量子還沒來，金鑰為什麼先要能換演算法？

0:00量子與 AI 同時壓在密碼學上

0:00大家好。很高興再來新加坡參加 TOKEN2049。今天要談幾件正在會合的趨勢，也會介紹 Project Eleven，以及我們今天要宣布的主打產品 StrongPoint。我們活在一個對區塊鏈、對密碼學來說都很特別的時期。好幾條線同時在走。在座應該都清楚：區塊鏈採用年年往右上走，也在重塑金融。Hey, everybody. It's a pleasure to be back here in Singapore for another TOKEN2049. And yeah, I'm going to be talking about a couple different things today: the convergence of a few different trends, and also going to be telling you a little bit about Project Eleven and our marquee product that we're announcing today, StrongPoint. So, we live in an amazing time in, really, I think, the history of not only blockchains, but cryptography. There's a number of converging trends that are all happening at once. I think everyone in here should be pretty familiar with the fact that blockchain adoption is growing up and to the right year over year, and that's reshaping finance, I think.

0:46再拉開一點，看區塊鏈底下的密碼學，它正被兩件事改寫。一是量子電腦即將到來，等一下會講為什麼這件事要緊。二是 AI 對密碼分析和資安的影響。簡單說：它會大幅改寫這些鏈底下的資安和密碼學，也會改寫以後的典範。有些人聽到量子或 AI 帶來的網路威脅，會覺得悲觀：區塊鏈還有未來嗎？You know, zooming out a little bit and thinking about the cryptography that is underneath that blockchain, or those blockchains, you know, that cryptography is being transformed by two things. One, by the impending arrival of quantum computers, and we'll talk about why that matters in a second. But two, you know, this, like, the advent of AI and its impact on cryptanalysis and, basically, cybersecurity, right? The TL;DR there is that, you know, it's going to radically reshape how cybersecurity and cryptography underneath these blockchains, you know, exists, and it's going to reshape the paradigm for the future. I think it's easy. Some people, I think, find this, you know, relatively pessimistic or depressing around, hey, you know, with all these evolving cyber threats enabled by quantum or by AI, you know, how, like, do blockchains have a future?

1:34我們 Project Eleven 非常肯定有。若要說，我們正活在的這個時刻，反而是從地基重建、做出扛得住未來的基礎設施的機會。StrongPoint 做的就是這個，Project Eleven 做的也是這個。先從區塊鏈講起。在這領域待一陣子的人，大概每天都在看幣價。加密貨幣這個資產類別的市值，過去十五、二十年長得很大。但更大的故事不只是區塊鏈讓人拿加密貨幣去投資、去投機。And we at Project Eleven emphatically believe that they do. And if anything, I think this moment that we're all living through right now is an opportunity to rebuild from the ground up these new foundations to really seize, you know, or, like, create the infrastructure that will ultimately be future-proof. And that's what StrongPoint's all about. That's what Project Eleven's all about. So, okay, I guess— kind of starting point: blockchains, right? So I think folks who have been in this space for a while, I'm sure, check token prices every day for their various, you know, investments or their favorite crypto asset. You know, and obviously, the market cap of cryptocurrency as an asset class has grown and grown massively over the last decade and a half or two decades. But there's a bigger story here, too, which is not just that blockchains enable cryptocurrencies, which are things for people to invest and speculate on.

2:24區塊鏈也愈來愈成為數位金融的地基。我特別拉了這兩張圖，看代幣化和穩定幣支付的走勢，都是往右上。即使過去一年比特幣等價格大致走平，我認為這仍是成長故事。上週我剛從 Morgan Stanley Tech Week 過來，Morgan Stanley 這類銀行也在把數位資產和區塊鏈當以後產品的地基。所以這條線就是往右上。好，這些都沒問題，但量子對區塊鏈意味著什麼？Blockchains are also increasingly becoming the foundation of digital finance. I pulled these two charts specifically to show that, you know, to demonstrate the trends of tokenization and stablecoins for payments, right? And so, up and to the right here. And this is, I think, even though prices over the last year for Bitcoin, et cetera, have been kind of flat. I think it's only a growth story here. And I think I just came from Morgan Stanley Tech Week last week, and, you know, banks like Morgan Stanley and others are leaning into, like, the whole, you know, world of digital assets and blockchains as the foundation of what their future product offerings will look like. And so, like I said, this is just an up-and-to-the-right story here. Okay, so now that's all good, but— what does quantum mean for blockchains?

3:10Shor 演算法對上數位簽章

3:10很短的版本：量子電腦是一種特別的電腦，能打破用來保護、並讓人擁有鏈上數位資產的密碼學。我送一筆比特幣交易時，是在做數位簽章。那簽章基本上就是所有權證明。數位簽章這件事，所有區塊鏈都在用，也普遍暴露在能跑 Shor 演算法的量子電腦前面。各鏈的暴露方式可以切得很細，但投影片最下面那句才是標題。The very simple TL;DR is that a quantum computer is a special kind of computer that can break the underlying cryptography that secures and enables ownership of digital assets on blockchains. Like, when I send a Bitcoin transaction, I'm creating a digital signature. That signature is basically my proof of ownership, right? The digital signature part, which is universal across all blockchains, is universally vulnerable to a quantum computer that could run an algorithm called Shor's algorithm. And, you know, there's kind of different ways to slice and dice the vulnerability across chains, but the headline is at the bottom of the slide.

3:58每條區塊鏈都用數位簽章做授權和驗證。私鏈、公鏈，比特幣、以太坊、Solana，你叫得出名字的鏈，都靠這套底層密碼原語。各生態會用不同方法減少部分公鑰暴露，所以哪些東西現在就有風險，細節不一樣。但結論是：全部都有風險，全部都得改。開場我說過，這可以看成壞事，我最終看成好事：這是演進、把系統做得更強的機會。Every blockchain uses digital signatures for authorization and authentication. Private blockchains, public blockchains. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, name your blockchain, they all rely on this underlying cryptographic primitive, right? Now, you know, different ecosystems kind of do different things to prevent some public keys from being exposed, and so there's kind of some nuance around what's vulnerable. But the upshot is that everything is vulnerable. Everything will have to change. And again, like I said in my intro slide, We could view that as a bad thing, but I ultimately view this as a good thing, right? This is a chance for us to evolve and make these systems even stronger.

4:48監管時程比量子電腦更早到

4:48量子運算現在走到哪？先講全球監管。跟政府連得最近、對量子研發最有感覺的那些機關，已經在訂標準和規範；愈來愈多發行代幣化資產、穩定幣的金融機構，現在就得遵守。所以問題有兩邊：量子電腦何時出現，以及產業何時得符合各國政府的規定。相關日期不少，挑幾個：NIST，以及 Donald Trump 過去幾個月簽署的行政命令，給美國政府訂了新時程。法國在訂標準，各國政府都在訂。不只政府，Google、Microsoft 這類科技公司也在訂自己要遷移的標準或時間表。技術這一側，過去一年量子電腦從幻想變成短期內可能成真。這張圖來自我們的研究，報告在 report.project11.com，把破解比特幣底層密碼學所需的資源估計彙總在一起。Okay, so what's the status of quantum computing? First off, global regulators, you know, who are connected to governments that probably have the closest pulse on the R&D on the quantum side, are already setting the standards and the regulations that the financial institutions that increasingly are issuing tokenized assets, stablecoins, etc., already have to comply with, right? So there's kind of a question around when does a quantum computer happen versus when does the industry need to comply with basically the government regulations around the world. These are a few of these dates that are relevant, but I guess a highlight reel: you know, NIST, Donald Trump signed an executive order over the past couple months announcing basically a new timeline for the U.S. government. France is outlining some standards. Governments around the world are outlining standards, but not just governments. Tech companies like Google, Microsoft, etc. are basically outlining standards or timelines by which they want their companies to migrate. And on the actual technical development side, I think it's been an incredible story to watch how quantum computers kind of turned from a fantasy into a potential reality in the near term, just over the last year. This chart is based on some research that we did. We have a research report, which you can find on report.project11.com, and it just basically takes and aggregates all of the resource estimates for what it would take for a quantum computer to break the cryptography underlying Bitcoin.

5:41縱軸是對數座標，短時間內掉了好幾個數量級。尤其 2024 年底之後，掉得很陡。這句引文來自 Google 上週為 Argon（他們的新模型之一）發的產品公告。他們沒有直接講 Shor 演算法和密碼分析，但大致在說：可以用 AI 加快量子運算研究。我認為，資源估計崩這麼快、現在之所以變得要緊，這是關鍵之一。講到 AI：就算先不管量子，AI 本身也在壓密碼學，以及整個資安。And you can just see here the y-axis of the chart, by the way, is log scale. So this is like— you know, multiple orders of magnitude of decrease in a relatively short time. You can see the end of the chart, in particular since the end of 2024, you know, it's dropped off precipitously, right? And I have this quote up here. This quote came from a Google product announcement for Argon, which is one of their new models from last week, right? And they, without explicitly referring to Shor's algorithm and cryptanalysis, they more or less said that, hey, we can use AI to accelerate this quantum computing research progress. And I think, you know, that's a key part of why these resource estimates have collapsed so much and why it's becoming relevant now. Speaking of AI, AI itself, forgetting quantum, is putting pressure on not only cryptography but cybersecurity across the board, right? I think.

6:30後量子演算法也被 AI 壓縮

6:30幾乎每週都能看到產業裡有駭客事件或資安缺口，多少跟 AI 有關，或因 AI 才做得到。我這裡主要談密碼學，因為對我來說，這才是未來長什麼樣子的有趣部分。量子電腦正在打破區塊鏈今天依賴的既有密碼學。另外，AI 也在打破、或至少在施壓我們準備遷過去的後量子演算法。這點非常重要，我想停一下。區塊鏈今天靠的橢圓曲線密碼學，扛過幾十年的密碼分析。多數新的後量子演算法，依賴的假設更新、測得比較少。Not a week goes by where we don't see some kind of hack or some kind of security break or something happen in the industry that was somehow AI-enabled or, you know, was made possible by AI. I'm going to talk about mostly the cryptography side here because to me that's part of the interesting story about what the future looks like. So. Quantum computers are breaking the existing cryptography that blockchains rely on today. In addition, AI is kind of breaking or is putting under pressure the post-quantum algorithms that we're all supposed to migrate to. And I want to linger on this point because it's incredibly important to understand. The elliptic curve cryptography that blockchains today rely on has been resilient over decades of cryptanalysis. All of the new post-quantum algorithms, for the most part, rely on different assumptions that have been less tested.

7:20不幸的是，有了 AI，測試它們、甚至打破它們，從未這麼容易。例如 HAWK，曾是 NIST 可能在未來一年標準化的候選，撐過多年密碼分析，剛被 AI 輔助的演算法打破。這類例子很多：AI 正在把產業即將依賴的新密碼學安全餘裕往下壓。另一件跟區塊鏈特別有關的是：後量子密碼學要怎麼做，每個生態的答案都不一樣。Project Eleven 的本業，And unfortunately, now with AI, it's never been easier to test them and potentially break them. And so there's an example, HAWK, which is a NIST standard that was, or a NIST candidate that was potentially going to be next to be standardized over the next year, that just got broken, that survived years of cryptanalysis, and that was via AI-assisted algorithms. You know, using AI algorithms. There's a bunch of examples about how AI is basically just reducing the security margins for all this new cryptography that, again, the industry is all going to rely upon, right? So the other piece here that's relevant to blockchain specifically is that the answer to, hey, what are we going to do about post-quantum cryptography, is different for every ecosystem, basically. So Project Eleven, our whole, you know, M.O.

8:06就是區塊鏈網路的後量子密碼學和安全。我們跟很多主要一層合作。大家走的方向全不一樣。這會影響最終使用經驗和使用者安全，因為機構和基礎設施商現在得接上多套彼此不相容的方案。產業裡，人們選用的密碼學正在分裂。回到標準和監管：這在國家層級也一樣。過去因為 NIST 替全世界訂標準、大家照搬，事情相對容易，那個時期正在結束。is basically post-quantum cryptography and security for blockchain networks. So we work with many of the leading layer ones. And, you know, look, everyone is going all different directions. This has an impact on, you know, on the ultimate user experience and end-user security because, you know, institutions and infrastructure providers ultimately have to integrate now what will end up being multiple disparate, not mutually compatible schemes, right? And so we have this balkanization happening within our industry around the cryptography that people are choosing to adopt. This is true, going back to the standardization and regulation side, this is true nationally too. We kind of are leaving, you know, the, you know, the— kind of era of everything being easy because NIST is setting the standards for the world, and we just adopt those standards.

8:56各國（中國、俄羅斯，連相對穩固的美國盟友韓國）都在訂自己的密碼標準，並預期在當地營運的金融機構遵守。對現有機構和基礎設施商來說，這會變成大麻煩：既有產品和密碼方案得塞進這些標準。這就是 StrongPoint 要處理的。鋪了這麼久，答案是：未來不確定。我們不知道量子電腦多快會到，也不知道 AI 對後量子密碼學會造成多大影響。所以得準備好，保護金鑰的安全基礎設施，得對以後任何情況都有準備。Nation-states around the world, be they China, be they Russia, even South Korea, which is a relatively, you know, stalwart U.S. ally, they're all creating their own cryptography standards, right, that they are going to expect financial institutions that operate in their countries to comply with. So this is going to turn into a big nightmare for existing incumbent institutions that, you know, have to, and infrastructure providers that have to ultimately figure out how to fit their existing product schemes and cryptography schemes inside of these standards. So this is where StrongPoint comes in. So the answer, hopefully you can tell where I'm going, where I've set all this up, is that the future is going to be uncertain, okay? We don't know how quickly a quantum computer will arrive. We don't know what the impact of AI will be on post-quantum cryptography. So the answer is we have to be ready, and our infrastructure and the security infrastructure that secures our keys, most importantly, has to be ready for anything in the future.

9:51StrongPoint：密碼敏捷的託管

9:51這叫密碼敏捷。StrongPoint 是我們今天宣布的主打產品：給後量子、後 AI 時期用的、具備密碼敏捷的數位資產託管。差別在哪？基本上就是彈性。幾乎任何錢包方案、數位資產基礎設施、金鑰管理、託管商，都會在最底層把密碼學烤進去，也就是橢圓曲線。今天這決定很好做，因為每條鏈底層用的橢圓曲線大致相同，只有小差異。未來不會是這樣。This is called crypto-agility. And StrongPoint is our marquee product we're announcing today, is our crypto-agile digital asset custody product for the post-quantum and post-AI era. How is it different? Pretty much just by being flexible, right? At the basic layer of really any wallet scheme or digital asset infrastructure provider, key-management solution, custodian, they all bake in, at the lowest possible level, the cryptography, right? The elliptic-curve cryptography that everything is based on. And that decision is easy to make today because really every blockchain under the hood uses elliptic-curve cryptography, which is more or less the same across every ecosystem with some different tweaks. The future, like I said, is not going to look like that.

10:36量子會讓一些演算法變得脆弱，AI 也會，於是得遷到新方案才能保住資產。StrongPoint 不一樣的地方是：怎麼保護這些資產的政策才是地基，密碼學做在上面、做成模組。模組化就是密碼敏捷的意思。不能把蛋放同一個籃子。現場若有人用過多簽，概念一樣：我不想當唯一簽名的人，需要備援，免得我出事或弄丟裝置，資金全沒。同一想法，只是用在更深的密碼層。這是給誰的？所有人。And quantum is going to change things, going to make some algorithms vulnerable. AI is going to make some algorithms vulnerable. It's going to necessitate migration to new schemes to keep your assets safe. So this is where StrongPoint differs, is the policies around how do we want to secure these assets. That is the foundation. The cryptography is built on top and is meant to be modular, right? So this modularity piece is really what crypto-agility means. We can't put all our eggs in one basket, right? So folks here, if anyone's ever used a multisig, it's the same idea conceptually, which is like, hey, I don't want to be the only signer. I need to have one other fallback point, so it's not just me. If something happens to me or I lose my device, we don't lose all our funds. It's the same idea here, but just applied at a deeper level, at the cryptographic level. Who's this for? Everybody.

11:26以後任何持有數位資產的機構，都得想清楚怎麼管金鑰、怎麼保住資產、怎麼從威脅裡遷走。穩定幣發行人、各類資產發行人、協議基金會。等一下會講我們已經在合作的對象。稍早那張穩定幣交易量的圖，支付和金融這塊會繼續長。任何碰到或持有數位資產的機構，都需要為未來、而不是為過去做的機構級金鑰管理。最後再講量子。到目前為止，這場演講和很多討論裡，量子常被講成怪物。Literally any institution that's holding digital assets in the future. Needs to figure out how they are going to manage their keys, how they are going to keep their assets safe, how they are going to migrate away from threats, right? Stablecoin issuers, asset issuers of all kinds, protocol foundations. We're going to talk about some folks we're working with already in that domain. But, you know, like I showed that slide earlier of all the stablecoin transactions happening over the last few years. This is going to be a growing part of payments, a growing part of finance, and any institution that touches or holds digital assets needs to have an institutional key management solution that is built for the future, not for the past. And then the last thing I'll say is, like, I think another area that we seek to highlight, a trend that I've talked about here, is quantum. You know, quantum so far in this talk, and I think in a lot of the discourse, we've kind of invoked it as the boogeyman.

12:15它被講成會打破我們依賴的一切，一片末日。我不這麼想。量子力學其實可以當未來密碼學的地基。已經有量子亂數產生、量子金鑰分配這類例子。Project Eleven 和 StrongPoint 會在這些量子密碼方案能進生產時，把它們接進這套更廣的密碼敏捷解法。我們在做什麼、跟誰合作？特別是跟 Zcash Foundation。過去一年 Zcash 很值得看。加入 Project Eleven 之前我在隱私領域，看到這個生態成長很厲害。若你有追消息，Zcash 為後量子時期做了不少準備，新的 Ironwood pool 有後量子復原機制。It's the thing that's going to break everything we rely on and, oh, this is all doom and gloom. I don't think that's true at all. I think quantum mechanics can actually be the foundation for future forms of cryptography. There are already examples of this for quantum random number generation, things like quantum key distribution, and Project Eleven and StrongPoint specifically will integrate those quantum-based cryptographic schemes as they become production-ready as part of this broader crypto-agile solution. What are we doing? Who are we working with? We're working with the Zcash Foundation in particular. Zcash has been an incredible, you know, asset class or asset to watch over the last year. Prior to Project Eleven, I worked in the privacy space, and it's really been amazing to see the growth of that ecosystem. I also think Zcash, if you guys have followed the news, has, you know, done a lot of great work on preparing for the post-quantum era around, you know, the new Ironwood pool has a post-quantum recovery mechanism.

13:12遷移不只是換演算法

13:12我們很榮幸以 Zcash Foundation 為 StrongPoint 的設計夥伴，也跟生態裡其他人合作，投影片上有。總的來說，以後還會在的每條區塊鏈都必須有後量子密碼學。密碼學本身也必須是後量子的。我希望五年後我們甚至不再說「後量子密碼學」，那就只是密碼學。結束前再講幾點。這領域還在變，我們在為這個問題做研發。我想用這段講幾個談後量子遷移時容易漏掉的點。不只是密碼學。And so we're very proud to have the Zcash Foundation as design partners for StrongPoint. And we've worked with other folks in the ecosystem as well, as you can see up here. And overall, every blockchain that will be relevant in the future must have post-quantum cryptography. Cryptography in general must be post-quantum. Like five years from now, I hope we're never even saying the word post-quantum cryptography. It's all just going to be cryptography. A couple other highlights before I conclude here. This is an actively evolving area, and we are leaders in the R&D and researching and developing solutions for this problem specifically. And I just, I'm going to use this to kind of talk about, just make a couple points that I think a lot of people miss when talking about the post-quantum transition. It's not just the cryptography.

13:58我在台上一直在說密碼學、密碼學、密碼學。但錢包、託管、支付平台，最後都不只是密碼學。還有使用經驗：怎麼從同一組助記詞長出多個錢包？怎麼做門檻簽章？新的密碼方案要怎麼做多簽？這些東西怎麼接在一起？後量子時期，這些都得變。所以我們想做的不是研究論文，而是端到端的解法：從現在用古典密碼學保護客戶資產，接到後量子的未來。我們基本上認為量子電腦是好事，最終會幫忙保護數位資產，以及金融和其他類型的資訊，而且會很久。今天就到這裡。I've said cryptography, cryptography, cryptography the whole time I've been up on the stage. But look, at the end of the day, a wallet, a custody solution, a payments platform is more than the cryptography. It's the UX. It's how do I create multiple wallets off of the same seed phrase? You know, it's how do I set up a threshold scheme, and how do I do a multisig with this new different cryptographic scheme? And how do all these things fit together? All of this stuff has to ultimately transform in the post-quantum era. And so we are trying to build solutions that are not just research papers, but ultimately, end-to-end solutions to secure your clients' assets from the point where they're at now, secured by classical cryptography, into the post-quantum future. And like I said, we believe fundamentally that quantum computers are a good thing and will ultimately help secure digital assets and payment—or, excuse me, financial and other types of information, but, you know, far into the future. So that concludes my talk.

14:57謝謝各位來。再說一次 StrongPoint：本質上具備密碼敏捷的後量子數位資產託管。金融建立在信任上，區塊鏈的信任靠密碼學。有量子電腦要來、AI 正在加快並改寫資安，信任是我們最該守住的東西。非常感謝。Thank you guys for being here. And again, StrongPoint: post-quantum digital asset custody that is fundamentally crypto-agile at the core. You know, ultimately, finance is built on trust. That trust in blockchains is enabled by cryptography. And with StrongPoint, we're building what we believe is what the future of cryptography will look like. With quantum computers coming, with AI rapidly accelerating and changing the cybersecurity landscape, trust is the most important thing we have to preserve. Thank you very much.