Arkham 執行長 Miguel Morel 對談：鏈上情報、穩定幣與未來金融透明革命

0:00Arkham Intelligence 的願景與服務

0:00Miguel，先讓還不認識 Arkham Intelligence 的朋友快速了解一下，能不能用 30 秒簡單介紹一下 Arkham Intelligence 是什麼？你在 Arkham 做什麼？Miguel, just starting off for anyone who's new to Arkham Intelligence, just very quickly in like under 30 seconds, can you just want to go through what Arkham Intelligence is and what you do at Arkham?

0:18我大約六年前創立了 Arkham，目標是把區塊鏈上所有公開可取得的資料集去匿名化。簡單來說，就是把像 Bitcoin、Ethereum、Tron、Solana 這些鏈上的所有錢包，利用公開資訊去推敲出背後的個人或機構是誰。然後我們把這些資訊提供給大眾和我們的機構客戶。I founded Arkham about six years ago with a vision to take all of the sort of different publicly available data sets within blockchain and de-anonymize them. So in essence, it means to take all of the different wallets that exist on a particular chain, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tron, Solana, you name it, and essentially use publicly available information to de-anonymize or to figure out who the individual or institution behind that particular wallet is. And then provide that as a service to the general public and also for our institutional customers.

0:53所以這其實不只是追蹤錢包地址而已，更廣義來說是區塊鏈情報服務。Yeah, so much broader. It's blockchain intelligence, much broader than just tracking wallet addresses.

0:59穩定幣的未來與鏈上透明度

0:59現在穩定幣大概是加密貨幣最實用的真實世界應用之一。你怎麼看未來幾年穩定幣的發展？如果有數兆美元上鏈，會發生什麼事？So stablecoins are probably one of the best crypto real-world use cases right now. And I'm curious, where do you see it going in the next few years, and what happens when trillions of dollars is brought on-chain?

1:13其實我一開始進入區塊鏈產業就是做穩定幣，當時就覺得穩定幣能讓大家用更低的手續費轉帳，而且速度更快，不需要中介。用穩定幣比傳統法幣管道快、便宜、效率高，甚至更容易找到收益，這也是為什麼市場會這麼大、還會繼續成長的原因之一。Absolutely. So I actually, funnily enough, started my career of blockchain in stablecoins and working with stablecoins, with this kind of general vision that stablecoins could be a way for people to make transactions for a much lower cost in terms of the fees. They could make transactions that could reach the other person a lot faster without an intermediary. There's a lot of reasons why somebody would want to use a stablecoin as opposed to using fiat rails, right? It's faster, it's quicker, it's cheaper. There are easier ways to find yield compared to getting it from a bank. And I think that that's one of the reasons why the market has grown so much and why it will continue to grow significantly.

1:56我認為從鏈上分析的角度來看，穩定幣最有趣的一點就是它的可追蹤性。即使到現在，當人們使用傳統金融基礎設施時，你其實也在依賴一些舊有的技術來追蹤和追查資金的流動。一般來說，舉例來說，當人們彼此之間匯款時，這其實會很困難，而且你還是要承擔對手方風險，因為你得問對方：「我的錢在哪裡？」當對方聲稱他們已經付款或已經把錢匯給你時。使用穩定幣，你其實可以即時取得這些資訊，而且這種方式是無法造假的。這是一個無法偽造的訊號。I think from an on-chain analytics perspective, one of the things that's most interesting about stablecoins is the general traceability. I think even now, when people use traditional financial infrastructure, you're also relying on legacy pieces of technology in order to track and trace the movement of funds. In general, when people, for example, send each other a wire, it can be very difficult, and you're still taking on counterparty risk where you're asking the person, Where is my money? when they claim to have, you know, paid for something or sent you funds. With a stablecoin, you actually have the ability to get access to this information in real time in a way that's actually unfakeable. It's an unfakeable signal.

2:39當我傳給你一個 Arkham 連結或 Etherscan 連結，顯示資金正匯入你所提供的錢包時，這就是一個無法造假的訊號，當人們提供這種證據時就是如此。我認為，這種情況未來會在穩定幣上以更大規模發生。When I send you an Arkham link or an Etherscan link showing that the funds are on the way to the wallet that you provided, it's an unfakeable signal when people provide that. And I think that this will happen on a much grander scale with stablecoins.

2:53綜合以上這些優點，還有對手風險降低，這就是為什麼穩定幣會爆炸性成長，而且還會繼續擴大。So when you take all of that into consideration, all of the different benefits that I mentioned before, in addition to the sort of lowering of counterparty risk. I think that that is going to be one of the reasons why it's blown up so much, and it will continue to grow.

3:07鏈上證券與資訊流動性革命

3:07把美元上鏈只是區塊鏈的一種應用，這幾年我們也看到證券、商品、債券、貨幣市場基金等資產的代幣化快速成長。你覺得如果股票也變成代幣化、全球 24 小時可交易、而且可編程，世界會變成什麼樣子？I mean, bringing dollars on-chain is one use case of crypto and blockchain technology. But what we've seen a massive proliferation of over the past few years is tokenized securities: stocks, commodities, bonds, money market funds. So I'm curious in terms of what will does it look like when you have tokenized stocks, for example. Instantly tradable, globally accessible, you know, 24/7, you can trade it wherever, and then of course programmable. Like, what does that world look like?

3:35從Arkham的角度來回答這個問題，如果有一天所有東西突然都被代幣化，所有東西都上鏈了，對Arkham來說會是什麼樣子？答案是，這將會是一個資訊變得更加流動的世界。那這是什麼意思呢？我的意思是，現在在股票、大宗商品以及其他各種金融資產的金融世界裡，存在著大量的資訊，而這些資訊目前都被關在門後。這些資訊存在於私人公司的伺服器、券商、證券交易所裡，以一種大眾無法檢視的方式被保存著。To answer this question from the POV of Arkham, what does it look like for Arkham in a world where everything all of a sudden becomes tokenized and everything is on-chain? The answer to that is this is a world where information becomes a lot more liquid. And what do I mean by that? What I mean by that is right now, a lot of information that exists in the financial world of stocks, commodities, and other forms of financial assets, it exists behind closed doors. It exists within a server of a private company, of a brokerage, of a stock exchange. In a way that is not viewable by the public.

4:15因此，對沖基金、交易公司、流動性提供者，他們必須進行各種非常極端、獨特的資料蒐集方式，才能獲取資訊，判斷接下來在市場上該怎麼做。在一個所有這些資料——誰在買哪一檔股票、哪一個RWA、哪一種商品——都上鏈的世界裡，像Arkham這樣的平台就能夠蒐集所有這些資訊，就像我們現在針對加密貨幣所做的一樣，並且讓人們能夠了解是哪些人在進行交易、他們為什麼要進行這些交易，還有這些交易對市場意味著什麼——這是在目前的股票市場中無法做到的。And so hedge funds, trading firms, liquidity providers, they have to do all these kind of, like, very extreme, unique forms of data gathering in order to get information to figure out what to do next in the market. In the world where all of this data of who is buying which stock, which RWA, which commodity. In the world where all of that goes on-chain, then platforms like Arkham will be able to take all of that information, much in the same way we do at present with cryptocurrencies, and give people a way to understand who the people making transactions are, why they're making those trades and transactions, and what that means for the market in a way that you can't do right now with stocks.

4:58這一切都是有延遲的。當某人對某家公司的某種股票採取巨額部位時，一般來說，你會有一個季度的延遲，也就是 90 天，才需要向 SEC 或其他監管機構公開這些資訊，讓其他人能夠將這些資訊納入他們的決策考量。當這種情況發生在加密貨幣時，當某人購買了十億美元的 Bitcoin 並將其轉移到冷錢包時，我可以立即看到這個動作，對吧？我可以直接從區塊鏈上看到，然後把這個資訊上傳到 Arkham Intelligence。All of it is on a lag. When somebody takes an enormous position in some kind of stock of a company, generally speaking, you're going to have a quarter delay, 90 days before that information is required by the SEC or by another regulator to actually go public in a way that then people can factor into their decision making. When this happens in crypto, when somebody buys a billion dollars of Bitcoin and that moves into a cold wallet, I can see that instantly, right? I can see that immediately from the blockchain and then upload it onto Arkham Intelligence.

5:30這將會徹底改變人們在我們市場中進行交易的方式，因此會讓市場變得更加有流動性，最終也會為使用者帶來更好的體驗。This is going to completely change the way in which people trade within our markets, and therefore it's going to make things a lot more liquid and ultimately will result in a better experience for the customers.

5:41這樣一來，資訊就不再只被銀行、傳統金融機構壟斷，而是大家都能參與、能研究這些傳統金融巨頭的動向。Yeah, so no longer the information silos just within these banks, not the opaque traditional financial system most people know. You open sourceing it for everyone, so everyone can participate and also study what these TradFi giants are doing.

5:54預測市場的鏈上新價值

5:54我們剛剛聊到穩定幣、代幣化證券，現在預測市場也很熱門，像 Kalshi、Polymarket 都來參加這次活動。你怎麼看預測市場，特別是建立在區塊鏈上的預測市場，有什麼獨特價值？這個領域未來幾年會怎麼發展？Now, we've mentioned stablecoins, we mentioned, you know, tokenized securities. There's no doubt that right now, in vogue, prediction markets, right? Over here we've got Kalshi and Polymarket at the event. Of course, it's all in the Lexicon, public Lexicon. We've seen it in terms of all types of events usually have an odds attached to it from one of these prediction markets themselves. So why do you think prediction markets potentially, especially those that are built on-chain, issued on a blockchain, settled on a blockchain, why that is a unique value add? And how do you see this particular sector of prediction markets, so on-chain prediction markets, how do you see that growing over the next few years?

6:33預測市場因為各種不同的原因而非常有趣。我認為如果我要簡化說明為什麼預測市場比起直接買入一項資產來交易更好，最大的差異點大概就是你可以表達意見的方式。人們可能因為很多不同的原因去交易某個特定資產，比如股票，或者他們可能會交易某種商品。大致來說，過去人們能夠表達他們對於未來走勢看法的唯一方式，就是買進該資產或做空它。Prediction markets are really interesting for a variety of different reasons. I think if I had to distill why they are a better form of trading compared to just buying an asset directly, probably the thing that's going to make the biggest difference is the way in which you can express an opinion about something. There are many different reasons why somebody might trade a particular asset, such as a stock, or they might trade a commodity. And broadly speaking, the only way in which people have previously been able to express their opinions about what they believe is going to happen is by either buying the asset or shorting it.

7:17而這並不一定是表達一個人對世界將會發生什麼事情的最直接或最有效率的方式。如果我實際上在看像是蘋果股票這樣的東西，而我相信，你知道，我有某種直覺，認為蘋果其實會賣出某個數量的全新 iPhone Duo。如果我相信他們會在某個特定時間點前賣出一定數量的這款手機，也許我並不想單純透過買進股票來表達我對未來發展的看法。And this is not necessarily the cleanest or most efficient way to express what one believes is going to happen in the world. If I'm actually looking at something like Apple stock, and I believe, you know, I have some hunch that actually Apple is going to sell X number of iPhones of these new iPhone Duos that have come out. If I believe they're going to sell a certain number of them, by a certain period of time, maybe I don't want to express my belief about what's going to happen by just merely buying the stock.

7:51如果有一個新的資訊出現，假設我相信接下來一季會有一定數量的 iPhone 被賣出，所以我決定買進這家公司的股票，結果突然間 CEO 被換掉，或者有大量員工離職之類的事情發生，導致股價下跌。其實我並不想對領導團隊或執行團隊未來的發展發表任何看法，但現在我卻被動地被牽連進來。如果我只是單純想表達我對 iPhone 銷售狀況的看法呢？現在，預測市場其實已經讓人們有能力做到這件事了。What if there's a new piece of information where, okay, I believe that a certain number of iPhones are going to get sold over the next quarter, I decide to buy the stock, and then all of a sudden the CEO gets replaced or there's a mass exodus of employees or something, and the stock goes down. Well, I didn't want to express an opinion about what I thought was going to happen with the leadership team or the executive team, and now all of a sudden I'm caught on the sideline. What if I just want to express my belief about what's going to happen with the iPhones? Well, now all of a sudden prediction markets have actually given people the ability to do that.

8:25他們現在可以非常清楚地在這些預測市場中，針對他們認為即將在世界上發生的非常特定事件下注並表達自己的意見。這是一種更乾淨、更安全的方式，讓你真正參與其中，並且用實際的金錢來支持你的看法，相較於只是投入到一個包含各種不同變數的綜合市場池中——像是商品或不同公司的市場。因此，我認為基於這個原因，預測市場很可能會持續大幅成長。我不知道它會變得多大，但我確實認為，大家透過預測市場來表達自己信念，這背後有一個很真實的故事。They can now cleanly bet and express their opinion on very particular things that they think are going to happen in the world in the form of these prediction markets. And that's just a much cleaner and safer way of you putting skin in the game and putting your money where your mouth is, compared to just buying into this general pool of all of these different variables of what might happen in the market of. Commodities are different companies. So I think for that reason, prediction markets will probably continue to grow a ton. I don't know how big. I do think that there is a real story there of people using prediction markets to express their beliefs.

9:00我確實認為現在有一定程度的機構參與，以及流動性提供者正在進場。至於它是否會像股票市場一樣龐大，我覺得這還有待觀察，但我確實認為這方面的種子已經種下了。I do think that there's some amount of institutional involvement and liquidity providers getting involved. Whether or not it's going to be as big as the stock market, I think. You know, it's still to be seen, but I certainly think that the seeds are there for that.

9:14預測市場讓你更乾淨地表達對某個事件的看法，而且資訊流動也更透明。如果有市場還不知道的新消息，預測市場的價格反應會比傳統封閉系統更快、更明顯。Yeah, it's a much cleaner way of expressing a view on a particular event, right? And it's also, I think, the way that the information can come out. If there is some sort of information the market doesn't know, you can see it more easily played out on a prediction market than any sort of, like, hidden information behind a closed wall.

9:32鏈上身份揭露對交易者的意義

9:32Arkham 的重點是揭露鏈上活動背後的實體，不只是錢包地址或交易本身。你認為交易者和投資人為什麼需要知道這些實體是誰？這對他們有什麼幫助？So Arkham is focused on basically identifying identities and entities behind, or entities more specifically, behind a lot of blockchain activity, not just about the addresses or, you know, the transactions themselves. So why do you think it helps for specifically traders and investors knowing about the entities that are behind a lot of these? Clusters of transaction. How do they make use of that information, and why is it so important for them?

10:02所以我認為，整體來說，市場有點像是一個黑盒子。這裡有各種不同的資產，因為各種不同的原因，價格會上上下下，而一開始，沒有人知道為什麼。任何交易者、任何投資公司的工作，就是運用他們的智慧和技術，去了解更多關於那個特定市場、那個資產，以及這個世界的資訊，從而對接下來會發生什麼做出更好的預測。能夠預測接下來會發生什麼的關鍵變數之一，就是要了解背後推動這些變動的人。這些事情不是孤立發生的。交易不是在真空中進行的。So I think the market, generally speaking, is a little bit of a black box. There are all of these different assets that move in price up or down for a variety of different reasons, and to start, no one knows why. And the job of any trader, the job of any investment firm, is to use their intelligence and their technology to figure out more things about that particular market, about that asset, and about the world to make better predictions about what's going to happen next. One of the key variables for being able to predict what happens next is understanding the people behind the movements. These things don't happen in isolation. Trades do not happen in a vacuum.

10:46股票被買賣，或是加密貨幣被買賣，這並不是一種自然發生的現象。每一筆交易的背後都有一家公司。每一筆交易的背後都有一個個人，也就是交易者，他們都有自己的投資論點。關於他們為什麼要這麼做。如果你能夠了解這個人，並且了解他們為什麼要這麼做，你就能更好地預測他們下一次什麼時候會再這麼做。It is not a naturally arising phenomenon that stocks are bought and sold or cryptocurrencies are bought and sold. There's a company behind that transaction. There's an individual, a trader behind every single trade, and they have a thesis. For why they are doing that. If you come to understand that person, and you come to understand why it is that they are doing that, you can better predict when they're going to do it the next time.

11:12當然，有些人會用量化方式只看價格、成交量、利率等數據來交易，但我們走的是完全不同的路線，讓大家從質化角度去了解市場裡的參與者。經濟學很簡單，價格取決於供需，而供需就是這些人和機構在買賣資產。我們就是幫大家搞清楚這些人，並把這些資訊提供給用戶。Yes, there is a framework by which people can trade purely on a quantitative basis. You are able to take information about asset prices, volumes, funding rates, interest rates, these types of things, and solely through the lens. Solely through a quantitative lens, you're able to analyze how one can better make money in the market. We take a completely different approach, one where people can, from a qualitative basis, come to understand who are all of the participants within this market. It's an incredibly simple economic idea that prices move depending on supply and demand, and supply and demand is generated. By individuals and entities and institutions who are buying and selling these different assets, we come to understand those people and we provide that information to the customer.

11:58這真的很重要，因為你可以做再多基本面或技術分析，但如果有大戶（whale）突然把一堆幣丟到市場砸盤，所有分析都沒用了。所以追蹤這些大錢包集群真的很關鍵。Yeah, that's such a good point because you can do as much analysis as you want on the fundamentals or the technicals of an asset class or a stock, but if you have a big whale, for example, that is going to bring a bunch of, on the crypto side of it, bring a bunch of coin to the market and dump it. It can kill all the analysis, so that's why it's very important to keep track of all these large clusters of addresses.

12:19加密貨幣從資產到基礎建設的演變

12:19現在回頭看加密貨幣的發展，感覺它已經不只是資產類別，更像是底層基礎建設。你覺得我們現在走到哪一步？未來幾年會怎麼發展？So it's interesting now to think about how crypto has evolved. I mean, we've both been in crypto for quite some time as an asset class, and it seems as if it's become much more just of, like, infrastructure. Like, it's been separated out from just the asset class crypto to an actual underlying infrastructure. So I guess the question is here, like... How far along are we on that path from crypto being disassociated with an asset class and just like an underlying infrastructure? And where do you think it's going in the next few years?

12:48我認為，從一種比較口語化的角度來看，人們就是這樣描述 Bitcoin，然後再描述加密貨幣和區塊鏈。我認為 Bitcoin 已經鞏固了自己作為一種價值儲存工具，或者說是一種人們用來對沖的手段。從本質上來說，所有其他形式的貨幣，其實就是一種新的數位貨幣形式，人們可以在其中儲存自己的財富。到目前為止，這已經非常成熟了。你知道，它的市值已經超過一兆美元。我認為它還會繼續成長，而且我覺得大家大致上都理解它的使用情境，也已經達到它預期的普及程度。另一方面，基礎設施我還是認為非常早期。為什麼？因為絕大多數的資金目前還是以數位形式存在於傳統基礎設施上。I think this is the way in which, from a kind of colloquial perspective, people describe Bitcoin and then cryptocurrency and blockchain. I think that Bitcoin has solidified itself as a kind of store of value or means of people hedging against. All other forms of kind of money, in essence, it's a new digital form of money where one can store their wealth. That is very mature at this point. It's, you know, it's over a trillion dollars. I think it's going to continue to grow, and I think people generally understand the use case, and it has reached its intended adoption. The infrastructure, on the other hand, I still think is incredibly early. Why? Because the overwhelming majority of money exists in a digital format on legacy infrastructure.

13:35它不存在於現金中。它也不存在於區塊鏈上。它以金融帳本的形式存在於摩根大通、花旗銀行、摩根士丹利這些地方，而這就是全球95%的貨幣存在的地方，也是金錢普遍存在的方式。當這些開始移動到鏈上時，我認為你才能說我們這個產業開始成熟，並且在基礎建設方面真的取得了重大進展。我目前還沒看到這一點。我看到過一些實驗，也看到過一些比較小眾、只存在於加密貨幣市場裡的東西，但我還沒看到它真正達到現實世界的規模，還不能說一切都正在建立在區塊鏈基礎建設上。It doesn't exist in cash. It doesn't exist in blockchains. It exists in the form of a financial ledger on J.P. Morgan, on Citibank, on Morgan Stanley, and that's where 95% of global currencies exist and where money exists in general. When that starts moving on-chain, then I think you can make the argument that we're starting to mature as an industry and we're actually making significant progress on the infrastructure side. I have not seen that yet. I've seen experiments. I've seen some things that are a little bit more niche and exist within the crypto market, but I haven't seen it hit that real-world scale yet to be able to say that everything is getting built on blockchain infrastructure.

14:17未來三年鏈上經濟的驚喜

14:17最後聊聊預測市場，也來預測一下三年後會發生什麼事。如果 2029 年我們再坐下來，你覺得三年後有什麼會讓大家驚訝的鏈上新發展？Okay, got it. And then finally, just speaking about prediction markets, it's time to bring out our crystal ball and make a prediction for three years' time. So, 2049, 2029, if we sit in a year again, what do you think is something that will surprise most people that's come on-chain, or how the on-chain economy has evolved in three years' time? What do you think?

14:37最明顯的就是 Bitcoin 永遠比大家預期的還高，每次預測都會被它嚇到。除此之外，我覺得大家會發現區塊鏈其實比傳統金融基礎建設更好用。未來我很期待大家都在鏈上做事，資金流動都能即時看到。Well, there is the obvious one, which is Bitcoin is always a lot higher than you think it's going to be. Every time I've tried to make this kind of prediction, it ends up being that Bitcoin is—Way higher than I thought it was going to be. So that's absurd. Predictions. Yeah, that's absolutely going to be one of them. And I do think that over time, people will come to realize that it's just a much better consumer product. Blockchains are a much better consumer product than our legacy existing financial infrastructure. And I look forward to a world where everyone is doing things on-chain, and I can finally see when money is actually being transferred to me in real time.

15:11我也很期待三年後這個世界。謝謝你，Miguel，今天的對談很精彩。謝謝大家來參加！I'm looking forward to that world as well in three years' time. Thanks a lot, Miguel. Great chat. Thank you guys for coming. Thank you so much. Right. Thank you.