DWF Labs 管理合夥人 Andrei Grachev：願景、流動性與市場創新

0:00市場變動與新舊對決

0:00我已經連續四年在這個活動、這個舞台上發表演講了。市場一直在變，唯一不變的是我們的簡報、我的 pitch deck，以及我們在 Token Week 的活動，從來都不是在賣東西，也不是在做行銷或廣告。重點只是分享一些想法、一些價值，還有我們對最近市場趨勢的感受，這些發展可以幫助我們，也能幫助你們大家一起打造、賺錢、有效率地交易，無論外面發生什麼事。It is already four years when I am talking from this event, from this stage, and what I would say that the market is constantly changing, and the only thing that remains unchanged, in my opinion, is that our presentations and my pitch deck and our events during the Token Week, it's never about any sales, it's never about any marketing or advertising. It's all about just sharing some thoughts, just sharing some value, and our feeling regarding recent market trends, regarding recent developments that can help us and that can help you guys to build, to make money, and to trade efficiently while everything is going on around.

1:07我覺得現在的市場，每一年都越來越難，變化越來越多。幾年前，我們主要面對的是加密貨幣相關的事件，還有一些監管事件會影響市場價格和狀況。現在則有更多政治事件、跨平台、跨產業的事件，比如傳統金融的永續合約（TradFi perpetuals）會從加密市場抽走流動性。有些中東地區的事件也會把流動性帶到像石油價格這種傳統金融的代幣化永續合約。這整個環境帶來威脅，也帶來機會，最重要的是我們要隨時做好準備。I think that the current stage and every year is getting harder and harder, that more and more changes are happening. If several years ago, we had mostly crypto events, some regulatory events affecting the market prices and market situation. Now we have many politician events, many kind of cross-platform, cross-industries events like TradFi perpetuals, they take liquidity from crypto markets. Some events in the Middle East, they take liquidity from crypto markets, but brought this liquidity to tokenized perps of, let's say, oil prices and etc. in TradFi. And this whole environment that we see, this whole environment that happens, that we need to take care of. But this creates, like, threats, and this creates opportunities. The main thing is that we have to be ready.

2:09我們必須隨時準備好買、賣或是打造新東西，因為情勢變化真的很快。這就像是新舊世界、新舊市場趨勢和參與者之間的無止盡戰爭。每當有什麼改變，都是瞬間發生。你們應該還記得，像去年這個時候，市場價格創新高，比特幣一度到 125,000 美元，但幾天後 10.10 事件發生，一切就崩盤了。這說明了好事或壞事發生都很快，如果你沒準備好，就無法避險、無法保護自己，也無法把握機會。We always have to be ready and prepared to buy something, or to sell something, or to build something, because situations can happen, like, very fast. And this is the kind of endless war between old world, new world, old market trends and participants, and new market trends and participants. And when something changes, it happens always instantly. You could probably remember, like last year, around this time, like today. Market prices reached all-time high. Bitcoin was 125,000 US dollars per BTC. But just a few days after that, 10.10 happened and everything collapsed. Which says that if something bad or something good happens, it happens like almost instantly, and if you are not prepared, you cannot dehedged, you cannot be protected, and you cannot also take advantage of it.

3:20靈活決策與創新致勝

3:20所以，跟 2020、2021 年的 alt season 或過去的市場週期相比，我們不能總是全押，也不能只持有現金，否則就會變成單邊部位，無法靈活交易或打造新東西。在這種環境下，精簡決策和組織結構非常重要。你可以看到像 Hyperliquid、Tether 這些公司，他們動作很快，能夠抓住市場趨勢，搶下大量市佔率，因為他們決策快、效率高，能隨時調整自己。That's why, comparing to, let's say, 2020, 2021 alt seasons, comparing to previous market cycles, we cannot be always all in, and we cannot be always in cash, because then you would have one-sided positions that just simply don't let you trade, don't let you build. And in this kind of environment, very important to have, like, very lean decision making, very lean structures, and you see that companies like Hyperliquid, like Tether, they are very fast. They are overtaking the market trends, and they capture, like, a huge market share because they can make decisions very fast, very efficient, and adapt themselves to changing trends.

4:21我們公司也是這樣做的。從一開始我們只有 40 人（包含交易員），現在大約 70 人，但我們的市佔率和營運規模跟其他同類型公司一起成長很多。這也是為什麼我覺得來這裡分享很重要，讓大家知道事情怎麼運作。因為如果你只是照著舊的模式、跟著市場進來，不管你是 builder 還是 trader，去模仿現有公司，很可能會失敗，因為市場已經很有效率、很成熟了。你可以在 Token2049、網路、CoinMarketCap 看到很多例子，像有上百家交易所想搶 Binance 的市佔，但都很難，因為市場已經定型。你必須創新，像 Hyperliquid 就是這樣，他們做出新東西，把 Binance 的東西去中心化，賣給社群和投資人，說這是新 meta、更安全，沒有中心化託管風險，大家就愛用、愛交易。其實很簡單，就是把一個大家怕的風險拿掉，就能成功。In our company, we follow the same approach. And since the beginning, when we started, we've been like 40 people together with traders. Now we're like 70 people. But in terms of market share on the market, right, and in terms of scale of operations, together with the other companies like ours, we grew quite a lot. And that's why I think it's good to share and good to be here and explain how things work. Because when you follow some old trends, when you join the market like a builder, like a trader, it doesn't matter, right? And if you take a look at the existing companies. How they work, what they do, and if you try to copy them, if you try just follow their approach, highly likely it would lead to fail because that market already established, it's very efficient, and we can see many examples on the market. You can also see it here in Token2049 area, in the internet, in CoinMarketCap. There are like hundreds of crypto exchanges that are trying to capture market share, let's say from Binance, like centralized ones. But their market share remains like quite small because the market is already there, it's established, right? You should invent something new. That's how Hyperliquid started, right? They invented something new. They just updated the things that Binance did made it like decentralized, sold it to the community, sold it to the investors that, okay, it is new meta, it is very secure, it doesn't have centralized custody risks, and people love it and people trade. It's a very simple approach. You just remove one potential scare from the people view and it works.

6:20我們剛開始時也看到大家都在做 token market making，借錢、提供流動性、賺價差。但我們發現所有專案都想要現金，所以我們開始提供投資服務，直接說：你給我們 deal，我們投資你，雙方都受益，這就是我們的切入點。Tether 也是，他們把傳統金融的匯款流程升級，用去中心化方式解決 SWIFT 和銀行的問題，現在你可以用 USDT 幾乎即時付款（T+0），比起傳統美元現金要等兩三五天，這就是一個小步驟但大升級。對於現在要創業、要交易的人來說，重點是你剛開始時幾乎沒什麼可失去的。像我們八年前開始交易時，只有五萬美金的資本，就算賠光也不會怎樣，但機會很大，我們就抓住了。創業初期沒什麼可失去，頂多花點時間和積蓄，失敗也不會致命，但上檔空間很大。When we started, we also saw that, okay, everyone does this token market making. They take loans, provide liquidity, and take advantage from this and make money from this. But then we saw that all the projects, they want to have some cash. And what we did, we just started offering investments. They say, okay, you give us a deal, we invest in you. It's very simple. It's very beneficial for both sides. It is very profitable, and that's how we appeared, right? Or Tether. They simply upgraded traditional finance, I mean in terms of remittance payments, and replaced these SWIFT-related and normal banking-related issues and complexity by using the decentralized approach, decentralized venues. And now you can have T plus zero, like almost instant payments in USDT, which represents US dollar, comparing to, let's say, two, three, five days delayed dollar payments in, let's say, US dollar cash. This is very simple things. One step, but they improve a lot. And for companies, for people who build something now, who start trading now, I think the main thing, and when we started is the same, right? When you start, you have almost nothing to lose, even if you just start trading, right? When we started trading eight years ago, we had like... Roughly 50,000 US dollars working capital. If we lost our working capital, it would be just like 50K. But our opportunity was, like, huge, and we captured this. When someone starts build something, let's say you build a startup, you build a project with token or without token. In the beginning, you have, you have... Almost nothing to lose. Yes, you will spend some time. You will probably spend some savings, but it would not kill you if you fail. But your upside is huge.

8:25新創優勢與市場週期

8:25當你剛進來時，會看到很多大公司、機構，他們會說我們不這樣做、不那樣做，這就是新舊勢力的戰爭，舊的總是想保護自己的地位，新的則想贏。剛開始時你有很大優勢，因為沒什麼可失去，但上檔無限。現有公司雖然很大、資產多、實力強，但他們也可能失去一切，所以動作很慢、決策效率低，這就是為什麼新進者更有優勢，因為他們更渴望成功、更有動力。如果你看 Apple、Tesla、PayPal、Hyperliquid、Binance、Huobi、Tether，他們一開始都是 startup 模式。But when you come, you will see like big guys, like institutions, other big companies that will say, okay, we don't do this like this. We don't do that like that, right? It is like constant war between old and new, and old is trying constantly to protect their positions. New is trying to always win. And when you just started, you have a huge advantage. You have nothing to lose, but your upside is unlimited. Existing companies, they can be like super huge, super big. They have a lot of things, they have a lot of assets, a lot of power, and they can lose everything. That's why they move very slow. Their decision-making procedures are not really efficient, and that's why they have less advantage comparing to newcomers who are greedy, who are hungry, and want to win. And basically, if you take a look at many, many things, from Apple to Tesla to PayPal to Hyperliquid to Binance to Huobi all time or Tether, they all were and they all are like in startup mode.

9:42跟 2017、2020、2021 甚至去年相比，市場基本面一直在變。無論你是做交易還是創業，決策時都要評估市場和情緒有沒有變、方向對不對。如果你今天只是因為某個題材很熱就去做，通常不會成功。不過如果現在是泡沫，你也可以參與、投機一下，做多做空都可以，重點是要抓住機會。像現在 perpetual DEX 很紅，大家都在玩 Hyperliquid，覺得這是好生意。但如果你現在才開始做 perpetual DEX，打算三年後才完成，其實沒什麼意義，因為到時競爭會超級激烈。你應該思考下一個 meta 是什麼，現在開始做，因為潛在損失很有限，這就是藍海策略。Comparing to 2017, 2020, 2021, right, and like even to the previous year, right, you can see that always fundamentals are changing. And when you trade, when you make trading decisions or build those decisions, right, it's always important to kind of evaluate if market changed or not, if sentiment changed or not, if things are going in the right direction or not. Because if you build something today, because today is hyped, highly likely it would not work. But it makes sense if it is a bubble today and you see that it's hyped. It's okay to participate in this, speculate something, let's say go long or go short, depends on the bubble situation, right? And take some advantage from this action. But, for example, today perpetual DEXs are very popular. Everyone is praying on Hyperliquid, and everyone feels that it's very good business. If you start doing perpetual DEX today and plan to finish it, let's say, in three years, I think it doesn't make much sense because in three years it would be many, many players that are already doing something, and competition would be insane. But if you take a look what can happen next, what is the next meta, it makes sense to start building this because, as I said, your potential losses are very limited and very small. And yeah, it's exactly regarding this blue ocean kind of strategies, blue ocean approach.

11:22產品真需求與市場效率

11:22現在一切都在變，監管環境也在變，大家手上的錢變少，公司資金也少但需求更多，所以要賣假解決方案很難。比如你推出一個超級合規的加密交易所，要專業投資人才可以交易永續合約，雖然很合規、很專業，但大家不愛用，還是會去 Hyperliquid 或 Binance 交易，因為那才是真正解決問題的方案。如果你做的是大家真的需要的東西，比如支付，大家就會買單。這幾年市場從重數量轉向重品質。以前只有幾個 meme coin 市值就幾十億，現在有幾百萬個 meme coin 但市值都很小，市場變得很有效率但也很冷清。Because now, when everything is changing, regulatory framework is changing, like people have less money, companies have less money but more needs, it's quite hard, for example, to sell. Exactly. Like fake solutions. I mean fake solution. For example, you go to the market with, like, super regulated crypto exchange that requires a lot of things, let's say, to be, like, a professional investor to trade perps. Yes, it is very... it's very compliant. It is very professional, but people don't like it. People will go to Hyper, people will go to Binance and just trade. And it's real solution for real trouble. For example, now if you want to build, let's say, some, okay, I do tokenize some small yields, or I don't know, this building to sell to people and do it very compliantly and do it very professionally, it may not work because people will not buy this. But if you do, for example, payments, if you do, for example, things that people need, people will. And what the last cycles and the last years changed, they changed quality approach over quantity approach. You see that several years ago, we had like just a few meme coins that were at billion valuations. Now it's millions of meme coins with hundreds of thousand valuation. Market is very efficient, but it's dead.

12:58COVID 時期或 2022 年有很多 Degen 玩家炒 meme coin，當時只有幾個大戶，現在大戶變多，因為 Degen 都賠錢了。我們正在經歷這個過程，快要走完，市場和資金會慢慢恢復。我們也從沒 KYC、比特幣極端自由主義，走到現在的高度監管。以前推動數位自由的機構，現在都在推動監管。現在大家會討論去中心化協議該不該凍結被盜資金，十年前大家會說當然不能，現在則一半一半，因為一切都變了。We had many, like, Degen players during COVID times or 2022 and last years who played meme coins. We had just a few whales, but now we have more whales because degens lost money, right? And we need to go through, and we're frankly almost done with this, to recover their money and recover the market. We had freedom approach, okay, that no KYC, nothing, Bitcoin maxi, to very regulated approach. And same people, same institutions who pushed for, let's say, digital freedom, now they are all pushing for... Regulation, right? And we see that, okay, if it is correct, the decentralized protocol doesn't freeze stolen money or not, right? And if 10 years ago the answer would be exactly, yes, it's correct. Now it's half-half because, yeah, everything has changed, right?

13:56未來趨勢與投資方向

13:56展望未來，我們投資或支持的東西也更聚焦在基本面。未來一兩年，TradFi 永續合約（perps）、RWA 資產、AI 產品（雖然是泡沫但現在進場風險低）、還有 Degen 產品都值得關注。只要產品夠簡單、能吸引用戶，就很有機會。時代一直在變，但新舊對抗永遠不變，舊的總是會輸，然後又有新的出現，週期就這樣一直重複。謝謝大家來聽。And if we take a look at the future. If we take a look at the things that, for example, we invest in or we support in, of course, market is much more complex now, and we're more focused on, like, more fundamental things. I would say trade five per PHOs if you have, like, one, two years time frame. It is reward assets. It is AI products because it's bubble, but it's good to be in this bubble now. No, almost zero risk. And of course, degens. Degens will come, and if you see that products that are very simple and attract users, it's great to be there. Times are changing, but this world is never change. New always fight with old, old always lose, and then someone appears to be new again, and cycle repeats itself. Thanks a lot. Thanks a lot for coming.