捷克央行總裁Aleš Michl：央行外匯存底納入比特幣的實驗

0:00央行與比特幣的奇妙組合

0:00大家早安。今天我要談一個很特別的組合：央行和比特幣。大多數人不會把這兩個東西放在一起，但我會。在貨幣政策上，央行必須保守，但也要有前瞻性。Good morning. Today, I want to talk about a strange combination: a central bank and Bitcoin. Most people do not put these two things together. I do. In a monetary policy, a central bank must be conservative, but it must think ahead.

0:36捷克抗通膨經驗談

0:36我在2022年中接任捷克國家銀行總裁時，我國的通膨率接近20%。20%，這是很嚴重的時刻。我上任時就說，我們會在兩年內把通膨壓回2%。我們真的做到了，謝謝大家。不是靠魔法，而是靠紀律。When I became governor of the Czech National Bank in mid-2022, inflation in my country was close to 20%. 20%. It was a serious moment. When I took office, I said we would bring inflation back to 2% within two years. And we did it. Thank you. Not with magic, with discipline.

1:14我很早就說過，即使在COVID之前，資金已經太便宜太久了，整個體系都在鼓勵借貸。我們的貨幣，捷克克朗，也被長期壓低。我們改變了這一切。我們讓政策維持緊縮更久，鼓勵儲蓄，捷克克朗也變強了。對我來說，這就是保守的貨幣政策。我們的原則很簡單：永遠保持鷹派。I said this clearly, even before COVID, money was too cheap for too long. For too long, the system promoted borrowing. For too long, the currency, our currency, Czech koruna, was weakened. We changed that. We kept policy tighter for longer. We supported saving, and our currency, Czech koruna, became strong. That, for me, is conservative monetary policy. Our rule is simple: stay hawkish forever.

2:02外匯存底與資產配置

2:02我們也管理非常龐大的外匯存底，非常龐大。我們大約有1800億美元的存底，這大約是捷克GDP的44%。以經濟規模來看，我們的外匯存底是全球最大的之一。所以我們必須為未來打造正確的投資組合。這裡你可以看到長期的風險和報酬，全部以捷克克朗計價，因為我們的帳本是這樣記的。We also manage very large foreign exchange reserves. Very large. We manage about 180 billion U.S. dollars in reserves. That is about 44 percent of our Czech GDP, relative to the size of our economy, our reserves are among the largest in the world. So we have to build the right portfolio for the future. Here you can see long-term risk and return. All in Czech koruna, where our books are kept.

2:56債券屬於低風險低報酬的一端，股票和黃金則有較高報酬，但風險也高。接下來談談捷克國家銀行的投資組合。過去四年，我們把股票的比重從15%提高到26%，黃金從幾乎零提高到6%。我們打造了一個多元化的組合，預期報酬比以前高，風險比全股票組合低，甚至比全債券組合還低。Bonds are on the low end, which means low risk and low return. Stocks and gold can offer higher return, but they also bring high risk. And the next point is the Czech National Bank's portfolio. Over the past four years, we increased the share of equities from 15 to 26 percent. We also increased the share of gold from almost zero to 6%. So we built a diversified portfolio, higher expected return than before, lower risk than an all-stock portfolio, and even lower risk than an all-bond portfolio.

3:58比特幣能否進一步分散風險？

3:58但接下來出現了下一個問題。我們能做得更多嗎？我們能為未來打造一個更強大的投資組合嗎？而現在，比特幣來了。我第一次使用比特幣，是在大約十年前於捷克共和國的首都布拉格買了一杯咖啡。今天，那杯咖啡大約價值350美元，所以那是我人生中最昂貴的一杯咖啡。你們都知道，比特幣有非常高的報酬率。但說實話，它看起來風險很高。它的波動性遠高於其他資產。有一天，它的價格可能會高得多，也可能歸零。沒錯，就是歸零。而這對其他資產來說也同樣成立。But then came the next question. Can we do more? Can we build an even stronger portfolio for the future? And now comes Bitcoin. The first time I used Bitcoin, I bought a coffee in Prague, which is capital city of the Czech Republic, about 10 years ago. Today, that coffee comes to about 350 US dollar, so it was the most expensive coffee of my life. You know that Bitcoin had very high returns. But honestly, it looks risky. Its volatility is much higher than of other assets. One day, its price may be much higher, or it could go to zero. Yes, zero. And that is true for other assets too.

5:17一檔股票有可能會歸零，甚至債券也有可能失敗。所以對我來說，這就是為什麼只押注在單一資產並不明智。我們必須考慮整個投資組合。A stock can go to zero, even a bond can fail. So for me, that is why it is not wise to bet just on one asset. We have to think about the whole portfolio.

5:39比特幣納入央行測試組合

5:39這張圖表上的下一個重點，就是我們在最新論文、我們的新工作論文中發現的內容。這是我們的模型投資組合，其中有1%配置在Bitcoin。接下來就是有趣的部分。當我們將1%配置在Bitcoin時，預期報酬率上升，而整體風險在我們的捷克貨幣中則大致維持不變。這就是我們新研究所顯示的結果。為什麼會這樣？因為Bitcoin與許多傳統資產的長期相關性很低。它的走勢並不相同，而這一點很重要。所以當你加入像這樣的資產時，整個投資組合的運作會更好。報酬率可以上升，而風險則大致維持不變。這就是分散投資。The next point on this chart is what we found in our new paper, in our new working paper. This is our model portfolio with 1% in Bitcoin. And here comes the interesting part. With 1% in Bitcoin, expected return goes up, and overall risk stays about the same in our Czech currency. This is what our new study shows. Why? Because Bitcoin has low long-term correlation with many traditional assets. It does not move in the same way, and that matters. So when you add an asset like this, the whole portfolio can work better. Return can go up and risk stay about the same. That is diversification.

6:56所以從長遠來看，Bitcoin 能夠提供與其他資產沒有高度連動的報酬。在某些方面，對我來說，它有點類似於創投，但它的流動性高得多。So over the long term, Bitcoin can provide returns that are not closely linked to other assets. In some ways, it is similar for me to venture capital, but it is much more liquid.

7:22所以在捷克國家銀行，我們開始了一個獨立的比特幣測試投資組合。這只是測試，不是革命，也不是政治宣示，就是測試。我們會運作兩年，然後公布結果，再決定下一步怎麼做。So, in the Czech National Bank, we started a separate test portfolio with Bitcoin. A test portfolio, not a revolution, not a political statement, a test. We will run it for two years, then we will publish the results, then we will decide what comes next.

7:52保守與創新並行的未來

7:52總結一下：貨幣政策要保守，但工作方式要創新。這就是未來。謝謝大家。So, to sum up, be conservative in monetary policy, but be innovative in how we work. This is the future. Thank you.

8:09比特幣社群的未來展望

8:09每年這個社群都會聚在一起慶祝、討論、打造未來。每年這個舞台都越來越大。Sound money，成為舞台中心。那麼，下一章比特幣歷史要在哪裡慶祝？2027年7月，回家，Nashville見。Every year, this community comes together to celebrate, to debate, to build what comes next. And every year, the stage gets bigger. Sound money. Center stage. So, where do you go to celebrate the next chapter in Bitcoin history? You come home. Nashville, July 2027.