Kaito 執行長 Yu Hu：社群媒體成為新全球交易場
Social Media: The New Global Trading Floor
- Yu Hu Kaito AI 執行長
影片
影片與逐字稿來源：TOKEN2049
場次摘要
Kaito 執行長 Yu Hu 分享社群媒體如何徹底改變全球資本市場的交易結構。從散戶參與度提升、社群平台成為投資論點與市場情緒的主戰場，到企業與機構如何因應這波變革，Yu Hu 以豐富數據與案例，剖析 mindshare 與社群訊號已成為現代市場的核心驅動力。
值得記下的 5 件事
- 一則 2028 年 AI 情境推文能在當天超過一千萬次曝光，傳播速度已不像舊的交易大廳。
- 美股散戶成交占比從約 10% 升到平均 30%，AI、半導體與消費品牌更高。
- Robinhood 與 Interactive Brokers 資金帳戶數在過去幾年成長五到十倍，論點也改在社群發表。
- 能帶動市場的社群帳號報價到 1 億美元，已高過部分小型投資銀行估值。
- 市場是集體信念；社群媒體把投票結果攤開，結構變得可觀察。
逐字稿
Kaito 與注意力經濟的市場情報
大家好，很高興來到這裡。我是 Yu Hu，Kaito 的創辦人兼執行長。對於還不熟悉 Kaito 的朋友，Kaito 是一個專注於注意力經濟的市場情報與金融平台。目前我們有兩個主要產品：第一個是創作者市集，這是一個品牌與創作者雙邊的注意力經濟市集；另一個則是針對資本市場的市場情報平台，涵蓋加密貨幣、股票、商品等各類金融資產。今天我要分享的主題是：社群媒體如何成為新的全球交易場。Hello everyone, it's good to be here. My name is Yu Hu. I'm the founder and CEO of Kaito. For those of you who are not familiar with Kaito, Kaito is a market intelligence and financial platform in the attention economy. Today we have two main products. The first product is a creator marketplace, which is a two-sided marketplace for brands and creators for the attention economy. The other one is a market intelligence platform for the capital markets. That includes crypto, stocks, commodities, and any sort of financial assets. Today I'll be covering the topic of how social media is becoming the new global trading floor.
從 Citadel 到新世代市場結構
簡單介紹一下我自己，在創辦 Kaito 之前，我曾在 Citadel 擔任全球股票交易員約五年。不過，當時我所交易的市場，和現在我們面對的市場結構已經有天壤之別。讓我舉個例子：2026 年 2 月，Sintrini 發布了一份 2028 年的 AI 情境報告，描述 AI 超越人類所有預期，但現實經濟卻徹底崩潰，失業率到 2028 年超過 10%，數百萬人失業。這則推文瞬間爆紅，當天有超過一千萬次曝光。To give you a bit of a context about myself, so before starting Kaito, I was a trader at Citadel for about five years, where I was trading global equities market. But the market I was trading back then is drastically different from the market that we're trading today. Let me start with one report. For those of you who remember, in February 2026, so earlier this year, Sintrini put out an AI scenario for 2028. In that, Sintrini was describing a scenario where AI has exceeded all of our humanity's expectations. Whereas at the same time, the real economy has absolutely collapsed. So unemployment rate has hit more than 10% by 2028. Millions of people are losing their jobs. The tweet went absolutely viral. It was one of the most widely circulated tweet on the day, hitting more than 10 million impressions.
這則推文的影響力非常驚人。當天，報告中被點名看空的股票下跌了 6%，整體市場也下跌，Nasdaq 當天跌超過 1%。你可能會好奇，為什麼一則社群媒體的報告或推文，能對市場產生這麼大的影響？答案就在於市場結構的改變。The result of that is on the day, the bearish names that were mentioned in the report were down 6%, and the entire market was down, with Nasdaq down more than 1%. You might be wondering, why is one social media report or social media tweet has such a drastic impact on the market? The answer is the market structure.
散戶崛起與全球化交易
現在的市場結構跟以前完全不同。以前我在股票市場交易時，散戶只佔市場成交量的一小部分，大約只有 10%。但現在這個數字大幅提升，平均來說已經到 30%，而且這只是平均值。散戶特別偏好某些股票，像是 AI、半導體和消費品牌，這些標的的散戶成交比重甚至遠高於 30%。That we have in today is drastically different from the market structure before. Back then, when I was trading in the equities market, retail is roughly just a fraction of the market. It was roughly 10% of the entire trading volume. Today, that number is drastically higher, 30%. And remember that this is just an average. Retail disproportionately actually likes to be investing in a subset of the names, especially AI, semiconductor, and some of the consumer brands. So you'd imagine that in one of those names, the retail share of the total global trading volume is going to be much higher than 30%.
零售交易量佔比比以往高出許多，這背後有幾個原因。第一個原因是全球化的存取。現在，美國人即使只是在IBKR上，也能輕鬆交易韓國股票。顯然，隨著鏈上股票永續合約的興起，現在任何擁有錢包的人基本上都可以在鏈上交易任何股票。沒有任何限制，甚至連中國的IPO也可以，這在一年前根本是無法想像的。第二個原因是交易時段變長了。Robinhood 已經允許使用者針對特定美股進行24小時、每週5天的交易，而鏈上交易則天生就是24小時、每週7天。第三個原因則是我們目前正在經歷的現象——想法的產生變得比以往容易許多。There are a couple of reasons why the retail share of the trading volume is much higher today versus before. One of the reasons is global access. Nowadays, it's much easier for Americans, even just on IBKR, to be trading Korean stocks. Obviously, with the rise of on-chain equities perps, nowadays anyone who's ever having access to a wallet can essentially trade any stocks on-chain. With no limitations, even for Chinese IPOs, and that was totally unimaginable even just a year ago. Second reason is longer trading hours. Robinhood has already allowed people to be trading 24/5 for selected U.S. stocks, and obviously with on-chain trading, it's naturally 24/7. The third one is something that we're currently living through. Idea generation has becoming much easier nowadays.
每個人都在使用AI來進行他們的研究想法、盡職調查，你基本上不再需要私人銀行家來告訴你應該買什麼。而且現在要形成你的交易想法也變得容易得多。Everyone is using AI for their research ideas, for their due diligence, and you don't necessarily need a private banker to essentially tell you what you should be buying. And it's now much easier to essentially form your trading ideas.
社群媒體與投資決策的變革
同時，因為社群媒體的關係，現在要消化資訊以及學習其他人是如何交易的也變得容易許多。透過這一切，數字本身就說明了一切，對吧？Robinhood 和 Interactive Brokers 在資金帳戶數量方面都出現了巨大的爆炸性成長，過去幾年成長了五到十倍。隨著越來越多人在股市進行交易，我們也看到一個趨勢，就是越來越多人積極參與公開討論，特別是在股票方面，也就是說，人們會在社群媒體上發表自己的投資論點。At the same time, because of social media, now it's also much easier to digest information and learn from how other people have been trading. Through all of these, numbers are speaking to itself, right? Robinhood and Interactive Brokers have seen huge explosive growth in terms of the funded accounts, five to ten x over the past few years. With more and more people trading in the stock market, we're also seeing a trend in terms of more and more people actively participating in the public discourse, in terms of stocks, i.e., people are posting their theses on social media.
在這裡我引用 Gaby Baker 的話，她說越來越多的機構參與者開始注意到，因為 Substack、Reddit，以及最重要的 X，現在正逐漸成為推動股票交易市場的重要力量。And here I'm quoting Gaby Baker, who is saying that increasingly institutional players are taking note because Substack, Reddit, and most importantly X is becoming much more of important market driving forces for stock trading today.
有趣的是，過去大家發表投資論點的平台其實是很分散的。當然，大家都知道GameStop事件，那時候主要是在Reddit上發生的。但現在，很多社群媒體，尤其是股票交易相關的討論，已經轉移到X這個平台上了。這裡我想引用Kevin Xu，他是在X上非常有影響力的交易者和內容創作者。他會即時記錄並公開自己的交易日誌，目前已經有超過20萬名追蹤者。同時，我上次查的時候，他的即時交易投資組合規模已經超過1,200萬美元。What's also interesting is back in the day, there's a, I would say, the market fragmentation in terms of where people are posting their thesis. And obviously, you know, everyone know about GameStock, that was happening on Reddit. But nowadays, a lot of the social media, especially for the stock trading part, is happening on X. And here I'm quoting Kevin Xu, who is a very big trader and creator on X. He's live documenting all of his trading journals, and he has more than 200,000 followings. At the same time, I think last time I checked, he has a portfolio of more than $12 million trading live.
他在其中一集播客裡提到，早期他主要是在Reddit上發文，而現在他則是在X上發文。這其中一個主要原因是，在X上你其實可以追蹤發文者的過往紀錄。背後有一個內建的社交圖譜，這對於交易來說非常重要，因為這不只是關於被發表的論點本身，也關乎是誰在發表這個論點，以及這個發文者過去的紀錄是什麼。And he was mentioning this in one of his podcasts that back in the day he was posting predominantly on Reddit and now he's posting on X. One of the major reasons is because on X, you can actually track the poster's track record. There's an inherent social graph behind it, and this is very important for trading because it's not just about the thesis that's being posted. It's also about who's posting this, what's the track record of the person posting about this.
全球股市討論與多元聲音
在 Kaito，我們會追蹤所有社群媒體上關於股票的討論。我們發現，因為 X（原 Twitter）本身就是全球的市政廳，現在最適合用來進行全球股票的討論。全球股票市場現在是一個非常整合的供應鏈，對吧？所以如果我們在討論半導體，這不僅僅是關於美國的 AI 需求。你還應該追蹤很多來自韓國、日本、台灣的資訊。所以，自然而然，來自世界各地的聲音都非常重要。在圖表上，你可以看到這是我們衡量所有討論股票帳號影響力的方式。Junken 排名第一，因為它非常有名地涵蓋了韓國半導體領域。At Kaito, we track all the discussions across social media in terms of the stock discussions. What we found is because X is naturally the global town hall, it's best suited for global stock discussions nowadays. The global stock market is now a very integrated supply chain, right? So if we're talking about semiconductors, it's not just about the AI demand in the U.S. There's a lot of information that you should be tracking in Korea, in Japan, in Taiwan. So naturally, voices across the world are very, very important. So on the graph, you can see this is what we measure in terms of the influence across all of the accounts talking about stocks. Junken is number one because it's very famously covering the Korean semiconductor space.
Serenity，顯然是一個非常非常大的帳號，擁有全球的觀眾，但在華語國家有著龐大的追隨者。這有很多例子顯示，來自非常不同背景和聲音、地理位置的帳號，正在塑造股票相關的討論。Serenity, obviously a very, very big account, global audience, but huge following in the Chinese-speaking countries. There are many examples that accounts with very different set of background and voices, geographies are shaping the stock discourse.
我們也觀察到，企業本身也積極回應這股趨勢。以前財報電話會議大多只有音檔，僅限買方和賣方分析師參加。現在越來越多公司改用影片形式，甚至直接在 YouTube 或自家 App 上直播，讓全球投資人都能參與、提問。我們相信這個趨勢會越來越普及。What we found is companies are now also very actively reacting and responding to the trend. Back in the day, when I was done into earnings call, it's mostly audio only and it's mostly exclusive to buy-side and sell-side analysts. Nowadays, that's completely changing. More and more companies are doing this on a video format, and they're doing it on YouTube, at sometimes their own app. So allow everyone in the world to openly join the earnings call, but also be asking questions. We believe that more and more companies will be joining the trend.
社群影響力與市場價值
現在散戶參與股市越來越多，大家也越來越依賴社群媒體獲取資訊、形成投資論點。因此，擁有大量粉絲、能影響市場的帳號，價值也水漲船高。像是研究機構 Centrini 的社群帳號，過去一年粉絲暴增，甚至傳出以 1 億美元出售，這比很多小型投資銀行的估值還高，顯示市場對這類帳號的價值認可。So now, with more and more retail participating in the stock market and with more and more retail actively getting information from the social media to form their thesis, there's no surprise that some of the accounts that have large following and have big impact on the stock market is now being valued at a very high price. Centrini, which is the research entity, has a big social media account. That grew significantly over the past year was reported or rumored to be sold for $100 million. And this number is even higher than some of the outside boutique investment banks valuation, right? So that speaks to itself in terms of how much value market is ascribing to a account that has a huge following in the stock trading market.
我認為未來這只會越來越明顯。年輕世代花在社群媒體上的時間越來越多，就連我們這一代，依賴社群媒體形成投資論點的機率也比過去高兩到三倍。Gen Alpha 平均每天花四到九小時盯著螢幕，等他們長大後，從社群媒體獲取投資資訊只會更普遍。I think it's probably not controversial to say that in the future, this is only going to be a one-way train. We all know that how the generations below us are spending more and more time on social media. But even just our generation, it's roughly two to three times much more likely to be relying on social media to form our investment thesis. And if you look at the behaviors of the Gen Alpha generation, people on average spending four to nine hours a day, you know, looking at their screens. So once these people grow up, it's probably more likely that they will be getting a lot more information from social media to determine which stocks that they're going to be buying.
社群訊號與機構投資策略
所以，現在我們與許多機構交流時，他們都在研究社群媒體和社群訊號如何反映市場情緒，或者這些訊號如何被運用在他們目前正在部署的各種策略中。這裡我舉兩個例子，一個是SK Hynix，另一個是Micron，這兩家公司顯然都是散戶持股比例很高的股票。但其實這種例子到處都是。在這兩個案例中，你會發現每當市場情緒出現極端的定位時，當地的股價也會出現非常劇烈的波動。所以我們看到，無論是在主觀操作還是系統化策略中，這些方法都已經被廣泛應用。So, a lot of the institutions that we speak to nowadays have been studying how social media and social signals are reflection of, or are being used in various different strategies that they're deploying currently. Here I'm giving two examples. One is SK Hynix, one is Micron, both of which are obviously heavily retail-owned stocks. But the examples are everywhere. But in both of these cases, you see that whenever there is very extreme market sentiment positioning, that also corresponds to very extreme price actions locally as well. So we're seeing these being implemented across the board in both discretionary and systematic strategies.
在判斷僅僅依靠散戶資金流或散戶情緒來嘗試了解哪些是保證金買家與賣家，以及他們的相對部位時，還有，試圖分辨這些資金流是來自散戶還是機構。很明顯地，在系統化操作上，人們也會把這些因素作為其中一個參考。他們會用這些資訊來決定自己的因子模型。Discretionary in terms of just using retail flow or retail sentiment to try to understand where the margin buyers and sellers are and the relative positioning and, you know, deciphering whether the flow is from retail versus institution. Obviously, systematically, people are using these as one of the factors. They will be using to determine their factor models.
集體信念的可見化與未來趨勢
回到一句老話，市場其實就是集體信念的展現。現在隨著散戶參與度提升、社群媒體成為主要資訊來源，這個集體信念的結構也在改變，而且變得更透明、更容易觀察。社群媒體就是讓市場投票結果公開可見的地方。This goes back to a very old saying that, effectively, if you think about the market in a very abstract way, that's an expression of collective belief. The only difference now is as more and more retail participating in the market, and as more and more retail are getting such information from social media. And that collective belief, the structure of that collective belief is changing, and at the same time, that collective belief is now being more visible on social media. This is what I said, that social media is where the votes are visible.
Kaito 長期研究股市，我自己也研究很久了，也協助許多機構掌握這些巨變。如果你對這些趨勢有興趣，歡迎聯絡我們。我們可以協助你理解，為什麼 mindshare（心智佔有率）和市場情緒，會成為現今股市甚至未來市場的關鍵力量。謝謝大家今天的時間。So, Kaito obviously has been studying the stock market. Me myself has been studying the stock market for a long time. We've been helping a lot of institutions. Studying kind of these mega trends. So if any of these are interesting, you know, feel free to get in touch. We'll help you understand how mindshare and sentiment are becoming a much more important market forces in today's stock market and probably in the years to come in the market as well. Thank you very much for the time today.
