.

25:12比特幣週期、牛熊轉換與未來展望

25:12你們覺得比特幣週期報酬遞減，熊市也越來越溫和，這會不會讓牛市更猛烈？我覺得比特幣會超出大家預期。現在我已經把比特幣當作資產停泊區，其他幣賺到的都會換回比特幣。雖然現在有像Zcash這種表現更好的，但最後大家還是會回到比特幣，因為它是抗通膨的終極資產。以前還沒有穩定幣，大家只能換回比特幣。I'd be curious to get you guys' thoughts, if we have time. Like, do you think, you know, we have these diminishing returns in Bitcoin, obviously, cycle over cycle. The bear markets have also been more mild. Yeah, this by far, assuming the bottom is in, is the most mild bear market we've had, 50-odd percent off the high. Does that translate to a more aggressive bull, in your opinion, or no? No, I think Bitcoin is going to probably exceed all of our expectations just because— I agree. For me personally, I've transitioned Bitcoin as, like, my speculative asset to the asset that I just rotate my bags back into to park. I think you're going to start seeing some of that because there are outperformers of Bitcoin now like Zcash, where people do want to chase that narrative. But at the end of the day, like, Bitcoin is the debasement currency that everyone wants to rest in. It's not going to be U.S. That's how you used to do it. You didn't even have Bitcoin back in the day. There was no stablecoins. Yeah, yeah.

26:05上一輪牛市其實很平淡，沒什麼高潮，BTC和ETH都沒創太多新高，最後也是在一種無感中見底。這次我覺得已經見底，接下來應該會有一波瘋狂的噴發和修正。只要聯準會有意外舉動，或Donald Trump最後兩年大撒幣，比特幣就會變成危機避險資產。如果宏觀環境平穩，則會慢慢上漲。大家有沒有什麼問題？沒人想在台上推自己的幣嗎？那就給我們的講者掌聲，謝謝大家！So to just give a take, so we had a top on apathy. We had an early top on apathy last cycle. Last cycle was hardly even a cycle. I mean, it was just, it was pretty rough. Bitcoin hardly made all-time highs, ETH hardly made all-time highs. I mean, Bitcoin did better, but—and so we kind of bottomed in a similar apathetic way. We got that crazy crash in February. That was actually like the most vicious move that we had to handle. We had a couple, like, attempts at it, but it was almost like this apathetic bottom as well. You know, it was kind of like, ah, it's not bottom. We're gonna wait. And then I think we're firmly bottom now. And so I would just expect the inverse to the upside next time into the downside. So I'd expect parabolic blow-off and parabolic kind of, you know, rebuild. That would be my take. I think you get the parabola if the Fed ends up doing something quite surprising or unexpected. Given Trump in the last two years of his presidency going out with a bang, trying to make everyone rich, right? Because, yeah, I could see it happening on-brand. Bitcoin sort of captures like a crisis chaos trade in that regard. Yeah, because people are like, well, I guess the USD is just going to be mega debased all of a sudden. You kind of have to rush for the exit there on Bitcoin, or entry, I guess, in that regard. But if, you know, the Fed kind of keeps it in line and quite predictable. We get probably a smoother macro, maybe a soft landing, and then you'll see it melt up. And that's my bet. Guys, any audience questions? Any questions on coins or market? No? No one wants to shill their bags on stage. It's crazy. Maybe we are. Trader Mayne, I want to know the coin. Show your bags. Yeah, I want to know the coin that the poop guy wants. What's the ticker of the guy with the poop face? Yeah, buy that coin. All right, guys, give it up for your panelists. Thank you so much, guys.